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Like that rise the price will soon overtake COSCO.
do not refer to analyst's report if it is more than 2 weeks old. They are always quick to downgrade or upgrade. Downgrade can be as much as more than a dollar for certain counters in a span of a month.
This Target Price make me scare and throw, now regret !!! Dont trust all this TP, always terbalik !!!
katak88 ( Date: 26-Feb-2009 12:27) Posted:
DBS Group Research . Equity 25 Feb 2009
Singapore Company Focus
Yangzijiang
FULLY VALUED S$0.41 STI : 1,614.44
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.32 (Prev S$ 0.34)
Reason for Report : FY08 Results
Potential Catalyst: Industry turnaround
Analyst
Pei Hwa Ho +65 6398 7968
PeiHwa@dbsvickers.com
Janice Chua +65 6398 7954
janicechua@dbsvickers.com
Hardships building up
Yangzijiang’s FY08 earnings grew 82% yoy to RMB1.6bn on topline growth of 91% yoy. The bottomline fell short of our estimate by 5% due to provision of RMB200m. Although the Chinese government’s stimulus policy to support the shipbuilding sector should bring some light to the industry, the risks of order cancellation/delays and default risk amidst depressed freight rates and credit crunch remain high. We trim our estimates by 5% and 10% for FY09 and FY10 respectively, on account of higher order cancellation / delay and potential provisions.
4Q08 gross margin shrunk by 10ppt qoq to 13% due to provisions of Rmb200m.
In view of the deteriorating conditions for shipping industry, Yangzijiang increased its provision for potential cost variation to 8% of contract prices, from 0.5% previously. The cost variation is to account for unexpected additional cost such as doubtful debt, price discount to shipowners and cost over-run for projects under construction. The provision may be reverted upon completion of the projects if the actual total cost incurred is less than budgeted cost.
Cancellations/delays underway.
Despite the Chinese government’s efforts to stimulate the shiipbuilding sector, the challenges of cancellation / delay and default risk amidst depressed freight rates and credit crunch will cap share price performance. Yangzijiang now expects to stretch its orderbook delivery over a longer period of 4.0 years, vs 3.5 years previously, as requests for order rescheduling are flowing in.
Maintain Fully Valued; TP reduced to S$0.32.
We trim our estimates by 5% and 10% for FY09 and FY10 respectively, as we now expect order cancellation / delay of 25% vs 15% previously, as well as raise the provision levels in FY09-FY10. Our TP is reduced to S$0.32 based on 3x revised FY09 earnings. Although we like YZJ’s proven execution track record, we see downside risk to current share price in anticipation of negative newsflow hitting the industry. Maintain fully valued.
Maintain Fully Valued. TP reduced to S$0.32. |
|
broken resistance level...trending upwards.
oceanblue ( Date: 03-Jun-2009 15:30) Posted:
| Appear in the top volume list now. Moving up? |
|
Appear in the top volume list now. Moving up?
Announcement today at SGX website..(Not an inducement to trade )
Yangzijiang steaming ahead with timely delivery of 11 vessels YTD worth US$445.9 million and 201,053 CGT capacity
Main focus on project execution to ensure timely delivery of vessels with uncompromising quality standards
Strongly committed towards working with ship owners by accommodating requests to change vessel type
Order book now stands at US$6.43 billion comprising 145 vessels with delivery schedule till 2012
Anyone comment on this
So lucky, just sell off at $0.495...
I dont want to hold till monday.
I just buy in this morning @ $0.475.
Now wait till $0.495 and sell off.
anyone here buying yangzijiang today?
Will the share price go up twm?
Net Profit Attributable to Equity Holders RMB'000
1Q'09 RMB483,271 vs 1Q'08 RMB371,268 +30.1%
Date & Time of Broadcast 29-Apr-2009 17:20:25
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_784E284E8142F49A482575A7002CF9E3/$file/FinancialStatement.pdf?openelement
can someone explain why UBS so 'garang'????
