SembKim   

All Time High With High Volume

I felt that the strategy of the offer is to guarantee that they could garner over 90% and then just take it offline. Unless some investors act in concert to pick up more than 10% from the market to block the Toll offer. Toll could be buying from the open market on a daily basis anywhere below 80 cents. This would also ensure that they succeed by paying less overall. I just do not want a lengthy game to happen.

 

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_EBA1845E6078C89C4825730C004BB755/$file/Toll_Express_Asia_Offer_for_Sembawang_Kimtrans_now_unconditional_020707.pdf?openelement

yes, u do not havta reply...because by then 90%,the free float in the market is less than 10%,which is not allowed,making it mandatory tt Toll takesover the remaining shares.

 

hi joshlai86, where you check the 51%?

anyway, if it becomes unconditional when Toll obtain >90%, does that mean that I do not even have to reply to obtain the 80cents?

 

Need some advice.

Should I accept the offer?

What if I dont, what are the consequences?

Thanks

 

Toll has extended the take over offer till 13aug. it currently has a 57% stake of sembkim. if toll crosses the 90% stake,it would buy the remaining shares at 80cents.however,if it is unable to gain 90%,it would not be able to take over sembkim,or it might raise its offer price higher. if the takeover stalls,the end result would be Toll being a major shareholder of sembkim,with the remaining free float of shares in the market smaller and liquidity lowers.

 

Yes, I also have the same questions as lighthouse.  Can shplayer or someone who know help us please.  Thank you.

 

just wondering how will we know if Toll obtained 90%, if not might as well sell at market.

what if we do not sell? what will happen to my share? will it be sold to Toll at 70cents even if I do not want to when Toll obtain more than 90% which semb kim must become unlisted.

hmmm, any comments?

 

 

 I sold part of my holdings at 74 cents prior to the halt/anouncement. Now, sell or hold the balance ? Will probably sell  if price goes up to 78 cents.  Any comments from other shareholders and forumers ?

 

what DBS thinks abt the offer:

 

Sembawang Kimtrans
General offer by Toll

Story: SBKT announced that Toll Holdings has made a general offer for the
remaining 74% of shares that it does not already own at 70cts per share,
rising to 80cts per share if it receives acceptances up to 90%, allowing
privatization of SBKT.

Point: Although the first-tier offer of 70cts per share is unattractive
(20% lower than our target price of S$0.88), two major shareholders
controlling a total of 31.2% of SBKT have given an irrevocable undertaking
to accept Toll?s offer, which gives a boost to Toll?s chances of achieving
the necessary 90% stake to take the company private, which would then raise
the offer price for SBKT to 80cts per share for share-holders.

Relevance: We believe that investors who see more value in SBKT could hold
on against the offer and could benefit if a) Toll raises their offer if
they were serious about privatizing the company or b) Toll helps to raise
SBKT?s value via business synergies with itself or further restructuring of
its Asian assets into SBKT e.g. the old Semblog businesses.
---

General offer for Sembawang Kimtrans by Toll Holdings.

Toll Holdings, has via its subsidiary Toll Express (Asia) Pte Ltd,

announced its intention to make a voluntary cash offer for all the

remaining ordinary shares in SBKT that it does not already own. Toll has

already received undertakings by Kimtrans Singapore (22.17%) and Tan

Choon Hock (8.96%) to accept their offer, which means the first tier

offer of 70cts is unconditional, as Toll would have more than 50% of

SBKT.Australialisted

1st tier offer of S$0.70 is unattractive vis-à-vis SBKT?s growth prospects.

We find Toll?s first-tier offer price of S$0.70 unattractive, as we believe

that it does not fully reflect the Group?s earnings prospects or a control

premium. The offer price of 70cts works out to be undemanding 10.8x

FY08 PER and at the second-tier price of 80cts, it works out to be 12.3x

FY08 PER. The S$0.70 offer on offer pales on further comparison to the

last close of S$0.74 per share ? shareholders are better off selling in the

market.

