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08th August's Fed Interest Rate Meeting

Interesting read from 'Fool.com' .... The name of this site may sound funny, but its a serious inverstor site.

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Deja Vu for Fed?

By Mike Norman
August 9, 2006

After 27 months and 17 consecutive rate hikes, the Fed finally decided to sit on the sidelines Tuesday. The move was widely expected, and that probably explains why both the stock and bond markets sold off.

In its statement, the FOMC mentioned that economic growth had moderated from the strong pace of earlier in year, but some inflation risks remained. It added that any additional firming would depend on "the evolution of both inflation and growth, as implied by incoming information."

If history is any guide, the Fed's pause will be just that -- a pause -- with a few more hikes to come before all is really said and done. Those last few may end up to be the final nails in the economy's coffin, unfortunately.

I'm not going to bash the Fed as so many people love to do. But I will say this: It's too bad that the only policy response to inflation (perceived or real) is to take down the economy and drive up unemployment, because that's exactly what is happening and what will continue to happen under this policy response

 

Agree, Nostradamas ... But I expect another pause next month too. This is in view of the current high oil and metal prices which will keep consumer spending low. Manufacturing output will be affected with less demand ... unemployment will go up while wages will stall if bosses can't maintain their daily ops cost. Then, inflation is contained. What do we have ... weak economy. So, a rate pause on 20th September for me. Sounds too simple, but truely logical. :P

(Note: Products are getting pretty more expensive these days due to these two commodities. Even a packet of fisherman sweets up much these days.)

 

A pause may be bad news because the market will then worry about whether there will be a hike at the next meeting on Sep 20. If the Fed hiked at the Aug 8 meeting, then the market would be assured of a pause at the next meeting.

 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve has veered off its path of consecutive interest rate hikes for the first time in 25 months and it appears it is going to take economists some time to get used to the new environment.

With slow and steady rate hikes no longer automatically in the offing, there was no clear consensus about whether the pause would actually mean a stop in the central bank's rate hikes or only a brief intermission.

Economists like to keep one eye on the Fed funds futures markets for a consensus opinion on where rates were headed, but traders appeared to be just as conflicted.

"The markets certainly haven't shown a clear or decisive reaction," said Robert DiClemente, chief U.S. economist at Citigroup.

One thing is clear. The next Fed move depends on the economic data. But on that subject opinions were almost as numerous as there are Fed-watchers.

Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, said the Fed would resume hiking rates at the next meeting on Sept. 20.

"I expect them to go again. The entire rate structure is too low," Rupkey said.

"If I had to guess, the economy is going to remain fine and they are going to have more work to do," he added.

But DiClemente said the Fed has finished hiking interest rates.

"We feel there is a moderation and it is taking the economy to a cooler growth rate, one that could be sufficient to cap inflation and put the Fed out of the picture for an extended period of time," DiClemente said.

Consumer data will be central to the forecast and any sign of strength "would certainly raise the risks of them resuming the tightening.

Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist, Global Insight, said the Fed will probably have to raise rates a bit further to combat inflation.

"The statement today indicates that if there's any bias at all, it's toward raising interest rates a bit farther," Gault said.

Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, said the Fed is "at the fingers-crossed stage" and will hold rates steady in September and through the end of the year.

"They're basically saying, 'trust us, we've done enough'," he said.

Ken Mayland, chief economist at ClearView Economics, said there is "a reasonable chance the Fed is done."

"If the economic slowdown is limited or if price pressures do not appear to be unwinding by late this year, then what you might see is a bigger increase of the fed funds rate (50 basis points) to catch up and make up for lost time," he said.

 

Fed's actual statement below ....... I predict another rate pause next month (20th September) due to current high oil.

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Fed paused and stocks went down. This confirms the saying "buy on rumours and sell on the facts/news". US dollar stronger as well. Wonder which way the STI will go tomorrow? My bet is side-ways.

 

Regardless which way interest rates go, banks are always more than eager to lend you money to buy real estate and do not expect you to pay up immediately, but give you at least ten to twenty years to pay up. So, buy property stocks as prices always move up, even with an occassional hick up.

Somebody said that MacDonald does not make much money from selling hamburgers but they sit on very expensive properties all over the world. 

 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- After 25 months and 17 straight meetings with a quarter-percentage point rate hike, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to hold rates steady at its meeting Tuesday.

