Super Group   

Super Coffee

Maybe Macquarie likes to drink coffee much like me.   I will wait for their tp to materialize before selling, lor.

 

Macquarie upgrades to O/p, TP $4.40, citing that its time for a pick-me-up. Stock has corrected far too much after posting a poor 3Q result. Poor 3Q but not a sign of structural deterioration Competitive advantages in Myanmar intact New branded consumer market, China, another growth avenue. Risk reward skewed to the upside, op. margins (+10% input costs) implies 5% downside vs. bull case, +43%. Trading at 18x PER 2014E vs 25x for it peers, believe the stock offers an attractive risk-reward pay-off.

 

Trade with care.  OCBC downgrade it to 2.50 only

WanSiTong      ( Date: 18-Nov-2013 14:31) Posted: Super Group/Singapore ST: the downside prevails as long as 3.9 is resistance Trading Central | 2013-11-18 00:09:00 The MACD is below its signal line and negative. 3.9 is our pivot point. Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 3.9 is resistance. Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 3.9 would call for 4.3 and 4.55. Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the share stands below its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 4.07 and 4.2). Supports and resistances: 4.3 * 3.9 ** 3.74 3.5 last 3.02 2.79 ** 2.55 * Copyr

 

Super Group/Singapore ST: the downside prevails as long as 3.9 is resistance Trading Central | 2013-11-18 00:09:00 The MACD is below its signal line and negative. 3.9 is our pivot point. Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 3.9 is resistance. Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 3.9 would call for 4.3 and 4.55. Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the share stands below its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 4.07 and 4.2). Supports and resistances: 4.3 * 3.9 ** 3.74 3.5 last 3.02 2.79 ** 2.55 * Copyr

 

When danger for some may mean an opportunity for personal, right? But this is surprisingly quiet now..

 

Techically bearish for Super Group.

http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/super-group/super-group-is-the-recent-sell-off-a-surprise/

 

 

Yea.. If that's the case, no need to study liao..and tell your children to throw away all their books :p

WanSiTong      ( Date: 16-Nov-2013 23:21) Posted: Looks like you are more pro than those professional valuers ............ Siwomp      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 14:51) Posted: Valuation is subjective.... it is as accurrate as the available datas and experience of the person/s.  In any case, I belive the NAV at current mkt rate would be higher.  The institutions will know since  they have armies of professionals.

 

Don't any how chiong........ trade with care.......... DYODD..... Huat arh.........

WanSiTong      ( Date: 16-Nov-2013 23:36) Posted: Some extracts from the analysts reports: * super group had a 'rare miss" , said CIMB's Mr Ng, with 17% dip in quarterly profit on higher expenses. Rising competition, higher costs, margin pressures and currency fluctuations could hurt earning in the consumer space. *UOBKH noted that the Company 's near term prospects could be hampered by difficult operating conditions in markets such as Myanmar and the Phillippines

 

Some extracts from the analysts reports:

* super group had a 'rare miss" , said CIMB's Mr Ng, with 17% dip in quarterly profit on higher expenses. Rising competition, higher costs, margin pressures and currency fluctuations could hurt earning in the consumer space.

*UOBKH noted that the Company 's near term prospects could be hampered by difficult operating conditions in markets such as Myanmar and the Phillippines

 

Looks like you are more pro than those professional valuers ............

Siwomp      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 14:51) Posted: Valuation is subjective.... it is as accurrate as the available datas and experience of the person/s.  In any case, I belive the NAV at current mkt rate would be higher.  The institutions will know since  they have armies of professionals.  WanSiTong      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 14:16) Posted: Properties should be stated at fair value based on valuations performed by  independent professional valuers . The fair value are based on market value. The valuation should be done on the financial reports cut off date, ie Balance Sheet date. If not, it should close to Balance Sheet date

 

and to demonstrate this point, Just see how the different agencies estimate Mr Goi's worth...... very differently. 

Siwomp      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 14:51) Posted: Valuation is subjective.... it is as accurrate as the available datas and experience of the person/s.  In any case, I belive the NAV at current mkt rate would be higher.  The institutions will know since  they have armies of professionals.  WanSiTong      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 14:16) Posted: Properties should be stated at fair value based on valuations performed by  independent professional valuers . The fair value are based on market value. The valuation should be done on the financial reports cut off date, ie Balance Sheet date. If not, it should close to Balance Sheet date

 

Thought the 2 parts of the argument seems forcefully gelled together, I guess coffee demand will spike at extreme times ya? Hahaha!