$1.30 is too high. How many times book value?
| UBS' S$1.30 target for Yangzijiang is 3 times other brokers' consensus |
| Written by Sim Kih |
| Thursday, 26 February 2009 |
Yangzijiang's FY08 analyst briefing held at the Fullerton Hotel on Tue morning (24 Feb). Photo by Sim Kih.
UBS HAS MAINTAINED its “buy” call on Yangzijiang after the leading Chinese shipyard announced FY08 net earnings jumped 82% year-on-year to Rmb 1.6 billion.
The management also highlighted the possibility of profit margin improvement.
Order cancellation has affected some other SGX-listed Chinese yards like Cosco and JES, yet Yangzijiang has so far been pleasantly unscathed.
Is the UBS “buy” call overly optimistic, and are other brokers right that the stock is fully valued?
| Report Date |
Broker
|
Call |
Target Price |
| 24 Feb 2009 |
UBS
|
Buy
|
S$1.30 |
| 24 Feb 2009 |
Nomura |
Reduce |
37 cents |
| 25 Feb 2009 |
DBS Vickers |
Fully Valued |
32 cents |
| 25 Feb 2009 |
HSBC |
Neutral |
44 cents |
How is government action helping the marine transportation industry in China?
Read what the management discussed at its FY08 analyst briefing: |
YANGZIJIANG: Why no cancellation of dry bulk orders?
http://www.nextinsight.com.sg/content/view/935/60/
Q&A between chairman & analysts at Fullerton Hotel covered by
www.nextinsight.com.sg
MFT down target price from 1.30 to 0.43 !! haha... they said fom A to Z...up to u to believe !
katak88 ( Date: 26-Feb-2009 12:12) Posted:
|
The most bullish report is by UBS Global Equity Research. Take 1/3 of the Target price of S$1.30 give you $0.43 which is just below current market price of $0.42 clolsing price for 25 Feb 2009.
UBS Investment Research
First Read: Yangzijiang
Good 08 results on solid exectution
�� 2008 profit in line with UBSe and consensus
YZJ reported NPAT of Rmb1,580m (+82%YoY) and revenue of Rmb7,359m (+91%YoY) for 2008. Both are largely in line with UBS estimates (-5% and 3% above consensus, respectively). Note YZJ’s GM fell to 18.5% in 08 from 23.0% in 07, mainly due to the margin contraction to 12.7% in Q408 (19.9% in Q407), as it raised provision for potential cost variation to 8% of contract price from 0.5%.
�� A certain guidance during the uncertain time
YZJ’s mgmt guided the company would stick to its original delivery schedule of 40 vessel in 2009, though it could provide 3-6mo berthing time upon receiving the full payment and if required by ship owners. YZJ has not yet encountered order cancellation, and will proactively co-work with its customers to avoid or reduce such risk down the road.
�� Benefits from govt support still difficult to quantify
The recently announced industry revitalization plan by China govt would benefit two large state-owned shipbuilding giant, CSSC and CISC, as well as some selected names such as YZJ, one of three private yards in Jiangsu named. With 27 vessels of 850k DWT delivered in 08, YZJ was ranked 6th in China with an orderbook of 155 vessels of US$6.9bn. However, it is difficult to quantify the policy benefits, as most are guideline only as of now.
�� Valuation: maintain Buy, PTS$1.30
We will review our forecast following the results. We maintain our Buy rating and 12-month price target of S$1.30, based on 2.5x 2009E book value.
|
|
DBS Group Research . Equity 25 Feb 2009
Singapore Company Focus
Yangzijiang
FULLY VALUED S$0.41 STI : 1,614.44
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.32 (Prev S$ 0.34)
Reason for Report : FY08 Results
Potential Catalyst: Industry turnaround
Analyst
Pei Hwa Ho +65 6398 7968
PeiHwa@dbsvickers.com
Janice Chua +65 6398 7954
janicechua@dbsvickers.com
Hardships building up
Yangzijiang’s FY08 earnings grew 82% yoy to RMB1.6bn on topline growth of 91% yoy. The bottomline fell short of our estimate by 5% due to provision of RMB200m. Although the Chinese government’s stimulus policy to support the shipbuilding sector should bring some light to the industry, the risks of order cancellation/delays and default risk amidst depressed freight rates and credit crunch remain high. We trim our estimates by 5% and 10% for FY09 and FY10 respectively, on account of higher order cancellation / delay and potential provisions.
