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Thks all for the advice.
elf: as you said, the price of its stock is determined by market sentiments. But this market sentiments can be irrational, much affected by what people hear and see. So, it may not be the true reflection of the worth of the company, which I thought presents an opportunity for investors.
In the case of GAgr, the current price of S$0.305 is almost 100% below its NAV of US$43cts. Thereoretically, even if the company goes bankrupt today, it can still sell off all its assets and pay off all investors and debtors, with even 100% profits in returns.
Looking at their PAT last FY, they make over $1Bn. The fear of the company going bankrupt overnight is even more remote.
So, the current price of $0.305 is quite a steal, or am I missing something?
I'll certainly go thru' its AR in more details.
Vested.
ccktsp:
because there is a difference between the worth of a company--which is given by its own business--and the price of its stock--which is given by market sentiments.
43c is the fundamental value of the company. It may not necessarily be the price which the market 'values' it at.
It's for this reason that i prefer technical analysis: TA essentially tracks sentiment; so it gives a more accurate picture of what is going on.
Where fundamentals become important is during a period like this: because what will investors pick up in preparation for a recovery?
GAr is a growth stock, btw. Growth stocks have common characteristics, chart patterns and FA patterns: i'd encourage you to take a look at its AR, especially, at its borrowings and debt securities, and total liabilities. You will find your answer there, as to why value investors will not put their money here.
as for talk about profitable companies coming down in bear markets etcetc: the difference is that a profitable company, even if it goes down, will find resilience at a certain point. whereas others (which were falsely ramped up during the bull years), will be relegated to penny counters. that is the fate of speculatives with little/no inherent value.
Don't believe me? Check out this eg of a real counter i posted on my blog last month. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/importance-of-backers.html --update: it is still holding a bottom at abt 50c, despite the STI falling from its 'low' of 3,050 in jan to now.
And this, good folks, is hard evidence. Proof positive and undeniable. I can name you at least four other counters which have shown such resilience.
in other words: Do not follow the talk; follow the walk.
shorted this bugger using cfd today, expect to go below 25c soon...
Today heavy selling cos of the T + 3 day.....as Monday and Tuesday heavy buying.........a lot of ppls need to force sell by today....
Avoid.
elfinchilde ( Date: 02-Oct-2008 13:17) Posted:
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Juzztrade ( Date: 02-Oct-2008 14:02) Posted:
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i've never seen a person who could know the future.
am just giving the supports as per the charts. ppl need to keep in mind that supports/resistances are just that, lines. Up or down depends on price-volume action.
am still bearish on commods myself, tho i do think that 8c for gar is too low. its NAV is US 43c. PAT was 100% return for the last half year.
US investment banks are vested parties. It is a fallacy to think they are unbiased in their 'predictions'. as to what happened to them: overleverage. Lehman brothers had 154% of its equity in mortgage-backed securities as early as Nov 07. Completely separate issue.
i'm simply presenting the facts. people can read for themselves. Go to SGX website for the ARs, SJ provides the charts, bloomberg and Dow Jones provides the news.
In other words, the elf child will not be bothered with such ad hominems as per quoted post. They are baseless, frivolous, show no substance nor rationality. They do nothing except breed negative emotions. For a person to be respected, he must make sense, he must conduct himself in a manner appropriate to a public place.
Otherwise, it shows only two things: immaturity and a lack of class.
des_khor ( Date: 02-Oct-2008 11:35) Posted:
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This counter up and down very fast.....
Look at last Tuesday trade, 32cents down to 30.5cents in just 15mins ......
History will repeat itself......
GAR prob will be in some fund managers portfolio, as it's included in the STI index..
can go either way..but likelihood will be up..
Hai.... just up to you to believe or not ?? just ask yourself whether really got this type of person can know what will happen in future !
Just like US giant investment bank always come out what sort of prediction , in the end what happened to themself ? this is really make my toes laugh !!
Before ppl start panicking....
more precisely, the technical supports for GAr are:
this current zone 28-31c.
Then the 22c zone, which it held for 12 weeks from Aug-Nov 06. This being a strong support.
only then do we reach the 17-18c zone mentioned.
Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research
Support zones. Similar to Keppel Corporation, Golden Agriculture has tested its
200-week moving average and has absorbed the buying in that area. Support levels
for Golden Agriculture are S$0.18 and S$0.08. As of this report, Golden-Agri has
fallen substantially to its current price. Relative to its highs and also in dollar terms
Golden-Agri might be perceived as cheap and attract bargain hunter at key support
levels. The S$0.20 to S$0.18 region is both key-support because it is both
psychological (S$0.20 is a round number) and historical resistance. We advise
readers to pay extra attention around that region.
50 MA
200 MA
Price
Golden-Agri
Previous close S$0.315
Support level 1 S$0.20
to
S$0.18
Support level 2 S$0.08