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A small consolation - one Director (Low Poh Kuan) bought in @ 1.20 on 3 Jan 07. Though $ down-trending on big volume, strong fundamental has not changed - @$1.16 discount to NTA = 22% (NTA $1.49) - vs most other property counters are trading @ >NTA. So rather than being disheartened, I will be accumulating even more if it drop to 1.10 in the next few days or weeks. Just a personal opinion.
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/560dd4b031b97d27482571b20043d38c/8d107f3043763ddb4825725300216aee?OpenDocument
Prices held steady @ $1.30 throughout past 2 weeks though volume is very low, especially today. But after tomorrow's Sentosa IR results, hopefully interest on property n construction stocks goes up again.
| Last | Trades | Volume | BuyVol | Mid | SellVol |
| 1.280 | 2 | 11,000 | 11,000 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.290 | 1 | 9,000 | 0 | 0 | 9,000 |
| 1.300 | 4 | 24,000 | 0 | 0 | 24,000 |
| TOTAL | 7 | 44,000 | 11,000 | 0 | 33,000 |
| 16:57:30 | Buy Up | 1.300 | - | 40 | |
| 16:52:59 | Buy Up | 1.300 | - | 38 | |
| 16:13:13 | Buy Up | 1.300 | - | 21 | |
| 16:09:29 | Buy Up | 1.290 | -0.010 | 20 |
|
Again some late buying to push the price up....Some thoughts..
Current trend looks similar to Sept, except that it has wider price deviation.
Take a look at Bollinger Bands, MACD and Moving Average Cross Over, and you may get some clues.
Comments pls.
Just 7 mths ago LKHSp bought Duchess Court for $582 psf per plot ratio vs. Ho Bee's recent enbloc purchase of Holland Hill @ $749 psf. Both properties are located in close proximity @ prime D10. This translate to a paper profit of abt $35.6m in on the land alone for LKHSp consortium basing on recent transacted price. LKHSp 30% share of paper profit on the land = $10.7m, excluding additional development profits when Condo are built & sold. So far no news on Duchess Court launch date, must be tactically holding back for better time.
| Ho Bee | LKHSp | Paper Profit | |
| Holland Hill | Duchess Ct | @ HB price | |
| Date of purchase | 29-Nov-06 | 4-May-06 | |
| Land tenure | Freehold | 999 yrs | |
| Permissible Gross Fl Area | 389,643 | 213,150 | |
| Purchase price | $ 292,000,000 | $ 104,000,000 | $ 35,596,050 |
| $ per sq ft per plot ratio | |||
| (inclusive of devt charge) | $ 749 | $ 582 | $ 167 |
| Development charge payable | No | Yes | |
| Shareholding % | 50% | 30% | $ 10,678,815 |
| Other shareholders | |||
| MCL / UOL | 50% | 70% | $ 24,917,235 |
Today > half transacted above $1.32, but last minute 10 lots sold down @ $1.32. So buying is still quite strong. Also, received winds that LKHSp project @North Exchange Condo will be launched in 1Q07 (originally targetted for end-2006) but the push back may be a blessing in disguise as property prices are trending up into 2007.
| Last | Trades | Volume | BuyVol | Mid | SellVol |
| 1.300 | 5 | 43,000 | 15,000 | 0 | 28,000 |
| 1.310 | 14 | 96,000 | 28,000 | 0 | 68,000 |
| 1.320 | 7 | 86,000 | 16,000 | 0 | 70,000 |
| 1.330 | 11 | 100,000 | 20,000 | 0 | 80,000 |
| 1.340 | 17 | 109,000 | 15,000 | 0 | 94,000 |
| 1.350 | 1 | 35,000 | 0 | 0 | 35,000 |
| TOTAL | 55 | 469,000 | 94,000 | 0 | 375,000 |
For reading pleasure of property bulls.
Daily Review
30 November 2006
LIM & TAN SECURITIES PTE LTD
PROPERTY
�� The government is expected to launch the
tender, the former NCO Club facing Raffles Hotel)
sometime next month, which we expect to get investors
all excited again over the property market in
�� And the numbers are starting to hit us:
- Size of land is 3.5 hectares (ha), almost twice
Orchard Turn?s (OT) 1.8 ha. (OT is currently
being jointly developed by CapitaLand and Sun
Hung Kai of HK.)
- Its plot ratio is however much lower at 4.2X but
even so, gross floor area (GFA) of 1.5m sf is larger
than OT?s 1.2m.