4Q08 gross margin shrunk by 10ppt qoq to 13% due to provisions of Rmb200m.
In view of the deteriorating conditions for shipping industry, Yangzijiang increased its provision for potential cost variation to 8% of contract prices, from 0.5% previously. The cost variation is to account for unexpected additional cost such as doubtful debt, price discount to shipowners and cost over-run for projects under construction. The provision may be reverted upon completion of the projects if the actual total cost incurred is less than budgeted cost.
Cancellations/delays underway.
Despite the Chinese government’s efforts to stimulate the shiipbuilding sector, the challenges of cancellation / delay and default risk amidst depressed freight rates and credit crunch will cap share price performance. Yangzijiang now expects to stretch its orderbook delivery over a longer period of 4.0 years, vs 3.5 years previously, as requests for order rescheduling are flowing in.
Maintain Fully Valued; TP reduced to S$0.32.
We trim our estimates by 5% and 10% for FY09 and FY10 respectively, as we now expect order cancellation / delay of 25% vs 15% previously, as well as raise the provision levels in FY09-FY10. Our TP is reduced to S$0.32 based on 3x revised FY09 earnings. Although we like YZJ’s proven execution track record, we see downside risk to current share price in anticipation of negative newsflow hitting the industry. Maintain fully valued.
Maintain Fully Valued. TP reduced to S$0.32.
The most bullish report is by UBS Global Equity Research. Take 1/3 of the Target price of S$1.30 give you $0.43 which is just below current market price of $0.42 clolsing price for 25 Feb 2009.
UBS Investment Research
First Read: Yangzijiang
Good 08 results on solid exectution
��
2008 profit in line with UBSe and consensus
YZJ reported NPAT of Rmb1,580m (+82%YoY) and revenue of Rmb7,359m (+91%YoY) for 2008. Both are largely in line with UBS estimates (-5% and 3% above consensus, respectively). Note YZJ’s GM fell to 18.5% in 08 from 23.0% in 07, mainly due to the margin contraction to 12.7% in Q408 (19.9% in Q407), as it raised provision for potential cost variation to 8% of contract price from 0.5%.
��
A certain guidance during the uncertain time
YZJ’s mgmt guided the company would stick to its original delivery schedule of 40 vessel in 2009, though it could provide 3-6mo berthing time upon receiving the full payment and if required by ship owners. YZJ has not yet encountered order cancellation, and will proactively co-work with its customers to avoid or reduce such risk down the road.
��
Benefits from govt support still difficult to quantify
The recently announced industry revitalization plan by China govt would benefit two large state-owned shipbuilding giant, CSSC and CISC, as well as some selected names such as YZJ, one of three private yards in Jiangsu named. With 27 vessels of 850k DWT delivered in 08, YZJ was ranked 6th in China with an orderbook of 155 vessels of US$6.9bn. However, it is difficult to quantify the policy benefits, as most are guideline only as of now.
��
Valuation: maintain Buy, PTS$1.30
We will review our forecast following the results. We maintain our Buy rating and 12-month price target of S$1.30, based on 2.5x 2009E book value.
HSBC Global Research
25 February 2009
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Maintain Neutral (V), but raise target price to SGD0.44 from SGD0.35; lowering 2009/10e EPS after 2008 results
��
Reported 2008 EPS better than expected on non-operating income and gains
�� Higher contract price provisions indicates value of order book may be declining – potential earnings risk
�� Cutting 2009/10e EPS; raising target to SGD0.44 from SGD0.35 on slightly higher multiple assumption, maintain Neutral (V)
http://www.remisiers.org/research//Yangzijiang%20-%20HSBC%20(tgt%20$0.44)%2025feb09.pdf
