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Landwind Medical Holdings (LWMH SP , TRADING BUY - Upgraded,
S$0.38, Target: S$0.455)
3QFY06 results - Worth a second look
3Q06 net profit of Rmb12m (-44% yoy) came in above expectations as the
delay in sales was largely confined to the proprietary products segment.
Landwind delivered decent quarter revenues of Rmb88m (+19% yoy), despite a
less favourable sales mix in its value-added distribution business. EBITDA
margin fell 16%pts yoy as expansion costs ballooned but 9M06 net profit
(Rmb36m) already formed 79% of our previous FY06 forecast. We kept our
FY07-08 estimates intact but upped FY06 numbers by 8% to account for
realisation of delayed sales in 4Q06. Target price maintained at S$0.455,
based on DCF valuation (11% WACC; 3% terminal growth rate). We see
proprietary products segment growing 33% yoy in FY07, on the back of
regulatory changes favouring local manufacturers. Stock oversold post last
week?s profit warning and current price presents a re-entry opportunity.
Upgrade to Trading Buy (from Underperform).
The price has fallen below CIMB-GK's target. Expect another round of selling when results are out on Fri. May fall to around $0.30 level.
CIMB-GK has downgraded it recommendation to "underperform" from "outperform" and slashed its target price to $0.455 from $0.80, citing the company's poor outlook due to an expected dismal performance for the second half of 2006.
The distributor of medical diagnostic imaging equipment in China earlier warned that third-quarter profits, to be released on Friday, will be lower than a year ago due to weaker margins and higher operating cost. Apart from lower margins from the Philips and Siemens ultrasound machines it distributed during the quarter, the company said the award of some of the deals it is pursuing in China have been also delayed.
"The hit to its value-added distribution business segment in second half 2006 cut our earnings estimates by 45% for 2006 forecasts and 15-17% for 2007-2008," CIMB-GK said in a client note.
"While we believe that Landwind Medical possesses a unique business model that warrants a play on the Chinese medical sector, we think that near term volatility for the sector presents a bleak picture for the group."
From Kim Eng :-
Landwind issued an earnings warning yesterday. The company expects 3Q to be weaker on a YoY basis due to lower margins, downward pressure in selling prices, delays in sales confirmation and increases in operating expenses.
The news is likely to result in a fall below the current trading band of $0.465- 0.48. The chart indicates an initial probe of $0.44. Below that, the next technical level is $0.405-0.42. Trading Sell.
The news is likely to result in a fall below the current trading band of $0.465- 0.48. The chart indicates an initial probe of $0.44. Below that, the next technical level is $0.405-0.42. Trading Sell.
This is round 1. For such profit warning cases, usually there is another round of selling when results are out. Better steer clear.
That is why the price drop 0.08c in 1 day !
Profit warning
LANDWIND MEDICAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (Co. Reg. No. 200500217N)
BUSINESS UPDATE
The Board of Directors of LANDWIND MEDICAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (the "Company") would like to provide an update on its business, in anticipation of the announcement of its financial results for the third quarter ended 30 September 2006 ("3Q FY2006").
While the Company has experienced a satisfactory sales level for its value-added distribution services, Landwind proprietary products and service income, net profit after tax for 3Q FY2006 is expected to be below that achieved in the year ago period.
This is due to several factors:
- ? A change in sales mix for its Philips colour ultrasound equipment, where more models with relatively lower margins were sold.
- ? The launch of Siemens? new B&W ultrasound models, which caused a downward pressure on the selling prices of the other current Siemens models. Thus, the Company registered lower sales, coupled with relatively higher costs, for this range of current models.
- ? Some delays in sales confirmation due to a longer administrative process for procurement from its customers, as a result of the PRC government?s initiative in April 2006 to curtail ?kickbacks? or corruption within the medical equipment sector. Such delays are expected to prevail for a number of months.
- ? Increase in operating expenses in line with the Group?s overall expansion, including:
- o Increase in the number of sales offices from 22 in 3Q FY2005 to 28 in 3Q FY2006, thereby increasing the staff costs, marketing & related sales activities expenses.
Increase in the number of sales offices from 22 in 3Q FY2005 to 28 in 3Q FY2006, thereby increasing the staff costs, marketing & related sales activities expenses.
- o Overall increase in headcount, mostly from the distribution and R&D departments, which is in line with the Group?s plan to expand the manufacture and sales of its own line of products.
Overall increase in headcount, mostly from the distribution and R&D departments, which is in line with the Group?s plan to expand the manufacture and sales of its own line of products.
- o Other increase in administrative expenses included listing and compliances cost as well as regulatory approval costs for the Group?s own line of products e.g. CE marking, ISO compliance and SFDA. The bulk of these products are expected to be rolled out towards end of FY2006 and first half of FY2007.
Despite the above factors, the Group?s overall sales and gross profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2006 (in absolute amounts) have improved as compared to the same period last year.
Other increase in administrative expenses included listing and compliances cost as well as regulatory approval costs for the Group?s own line of products e.g. CE marking, ISO compliance and SFDA. The bulk of these products are expected to be rolled out towards end of FY2006 and first half of FY2007.
Despite the above factors, the Group?s overall sales and gross profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2006 (in absolute amounts) have improved as compared to the same period last year.
LANDWIND MEDICAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (the "Company") would like to provide an update on its business, in anticipation of the announcement of its financial results for the third quarter ended 30 September 2006 ("3Q FY2006").
While the Company has experienced a satisfactory sales level for its value-added distribution services, Landwind proprietary products and service income, net profit after tax for 3Q FY2006 is expected to be below that achieved in the year ago period.
This is due to several factors:
- ? A change in sales mix for its Philips colour ultrasound equipment, where more models with relatively lower margins were sold.