- Given that
OT, which is part residential i.e the commercial
space of Beach would be at least twice as big as OT.
- Applying say $700psf of land cost per sf of built-up,
the site can be valued at some $1bn, not that far
from OT?s $1.38bn.
- The authorities are estimating 655 high-end hotel
rooms to be built on this site. (We cannot recall
when a hotel of this size was last built!)
- The
major MRT lines: the North East and Circle Lines,
as well as the new Esplanade Rapid Transit System
(RTS), which will be operational in 2010.
�� We like to believe this is the kind of project that will
attract the Middle Eastern investors, especially when it
includes a hotel element.
�� Recall in late October, Emirates Investment Group
(EIG) had expressed interest in investing S$1 bln in a
hotel development in
here, to be the third in the world, after
is co-owner of Four Seasons Group, which has
alliance with Colony Capital, which bought Raffles
Hotel and other hotel assets from Raffles Holdings.
�� Note also
East, with PM having just concluded his first-ever visit to
�� Some of the companies that will be anxious about the
outcome:
- CMT/CCT, which recently jointly paid S$2.085
bln for
- Shaw Group which owns
-
tower;
- (and if investors are excited enough,) Hong Fok,
whose Concourse is at the other end of Beach
Road. The excitement may however have to wait
for the eventual tender of the former
police station.
�� There are two more plots in the Beach / Bugis area due
for redevelopment in the not-too-distant future, and it
will be interesting to guess which of the 2 sites the
government would put up for tender first: the piece of
land at
or the former
Seems like this buyer surfaced during market sell-down yesterday otherwise difficult to pick up few hundred lots @ good price as there are fewer & fewer sellers now.
Today's closing up 1c. @ $1.30, slow & steady man.
| Last | Trades | Volume | BuyVol | Mid | SellVol |
| 1.290 | 9 | 68,000 | 37,000 | 0 | 31,000 |
| 1.300 | 1 | 8,000 | 0 | 0 | 8,000 |
| TOTAL | 10 | 76,000 | 37,000 | 0 | 39,000 |
Yes Jessie, you r right abt this1- is a wierd counter. Most likely a controlled counter 'cos available total market cap only 130m shares, that's why the TA people are clueless here. Just wonder who was the buyer yesterday, a brave guy to catch a falling knife or else he knows something that others don't. Must be patient with this 1 - when the owner (GCB) move in, it will go sky high. I've been holding since mid-2005, no complaint.
The 3rd Casino, if built would most probably be @ this billionaire island (Southern Island) for the super rich tourists. Good news to construction + property bulls.
Daily Review, 29 November 2006
LIM & TAN SECURITIES PTE LTD
Daily Review 29 November 2006
PROPERTY Still Sizzling
�� Prime residential market remains buoyant, with all
85 units of Hoi Hup?s Ford @ Holland snapped up
within one hour when launched yesterday.Prime residential market remains buoyant, with all
85 units of Hoi Hup?s Ford @ Holland snapped up
within one hour when launched yesterday.Hoi Hup?s Ford @ Holland snapped up
within one hour when launched yesterday.
�� Merrill Lynch has signed up for the entire new 6-
storey harbor-front building (200,000 sf) thatMerrill Lynch has signed up for the entire new 6-
storey harbor-front building (200,000 sf) that
Mapletree is building at Telok Blangah. This marks
the second biggest lease agreement in Singapore,
after Deutsche Bank?s lease at One Raffles Quay.is building at Telok Blangah. This marks
the second biggest lease agreement in Singapore,
after Deutsche Bank?s lease at One Raffles Quay.Deutsche Bank?s lease at One Raffles Quay.
�� Tuan Sing said it will proceed with the revised bid
for 25% owned Grand Hotel Australia, despite
the latter?s management?s intention to sell the assets,
ie all 7 hotels it owns. (Tuan Sing?s offer is conditional
on, among others, that management of Grand Hotel,
not proceeding with asset disposal.) We believe
this only reflects confidence of all parties involved
in the bright prospects for hotel assets in Australia.
This bodes well for Stamford Land, which differs
from Grand Hotel in that it owns and manages its
own hotels, unlike Grand Hotel, which is essentially
a hotel owner.Tuan Sing said it will proceed with the revised bid
for 25% owned Grand Hotel Australia, despite
the latter?s management?s intention to sell the assets,
ie all 7 hotels it owns. (Tuan Sing?s offer is conditional
on, among others, that management of Grand Hotel,
not proceeding with asset disposal.) We believe
this only reflects confidence of all parties involved
in the bright prospects for hotel assets in Australia.
