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STI to test 2488!

the data from China is conflicting the stock market right now eg. Dax and S& P.

 

yes, i was simply second guessing xing78. thanks  

rutheone1905      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 01:20) Posted: i think i can relate wat SGG trying to say. xing's " crash" view didnt mention wat is his basis, SGG trying to fill the gap in guessing tat he maybe referring to wars n germany against bond n no FED.   these r all the possibilities.     SGG_SGG      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 22:14) Posted: 1. natural disaster or unexpected military action 2. Germany vote against bond followed by Fed no QE3.

 

will share where sti is heading in the seminar.

 

Agree with yipyip!

 

The market is cyclical, it go up and down. Sometime TA maybe hint u, i think the correction is coming soon.. support 2850~2900 , MACD near term at negative , 10days EMA crossed below 20days EMA.. Up or Down ? U decide it , good luck

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ESTI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=b%2Cp%2Ce10%2Ce20&a=m26-12-9&c=

 

Market has already factored in QE3 so it makes no sense to go long when dow is 10% or less than its all time high. My view for a crash is when main stream news go euphoria about dow breaking all time high without any solution of the problem.

rutheone1905      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 14:04) Posted: me too more bull then bear. during this time of very choppy period i restrict my bets on dividend blues to be on the safe side.   skk888      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 09:53) Posted: Good analysis on QE. Let's see their decision in the upcoming FOMC meeting. I am optimistic also because several Fed presidents openly supported Ben around Jackson hole period and suggested an ongoing QE which can be adjusted according to economic data, instead of dropping a one time "bomb" after hitting problems. I think the market has taken this to the price and the size of the QE may not matter, but it's about whether the Fed is determined to intervene will they reach their employment targets. Anyway that's just my views. Thanks everyone

 

me too more bull then bear.

during this time of very choppy period i restrict my bets on dividend blues to be on the safe side.

 

skk888      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 09:53) Posted: Good analysis on QE. Let's see their decision in the upcoming FOMC meeting. I am optimistic also because several Fed presidents openly supported Ben around Jackson hole period and suggested an ongoing QE which can be adjusted according to economic data, instead of dropping a one time "bomb" after hitting problems. I think the market has taken this to the price and the size of the QE may not matter, but it's about whether the Fed is determined to intervene will they reach their employment targets. Anyway that's just my views. Thanks everyone. rutheone1905      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 01:12) Posted: i think he may be referring to mkt correction if QE3 wont come on Sept 12/14. wat i think is from now till fiscal cliff, mkt will be quite choppy.   if one is long term investor like jim rogers then shouldnt be a problem becos these longies looks at different aspects however if one is " mao" big big n fast in fast out type then whether QE3 come in Sept or not really matters. for speculators like us we have to consider: 1) when the QE3 (sept 12/14 or oct 23/25?) will come n HOW MUCH IT INVOLVES.  so far no mention abt the size of QE but mkt alrdy keep trying to chiong since Aug's FOMC. wat if   no mention abt QE in  Sept's FOMCthen mkt will do another drastic adjustment again. then all eyes will be on Oct's FOMC.......or let say QE does come in either in Sept or Oct, the mkt will chiong ofcos but later ppl will start to look at the size of the package n find reasons to cause the mkt to dive.   therefore  during this period of choppy mkt situation actually is best time to bet, forget abt TA just gut feeling.   2) the short duration between US election 6/11/2012 to fiscal cliff the president will have to convince both parties to re-align the previous agreement on taxation n expenditure to avoid FCliff. however given abt 1.5 months it will be a close miss or total disaster (unlikely). so the mkt will again find reasons to be choppy which again is good also. no analysts can be sure when the QE will come, not to mention if there is another QE.   there r even speculations in bloomberg talk cxxk sessions, some guests even mentioned tat there may be totally no QE as uncle Ben trying to give false hopes to drag on till slow natural recovery.

 

Good analysis on QE. Let's see their decision in the upcoming FOMC meeting. I am optimistic also because several Fed presidents openly supported Ben around Jackson hole period and suggested an ongoing QE which can be adjusted according to economic data, instead of dropping a one time "bomb" after hitting problems. I think the market has taken this to the price and the size of the QE may not matter, but it's about whether the Fed is determined to intervene will they reach their employment targets. Anyway that's just my views.

