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Comfort Delgro: Bullish Setup!
Author: stistocktrading | Publish date: Wed, 27 Nov 19:18 last: $1.995
Bullish Signal: Bullish flag in formation with retraced volume!
Entry price: $2 with volume exceeding 3.5 million by 12pm!
Stop loss: $1.96
Profit target: $2.07
Reward to risk ratio: 1.75
Post-results meeting noted a general optimism from management, while DB maintains their positive view on the sector and group. House has a Buy rating with $2.36 TP. Slight disappointment was expressed at the suggestion that operators contributed up to 50% of fare increases to the Public Transport Fund. But management reserved further comments pending more details from the authorities (which they expect in the coming weeks). DB estimates that the cumulative theoretical fare increase over 2012/13 could be up to c.8%. Assuming 50% of that increase is granted, this could imply c.2% annual fare increases over 2014/15 and would drive c.5% uplift to its 2014 NPAT for ComfortDelgro. Separately, overseas M& A will be pursued opportunistically, and DB note particular interest in Australia.
ComfortDelGro's core bus and taxi businesses boosted its net profit by 5.4 per cent to S$76.7 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2013, as group revenue grew 8.6 per cent to S$978.4 million.
The land transport giant's operating expenses climbed 9.2 per cent to S$856 million on increases in staff costs (up 16.1 per cent at S$321.8 million), contract services (up 9.4 per cent at S$126.3 million), energy costs (up 11.3 per cent at S$74.6 million) and repairs and maintenance (up 14 per cent at S$50.4 million).
Consequently, operating profit was 4.8 per cent higher at S$122.4 million.
Earnings per share in Q3 were 3.61 Singapore cents, up from 3.48 Singapore cents in the corresponding period a year ago.
Didnt see dividend declared. How much this round? Thks.
triphopper ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 08:03) Posted:
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Yes. Interim and Final dividend, total payout around 2-3% yield.
Does Comfort gives Div ? Looks like very stable business to invest in.
? Revenue increased by 8.6% to $978.4 million.
o Actual revenue increased by $89.3 million but this was partially eroded
by the negative effect of the weaker Australian Dollar and Sterling
Pound.
o The newly-acquired Metroline West in the United Kingdom contributed
maiden revenue of $54.2 million during the quarter.
? Operating profit increased by 4.8% to $122.4 million.
o Despite an increase in ridership, the core scheduled bus operations
under SBS Transit in Singapore continued to incur losses. For the
quarter just ended, it posted a loss of $0.9 million due to a drop in
average fare.
o Operating profit from overseas operations accounted for 51.1% of total
Group operating profit.
? Net profit increased by 5.4% to $76.7 million.
Octavia ( Date: 15-Jul-2013 09:50) Posted:
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After a non-deal roadshow in Tokyo, Nomura notes the main topics are the group's outlook in its Singapore operations, M& A and its growth strategy. Nomura maintains its BUY rating with TP of $2.19. On the Singapore operations, the management believes the Singapore bus business will turn for the better on the premise that the government could potentially shift towards a cost-plus model, eliminating revenue risk. The taxi segment has the potential of rental rates improvement on its fleet with the new Hyundai i40 launch in 2H13 and a potential in market share increase with the exit of smaller players.
The group's rail network will double its capacity through the Downtown Line and will help the group gain creditibility into rail operations overseas. On M& A, the group currently has a target to achieve 50–60% of its operating profits from overseas in 3–5 years. They seek to achieve IRR of 12–15%, non-dilutive margins and management control. Their preference lies in the taxi and bus segments and in markets such as China, UK and Australia where they see a strong commitment by governments to invest in infrastructure. Management believes that the key growth drivers going forward are 1) M& A, 2) commencement of Downtown Line and 3) a potential change to a cost-plus model for the Singapore bus segment.
According to a channelnewsasia report, commuters will not be able to pay for their cab fares using Visa cards from July 15. Maybank KE estimates that the termination of this payment mode would have minimal impact on the profits for its taxi business in Singapore. House estimates that cashless transactions contribute approximately 6% of profits for ComfortDelgro’s taxi business in Singapore and the majority of the contributions are from NETS, as market penetration for the use of Visa cards had been low. Maybank KE reiterate its positive view on ComfortDelGro, offers a defensive business exposure and currently trades below its historical valuation levels at only 15x FY14E P/E (long term average: 16x). House has a BUY rating with TP of $2.33.
