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Trading Halt !!! Suspension!!! Delist !!! All these words sound too Familiar. Scary man!!!!!!!
des_khor ( Date: 15-Apr-2010 12:02) Posted:
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China germs everywhere !!!
Avoid this counter......
Another counter will force by SGX to delist soon.
Good luck for those who still believe got hope.
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN UNAUDITED ACCOUNTS AND AUDITED ACCOUNTS * FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RELATED ANNOUNCEMENT
in the sgx website
tchoonw ( Date: 15-Apr-2010 10:59) Posted:
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what is happening to JT today?
Another scandal in action ?? china germ ??
meaning that this counter got no hope?
The Company, through its subsidiary, Anyang Jiutian Fine Chemical Co Ltd, is principally engaged in the manufacture and production of methanol, dimethylformamide and methylamine.
Company just announced it's expecting to report a higher loss for Q4 2009.
Fundamentally, this is not good for the company.
Technically, the chart is showing a down trend for this stock.
My view is that the stock price is either going to stay at the current level or decline further. Not a Buy to me.
anyone has view on this counter?
Fallen from HEAVEN to HELL 9 (S$0.09).
Read the newspaper, the ex-chief of this company in China is sentence to 12 yrs for bribe charges during his terms as chairman.
So you see Dragon stock is not so clean as they are far from here. Can imagine, he is jail last Nov and now then we received the news. So if this business is not clean in accounts, to me is not surprised and you may be argue, this is an ex-chairman, but who knows what is hiding in their mainland side.
My advice, got profits, run, got lost, cut lost. Good Luck.
Disclaimer : this is my own opinion, take care.
Negative profit for 4th quarter ...... Today is Bear.....
big boy short heavy at top,,,,,,,yes,,,,,ah moh remieser tell me is ,,,,,,bottom not yet over,,,,,,,,citibank,,,,,merrrylll,,,,,,,morgan stanley confirm badly burtsy otherwise why need so many capital injaction,,,so akang datang result sure some we dont know,,,,,,heart attact news will akang datang ,,,,,,bottom fish akang datang
SSH buying back 1m @0.245
what's your take?
Jiutian
Earnings visibility has reduced
��
Story: Together with the announcement of a further 24.5% stake
acquisition in a new methanol plant to enhance integration, Jiutian
also provides an operation update, indicating a weak 4Q07 owing to
high methanol cost and slower ramp-up of its new DMF plant.
Besides, our industry observation also suggests weak DMF prices since
late 2007, which rings warning bells on our DMF price assumption.
acquisition in a new methanol plant to enhance integration, Jiutian
also provides an operation update, indicating a weak 4Q07 owing to
high methanol cost and slower ramp-up of its new DMF plant.
Besides, our industry observation also suggests weak DMF prices since
late 2007, which rings warning bells on our DMF price assumption.
��
Point: We have adjusted our earnings estimates down by 40%,
48%, and 23% for 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. This is to
account for potential DMF price weakness, and slower than
expected capacity ramp up at its new plant in 4Q 2007. Our 52%
EPS CAGR estimate in FY07-09 is now based on more conservative
DMF-methanol price spread assumption of RMB2800 per tonne,
which is at the lower end in the past two years.
48%, and 23% for 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. This is to
account for potential DMF price weakness, and slower than
expected capacity ramp up at its new plant in 4Q 2007. Our 52%
EPS CAGR estimate in FY07-09 is now based on more conservative
DMF-methanol price spread assumption of RMB2800 per tonne,
which is at the lower end in the past two years.
��
Relevance: Our TP is down to S$0.42, with reduced earnings
estimates, and using a lower valuation metric of 12x FY08/09 earnings
(vs. 15x previously) to reflect a more challenging operating outlook.
Still, we believe that the potential earnings risk over volatile DMF
prices have already been factored into our new earnings estimates,
and we are maintaining BUY call on the counter. Future earnings
catalyst could come from positive updates on its M&A activities.
estimates, and using a lower valuation metric of 12x FY08/09 earnings
(vs. 15x previously) to reflect a more challenging operating outlook.
Still, we believe that the potential earnings risk over volatile DMF
prices have already been factored into our new earnings estimates,
and we are maintaining BUY call on the counter. Future earnings
catalyst could come from positive updates on its M&A activities.
Adding a further 24.5% stake in Jiulong.
Jiutian?s stake in Jiulong, a JV
between the Group and Anyang to set up a 250k tpa methanol facility,
would be raised from 51.0% to 75.5% after the successful acquisition. This
is a strategic move to provide the Group with a stable and cost effective
supply of methanol, especially in the high methanol price environment.
