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Events for Oct

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The economic numbers should take a backseat to the economic words in the coming week.

In addition to several more speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including new Gov. Fred Mishkin and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, the markets could also pay close attention to two reports from the Federal Reserve. Those are the Beige Book of current economic conditions and the release of the minutes of the Sept. 20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Lower gasoline prices should be a big positive for the economy in the coming months, but falling prices could make some of the September data look misleadingly weak.

Retail sales are expected to rise just 0.1% in September, in large part because of the 13% drop in retail gasoline prices. The retail sales report is the most important data release on the calendar in the coming week.

FOMC minutes

The FOMC minutes could create the most anxiety, with investors trying to figure out where the economy and the Fed will head next. The Fed will release the minutes at 2 p.m. Wednesday.

"We suspect the FOMC minutes will focus on the Fed's heightened concern about inflation, but at the same time show policy makers are more comfortable with an unfolding slowdown in growth," said Joseph LaVorgna, U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.

"The minutes should sound similar" to the previous minutes, said Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros. That makes sense, because the wording of the post-meeting directives and the votes were very similar on Aug. 8 and Sept. 20.

In reality, the minutes will have limited utility. The meeting was three weeks ago (nearly a lifetime!), and we've heard from several Fed officials since then, including the top two: Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, both of whom stressed they are mostly concerned about inflationary threats. Neither of them suggested that they are in any hurry to raise rates again.

The takeaway from the Fed speakers and from the Sept. 20 FOMC statement has been that the Fed can likely hold interest rates steady at 5.25% for a while.

Beige Book

The Fed's Beige Book will also be closely read for a first take on how the economy is reacting to lower energy prices, and to any signs of a recovery in the housing market. After surprising declines in both business sentiment surveys from the Institute for Supply Management, any confirmation of a drop in business confidence in the Beige Book would be significant.

The Beige Book is an anecdotal bottom-up account of the economy from the 12 regional Fed banks. It will be released on Thursday at 2 p.m.

Lynn Reaser, chief economist for Bank of America Investment Advisers, said she anticipates "a general message of moderate growth in the latest survey, with lower gasoline prices helping to spur consumer retail spending and alleviate some of the cost pressures on businesses."

The Beige Book "will reinforce the picture of a more cautious business sector and weak housing market conditions," said Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, economists for Global Insight.

Retail sales

The big number of the week will come on Friday morning at 8:30 with the retail sales report for September.

The number will be "potentially misleading," said Avery Shenfeld, an economist for CIBC World Markets. The report will be "deceptively soft," said Matus, the Lehman economist. The release will "present a misleading picture," said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC.

The deception comes from the fact that retail sales are reported in nominal terms, not inflation adjusted terms. Consumers spent a lot less on gasoline last month, as the average price plunged from $3 in August to $2.60 in September.

"Look for financial markets to see through that distortion and focus on the ex-auto, ex-gasoline station figures," said CIBC's Shenfeld. Lehman expects such "core" orders to rise 0.8% in September, double August's increase.

The automakers reported a slight increase in seasonally adjusted sales in September, while chain store sales bucked a weak month from Wal-Mart to exceed expectations.

Still, "the numbers available so far haven't looked all that impressive," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs. Anecdotally, however, the consumption environment in September was quite strong. So it should be an interesting report."

Other data

The drop in gasoline prices could also have an impact on consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan's preliminary October survey comes out Friday, with economists expecting a bump to about 86 from 84.4 in September.

A similar survey by RBC Financial Group released this past Friday indicated that consumer confidence slid slightly in October. "The glow from the change in mortgage rates and gasoline has worn off," said T.J. Marta, economic and fixed income strategist for RBC Capital Markets. "People react to changes, not to levels."

The U.S. trade deficit likely declined to $66.4 billion in August from a record $68 billion in July, economists said. "Imports should be restrained by the initial impact of falling oil and gasoline prices," said David Greenlaw, an economist for Morgan Stanley. The trade figures will be release Thursday.

The drop in oil prices will also have a big impact on September's import price index, to be released on Friday. Economists expect import prices fell 1.3%.

 

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Major business events and economic events scheduled for the coming month (some dates are tentative):



MONDAY, Oct. 2
Commerce Department reports on construction spending for August; Treasury bill auction.

The Institute for Supply Management issues its report on activity in the manufacturing economy during September.



TUESDAY, Oct. 3
Automakers release their sales figures for September.



WEDNESDAY, Oct. 4
Commerce Department reports on factory orders for August.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks at the Economics Club of Washington.



THURSDAY, Oct. 5
Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims; Freddie Mac reports on mortgage rates.

The nation's largest retailers announce their sales figures for September.
Marriott International announces its third-quarter earnings.



FRIDAY, Oct. 6
Labor Department reports on employment for September; Federal Reserve reports on consumer credit for August.



TUESDAY, Oct. 10
Treasury bill auction.



WEDNESDAY, Oct. 11
Reserve releases survey of regional economic conditions.



THURSDAY, Oct. 12
Commerce Department reports on international trade for August; Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims.

Freddie Mac reports on mortgage rates.



FRIDAY, Oct. 13
Commerce Department reports on retail sales for September; business inventories for August.



MONDAY, Oct. 16
Treasury bill auction.



TUESDAY, Oct. 17
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve reports on industrial production for September; Labor Department reports on producer price index for September.



WEDNESDAY, Oct. 18
Labor Department reports on consumer price index for September; Commerce Department reports on housing starts for September.



THURSDAY, Oct. 19
Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims.

Freddie Mac reports on mortgage rates.

Conference Board reports its monthly Leading Economic Indicators Index.



MONDAY, Oct. 23
Treasury bill auction.



TUESDAY, Oct. 24
Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates.



WEDNESDAY, Oct. 25
National Association of Realtors reports on existing home sales for September.



THURSDAY, Oct. 26
Commerce Department reports on durable goods orders for Sep, and on new home sales for September.

Labor Department reports on weekly jobless claims.

Freddie Mac reports on mortgage rates.



FRIDAY, Oct. 27
Commerce Department reports on Q3 GDP, advance.



MONDAY, Oct. 30
Commerce Department reports on personal income and spending for September; Treasury bill auction.



TUESDAY, Oct. 31
Labor Department reports on employment cost index, third quarter.