Difficult to tell if the offer can attain a 90% acceptance level.

may wish to take profit if SBKT trades up to or close to 80cts, as there is

no guarantee that Toll would receive the required 90% acceptance rate

and the offer may close at only 70cts per share.Investors

 

Toll Holdings intends to make a voluntary conditional cash offer for all the remaining shares. Under the intended offer, Toll Express (Asia) will offer $0.70 per share for the shares it does not own. Toll Express Asia is a subsidiary of Toll Holdings. The latter had taken over SembCorp Logistics - which had an interest in SembKim - last year and renamed it Toll Asia, with the bulk of the stake coming from SembCorp. Toll Express, which already has a 26.04% stake in SembKim, said it has already received irrevocable undertakings from 2 shareholders - Kimtrans Singapore Pte Ltd and Tan Choon Hock - owning 31% of the company to accept its offer. It will offer $0.80 per share in the event of achieving a 90% stake in the company.

 

Nostradamus Supreme	Posted: 30-Sep-2006 22:31
x 0 x 0	There are vague rumours that the company may be taken private.

I mentioned these rumours last Sep. They were persistent and must be true. Indeed turned out to be true.

 

Will announce the share buy back price soon.

 

No, i don't go thro so many stocks. Just went thro my own stocks plus those which are posted (fundamentally ok stocks) in SJ.

 

Sporeguy, yep went over to read the other tread... to take a look. Thanks.

One qn: with so many counters, do you run through a no. of stocks everyday to see if the indicators have changed? Like a basket of 50 stocks say. How do you manage with so little time?

 

That leads me to think... perhaps insiders or croonies closed to the core group knew about the announcement prior to today and they started collecting/accumulating.

	0.760	20,000	Buy Up
09:50:45	0.760	20,000	Buy Up
09:50:38	0.760	100,000	Buy Up
09:50:13	0.760	100,000	Buy Up
09:49:53	0.755	20,000	Sell Down
09:49:31	0.755	1,000	Sell Down
09:49:13	0.755	8,000	Sell Down
09:49:08	0.755	37,000	Buy Up
09:48:54	0.755	50,000	Buy Up
09:47:27	0.755	10,000	Buy Up
09:46:59	0.755	63,000	Sell Down
09:46:52	0.755	50,000	Sell Down
09:46:51	0.760	10,000	Buy Up
09:46:24	0.755	20,000	Sell Down
09:46:15	0.755	70,000	Sell Down
09:46:11	0.760	4,000	Buy Up
09:46:01	0.755	20,000	Sell Down
09:45:56	0.755	6,000	Sell Down
09:45:30	0.760	4,000	Buy Up
09:45:11	0.755	3,000	Sell Down
09:44:53	0.755	50,000	Sell Down
09:44:39	0.760	10,000	Buy Up
09:44:28	0.760	1,000	Buy Up
09:43:25	0.755	369,000	Buy Up
09:43:18	0.755	150,000	Buy Up
09:43:09	0.750	40,000	Sell Down

 

Eastonbay,

I am not sure whether my posting in the other Sembkim tread answer yr Q.

Sporeguy Master	Posted: 09-Jun-2007 16:36
x 0 x 0	MACD shows buying signal on 06Jun. The target is 78c.

 

cashiertan, zun huh? You mentioned on Ray's thread about the breakout of sembkim 2 days ago. Did you ride on? Can you share how you spotted the breakout?

 

 

It rose to a record $0.76 on talk that major shareholder Toll Holdings Ltd. may take the firm private, traders said.

Toll Holdings -- Australian's top transport group -- has a 26.04% stake in SembKim, according to the company's 2006 financial report. Toll had taken over SembCorp Logistics, SembKim's parent, last year and renamed it Toll Asia.

 

Just for easy reference.

From SJ charts,

Low (Jan) at 43.5c went to High (May) at 64.5c, then retreated to Low (Jun) at 49c, then swung up (Aug) to 68.5 c, retreated to Low (Nov) 59.5c. Each upward movement is aprrox. 20c, so 59.5 +20=79.5c (top of 5th wave). Also notice it tallies with wave theory that timing of Low is more accurate than the High. Note the the Lows occurred 5 months apart.


So the next LOW will be in April 2007. So the HIGH of 79.5c will be before that ?

 

DBS Vickers Research has a 1-yr target price of 88c.

 

Final dividend only 0.6cts. Share price has already went from recent 65cts to today 71cts. Nowadays, its often "buy on rumours, sell on news". Price may already have factor in the results & div. Invest with care, just my personal opinion.