Thanks everyone.

rutheone1905      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 01:12) Posted: i think he may be referring to mkt correction if QE3 wont come on Sept 12/14. wat i think is from now till fiscal cliff, mkt will be quite choppy.   if one is long term investor like jim rogers then shouldnt be a problem becos these longies looks at different aspects however if one is " mao" big big n fast in fast out type then whether QE3 come in Sept or not really matters. for speculators like us we have to consider: 1) when the QE3 (sept 12/14 or oct 23/25?) will come n HOW MUCH IT INVOLVES.  so far no mention abt the size of QE but mkt alrdy keep trying to chiong since Aug's FOMC. wat if   no mention abt QE in  Sept's FOMCthen mkt will do another drastic adjustment again. then all eyes will be on Oct's FOMC.......or let say QE does come in either in Sept or Oct, the mkt will chiong ofcos but later ppl will start to look at the size of the package n find reasons to cause the mkt to dive.   therefore  during this period of choppy mkt situation actually is best time to bet, forget abt TA just gut feeling.   2) the short duration between US election 6/11/2012 to fiscal cliff the president will have to convince both parties to re-align the previous agreement on taxation n expenditure to avoid FCliff. however given abt 1.5 months it will be a close miss or total disaster (unlikely). so the mkt will again find reasons to be choppy which again is good also. no analysts can be sure when the QE will come, not to mention if there is another QE.   there r even speculations in bloomberg talk cxxk sessions, some guests even mentioned tat there may be totally no QE as uncle Ben trying to give false hopes to drag on till slow natural recovery.     skk888      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 00:23) Posted: My eyes didn't fail me. I just looked again, there were no support on how the conclusions of a "crash" were made. For example, if you say QE3 may not come, why? And on what basis? I gave my reason on QE3 coming or will be executed based on election polls. What's yours or xing"s? The rationale for having support enables others who are reading this forum to be fully informed and look from two perspectives, before deciding which to follow. I'm not trying to say that you guys are not right, but we need support to assess the probability of each happening

 

Good comments all.

 

i think i can relate wat SGG trying to say.

xing's " crash" view didnt mention wat is his basis, SGG trying to fill the gap in guessing tat he maybe referring to wars n germany against bond n no FED.   these r all the possibilities.    

SGG_SGG      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 22:14) Posted: 1. natural disaster or unexpected military action 2. Germany vote against bond followed by Fed no QE3.

 

i think he may be referring to mkt correction if QE3 wont come on Sept 12/14.

wat i think is from now till fiscal cliff, mkt will be quite choppy.   if one is long term investor like jim rogers then shouldnt be a problem becos these longies looks at different aspects however if one is " mao" big big n fast in fast out type then whether QE3 come in Sept or not really matters.

for speculators like us we have to consider:

1) when the QE3 (sept 12/14 or oct 23/25?) will come n HOW MUCH IT INVOLVES. 

so far no mention abt the size of QE but mkt alrdy keep trying to chiong since Aug's FOMC. wat if   no mention abt QE in  Sept's FOMCthen mkt will do another drastic adjustment again. then all eyes will be on Oct's FOMC.......or let say QE does come in either in Sept or Oct, the mkt will chiong ofcos but later ppl will start to look at the size of the package n find reasons to cause the mkt to dive.   therefore  during this period of choppy mkt situation actually is best time to bet, forget abt TA just gut feeling.  

2) the short duration between US election 6/11/2012 to fiscal cliff

the president will have to convince both parties to re-align the previous agreement on taxation n expenditure to avoid FCliff. however given abt 1.5 months it will be a close miss or total disaster (unlikely). so the mkt will again find reasons to be choppy which again is good also.

no analysts can be sure when the QE will come, not to mention if there is another QE.   there r even speculations in bloomberg talk cxxk sessions, some guests even mentioned tat there may be totally no QE as uncle Ben trying to give false hopes to drag on till slow natural recovery.  

