User Research/Opinions   

Elections effect

FYI: Watch luzhou it's oredi $1.07cts, tested $1.13cts (+.07cts)disclamer: usual term applied, not an inducement to trade.

 

Hi prettyLisa, Hope this info is of some help to U & other. Dow down last wk, China related & a few good IPO stocks got gd thing coming, had given very encourging results. Mon can C some profit take w/SGX STI index on a down side, some even predicted all red doomday. Me think is not, for 100 ++ china stocks is looking to Shanghai for it CUE, in fact Shanghai index rose ++ 3%, so what is down in DOW maybe what is up for other. To those who's vested, acted & voted with their $$$, it happened last week oredi. Happy reading & hv a nice weekend(Sun).

 

Quote from ST paper. May 13, 2005 (Sat). An indication of what is coming, I am confident about coming week on China Listed stocks in SGX, just eg why co?s just one day of order taking for it IPO worth $15.4 billion (US$9.8 bil), by BOC (Bank of China) in HK has attracted 2 to 3 time it IPO offer, shares that earmarked for institutional investors. Sources from Reuters Oso last year China construction bank successfully raised US$9.23 bil in it IPO. Sources from Financial Times. It?s institutional investors who is hungry for such a blue chip stocks that happen in HK, for d same reason, it can happen here, a matter of time, starting from this 15-5-06 (Mon). Disclaimer, usual term applied, not an indication to trade, if u must (do your home work 1st) and within your mean.

 

Hi prettylisa, I mentioned earler a DBS study which showed that the impact of elections on the market is insignificant and inconclusive. Pls read my post dated 24 Apr. I implied that one shouldn't buy just because of the elections.

 

thank you teeth53! I have stayed away from the market for the last 2 weeks because of the elections.

 

Hi PrettyLisa, FYI: election after effect is seem settled nicely, US interest rate hike oso settled liao, newly IPO China listed, the going seem v good, so next week, nothing to stop looking at SGX China listed stocks moving forward/upward, but be selective, moving along hv some profit, take some profit, watch Luzhou, it's $1/-

 

Notice last mon(8Apr), there's a short blast by non China stock, seem chenogg.. abit, today(Wed-10Apr)w/help fm China related, esp Penny stocks goes seem going to see $1/- cheongg..watch Luzhou closly

 

Fed was expected to raise US interest rates, US central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to announce its latest decision on monetary policy later this evening. Economists predicted Federal funds rate by .25pt to 5.0%. Lucky got some good China 2nd liner (penny) stock to get thing going, including DMX Tech & Datacraft, SIA is down -$0.70cts to $14.10cts.

 

US $$ slip lower, so less money coming in, look to China, China related stock listed in SGX not keen to move up too much at this moment (profit taking at this moment) except good IPO stocks & some 2nd liner stocks, Data Craft at this moment look good. FYI: what goes up must come down.

 

US is looking to whether to hike it interest rate or not, China had increase it interest rate & is oso been pressure to increase in Yuan value to cool it economic, SIA profit down, all companies, esp transportation is v v concern about oil px hike, is effecting own daily life.

 

hello teeth53, why do you think things will still be going down this week?

 

Election over liao, PaP got 66.6%, so it's luck,luck,luck in hokkien word. The fun thing (Cheongg..) is counted in oredi B4 election, so not so fun at all when thing is going down this week. hv to hv patient going into a next week to read d mkt.

 

whether its elections mandate or strong US and Asian markets, it seems that profit taking is in place today. Singtel also down by 3 cents. STI down by about 15 points or so.

 

I wouldn't say that STI surged today because of the strong mandate PAP got. It's more due to the strong US and Asian markets. A >70% margin would be a strong mandate. 66.6% is normal.

 

wah... the market really surge today. STI up by more than 30 points just now. this signifies the huge sigh of relief at the end of the elections.

 

even though past studies show that the effect of elections is insignificant, I think it might have at least a slight effect this time round. Eg.. for the first time in history, the PAP wasn't returned to power on Nomination Day. I think a few people are adopting a wait and see approach. I am one of them.

 

As i think & tot thing over this election result say is 65% to 75% winning, that is nomal-rite, so stock can Cheongg...D funny thing is, it may not, d after effect is counted in oredi, but then maybe a week or two weeks later, d after effect wary off, then oni stocks will....it may be China related stock to run 1st or either way.

 

A DBS study shows that the impact of elections on the market is insignificant and inconclusive. This is based on conclusions drawn from the past 4 elections (1988, 1991, 1997 and 2001). On average, STI experienced a marginal decrease of 0.6228 points per day during the election periods (from announcement to post-voting day). The standard deviation of the STI data during the election periods is 1.743 and this large standard deviation indicates that the changes of the STI are not statistically significant. However, a wide margin victory for the ruling government could spark an encore of the post-election rally in Nov '01 when PAP won 75.3% of total votes.

 

Closed-ST Index: 2,603.45 (+19.72pt) Volume:1,638.7 Million traded. Consider how thin is thin?? & let share it w/us.

 

I think from now till the elections are over, the market volume would be quite thin. maybe people are waiting to see what would happen... what do you all think?