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US Meltdown Again

Antiques and stocks are a worl apart by comparison...

Much like comparing solid gold and a piece of paper... hehehe...



 

 

Date 7 July: Note info below is for DJ index as a whole not applicable to individual stock

 

My Third Posting, forgive me if I am wrong, I am still learning J

 

I am not to worry to invest at this moment of time, not much to loose. Although for past few months, stock has recovered a lot especially STI but I think for US, the recovery is still not much.

 

I believe the DJ index as a whole about 8200 (07 july 2009) is considered stable and has strong supporting point @ 8000 plus or minus 200 points. Example initially investor “A” buy an antique at $10000 hoping to sell at $11000 but due to market downturn , he has to sell at $9000 to investor B who hope to reap a profit but has to sell to C at $8000….Finally H manage to buy  it at $4000. At this moment of time, Punter A,B,C,D ( E&G maybe) is out of game or burn the finger. I believe at this moment, a lot of people will be eyeing at the S$4000 antique (including A,B,C,D,E & F who has already recovered from shock) because it is considered a value buy and people don’t mind buying it.

  

Counter worth to take a look (DXO: Power Share Double Long ETF now @ 3.8 ). For those driving 2 litres car, those who own transport company & etc  Please buy this counter. If oil price rice, this ETF will rise and it will hedge your petrol price)

 

Counter worth to take a look if: One of this day, if AIG (US$18 now)  share price has a chance to be  on par with BOA,  you might want to take a closer look at this counter.

Thanks for reading, “Be a Happy Investor” Good Night and God Bless U J

 

But of course one must always be ready to be proven wrong in one's analysis...
Because to insist on being right is a very bad attitude... hehehe...  

 

There is nothing wrong with iPunter comments. In fact as the days go by it become more apparent that the unfinished downward move is gaining traction.

 

Hulumus, U a self proclaimed trillionaire buys in millions must have been fooled by your team of professional. Lucky u are here reading lowly forumer to get some idea. Better wake up before u trillion turns sour. Cry also useful

 

I notice, you are a typical bearish talker. Ha. ha.. ha...

iPunter      ( Date: 04-Jul-2009 13:43) Posted: The time is perhaps ripe for the next leg of an 'unfinished' downward move, at a time when bullishness reigns and the market has rebounded greatly with recent bailouts, and having since been fuelled by widespread euphoric optismism of a fantastic recovery being underway... Will the artificially propped-up economy, with complements of Uncle Sam, be on it's own feet again? Perhaps it may learn to walk on it's own feet again... But like a butterfly nymph assisted out of it's cocoon pod, it will be nice if it can last... At least money could be made...

 

The time is perhaps ripe for the next leg of an 'unfinished' downward move, at a time when bullishness
reigns and the market has rebounded greatly with recent bailouts, and having since been fuelled by
widespread euphoric optismism of a fantastic recovery being underway...

Will the artificially propped-up economy, with complements of Uncle Sam, be on it's own feet again?
Perhaps it may learn to walk on it's own feet again...

But like a butterfly nymph assisted out of it's cocoon pod, it will be nice if it can last...
At least money could be made...

 

So much money were pump into the market from all over the world by the goverment, so rebound is a definate but how long can it last? Yes, indeed, there is no realy economy as US will not be like before be "great consumer" and rest of countries "export" !

The problem of current situation is a prolong world imbalance trade. How can US go on to import when they are already the biggest debtor's nation? In contrast, China can never be like US as domestic spending is small due to low wages, high saving??

 

The US unemployment has proved to be a damper...... Realistically, ppl calling for second half recovery is telling u a joke.

 

If u think China is doing well, think about how the US 1.2trillion bank dashed out as loan since dec 08. They are largely used for asset speculation and not for real economy activities. Arbitrager reaped handsome profits in commodity wave 1 when they spot the difference in spot and future price. That is why the market hot up in mar-apr 09. Now they are gambling on second wave which is very risky (from my point of view) that the spot price would increase strongly. Think about it, is this true? Oil is coming down, other commodity will follow suit and those on futures would have to cut loss if they could not take delivery....

 

Also taken from the web: The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (Cansi) says up to 5% of newbuildings ordered at Chinese shipbuilders may have been cancelled.

Figures from Cansi show newbuilding cancellations are soaring, with 27 vessels cancelled in May alone.

Cansi said order cancellations at Chinese shipyards totaled 55 for the first five months of the year, up whopping 96% from the 28 vessels cancelled in the first four months of the year.

Accumulated newbuilding cancellations since October last year reached 152 ships of 4.4m dwt.

Cancellations equalled 2.3% of the orderbook as of the end of May this year.

As some shipyards did not report the real number of cancellations, the association said the genuine total percentage of the orderbook cancelled could be up to 5%.

A Cansi official said that it expected more order cancellations to take place in the coming months.

China's shipbuilders also reported a notable slowdown in revenue growth. Although total revenues grew by 45.8% to Yuan159.9bn ($23.5bn), the increase was 18.7 percentage points lower than the same period in 2008.

The number of new orders has suffered eight consecutive months of decline. Total new orders stood at just 1.2m dwt in the first five months of the year, a 96% drop on the same period in 2008. The total existing orderbook fell by 6% to 192m dwt at the end of May.

Despite the gloomy business conditions, the association predicted newbuilding completions would continue to register double-digit growth to hit 40m dwt for the year as a whole. A rebound in newbuilding deliveries is expected in the second half of the year.

However, the association said shipbuilders would still face difficulties in financing and getting new orders.

 

Freeze it back ASAP....

 

Many ppl on the floor are saying the market is due for some correction and then consolidation.... Watching today market is really so boring. Only 764million shares transacted... going to create new record soon huh????

 

STI edges up nicely today is just a laughter....... Based on info shared with me from different sources, there are more bad news than goods coming from US....

 

What is wrong with 3rd quarter?

watchlist      ( Date: 01-Jul-2009 09:10) Posted: Today is the start of Q3... Let's be on our guard...

 

Today is the start of Q3... Let's be on our guard...

 

Reason as of 29 Jun 09:

 

1. Banks need to write down massive bond losses.

2. Most banks profit are entirely dependent on risk appetite going forward.

3. Congress is asking for another round of stress test.

4. IMF estimated US banking loss through 2010 at USD 1.06 trillion. So far only 500b has been written down.

5. New delinquency rate of 1 trillion of commercial real estate loan held by banks have been increasing.

6. Credit card losses have been mounting.