Hi
This is my personal view on this stock.
Taxi operators except for Comfort have struggled to comply with new taxi availability standards implemented in Jan. The standards – measured half-yearly – were to address taxi under-utilisation. They include the need for operators to operate taxis for a min no. of peak hours and miles a day. Financial penalties and loss of fleet expansion rights follow failure to do so. Regulators are giving operators until the year end to comply, but smaller operators (eg. Prime, Smart taxi) will likely still fall short of standards given challenges they face in optimizing a smaller fleet. Rising fixed costs and the overhang from failure to meet the regulatory standards could spur a sector consolidation in the next 12-18mths. This could present an opportunity for Comfort to emerge as a strong contender for these assets, and would help drive company earnings growth. While Credit Suisse keeps its Market Weight rating and TP $2.10, the house highlights Comfort’s improved earnings profile from recent acquisitions.
Comfort Delgro: Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from neutral, based on earnings “accretion” arising from acquisitions of the UK and Australian bus operations made over the last three months. The house lifts EPS growth to ~9% for 2014e, and expects 2012-14e CAGR in excess of 4%, above the 2% CAGR over the 2007-12 period. The house has a new TP of $2.10 (from $1.85), based on 16x FY14e P/E. Notes the stock has fallen 14% over the past month and now represents better value.
ComfortDelgro: During a recent non-deal roadshow, OSK DMG highlights that CD's profit growth will stem from the UK market, with the recent London bus acquisition increasing its fleet by 41% to 1,694 buses. CD also sees opportunities in Australia as many bus operators there are still state-run. Investors expressed concerns on CD’s overly conservative balance sheet and requested a higher payout ratio, whereby the company stressed that it requires a robust balance sheet to support future M&A activities but does not rule out lifting its future payout ratio should its cash flow strengthen further. CD maintains that there are no changes to its fundamentals despite the selldown by Singapore Labour Foundation of its CD stake, as SLF had always been a passive stakeholder with one non-executive board seat. DMG think SLF, which has a broad portfolio of investments that it reviews and rebalances on an ongoing basis, may have regarded this period as an opportunistic time to exit the company. DMG maintains its BUY rating, with TP of $2.25.
The LTA recently re-iterated the possibility of introducing competition in the bus services industry. However, as with before, OCBC do not anticipate any changes to the operating landscape in the mid-term unless the government decides how it wants to strike a balance between a free-market and government-assisted model.
For the near-term, the street is awaiting the recommendations from the fare review committee and has already factored in some level of increase. That said, any further delays from this committee could lead to continued losses for both transport operators and even asset impairments for SMRT.
OCBC downgrade the sector to NEUTRAL in light of this possibility but do not anticipate further deterioration in the share prices for both ComfortDelgro and SMRT at this juncture. Maintain its ratings on both SMRT (HOLD with TP of $1.45) and ComfortDelgro (HOLD with TP of $1.95) although OCBC favour the latter for its more attractive overseas ventures.
OSK DMG are not concerned by the sell-down as fundamentals remain strong. Maintain BUY and TP of SGD2.25.
...Married Deal: Vol: 250 Value: $480.000 ie $1.920/share Prev Close: $1.925...
This counter gave an early indication this morning that market is heading for correction...
SLF is a private org. so its accounts are private as of many private firms here.
many SMEs have corporate accounts with brokerage housese.
any organization with money most likely will hv a portfolio, if not what to do with such a big sum of money?
merlin_magic ( Date: 23-May-2013 10:51) Posted:
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anyway, it is not a good time to buy any stocks now...valuation is at all time high..federal reserve is pulling back liquidity...high time for a dip....
They like to switch their portfolio out of Singapore.
yeah....actually I didn't know that Singapore Labor Foundation also has its own portfolio...I am only aware of GIC and Temasek...Something new...What other agencies have its own investment portfolio?