Post Reply
1-20 of 33
Why are u pple posting in the wrong thread, the posting doesn't match the thread heading.
Kindly post in the correct relevant appropriate thread, otherwise your posting may b skipped if the thread heading appears irrelevant to forumers as I believe most of us will scan the thread heading to decide whether to open & read.
I had all along skip this thread as the heading appears irrelevant to me now but somehow, out of curiosity, click to take a look & noticed a lot of posting not matching the heading.
Hi All,
There are some changes in US to be expected so which I feel it is a kind of manipulative policy.
This cram out law, passed at House of Rep, and now under review by senate will try to minimize bankruptcy. Lender either take a partial hit of the loan out amount to prevent borrower from going into bankruptcy.
Very manipulative and credit extension may be even more difficult? Now another safety net to tap into govt kiddy for problem borrowers.
Your view?
I support your comments. Bottom is near or over.
freeme ( Date: 31-Mar-2009 17:08) Posted:
From now to mid april will be a interesting period to watch especially the reports from banks. As long as banks better than expect result, the market should start to buy in.. and push the market higher. If result is still as bad, with bad economic news, we will see maybe the one last big wave down...
I believe mkt is really near bottom liao.. the most it will drag another 2 quarters |
|
yes, makes sense.
From now to mid april will be a interesting period to watch especially the reports from banks. As long as banks better than expect result, the market should start to buy in.. and push the market higher. If result is still as bad, with bad economic news, we will see maybe the one last big wave down...
I believe mkt is really near bottom liao.. the most it will drag another 2 quarters
Why you always so gloomy one...
hotstock ( Date: 30-Mar-2009 14:29) Posted:
Hey all, making $$ last 2 weeks? Time to exit any time this week before lightning strikes deep. Even merlion not spare.
No more bullshit. Let take the fact why it is so gloomy again.
1. G20 meeting this Friday will show one thing. No result due to self protectionism. Look at EU.
2. US Bank stress tests result will be out soon. What is stress test? U can measure the depth then and this will unnerve all.
3. Bad result for the 1st 3 months of 2009 will be out soon...... U think things are better,,, think thrice.
Let brave the storm again. Keep your profit for the last 2 weeks and wait for the next push when it returns to 1400 again |
|
Hey all, making $$ last 2 weeks? Time to exit any time this week before lightning strikes deep. Even merlion not spare.
No more bullshit. Let take the fact why it is so gloomy again.
1. G20 meeting this Friday will show one thing. No result due to self protectionism. Look at EU.
2. US Bank stress tests result will be out soon. What is stress test? U can measure the depth then and this will unnerve all.
3. Bad result for the 1st 3 months of 2009 will be out soon...... U think things are better,,, think thrice.
Let brave the storm again. Keep your profit for the last 2 weeks and wait for the next push when it returns to 1400 again
Just to update on the recent toxic asset plan:
The GOODS
- The scheme encourages HIGH LEVERAGE. It is a classical private equity scheme where private investors only need to take out 7.5 cents of a dollar invested.
THE BADS
- Why wait till Autumn to start auction?
- How to The price the toxic? Bank selling toxic will require MORE WRITEDOWN and need more EQUITY to shoulder loss. Yes it remove the cancer but can the body takes it?
- What is the US Administration objective? It is not clear at this point. By Providing the carrot of high leverage does it means it wants to push up the toxic price? To remove cancer or ask bank to start lending?
In my opinion, I am on the side of Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.
You need to make up your view.
After lightning strike, likely will follow by thunder pour. Nonetheless, at current moment, AK opines that u will feel better, if u place your concern, on anything u can think of, 2 third on d optimistic side and d remaining on d otherwise. An Ah Q thought, I used to apply, though at times may not work.
This week is a hard week ahead. If Dows breaks 7000, then psychologically we are hitting into storm again.
I am not bullish...
What I mean is the real bottom may be yet a long way to go...
I cannot predict but I offer a view that I gather from many sources. When I say rock bottom it indicates that we are in bad bad time. We can see the sky is real high and the party for recovery has never get started.
Of course if u think sentiment is good, you are not wrong. It depends on where you stand, what info u choose to read, what experience u have gathered from people u work, u network, u talk to.
How can you say sentiment is at 'rock bottom'?
Can you predict tomorrow or next month?..
It is about one week since I last post on my thread. Sentiments have been at rock bottom.
Worst is not over and it would be hard hit in from end mar to april when us bank stress test results start to surface. If u trust me, it is going to be very very ugly. Eventually US would have to guarantee toxic asset like in UK.
Numbers from local economy over last few days are bad. Do not expect any quick turn from the numbers. The economy is really really bad based on what I have talked to people of different business (corporate clients). Hence I expect the STI would soon reach 1500 in one to 2 weeks. Any chance of rebound? No.....
Bad publicity of s-shares will affect our local sentiment. I think we should rate it AVOID for wealth preservation reason. No amount of $$ can be safe with this attractive yet dangerous group. China Economy is bad. Ppl in the shipping lines told me that their business have been affected. Demand for bulk cargo shipment is low. So what if the BDI moves up a little.
Japan is in very bad shape. My Jap Clients are mostly quiet and they see no cheers of any turnaround. All say we could not get any budget allocation from HQ and so how to spend it in Singapore.
Although sad, I think we can put our $$ in local big names and indeed they will give you more peace of mind than sudden heart attack that some counter is halt, suspended to tell the world that they have irregularities. US enron case emerges as small ripple copycats in China? May be yes and may be bigger cats soon?