The move was seen as giving policy makers time to see whether they have raised interest rates enough to cool inflationary pressures, or overshot by hiking too many times putting growth at risk.

Fed officials have their fingers crossed that the picture clears a bit by the time of their next meeting on Sept. 20.

The decision keeps the Fed's key fed funds interest rate at 5.25%. The FOMC had moved that rate up slowly but steadily from a 46-year low of 1% beginning in June 2004. Read full FOMC statement

The vote of the ten-member committee was not unanimous. Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker dissented. Lacker wanted the central bank to hike rates again.

Lacker made comments to reporters in June signaling that he was growing increasingly worried about inflation. See full story.

In the statement, as expected, the FOMC kept all its options on the table. It repeated that any further tightening would depend on the economic data.

The Fed said that "inflation risks remain." This is a signal that the Fed is leaning to hike rates again.

But at the same time, the Fed said that price pressures "seem likely to moderate over time "reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand."

The Fed said that economic growth "has moderated," from high energy costs and the gradual cooling of the housing markets.

Some economists believe the economy will slow sharply, making any more rate hikes unnecessary, and leading the central bank to consider cutting rates by the end of the year.

But others predict more rate hikes will be needed to cool overheating inflationary pressures.

Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Bros, said the Fed had been seeking the market's permission to pause.

Fed chief Ben Bernanke first raised the possibility of a pause in April. At the time, he emphasized in his April testimony that a pause would not necessarily mean the end to rate hikes. If inflation continues to accelerate beyond expectations, or growth reignites, the Fed could be raising rates again soon. See full story.

The permission came over the past six weeks as economic data showed the U.S. economy is slowing in a manner that the Fed has been looking for ever since it began raising interest rates two years ago.

Job growth has averaged 112,000 in the past four months. Job growth weaker than expected in July

And growth as measured by the gross domestic product, slowed to a 2.5% rate in the second quarter from a 5.6% rate in the first three months of the year. See full story.

Fed officials have said that slower growth over time will reduce inflation pressures and bring core inflation -- now running at an 11-year high of 2.4% -- back under the Fed's 2% ceiling.

There is some concern that the economy may be slowing too fast, particularly since the lagged impact of the Fed's past 17 rate hikes has not been felt. Economists estimate that these lags can last up to18 months.

Ahead of the announcement, financial markets see about a 50/50 chance the fed funds rate will rise to 5.5% at either the September or October meetings.

Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
 

 

Fed ...... P.A.U.S.E!!!

 

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will, after 17 straight rises, not hike interest rates, though gains were limited ahead of the announcement.

S&P 500 futures rose 2.6 points at 1,284.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 4.25 points at 1,506.75. Dow industrial futures rose 20 points.

On Monday, the Dow industrials weakened 21 points, the Nasdaq Composite fell 12.5 and the S&P 500 dropped 3.6 points, as markets reacted to a run-up in crude-oil futures after BP closed an Alaskan pipeline to make repairs.

Crude-oil futures were hovering around $77 a barrel on Tuesday.

Market attention will be at the Federal Reserve, expected at 2:15 p.m. to hold interest rates at 5.25%.

The accompanying FOMC statement will also be scrutinized to see if the Fed will promise to hold off the rate hike pedal.

The dollar declined against the euro ahead of the Fed statement.

 

Looks like an 'empty pause' tomorrow even if there is a rate hike pause .... Next Fed's meeting on 20th September.

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Oil Prices Weigh on Stocks

By Robert Holmes
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
8/7/2006 10:08 AM EDT


Stocks were lower early Monday as surging oil prices forced traders to transfer their attention from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting to the energy markets.

Weighing on equities was the advance in crude. The price of a barrel of oil jumped after BP (BP - news - Cramer's Take) said it was stopping production at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska to repair a leak in a pipeline. The shutdown removes up to 400,000 barrels a day from the world's supply. In electronic Nymex trading, September crude

"Even if the Fed pauses, the market now has mostly discounted the move, or lack thereof," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist with Cantor Fitzgerald. "Earnings are mostly behind us, inflation will persist as a problem, the midterm elections are coming up, and all eyes will soon shift to the Fed meeting in September."

