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zanetti ( Date: 14-Nov-2009 10:03) Posted:
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zanetti ( Date: 13-Nov-2009 11:44) Posted:
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blackstreams, I'm also quite bullish about this counter. The main reason is that if Adelson is willing to pump in most of his fortune to save it, I dont see it going down.He's probably the person that knows best for his company. I happened to read an article about his past, his dad was a taxi driver and left nothing for him. What he has now is everything build through his own hands. Deserve our respect. And about Genting, I feel its overrated.. Especially when their main shareholders are decreasing their stocks holdings every now and then... what does it say of their confidence for the company...
Btw you was tallking about call activity. I read that somewhere too... care to explain what exactly isit ?
Zanetti, it's a nice pleasant surprise for me to see some discussion on this forum about LVS, rather than about Genting all the time. Although you're quite accurate about the recent history about LVS shares and Adelson's actons, I do not foresee this stock rising back to its all time high of $140 anytime soon. If u've vested in this stock since it's lows of about $3, you'll be aware of its $12b debt, how it is still in danger of defaulting on its debt convenants and how it's pinning all its hopes on Macau and Singapore.
In any case, I'm very bullish about this stock, making most of my $ from trades in it (I was lucky enough to start trading at around $4 when I determined that it would not go under.) This is a great trading stock, with wild swings of up to $9 on any given month. The piece of good news is that there is heavy call activity by US traders on this stock expiring Jan 17th or Jan 19th (need to check which day). I went in a little too early too much at $16 after it hit highs of $22 recently, if I'd waited another week, I'd have snapped them up at $13. The Macau IPO at the end of this month, the opening of the Marina Sands and the call activity for Jan give me encouragement to hold on to it for a little while longer. It's trading in the lower end of $17 today.
Just a note of caution for those looking at this stock for the first time, it's also a stock where the shorts are out in Force so you'll have to be able to stomach the swings. One recent article on LVS is this. For reading pleasure. Cheers.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/172913-four-risks-to-las-vegas-sands-shareholders?source=feed
zanetti ( Date: 12-Nov-2009 18:25) Posted:
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LVS own a few casinos in las vegas palazzo and macao. Somewhere during 2006 he borrowed a huge amount of $ to build 3 casinos in Las Vegas, Macao and Singapore. Just the singapore's casino alone will cost him $5billion. But before any of them are constructed the market crash and this is when his debtors begin pushing him for $. Adelson subsequent took out 1 Billion from his own pocket to silent them.
In an interview few months back, he say that the model of his company has never being change before or after the crisis. And that he got no idea why have the stock prices went down so much.
In my personal view, i believe that as long as the economy were to recover(which we all know it will), there's really no reason for LVS not able to go back towards its peak of $140. The fundamentals of this company are still good and will only improve when they diversify their business into asia.
Someone pointed out that chinese are born gamblers and i must say i am fully agreeable. I've been to australia and macau casino before and i notice a very huge difference in those gamblers. In australia, the aussies look very relax, they order a glass of free wine, stare at the roulette table for 1/2 hour before placing their $20 bet. When they hit it, they will congradulate each other, cheers...cheers... cheers. And leave the casino happily. For macau, nobody is interested in drinks, before the ball start rolling, everyone is squeezing to put their $ on the table. They are more afraid of not able to bet then to lose.
And for the singapore casino, i believe not only the rich middle east people will come. I've got rich indonesian chinese friends who look forward to coming to singapore casino once its open. Dont forget these indo-chn just need to take a short flight of barely an hour to reach singapore.
Calculation ( Date: 12-Nov-2009 14:48) Posted:
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hahaha, Why LV lose money? Americans are not born 'gamblers' unlike chinese. I suppose if not because of those super rich gamblers from middle-east, they would have closed shop long ago. Now, LV have another competitor i.e. Singapore Casino and since these super rich of middle-east dont go Genting but, perhaps, they cld come singapore and we welcome them....we got spicy and good food unlike American can only offer BURGER ... LOL
Calculation ( Date: 12-Nov-2009 14:48) Posted:
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Calculation ( Date: 12-Nov-2009 14:48) Posted:
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Anybody here who is familiar with casino business?
To be honest, I was a bit surprised to learn about so many American casinos running into cash problems. I thought casinos are cash cows? Even though they had loans, I would expect those debts to be fully repaid long ago since they have been in operation for many years.
Unless those loans were so huge or their businesses were not as profitable as what we thought?
Since my last post, LVS has risen almost 50%. This is mainly due to the recovering of the economy, the decision to launch IPO in HongKong and of course the increasing confidence from investors.
Late Tuesday, there are news that LVS is preparing to relaunch its construc
52 Wk Range:
Negative sentiment towards Las Vegas and low US confidence may well continue to cause LVS to fall in the short-term. Las Vegas is truly suffering. But from the perspective of my, perhaps longer, investment horizon, that doesn't matter.
The US is now a minority of LVS's revenues and earnings, and will become an even smaller contribution next year. The company should really be renamed "Asia Sands" or perhaps just "Sands".
I recently visited both Macau and can assure you that Macau is doing fine, even if visitation is softer than last year, and LVS continues to gain market share in what is probably the best long-term market in the world, as China becomes wealthier. Already Macau is much more significant than the US in terms of earnings to LVS and that will only increase post Cotai, which will entrench LVS as the strongest player in Macau - a remarkable achievement by LVS in just a few short years post the removal of Stanley Ho's monopoly.
Right now LVS has a market cap of US$4.5bn, excluding warrant exercise. The equity value (not Enterprise Value...) that brokers believe is achievable at IPO in HK for the Macau assets alone is ~US$5bn. Yes, extraordinaly, more than LVS's current market cap. If you have have seen the China IPO market lately (eg, 200-500x oversubscriptions) or have seen GS IPOs fly in HK before you'll appreciate this is far from crazy. Even bearish UBS thinks the Macau assets alone may generate US$500m pa in net income in 2010.
Turning to Singapore, which just topped out the three hotel towers under construction at Marina Sands:
www.marinabaysands.com/
This may prove to be the most profitable casino in the world, given the duopoly structure, strategic position and much lower gaming taxes than Macau. Sands itself previously "suggested" US$1.2bn in annual EBITDA for Singapore, significantly more than the Venetian in Macau. See page 36-37 of the below:
library.corporate-ir.n...
Sands is going to wind up with the two best gaming assets in Asia - the Venetian/Cotai in Macau servicing China and Marina Sands servicing South East Asia and India. Even if the US is worthless, if LVS survives just a few more months, which I think is not in serious doubt (just look on Bloomberg at the current yield on their corporate bond), LVS is very, very cheap at these levels and could always sell assets if needed - eg via HK IPO or minority interest in Marina Sands.
The leading Analysts in the stock (Sanford Bernstein, ML and UBS) all expect LVS will avoid debt covenant breaches and the mean Analyst share price target is 53% above the current share price. And this is all notwithstanding very bearish forecasts for Marina Sands Singapore by the analysts (eg, US$300-600mn EBITDA), which I assure you will be wrong. Once Singapore is complete in Jan/Feb, LVS may be generating US$1bn of net income, meaning LVS may now be trading at 4.5x PE.
Adelson in a recent interview said he would be buying towels for the research analysts. To wipe the egg off their faces when it is shown how off they are. I'm betting on Adelson not the Analysts.
www.cnbc.com/id/158402...
Right now, LVS is a stock traded by US investors based on impressions of Las Vegas, and covered heavily NY analysts who are fairly clueless about Asia and in several cases prepared their forecasts back in October 08 and March this year, with the backdrop of Lehman collapsing etc.