Within an hour the price dropped by 5cts, wow. So this is how volatile counters work daily.. It's really new to me.

 

We share and learn together. 

But like what Bro Tomique say, there is a political risk in the longer term when the composition of the govt changes and as the country becomes more open, competitions. Advantage is the late comer wil need to pay a high price for land...getting expensive by the day and that as a country move up the Economic ladder, people tends to drink more coffee......(due to stress?...haha...)

bookwormy      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 11:10) Posted: Thanks for patiently writing down your train of thoughts! Looks like I'll be reading up more in the near term. Hahaha Siwomp      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 10:56) Posted: That's why prices rises from sub $1 to $4 plus.  Was vested at $1+ and sold.  Bot some again this weak for techical rebound as I think it was over-sold,.....finally decided(triggered)  to buy when Bro Ace declared that he is not going to short round 3 (sign of strength).....since then it's a hour by hour decision to hold or sell base on MD an other indicators....Dyodd.  What gives me confidence to hold and buy: 1) Technical rebound.... (if I fully base on the F-ratio thingy, I should be selling  now) 2) Institutional Stock,  likely to have   yr-end window dressing by funds especially after falling 30%. 3) Solid FA and cash generation. 4) Sam's counter. IMO.......

 

Thanks for patiently writing down your train of thoughts! Looks like I'll be reading up more in the near term. Hahaha

Siwomp      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 10:56) Posted: That's why prices rises from sub $1 to $4 plus.  Was vested at $1+ and sold.  Bot some again this weak for techical rebound as I think it was over-sold,.....finally decided(triggered)  to buy when Bro Ace declared that he is not going to short round 3 (sign of strength).....since then it's a hour by hour decision to hold or sell base on MD an other indicators....Dyodd.  What gives me confidence to hold and buy: 1) Technical rebound.... (if I fully base on the F-ratio thingy, I should be selling  now) 2) Institutional Stock,  likely to have   yr-end window dressing by funds especially after falling 30%. 3) Solid FA and cash generation. 4) Sam's counter. IMO........ bookwormy      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 10:03) Posted: Looks pretty impressive. Is this the right time to enter? With all that fluctuation I can't tell since I'm a super small time newbie around here, any advice from the masters and veterans?

 

Tot he say give?  haha...... Think I go buy direct from the plantation.....lol

banana      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 10:09) Posted: Aysaibey will sell u some Siwomp      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 09:52) Posted: You are the Buffet type of investor.... really going to the ground literally...impressed

 

That's why prices rises from sub $1 to $4 plus.  Was vested at $1+ and sold.  Bot some again this weak for techical rebound as I think it was over-sold,.....finally decided(triggered)  to buy when Bro Ace declared that he is not going to short round 3 (sign of strength).....since then it's a hour by hour decision to hold or sell base on MD an other indicators....Dyodd. 

What gives me confidence to hold and buy:

1) Technical rebound.... (if I fully base on the F-ratio thingy, I should be selling  now)

2) Institutional Stock,  likely to have   yr-end window dressing by funds especially after falling 30%.

3) Solid FA and cash generation.

4) Sam's counter.

IMO........

bookwormy      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 10:03) Posted: Looks pretty impressive. Is this the right time to enter? With all that fluctuation I can't tell since I'm a super small time newbie around here, any advice from the masters and veterans?

 

Aysaibey will sell u some

Siwomp      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 09:52) Posted: You are the Buffet type of investor.... really going to the ground literally...impressed. aysaibey      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 23:42) Posted: I visited Super Coffee Farm in Pyinoowin in Burma. How they got a permit to plant there is amazing..... means Super connections. Means their raw material costs is soooo low.Arabica beans... whats more. 1 bag 10kg for S $2 .  Is that in the NAV? Goodwill, conections?  I have got some at home. Want some.

 

Well connected with the right people.   Connection is good.   But the risk is still there when Myanmar becomes more politically changed in the years ahead.   Thought many questions might be asked when generals give way to civilian administrators.

 

Looks pretty impressive. Is this the right time to enter? With all that fluctuation I can't tell since I'm a super small time newbie around here, any advice from the masters and veterans?

 

You are the Buffet type of investor.... really going to the ground literally...impressed.

aysaibey      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 23:42) Posted: I visited Super Coffee Farm in Pyinoowin in Burma. How they got a permit to plant there is amazing..... means Super connections. Means their raw material costs is soooo low.Arabica beans... whats more. 1 bag 10kg for S $2 .  Is that in the NAV? Goodwill, conections?  I have got some at home. Want some.