 

skk888      ( Date: 08-Sep-2012 00:23) Posted: My eyes didn't fail me. I just looked again, there were no support on how the conclusions of a "crash" were made. For example, if you say QE3 may not come, why? And on what basis? I gave my reason on QE3 coming or will be executed based on election polls. What's yours or xing"s? The rationale for having support enables others who are reading this forum to be fully informed and look from two perspectives, before deciding which to follow. I'm not trying to say that you guys are not right, but we need support to assess the probability of each happening. SGG_SGG      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 23:30) Posted: your eyes something wrong? i am speculating possibilities that xing78 may be looking at.

 

My eyes didn't fail me. I just looked again, there were no support on how the conclusions of a "crash" were made. For example, if you say QE3 may not come, why? And on what basis?

I gave my reason on QE3 coming or will be executed based on election polls. What's yours or xing"s?


The rationale for having support enables others who are reading this forum to be fully informed and look from two perspectives, before deciding which to follow.

I'm not trying to say that you guys are not right, but we need support to assess the probability of each happening.

SGG_SGG      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 23:30) Posted: your eyes something wrong? i am speculating possibilities that xing78 may be looking at.  skk888      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 22:29) Posted: Unexpected things how can be included in prediction? Then it will be down forever because unexpected military actions and disasters can happen at all times. What if some counties find vast amount of gas or oil out of a sudden? Hurhur.. Germany vote against Bond buying could be a problem because it risks the breakup of euro. But like I said analysts are optimistic about the constitution court ruling, while you guys are against, so it's a bet but it's not a guarantee that it will "crash". US no QE3 is also a risk to its economy if it's not done by year end. But if the democrats win, the chances are high. They are leading the polls now btw. So again it's a bet, it can be a boost or be a "crash". There is no confirmed crash from what I see (as put as a sure to come from your posts). There may be corrections but "crash" is a strong word

 

your eyes something wrong? i am speculating possibilities that xing78 may be looking at. 

skk888      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 22:29) Posted: Unexpected things how can be included in prediction? Then it will be down forever because unexpected military actions and disasters can happen at all times. What if some counties find vast amount of gas or oil out of a sudden? Hurhur.. Germany vote against Bond buying could be a problem because it risks the breakup of euro. But like I said analysts are optimistic about the constitution court ruling, while you guys are against, so it's a bet but it's not a guarantee that it will "crash". US no QE3 is also a risk to its economy if it's not done by year end. But if the democrats win, the chances are high. They are leading the polls now btw. So again it's a bet, it can be a boost or be a "crash". There is no confirmed crash from what I see (as put as a sure to come from your posts). There may be corrections but "crash" is a strong word. SGG_SGG      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 22:14) Posted: 1. natural disaster or unexpected military action 2. Germany vote against bond followed by Fed no QE3.

 

Unexpected things how can be included in prediction? Then it will be down forever because unexpected military actions and disasters can happen at all times. What if some counties find vast amount of gas or oil out of a sudden? Hurhur..

Germany vote against Bond buying could be a problem because it risks the breakup of euro. But like I said analysts are optimistic about the constitution court ruling, while you guys are against, so it's a bet but it's not a guarantee that it will "crash".

US no QE3 is also a risk to its economy if it's not done by year end. But if the democrats win, the chances are high. They are leading the polls now btw. So again it's a bet, it can be a boost or be a "crash".

There is no confirmed crash from what I see (as put as a sure to come from your posts). There may be corrections but "crash" is a strong word.

SGG_SGG      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 22:14) Posted: 1. natural disaster or unexpected military action 2. Germany vote against bond followed by Fed no QE3.

 

1. natural disaster or unexpected military action

2. Germany vote against bond followed by Fed no QE3.

 

I don't really see any crash. If you say last year this time, yes. Euro was on the verge of breaking up. Now they are much more united.

US economy did not really deteriorate but growth is slow.

China slows down in their growth but they are still growing btw.. They have the resources to stimulate the economy if they wish.