We estimate the acquisition to boost Jiutian?s FY09 earnings by 10%.
between the Group and Anyang to set up a 250k tpa methanol facility,
would be raised from 51.0% to 75.5% after the successful acquisition. This
is a strategic move to provide the Group with a stable and cost effective
supply of methanol, especially in the high methanol price environment.
We estimate the acquisition to boost Jiutian?s FY09 earnings by 10%.
New DMF plant has ramped up to 80% utilisation.
From 30% in the early
October07, the new 120,000 tpa DMF plant is now running at close to 80%
utilisation on daily output of 300 tonnes. It is expected to fully ramp up
towards the end of 1Q08. This was, in fact, slightly behind our
expectation. Nonetheless, the successful operation of the world?s largest
single DMF production line is a key breakthrough for the group, in light of
their ability to resolve the technical issues during the initial stage.
October07, the new 120,000 tpa DMF plant is now running at close to 80%
utilisation on daily output of 300 tonnes. It is expected to fully ramp up
towards the end of 1Q08. This was, in fact, slightly behind our
expectation. Nonetheless, the successful operation of the world?s largest
single DMF production line is a key breakthrough for the group, in light of
their ability to resolve the technical issues during the initial stage.
Concern over fluctuating DMF prices.
The DMF prices have been trending
down from their record high of RMB6700 a tonne in 4Q06 to below
RMB6000 a tonne at the beginning of 2008. This led to our observation that
DMF pricing by the ?DMF cartel? among top Chinese producers does not
appear to have worked out as expected. Indeed, feedback from industry
players seems to suggest there may be more DMF supply than initially
expected in the domestic market. This is due to an influx of new DMF
capacity and potentially weaker exports from a US economy slowdown.
down from their record high of RMB6700 a tonne in 4Q06 to below
RMB6000 a tonne at the beginning of 2008. This led to our observation that
DMF pricing by the ?DMF cartel? among top Chinese producers does not
appear to have worked out as expected. Indeed, feedback from industry
players seems to suggest there may be more DMF supply than initially
expected in the domestic market. This is due to an influx of new DMF
capacity and potentially weaker exports from a US economy slowdown.
Building in lower DMF-methanol price spread in our earnings model.
In
view of the DMF price weakness, we have built in a more conservative
DMF-methanol spread assumption in our earnings model, at RMB2800 a
tonne against RMB3300-RMB3400 before. This is below the lower end of
the DMF-methanol price spread over the past two years, which was
estimated to be in the range of RMB3000-4000 a tonne.
view of the DMF price weakness, we have built in a more conservative
DMF-methanol spread assumption in our earnings model, at RMB2800 a
tonne against RMB3300-RMB3400 before. This is below the lower end of
the DMF-methanol price spread over the past two years, which was
estimated to be in the range of RMB3000-4000 a tonne.
I advised just 2 months ago to let go of Jiutian. At that time, it was trading at more than double today's price. Those vested at that time who had taken my good advice and sold b4 it got downgraded today should be thankful.
Trade with care.
| 178investors Member |
Posted: 09-Nov-2007 13:56 |
 x 0  x 0 * Alert Admin |
agreed. sell b4 it get downgraded. |
Agree Kenny's point of view. Prices should not move up in the short term. Should drift down 1st. Go in at sub 50 cents...
DBS Vickers:
Facing short term margin pressures but growth story still intact
Story: Jiutian was on a week-long roadshow with us from Oct 29 ? Nov 02,
meeting about 13 fund managers in London and Edinburgh. Separately,
Jiutian?s 3Q07 results were weaker than expected due mainly to soft DMF
prices and a maintenance shut down in the quarter.
Point: Apart from the Group?s growth strategy, investors raised concerns
over price movements of DMF and methanol as well as the impact of rising
methanol cost to margins in the following four quarters. The Group
reinforced that it should be able to sustain current margins when its new
methanol plant is ready by 4Q08. We have revised FY09 EPS estimates up by
9.2% on firmer product ASP and margins. However, margin compression in the
near term appears inevitable as Jiutian needs to get external sources of
methanol. We have thus revised our methanol cost assumption up and cut FY07
and FY08 EPS estimates by 17.5% and 7.2% respectively.
Relevance: The new 120,000 tpa DMF plant entered commercial production in
Oct and should be fully ramped up by end 2007. Thus, we expect 4Q07
revenue and net profit to jump to RMB218m and RMB49m respectively. We
remain upbeat on Jiutian in the longer term and look forward to potential
earnings accretive acquisitions. In our view, potential price weakness
after 3Q07 earnings would present good opportunities to accumulate this
growth stock. We have raised our TP to S$0.76 after rolling over our
valuation to 15x blended FY08/09 PE. Maintain Buy.
agreed. sell b4 it get downgraded.
Sell 1st. Lousy set of result. No catalyst for it to move up currently. Should test 49.5 - 50.5 cents level in the short term..