Trading Techniques   

Investment Clock

LOoks like a long evening ahead yeah? LOL!

 

Yeah, I'll agree that we're probably at 6-7. From URA, the private property price has been dropping for 2 quarters. And the falling interest rate is everywhere.

So....another year or two == rock bottom? Quite probably.

 

This is one great post I like very much.

If only one can know the trend beforehand... hehehe..  

alfretztay      ( Date: 21-Jan-2008 22:04) Posted: "When markets are on the uptrend : buy low, sell high and then buy high, sell higher. On the other hand, when markets are on the downtrend : sell high, buy low and then sell low, buy lower." -- crazy_fave.

 

I agree that it is better to invest in businesses with long term growth and competitive potential. If one is risk adverse, the 'STI ETF' and recently to be introduced 'DBS Singapore STI ETF' are good buys to keep for long term. Afterall, these ETFs track the STI and do we think the STI is on a continuous downtrend in the next few decades? I don't think so. If the STI is trending downwards for the long term, Singapore's economy is going to be in 'very deep shit' in the next few decades. Therefore, though I cannot predict the future of Singapore's economy, I can safely assume that Singapore government will not allow its economy to suffer forever. So, one can safely park money into STI ETF for the long term to be 99.99999% profitable. Nothing is perfect in this world.....still got 0.00000001% of losing one's invested capital in this counter.

Livermore      ( Date: 16-Oct-2007 12:33) Posted: It is better to focus on stocks with long term potential than on investment cycles which may not be applicable. Circumstances in the world have changed.Though bad market sentiments might affect all stocks, the ones with long term potential will eventualy move up.

 

i remember reading this from Kilroy  . 

thought it is good to read again and see what time is this, may be 6-7 o'clock? 

 

"When markets are on the uptrend : buy low, sell high and then buy high, sell higher. On the other hand, when markets are on the downtrend : sell high, buy low and then sell low, buy lower." -- crazy_fave.

 

What is the time Mr.Wolf?

 

Great question LesBleus !  I dont expect the events to be sequential and I do expect some events to even overlaps each other as well.  I guess my take away from the lesson which I learnt is to understand where we are and more importantly know whats ahead and what to anticipate to allow us to make good investment decision.

 

Great Stuff!

Thanks KiLrOy! Do continue to share with us your investment insights.

Just wondering though, what if the different symptons occur at the same time? Can we really tell which hand of the hour we are in in such situations?

 

The instructor added - Some years, the investment clock has more then 60 mins to make an hour some years, it has less.  I think we can his drift.

 

Keep investment summarised in just 2 words - simple and focus

 

97 Asian economic crisis has nothing do to with US. When US dot com bubble pops, it just stall our recovery. I think our surrounding countries have more effect on us than the US. Then again, our economy has more to do with us. So use the clock on us. Forget other nations. Look at the real estate. It's moved up too crazily and too quickly. What trigger this? I think it?s the two IRs and a target of 6.5 million populations.

 

We've to give credit to KiLrOy for the post though I would agree with Livermore that value investors shouldn't look too much into the clock..... it's more for "opportunist" investor who keep his $ away from the market most of the time and only commit it in a short-term basis during the down-up cycle.

 

It is better to focus on stocks with long term potential than on investment cycles which may not be applicable. Circumstances in the world have changed.Though bad market sentiments might affect all stocks, the ones with long term potential will eventualy move up. 

 

With S'pore diversifying its economy and rise of China/India, has our economy decoupled from the US arena, ie STI is no longer strongly correlated with the DOW but rather greater correlation with China/India instead?

 

hey, thanks for the welcome, kilroy. jacktherippers, do i know you? *bemused*

 

Thanks, Kilroy for sharing on the investment clock.

 

a ticking time bomb, the stock market, just like bi polar depression right, elfinchilde?? hee hee

 

welcome back~ :)

 

yah. the clock's kinda messed up now, like a Dali, perhaps... and hey, china's still growing.

ok, gonna zzz. market's peaking soon. range bound for now. need to break 3,900 convincingly. locked in my blues already. nites all!