What will cause the crash you predict??? Hmm

xing78      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 21:44) Posted: a crash is just around the corner in my view. dunt understand why so many bulls still buying... lol tedsokny      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 21:23) Posted: im cautiously opti too...any rejects will spiral the global markets into further disarray so guess the ang mos know they cant afford any failure n delays, of cos bundesbank chief discontent but stil got to bear with it...they just need to bite the bullets...in my view europe is in a greater danger compare to US as it is slowly very slowly creeping bk...i dun see a crash like 09..but surely major correction somehow...im more opti abt china...   S& P 500 10% From Record as Birinyi Sees Bears Capitulate http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/s-p-500-within-10-of-record-as-birinyi-sees-bears-capitulating.html  skk888  Member Posted: 07-Sep-2012 21:14   x 0    x 0 Not only that, it's also about the US economy. Jobs data just released, people speculate QE3 will come soon.  Europe may pose a market risk next week when German court rule on whether ECB can buy the bonds. So far most analysts are optimistic.

 

a crash is just around the corner in my view. dunt understand why so many bulls still buying... lol

tedsokny      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 21:23) Posted: im cautiously opti too...any rejects will spiral the global markets into further disarray so guess the ang mos know they cant afford any failure n delays, of cos bundesbank chief discontent but stil got to bear with it...they just need to bite the bullets...in my view europe is in a greater danger compare to US as it is slowly very slowly creeping bk...i dun see a crash like 09..but surely major correction somehow...im more opti abt china...   S& P 500 10% From Record as Birinyi Sees Bears Capitulate http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/s-p-500-within-10-of-record-as-birinyi-sees-bears-capitulating.html  skk888  Member Posted: 07-Sep-2012 21:14   x 0    x 0 Not only that, it's also about the US economy. Jobs data just released, people speculate QE3 will come soon.  Europe may pose a market risk next week when German court rule on whether ECB can buy the bonds. So far most analysts are optimistic.

 

im cautiously opti too...any rejects will spiral the global markets into further disarray so guess the ang mos know they cant afford any failure n delays, of cos bundesbank chief discontent but stil got to bear with it...they just need to bite the bullets...in my view europe is in a greater danger compare to US as it is slowly very slowly creeping bk...i dun see a crash like 09..but surely major correction somehow...im more opti abt china...

  S& P 500 10% From Record as Birinyi Sees Bears Capitulate

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/s-p-500-within-10-of-record-as-birinyi-sees-bears-capitulating.html 

skk888  Member	Posted: 07-Sep-2012 21:14
x 0    x 0	Not only that, it's also about the US economy. Jobs data just released, people speculate QE3 will come soon.  Europe may pose a market risk next week when German court rule on whether ECB can buy the bonds. So far most analysts are optimistic.

 

 

Not only that, it's also about the US economy. Jobs data just released, people speculate QE3 will come soon.

Europe may pose a market risk next week when German court rule on whether ECB can buy the bonds. So far most analysts are optimistic.

yipyip      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 21:05) Posted: Is a good day that everyone buy the ECB's OMT purchase bonds news, all markets gain about 1~2%. How about the forecast that eurozone economy will shrink by 0.4% (previous call in June is -0.1%) news? Muted today.. Next week sell on it? yipyip      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 01:58) Posted: STI go up or down? The announcement came as the ECB slashed its forecast for growth in the eurozone for both this year and next, it said, as the debt crisis increasingly takes it toll on the 17-nation bloc..... The ECB said its staff expects the economy to --> shrink by 0.4 percent in 2012  --> and then grow by 0.5 percent in 2013, a reduction from its previous call in June of minus 0.1 percent for this year and plus 1.0 percent next year.

 

Is a good day that everyone buy the ECB's OMT purchase bonds news, all markets gain about 1~2%.

How about the forecast that eurozone economy will shrink by 0.4% (previous call in June is -0.1%) news? Muted today.. Next week sell on it?

yipyip      ( Date: 07-Sep-2012 01:58) Posted: STI go up or down? The announcement came as the ECB slashed its forecast for growth in the eurozone for both this year and next, it said, as the debt crisis increasingly takes it toll on the 17-nation bloc..... The ECB said its staff expects the economy to --> shrink by 0.4 percent in 2012  --> and then grow by 0.5 percent in 2013, a reduction from its previous call in June of minus 0.1 percent for this year and plus 1.0 percent next year.