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1-12 of 12
can trend down to 1100 before go up trend again in may 09...gut feel again...
STI down another 20. Support 1472. Remain short but cover back some at support. We are in the wave 5 down as
posted on 21st Jan http://www.collinseow.com/index.php/2009/01/21/short-and-remain-short/
This is a slow grind down. Use the 20 and 40 MA to see any change of trend, for now there is no sign of a bottom.
As told in
19th Jan , there is a 60% chance of hitting 1500.
Support possible at 1472 or 1200. Let’s not anticipate but trade the current trend now.Cover your short position in stages. No black and white thinking .
STI drop another 23 point after posting .
Support 1676 ,1640 , 1570 1468. See blog for more details
www.collinseow ( Date: 12-Feb-2009 10:20) Posted:
STI remain bearish . Sell on strength 20ma below 40ma and 40 ma below 100ma . CCI hit high and turning down |
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STI remain bearish . Sell on strength 20ma below 40ma and 40 ma below 100ma . CCI hit high and turning down
Above is the weekly STI chart , STI move in April 08 from 3300 (
which I start to turn cautious )to low of 1500 in Oct(
which I start to turn very bullish). After Oct, we had a rebound to make high 1960 and broke 1800,(
I turn bearish again) Now STI is consolidating in a range. My view remain bearish.
My view is that something else will affect the stock market, something not related to sub-prime , financial sector which will cause the next leg down.
This is like after 911 , we had the war on terror and after war , we had SARs
This time is economy 911 , we had the war and after the war , we have _______?
The main thing is to keep ourself positive in all circumstances.
Follow our government leaders advice and keep our head high.
I am sure Singapore will come out even strong after this.
Looking at the cycle , we will have above 3 months before we see any meaningful bottom
Good one there.....I do hope the STI tanks further down.......More buying opportunities ahead.....This is the Great Singapore Stocks Sale coming soon......
Bearish view as told
According to Thomas Bulkoski book , rising wedge has a 6% failure rate and 15% likely fall and a 53% of a throwback.
wow, all this complicating TA stuff.... in the present days, I would have thot the major financial events around the world, even in HK, seems to dictate where the STI is heading...
This may be last wave up before hitting the longer term downtrendline again. Once this happen we will see the wave 5 which is also the last wave down. This can bring us to support 1500 or 1200. My view is that there is a 60-70% chance of this happening.
The not so likely view(Personally) is a rally above 1950 toward 2050-2100 level.
The scary thing is that people are suddenly getting bullish again… Obama , budget , CNY . My view for this week is to sell on strength. This does NOT mean to go short though as more confirmation is need to go short.
Please read this with handful of salt as this is my personal view
My view: Sell on strength until we can break back into triangle. Good news the triangle already close to apex which means any selling pressure maybe limited too.
I personally will do range trading range rather than trade breakout.
www.collinseow.com