 

 

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European stock markets on Friday accelerated after U.S. jobs data suggested the Federal Reserve won't hike interest rates, with plans from Philips Electronics and Anglo American to return cash to shareholders also well-received.

The German DAX Xetra 30 index (DX:1876534: news, chart, profile) rose 1.5% at 5,723 and the French CAC 40 index (FR:1804546: news, chart, profile) added 1.2% at 5,049.

After a surprise Bank of England rate hike on Thursday, U.K. FTSE 100 index (UK:UKX: news, chart, profile) advanced 0.9% at 5,889, not making up for the last session's losses.

Danny Andrews, a trader at spread-betting firm WorldSpreads, said London is still seeing the impact of the Bank of England hike.

"The FTSE has been the worst performer today, a few cracks are starting to show in the (U.K.) economy," he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve appears less likely to follow in the footsteps of the Bank of England and European Central Bank with a rate hike next week after nonfarm payrolls rose a less-than-forecast 113,000.

U.S. stock markets advanced on the news, as did the British pound, which rallied over 1% against the U.S. dollar. See market snapshot. See currencies.

 

But if really kanna rate hike, the Dow will crash very badly!

 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied at Friday's opening, as news that the labor market was weaker than expected last month raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will conclude that it doesn't have to raise interest rates next week.

Investors have been puzzled in recent sessions as to whether the Fed will lift rates again at its Aug. 8 monetary-policy meeting. The soft payrolls data for July were seen as providing the strongest possible incentive for the central bank to pause, a scenario that the stock market would like to see.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 77 points higher at 11,320.

The S&P 500 was up 9 points at 1,289 and the Nasdaq Composite up 19.93 points at 2,112.27.

The U.S. rates question dominated investors' minds on Friday.

The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by 113,000 last month, after a revised 124,000 gain in July. See full story.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting payroll gains of about 143,000 in July. See Economic Calendar.

The nation's unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in July from 4.6% in June. This is the highest level since February.

At the same time, the report also showed inflation in wages, a factor that could persuade the Fed to continue raising rates.

Average hourly earnings last month rose 0.4% and are up 3.8% on a year-on-year basis. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain in earnings.

"The market is looking at the top-line numbers and is saying that it appears that the economy is slowing and the job market is slowing," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at S.W. Bach.

"All indications are that the Fed probably will pause next week," Cardillo said. "But I'm not so sure, because we also have an inflation problem."

After the report, federal funds futures priced in only a 16% chance of a rate hike. The fed funds rate, which has been increased by a quarter of a percentage point 17 times in a row since June 2004, currently stands at 5.25%.

Investors also will continue to monitor events in the Middle East, with little prospect of a ceasefire to cheer the market. Overnight Israel struck at Hezbollah sites in Beirut and for the first time hit bridges in Christian strongholds outside the city.

 

FOMC meeting coming...Mr Ben Benanke need to say somthing nice thing even if it is d last rate hike before putting a break to it rate hike.

 

I think Wall Street is factoring in a pause at the next FOMC meeting. If there's a hike, there would be a sharp fall.

 

US's July's payroll data will be out at 8.30am (Local 8.30pm this evening) .... 13 more hours to go for a rally or crush next Monday on STI.

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Hopes Run High for Fed Pause

By Liz Rappaport
Markets Columnist
8/3/2006 5:43 PM EDT


Thursday's green arrows aside, the financial markets won't have confirmation of the Federal Reserve's likely course until they see Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for July. If the payrolls are stronger than the expected 145,000, the markets may reverse course. If the number is weak, the pre-Fed rally could take on more urgency.

As the markets appear to be waiting for the data-dependent Fed to put an end to rate hikes, the Fed appears to be taking some cues from the market, too -- particularly the bond market.

"The Fed has been asking approval from the markets to pause," says Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers. "And two recent episodes reveal the market has given the Fed a nod of approval."

Stocks and bonds rallied sharply both on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's biannual congressional testimony on July 19 and on the weak GDP report out last Friday. The rallies show these markets are buying the Fed's argument that a slowing economy will stamp out inflation, but the bond market is taking the argument one step further -- indicating to the Fed that it isn't worried about inflation.

 

 

i agree that US market is a strange one & that it's very unpredictable. It looks like it's going to be a hike but i won't be very surprised if it's a pause actually.