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Why Stock Prices Move

Market Consensus cut both ways - it could drive pxs up or down!

Catching the trends early are more significant for Traders rather than value investors. The latter are mostly long term players. As for Traders it is a must to catch the trend early and in the later stages, reverse the catch! Cheers!!!!!

BTW Ben is a Long Term or Value Investor.

 

Yup, very true .... MC will drive a stock up to an unrealistic value. All of us have been caught in this before. This is why Benjamin Graham's valued investing comes into play. Buy early before others do, and sell when they chiong to buy (Buy before the herd!) Shiok!



Contrarianism in a nutshell (From www.fool.com)

Look to buy when others are afraid, and consider selling when the market is too excited about a stock. When you see value, you've arrived at the only decision you need to make. And if your friends or some other wisenheimer on Wall Street disagrees with you, you can always refer to my cult contrarian motto:

"The market is wrong; I am right."

 

Yes, MC is speculation of how the Market will perform in the future - it is the majority agreement of the Market future performances and thus the movements of Market Pricings. The Market often priced itself and discounted ahead of the future performances. Therefore, anything about the future is speculation in one form or another!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cheers!!!!! 

 

I think MC is speculation?

 

The one and most important factor is MARKET CONSENSUS (MC) 'cos the prices of stocks are determined by Market.

It is not always true a Company that's doing badly now will be negatively- priced by the Market. If the MC is bullish the stock px of that Company will still move up instead of down and vice versa. That's is why most investors are puzzled by the movements of some stocks. Therefore, it always pay to follow the trends! Cheers!!!

 

An interesting read for a boring Monday. Will be quiet in US markets tonite too. US economic data will be out from 2molo only ..



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Why Stock Prices Move

By Motley Fool Staff
August 25, 2006



Why do stock prices go up and down? Well, if a company's profits keep growing, its stock price will follow suit -- eventually. Corporate earnings drive stocks in the long run. In the short run, though, there are many different reasons stock prices flitter up and down. Some of these reasons matter and some don't. It does help, though, to understand the factors that can move a stock. Here are a few:

• The company's latest earnings report -- Strong and growing profit margins may push a stock up (and vice versa), while rising debt or inventory may depress it.
  
• New products or services -- Positive media coverage and strong market acceptance can prompt stock appreciation, while sluggish sales foreshadow depreciation.
  
• Earnings report pre-announcements -- If a firm expects to underperform Wall Street's quarterly earnings estimates significantly, expect the stock to fall. If the firm hints of outperformance, expect a rise.
  
• News about the company's ongoing business operations -- Landing a monstrous new long-term contract bodes well for a company, as does news that its methodical global expansion is proceeding at a rate 15% ahead of plans.

Here are some other factors that move stocks; these are things that investors would usually do well to ignore:

• Gurus on television or in financial magazines speculating that a company might be bought out at a premium. (Because it might not.)
  
• Company insiders selling shares. (Because insider sales often simply represent an executive generating a little needed or wanted money.)
  
• Soothsayers divining future stock prices by looking at charts of price movements.
  
• Crowds of people snapping up shares of "hot" stocks without understanding the industries involved.

Remember also that stock prices often rise or drop on rumors or hype -- or for no reason at all. Perhaps a bird flapped its wings extra hard flying over the Zambezi River and that set off a domino-like chain of events, eventually leading to people buying more shares than usual of a stock this morning. (This is perhaps a rather remote possibility, but hey -- you never know.)



Sometimes stocks will also rise or drop just because other stocks in the same industry are rising or dropping. And, if most of the market is slumping or surging, it can take many stocks along for the ride.



Don't sweat small day-to-day moves. Focus on quarterly earnings performance and the growth of the business over the next few years. Short-term pricing on the stock market is generally irrational, but long-term values are driven by business growth.