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After calculated from the announcement and last qtr........Results are bad.......
Avoid.....from now.....
waited for the shortists last fri, but they didn't show up...hope to see them tomoro.
before i will buy i will do lots of research. but then i buy so little ... why care the time spent to research may be more expensive than profits....
hyruga ( Date: 06-Nov-2011 15:20) Posted:
Its NAV may keep falling.
Shipping is not like reit. You need money to maintain the ship and you hardly get any rentals in return.
JustinQuek ( Date: 06-Nov-2011 02:39) Posted:
| buying this below 1 dollars for its NAV |
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tomoro @ $1?...will depend whether the shortists will come in again... like today
Price trading sideways since Aug and seems making a Flag formation. Be cautious as this pattern calls for a trend continuation...
Abv purely TA ok...
$1 coming
Break down to 90Cents if $1 is broken
ANY TA guy wanna share his view on NOL's likely short-term price direction ?
Me not vested yet
NOL & YZJ so very low volume ? No BBs ?
wah, if history is to repeat, many, many counters will also follow NOL 'up lorry' u know!!!
Its NAV may keep falling.
Shipping is not like reit. You need money to maintain the ship and you hardly get any rentals in return.
JustinQuek ( Date: 06-Nov-2011 02:39) Posted:
| buying this below 1 dollars for its NAV |
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History may repeat. NOL was 50 cents then..
adobepie ( Date: 06-Nov-2011 09:33) Posted:
so many buyers waiting at 1.05...how to go below $1???
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so many buyers waiting at 1.05...how to go below $1???
buying this below 1 dollars for its NAV
LOL!Just don't anyhow short. Unless U put a long short. New123 ( Date: 05-Nov-2011 20:42) Posted:
| looks like a good one to short..if breakdown $1.055 may go down to test 98 cents.. |
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looks like a good one to short..if breakdown $1.055 may go down to test 98 cents..
Neptune Orient Lines: Worse than expected 3Q11 results
Weaker than expected 3Q11 results short peak season was primary
reason.
Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) last night reported its 3Q11 financial
results. Although revenue increased by 2.9% QoQ, net losses widened to
US$91.1m, from US$57.0m in 2Q11. Consequently, NOL recorded a net
loss of US$157.8m in 9M11, or 14% higher than our previous forecasted
net loss for full year FY11. As discussed in our previous report, shipping
customers this year are holding back on shipments due to uncertain
economic conditions. Due to this lack of demand, the traditional peak
shipping which typically happens in 3Q failed to materialise this quarter.
Since container freight rates continued to be under pressure due to industry
oversupply, we have correspondingly lowered our FY11 and FY12 forecasts.
Double whammy - low freight rates and high bunker fuel prices.
NOL's worse than expected net loss, despite a 6.9% volume growth in
3Q11 to 699,700 FEUs, was partly contributed by weak freight rates, as a
result of continued downward pricing pressure and a short period of peak
season surcharges (see Exhibit 2). NOL's average revenue per FEU (ARPF)
was down 18.6% YoY in 3Q11. Weak freight rates were especially evident
in the Europe trade lanes, which saw ARPF fall 24.9% YoY. However, bunker
fuel prices remained high despite a weak shipping environment. Bloomberg's
380 Centistoke Bunker Fuel Spot Price Singapore Index in 3Q11 averaged
661 points, or 48.9% higher than a year ago (see Exhibit 3).
Logistics segment fared much better but is too small to be significant.
NOL's logistics revenue in 3Q11 grew 10.3% YoY to US$333m and
contributed a positive EBIT of US$16m. The EBIT margin of 4.8% was
higher than the 3.8% recorded in 2Q11. This sequential margin improvement
was mainly due to business growth and active cost management. For
example, NOL's logistics segment recorded strong revenue growth in the
Americas, benefiting from its expansion into US intermodal logistics and
higher demand from the automotive sector.
Retain fair value of $1.02 and downgrade to SELL. Given the glut of
supply in container shipping and bunker fuel prices not falling, we retain
our lower-than-consensus fair value estimate of NOL at $1.02 per share,
which is 10.5% lower than the current price, and downgrade NOL to
SELL.(Eric Teo)
Kind of risky to Buy NOL for contra.
The strong market sentiment is your friend now, just take profit while you are ahead.
NOL is a weak stock afterall.
adobepie ( Date: 02-Nov-2011 22:24) Posted:
| bought at 1.08....hope to contra off next week at 1.15 |
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bought at 1.08....hope to contra off next week at 1.15
DBS
says NOL fully valued, price target S$1.05/shr 2.55 pm BUSINESS TIMES
November 1, 2011, 2.55 pm (Singapore time)
DBS says NOL fully
valued, price target S$1.05/shr
By YEO AIQI
DBS Group Research said on
Tuesday that Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) shares remained fully valued and pegged
a price target of S$1.05 a share for
the container shipping group.
The research house said
NOL's net loss of US$91m in third quarter (3Q) was in line with its estimates.
Average freight rates for
3Q fell 19 per cent from a year ago and remained flat quarter-on-quarter. Low
freight rates coupled with high fuel costs dragged down the company's
profitability.
NOL's balance sheet is
also looking increasingly stretched. It has incurred more than US$1.2 billion
in capex YTD in FY11, and will need to invest similar amounts in FY12/13 to
finance its existing orderbook of 34 new vessels. Net gearing level has also
increased to 0.56x at end-3Q11 from 0.12x at end-FY10, and if losses
continue,could reach unsustainable levels or even lead to a cash call by the
end of FY12.
Hence, DBS's analyst Suvro
Sarkar remains pessimistic on the container liners' outlook in the near term.
'Unless we see a
coordinated effort by the liners to lay up capacity to the tune of at least 5-6
per cent of fleet or clear signs of inventory restocking activities in the US,
we are unlikely to call for a bottom. We expect NOL to remain in the red in
FY12/13,' Mr Sarkar added.
Neptune Orient Lines (NOL SP, N03) – SELL
Technical SELL with a target of S$0.905, resistance $1.08. This stock is likely to break down from consolidation…
From : UOB Kay Hian
