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Pseudo portfolio and the 'real' portfolio are different altogether. I wonder how Ms Teh would perform if 'real' money is involved
BTW zhuge_liang, you can't totally avoid Tech STocks. There're some very good Tech Stocks out there - nothing is absolute! Cheers!
Exports have been weak, so it's best to avoid the tech stocks. However, STI and other Asian markets are in better shape, with the exception of Japan, than DJ.
taking reference from the Dow over the last night, I believe the STI would take quite a hit on Monday.
It'll actually be interesting to see how Teh hooi Ling's 4 portfolios from the Business Times have done over the past week.
In fact, instead of the commonplace shorting the market strategy used for volatile/bearish markets such as today, we should place much emphasis on developing a long term strategy that would do well in both the bears and the bulls. Doing well to me would mean at least beating the relevant indexes, or not losing as much.
Any strategies that you guys think would work out there, or have seen for yourself?
Flexibility and looking at differences and not the absolutes and try to reset to a specific reference point as required - easily said than done! Cheers!
"Twist" your mind a little bit and your investment or trading strategy would be different:). Don't be too rigid.
My friend had a winning stock that was going up strongly. I told him he should transfer that capital from a share that is at paper loss and "pump" into his winning stock. But his reply," No more capital as I am stuck in paper loss in another stock." If he can see things differently as what I wrote below, his action would be different.
"It would be good if you can see things in a different way, then your investment or trading strategies can be changed as and when neccesary. For instance at any instantaneous point in time your share value is the same whether it is in stock A or B i.e if say your share is worth $5k in share A, that $5k is the same whether you put it in share A, B or C etc at any instantaneous point in time."
Haha...Can't agree with you more, Livermore. Maximize the return of capitals is a good way to increase your profit; and of course, the other one is to protect your capitals. Cheers!
BTW, PE alone can't tell you much about a stock - it could be very misleading some of the times.
It would be good if you can see things in a different way, then your investment or trading strategies can be changed as and when neccesary. For instance at any instantaneous point in time your share value is the same whether it is in stock A or B i.e if say your share is worth $5k in share A, that $5k is the same whether you put it in share A, B or C etc at any instantaneous point in time.
An analyst over 93.8FM a while ago gave an appropriate advise - "Know what you are buying". Investing is not just about always looking at the Dow or whether the US goes into recession. Did everything go red today despite STI going down?
Those who bought the good stocks with good potential in 2006 have good gains despite 2 severe market corrections in March and July last year. At the end of 2008, the gains would improve. Bad sentiment provides the "bumpy" ride uphill
Agree. Those counters with PE below 10 or early teen are good bets. SIA@8.845, SPC@8.643, DBS@12.838, OCBC@11.855, UOB@13.614. Those growth stocks are riskier although the reward is handsome. YZJ@35+, COSCO@48.824, YANLORD@35+.
I think that valuation in this volatile market has become more important. I believe that with P/E of many banks and financials dropping into the single digits, great opportunities abound if we are able to find the solid ones and ride out the market fluctuations.
It is really all about the human factors - it is the brain vs the emotion. Our emotions are not designed to understand the Markets ( if you really think that you could control your emotions, then it is possible to think that people could also control their heartbeats and hair growth.) !
Things are more predictable after the fact - anything else are just our fancies and 'expectations' of what our brain are able to digest and filter! Cheers!
There always seems to be this focus on the Dow. It would be good instead to focus on the right stocks in the right investment theme. Sure there will always be "bumps" along the way wth Dow drop bringing bad sentiment but in the end being in focus eventually bring rewards.
It is actually a good thing for DOW to slowly drop
I hope they don;t recover and drop again - no points
Better to drop slowly by 50 to 100 pts until bottom - and stay there for a year or two
STI tomolo can take the drop - no problem
HSBC has said STI can weather the crisis for 2008 well
It will be another good year for those holding onto stocks with long term potential. Those who bought such stocks since 2006 should find their gains improved by end 2008.
I think at a volatile time like this, it may be best to stick to Money Market Funds / Instruments for the time being while scouring the market for value companies.
Aside from that, I think emerging markets, oil and gold are something worth looking at in 2008.
don't think it's so much a question of 'fair or not fair', or even of irrationality. markets are irrational. they'll always move on sentiment.
am expecting volatile 1Q, 2nd Q to be stagnant; the real pick up will be 3rd and 4th Q, when all the banks are done writing down and licked their wounds, plus olympics and US elections.
note that spore's economy shrank 3.2% in the last Q. the technical definition of a recession is 2 Qs in negative.
The main movers of a market is and always will be the BBs. So doesn't matter how strong a s'pore company is, if funds sell, it'll only go down. the qn then is for attractive valuations to be reached, such that it induces a buy later on. Pick counters well is what i think: sector-wise, soft commodities, gold (if not already in it), offshore & marine, oil plays.
no more props. that's done and high risk for this year.
caveat emptor! hehe.
i agree totally! because of fear..people throw..and tt's when bottom fishing starts...and those who loss...regrets...its always the case in this cycle
I don't think anyone does have the ability to have accurate market forecasting, if so, he'll be not be sharing it with anyone but making loads of money of the market.
This bloomberg article is great, it talks about the possibilities of recession from various angles http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aeV7.rn.uMDM.
If Singapore do 'catch a cold', i think we will have great opportunities to pick up great stocks that are oversold by fear!
It is fair to say that there isn't any fair market as long as inefficiency still exist. Like it or not market sentiments will always dwell in the trading world. Due to the advancement in technologies and a global economy, there is no escape in Singapore if the world leading economies were to slow down. It is often been said that, if the US sneeze, S'pore will catch a cold; and if the US, Europe and Japan sneeze, S'pore will catch an influenza!
If i were you, i won't be worring so much as the US is very good at re-inventing itself with new 'toys' to pacify the 'cry-babies'! S'pore outlook is still ok - don't expect too much and you certainly won't be disappointed! Cheers to a new year!