Till next week, we shall see where we stand again. The remaining 40min of the market should not change any of my perception. Perhaps it will reinforce what I have said above.
Havent been posting for a while as I was out of this market for a while.
However, I still wish to remind people that it is not the time to enter this market. Ignore all those people who write in your newspaper that there is sign of turning around, lots of buzz in china and BDI creeping up, freight rate up, more credit extended, more stimulus package and all. This all points to one thing.... more downside.
Whether intentional or not, these writings biased with no self analysis. If self analysis is not possible, dont write to add more fire. Only thing fortunate is that volume in our local machine has shrinked substantially. It is meaning to generate trade by trading against one another by traders. It does not stop bleeding. Goods news turn sour soon and this are for ppl who would try to lurk out the innocent so that they can sell it to them to avoid more burn.
If you trust, stay out of this reporting season period. panic is the word as you will not see lights still. Do not think that buy big and sell for small price change makes a profit for the day. There are higher chance of huge gap down in the coming days and week.
For now I see we are edging closer to 1400
Geitner's much awaited rescue plan was @#$%ing disappointing! My impression is they haven't got a clue on how to 'fix' the problems and the cliche that 'it's full of rhetoric and lack specific' fits the much maligned plan.
The long and short of it all is they will need another plan to rescue this one. They are just bidding their time and hoping that the problems will work itself through. If the aim was to confuse investors, Geitner did a damn good job!
The rescued plan unveiled overnight in washington is indeed very disappointing. Although it has its merits but it stems from being lack of details and concrete action plan.
While I review the plan this morning, I wonder how many people indeed fully understood Mr TimG speech delivery. I have a few concerns here:
1. Stress Testing is very time consuming and to carry out its validity for the scenarios are at best anyone's guess. How is he expecting the banks to stress test their portfolio. I suspect the intention is to measure the depth of the bad assets. Since no one knows the answer, the idea of bad bank never materializes. On the other hand, the banks are most likely to have credit risk models in-house. A more quicker method would be required the bank to run the credit risk models making more realistic adjustment to probability of default, exposure given default, loss given default to assess the expected loss. Monte carlo simulation would be able to simulate the worst case scenario. With that, the unexpected loss should be declared.
2. The problem of bank not lending will not change overnight. String attached makes it worst. The reason is not that bank refuses to lend as they are more risk averse now. I suspect the main cause is CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) that they have to meet either if they follows local regulation or Basel II Accord. The money that they suck up are mainly to meet CAR requirement, from my point of view.
3. No one is more risk averse now than before. Working with Private Equity (PE) has little detail. Usually PE would capitalized on distressed macro condition like now. If you work with Fed or any govt, there is always a list of terms and conditions. First, how to price them, how long is required to hold, when can and cannot they dispose bad assets. Any guarantee for the loss if it worsen.
My view, in conclusion, is to forced all banks to show their loss based on their internal credit risk model or one fed can dictate (for fairness and to prevent further hiding) and then look at the ways to adjust the CAR for the temporary period. I think we need simple solution at this critical time instead on delving into theories that make understanding so difficult.
Unless the rescued plan is clearly understood by all, the market is deem to come down very substantially.
To share info with everyone you may see the link below.
http://www.conerlyconsulting.com/charts.php (he is optimistic but some comments are accurate)
http://www.gtnews.com/feature/319.cfm (Free registration)
An Update on the expected size of the BAD TOXIC Bank.
“Bad bank” to cost $4 trillion? — Goldman Sachs economists estimate that it could take $4 trillion to establish a “bad bank” to buy toxic loans. The number could shrink if the bank were limited to certain loans or banks. [Source: Reuters]
A new awaking fear sets in soon. STAY OUT TOTALLY.
For months, it has been expected that credit cards will be the next shoe to drop in the financial crisis after mortgages. It seems that the prediction is coming true.Revisions are the order of the day. JPMorgan Chase, which bought bankrupt Washington Mutual last year, now predicts that its chargeoff rate will go from 7 percent to 8 percent later this year — bunmping its previous predicts by a percentage point each.
Credit card companies are reporting spikes in delinquencies and are circling their wagons by setting aside more money to cushion losses and are paying the price on their balance sheets. A frightening new twist is that layoffs are increasing with 70,000 new layoffs announced in just the past few days. Wishful thinking that unemployment would peak at 8 or 8.5 percent this year now seems dreamy.
The American Banker reports that credit card losses are now seen as surpassing the levels of the previous two recessions of 2001 and 1991.
A few examples:
The grim outlook for credit cards makes the subprime mess seem oh-so-yesterday. One reason is that the full extent of the economic downturn has hit many industrial sectors besides real estate. New layoff announcements include Caterpillar, Volvo, Best Buy and Target.
Unemployment has increased in every state and the District of Columbia.
Indeed, unemployment is sweeping the country like a swarm of locusts forcing bank executives to rethink their predictions. For example, Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis predicted last summer that chargeoffs would start to slow by the end of last year with improvement by now, which has hardly been the case.
To combat the negative trends, credit card companies are continuing to dun their customers with lower lines of credit and other punitive measures even if they have solid credit and records of repaying on time. And they will need to amass more funds to cover losses.
If there’s any short-term light at the end of the tunnel, it could come if Barack Obama’s nearly $900 billion stimulus package is approved and funds start flowing to infrastructure rebuilding, education and tax breaks for business.
That clump you hear is the other shoe dropping.