This bodes well for Stamford Land, which differs
from Grand Hotel in that it owns and manages its
own hotels, unlike Grand Hotel, which is essentially
a hotel owner.Grand Hotel Australia, despite
the latter?s management?s intention to sell the assets,
ie all 7 hotels it owns. (Tuan Sing?s offer is conditional
on, among others, that management of Grand Hotel,
not proceeding with asset disposal.) We believe
this only reflects confidence of all parties involved
in the bright prospects for hotel assets in Australia.
This bodes well for Stamford Land, which differs
from Grand Hotel in that it owns and manages its
own hotels, unlike Grand Hotel, which is essentially
a hotel owner.Stamford Land, which differs
from Grand Hotel in that it owns and manages its
own hotels, unlike Grand Hotel, which is essentially
a hotel owner.
�� Just as many may have thought supply of new land
at Sentosa was running low, and hence record
prices achieved in recent months, the Singapore
Tourism Board plans to launch in Q1 ?07, a Request
for Concepts for the Southern Islands, comprising
St John?s, Kusu, Lazarus, Sisters, Renget and Kias
Islands adding up to 140 hectares of land. Plans for
a haven for billionaires: 300 housing plots and a
luxury hotel, have already been proposed.Just as many may have thought supply of new land
at Sentosa was running low, and hence record
prices achieved in recent months, the Singapore
Tourism Board plans to launch in Q1 ?07, a Request
for Concepts for the Southern Islands, comprising
St John?s, Kusu, Lazarus, Sisters, Renget and Kias
Islands adding up to 140 hectares of land. Plans for
a haven for billionaires: 300 housing plots and a
luxury hotel, have already been proposed.
�� What is particularly worth noting is the comment
by Kok Sing Soon, STB?s Director of Leisure Planning
that we do no want to dissipate tourism all
over the island. This is a significant lesson we
have learned, especially given the average short day
of tourists in this country, which suggests the
wisdom of concentrating tourist attractions in and
around Marina / Sentosa.What is particularly worth noting is the comment
by Kok Sing Soon, STB?s Director of Leisure Planning
that we do no want to dissipate tourism all
over the island. This is a significant lesson we
have learned, especially given the average short day
of tourists in this country, which suggests the
wisdom of concentrating tourist attractions in and
around Marina / Sentosa.we do no want to dissipate tourism all
over the island. This is a significant lesson we
have learned, especially given the average short day
of tourists in this country, which suggests the
wisdom of concentrating tourist attractions in and
around Marina / Sentosa.. This is a significant lesson we
have learned, especially given the average short day
of tourists in this country, which suggests the
wisdom of concentrating tourist attractions in and
around Marina / Sentosa.
This sounds like music to property bulls - going forward the level of speculation is expected to rise some more. Good luck to all LKHSp fans.!
Property : sub-sales of
? The number of sub-sale deals for private apartments and condos (often used as a gauge of speculation in the real estate market) hit 233 in 3Q06, an increase of 69% from 2Q06 and the highest quarterly figure since 2001.
? However, the 233 sub-sale deals in 3Q06 only accounted for just over 6% of the total 3,827 caveats lodged for private apartments and condos during the period. For the first nine months of 2006, sub-sale deals only totaled 481 or about 4.1% of 11,594 total caveats for condos and apartments in the period, which is a far cry from a sub-sale market share of 22.4% (or 3,410 sub-sale deals) in 1996.
? Although the sub-sale volume is comparatively lower in this property upturn, the medium sub-sale price rose 26% from $789psf in 2Q06 to $997psf in 3Q06, exceeding the previous peak of $830psf during the heydays of property speculation in
? The comparatively higher medium sub-sale price but lower sub-sale volume is an indication that the sub-sale deals have been largely confined to high-end homes. This is because the current upturn in the property market was led by high-end homes, driven largely by foreign demand (including permanent residents). This is unlike the 1996-peak of the property cycle where the recovery was widespread across the entire property market segments and sub-sale deals were prevalent in the high end and mass market homes.
? Going forward, the level of speculation is expected to rise with upcoming launches such as One Shenton, Marina Bay Residences as well as new launches in the prime districts.
Published 27 Nov 2006. Westcomb Securities Pte Ltd
BMSB, currently an inactive company, intends to be principally engaged in property development
in Johor, Malaysia. The future funding, risks and rewards in this joint venture will be in proportion
to LKH?s and GCB?s shareholding in BMSB.
LKH may be thinking of getting the mega project in Johor with this tie up