- ? The launch of Siemens? new B&W ultrasound models, which caused a downward pressure on the selling prices of the other current Siemens models. Thus, the Company registered lower sales, coupled with relatively higher costs, for this range of current models.
- ? Some delays in sales confirmation due to a longer administrative process for procurement from its customers, as a result of the PRC government?s initiative in April 2006 to curtail ?kickbacks? or corruption within the medical equipment sector. Such delays are expected to prevail for a number of months.
- ? Increase in operating expenses in line with the Group?s overall expansion, including:
- o Increase in the number of sales offices from 22 in 3Q FY2005 to 28 in 3Q FY2006, thereby increasing the staff costs, marketing & related sales activities expenses.
Increase in the number of sales offices from 22 in 3Q FY2005 to 28 in 3Q FY2006, thereby increasing the staff costs, marketing & related sales activities expenses.
- o Overall increase in headcount, mostly from the distribution and R&D departments, which is in line with the Group?s plan to expand the manufacture and sales of its own line of products.
Overall increase in headcount, mostly from the distribution and R&D departments, which is in line with the Group?s plan to expand the manufacture and sales of its own line of products.
- o Other increase in administrative expenses included listing and compliances cost as well as regulatory approval costs for the Group?s own line of products e.g. CE marking, ISO compliance and SFDA. The bulk of these products are expected to be rolled out towards end of FY2006 and first half of FY2007.
Despite the above factors, the Group?s overall sales and gross profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2006 (in absolute amounts) have improved as compared to the same period last year.
Other increase in administrative expenses included listing and compliances cost as well as regulatory approval costs for the Group?s own line of products e.g. CE marking, ISO compliance and SFDA. The bulk of these products are expected to be rolled out towards end of FY2006 and first half of FY2007.
Despite the above factors, the Group?s overall sales and gross profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2006 (in absolute amounts) have improved as compared to the same period last year.
o Increase in the number of sales offices from 22 in 3Q FY2005 to 28 in 3Q FY2006, thereby increasing the staff costs, marketing & related sales activities expenses.
Increase in the number of sales offices from 22 in 3Q FY2005 to 28 in 3Q FY2006, thereby increasing the staff costs, marketing & related sales activities expenses.
o Overall increase in headcount, mostly from the distribution and R&D departments, which is in line with the Group?s plan to expand the manufacture and sales of its own line of products.
Overall increase in headcount, mostly from the distribution and R&D departments, which is in line with the Group?s plan to expand the manufacture and sales of its own line of products.
o Other increase in administrative expenses included listing and compliances cost as well as regulatory approval costs for the Group?s own line of products e.g. CE marking, ISO compliance and SFDA. The bulk of these products are expected to be rolled out towards end of FY2006 and first half of FY2007.
Despite the above factors, the Group?s overall sales and gross profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2006 (in absolute amounts) have improved as compared to the same period last year.
Other increase in administrative expenses included listing and compliances cost as well as regulatory approval costs for the Group?s own line of products e.g. CE marking, ISO compliance and SFDA. The bulk of these products are expected to be rolled out towards end of FY2006 and first half of FY2007.
Despite the above factors, the Group?s overall sales and gross profit for the nine months ended 30 September 2006 (in absolute amounts) have improved as compared to the same period last year.
The Group remains optimistic of its performance moving forward, and continues to execute the four components of its growth plan, including:-
- ? scaling up operations and growth in the PRC with the appointment of more agents and resellers;
- ? expanding sales in the overseas markets through the appointment of agents;
- ? increasing distribution product portfolio; and
- ? leveraging on R&D to enlarge its range of proprietary products.
The full details of the Group?s financial results for 3Q FY2006 will be released in November 2006.
By order of the Board
LANDWIND MEDICAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
KATHERINE CHEW LAY HONG
COMPANY SECRETARY
6 November 2006
The initial public offering of the Company?s shares was sponsored by Westcomb Capital Pte. Ltd.
Extracted from my blog http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com
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[B]Technical Analysis[/B]
Landwind broke out from a flag and pennant formation on 10 May 06 with a spinning top candlestick on high volumes but prices failed to close above the resistance at 56 cents despite the bullish indicators. The next day, prices broke above this 56 cents resistance on even higher volume and also cut above the Parabolic SAR indicator. Technical target on breakout of flag and pennant formation is 69 cents. Negated if prices fall below support at 53.5 cents.
Resistances: 60 cents, 62.5 cents and 64 cents (all time high)
Supports: 56 cents (resistance turned support), 53.5 cents (support during pennant formation), 51 cents (EMA 50)
.............continued at my blog
Extracted from my blog http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com
[b]Fundamental Analysis[/b]
Value added distribution services sales increased by 57.3% partly due to Landwind obtaining de facto sole distribution rights for Fujifilmâ??s FCR and DRY Imagers equipment for seven provinces in the PRC on 19 Dec 2005. Landwind is also de facto sole distributor for Siemens and has distributor rights for Philips. Landwind proprietary products sales increased by 67.6%, attributable mainly to added emphasis on Landwind black and white ultrasound and an award of a tender from a customer.
7 more proprietary products are to be rolled out for 2006, Landwind plans to increase sales of proprietary products as a percentage of total sales to improve gross margins. Also revenue growth to be driven by increased overseas exports to countries/continents like India, Africa and Central Europe. CE Mark Approval for new product NeuCrystalâ?˘ C30 will also boost Landwind's reputation for proprietary products.
1Q FY06 figures lower than 4Q FY05 figures due to seasonality effect where lower sales are recorded in the first two months of the financial year as hospitals seldom place sales orders during the Lunar New Year festive seasons in January and February.
................continued at my blog
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