Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 26-Jun-2008 19:01 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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edit: i don't like to talk without some rational backing, so here: for those who are interested about oil. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE24Dj02.html and http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2008/0502.html. http://www.marktaw.com/culture_and_media/politics/GlobalOil.html --this especially is telling, if you look at global oil production and consumption. especially, look at the figures for china, the favourite bogeyman of blame by the West for 'insatiable oil demand' and rising oil prices. It's laughable. ---------- in brief: if you do the maths: there is a 'shortage' of probably only 1 mil barrels per day, if at all. THis is excluding the major reserves in canada, US, and brazil, which are proven oil fields which the 4 major anglo-american oil companies are sitting on (estimated reserves of more than 170, 365, 800 billion barrels respectively in the canadian, US and brazilian oil fields. Excluding Iraq.). WHy are they not digging for more, even when the reserves are known and proven? because then, oil prices will crash. and what benefit is it to them? Note again: anglo-american. Link back to ICE. research is important, as is knowledge. No such thing as not having inside information. The internet has everything; discrimination allows you to weed out the truth from the lie. those who say money is easy to be made in the markets are, in a word, bluffing. you have to be independent, you have to be able to see behind the picture. You have to dig deep. You have to not trust everything you read. including me. haha. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 18:24 |
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eh? actually, it's TA that shows what they are doing. the principle of TA is that it shows what has been done. and from there, you try to estimate the future direction. Note: try. not abt getting it 100% right, but improving the probability that you are right. longterm, it still hasn't bottomed out yet (which was why i had said first initial buy, and not "whack for entry"). What you're seeing is intraday fluctuations, which scalpers can try to profit off. Will say that such fluctuations are not typical of STE though, which is why i'm also saying the BBs are desperate if they're playing even with this baby. Fyi, it's Morgan Stanley. my guess for the other BB is Citibank. If there's a third: Merril Lynch. They're likely selling at loss, or razor thin profit margins. Why are they doing so? Well, guess who has posted results, and who are posting results soon, with profit warning. haha. Goldman sachs is about the only survivor: and i daresay that's because they're the main players in one spiking commodity: Oil. Goldman Sachs controls the ICE exchange. All that talk about oil demand is rather crap. If you count barrels per day, China barely accounts for 25% of global usage. US demand is actually falling. ie, there's actually enough oil. It's more than 70% speculation. GS are also the analysts calling for a 'super spike' in oil, incidentally, if you follow the news. Isn't the pic clear enough already. Meanwhile, the Bush administration is denying talk of speculation, despite two congressional studies indicting speculation as the main reason. Of course, the transatlantic ICE exchange is in UK, controlled by US. Rotational play amongst the blues can be seen if you track the entire basket. They take turns to go up and come down, and if you count the quantum sum of $$ played, it's about the same. Plus, same patterns of movement. Don't just use TA for one counter, it may blind you to the overall trend. Myriad of indicators, myriad of uses. You need to be able to link everything to see the full picture. Even if you don't use any indicators, BUSD tells everything, since it's the track record of ALL movements, BBs, small fries etc. Queue track tells you the other half of the story. A lot of false queues and churning. You can fake queues but you cannot fake BUSD. It's like fingerprinting. All that remains for techies to do is to deduce the patterns. you must have a clear idea of what to look for, and what to use to look for what. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 17:12 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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wah ha. totally. nice watching a genuine BB vs BB fight. 
for those who've not been watching the counter: last year, gokongwei bought up to 3.45 (you can check the SGX announcements). everyone was wondering why no action from WCY. then the crashes happened, and he swept them up at 2.6-2.75.  jiang hai shi lao de la, indeed.
Now both are buying. and MS as well. whahahaa. those intersted in jumping in need to be careful tho. i don't rule out an ascott possibility. (ie, where they majorly tank the counter, then offer a lower px for the GO, which most investors are relieved to accept.) again, disclaimer and caveat applies to all the above. pls do your own research. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 17:04 |
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shplayer. typical gahmen talk: "it was an honest mistake, no point finding fault. let's close ranks and move on." in this way, things like letting msk go, prisoners escaping, wrong passport also can fly out of country, wrong investments ala suzhou industrial park, investing in UBS, ML, Barclays etcetc, are all excused. Honest mistakes what. no wonder why so many of our kids want to become 'top scholars' and enter civil service. it's a verified ride to the top without ever having to be responsible for your mistakes, while taking credit for all the successes. If you ever make an honest mistake, the worst that happens is that you go into the PMO, or you get directorship of a GLC upon losing your post. High salaries, people jumping at your beck and call, never having to own up to mistakes but can be faceless instead and "let's move on". They don't call it an iron rice bowl for nothing. Who doesn't want this kind of job. haha. Reasonable? Even Buffett refused to buy out the banks when given the chance in a fire sale. We're a country of followers, not thinkers. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 16:47 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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hehe. not STE, actually. it's still too far above valuations for me. STE and capland are punts. in a down market, go back to fundamentals. use charts as support. the following are all suggestions, again, caveat applies to all. Just giving the FA facts. Investors need to make up own minds. based on: -what price is best to enter? -why are you entering the counter? -how long are you prepared to hold -what is the realistic industrial outlook, and the individual stock outlook? -what are the charts saying. ------------ KE. NAV = 1.55. expected NAV = 1.53. Current price (CP) = 1.77. Lowest it hit was 1.65; 1.75 this time around. GK Goh. NAV = 1.18. expected NAV = 1.11 this time around. CP = 96c. directors have been buying. CDLH. NAV = 1.58. Lowest px = 1.68. CP = 1.74. UIC. NAV = 2.55. CP = 3.03. Lowest hit was abt 2.65. Gokongwei+ vehicles own abt 34% in all (probably 35 now). WCY owns 34%. MS is kingmaker with 12%. ie, 79% of UIC is in institutional hands. Bonds/issues is min 2.6-2.7 conversion px. Stamfordland. NAV approx 50c. CP 64.5. damn thing doesn't go down. *(#(@&#(*....... ARA. range play. insti support. -------------- the above should NOT be seen as a buy/sell call. I'm only naming the counters but not the strike prices nor the holding period. That has to be determined by each individual investor. "What price are you willing to pay" and "how long are you willing to hold" being the most important factors that will determine your entry/exit. Some of the above will likely take 2Q or more to turn around. Div yield for them range from 2-5% or more. fyi only. there, i've named the babies. you guys can go do your own homework and determine if they're worthwhile buys. have spent the past days reading ARs. btw, ocbc's NAV is above $6, and they've cleared their CDO obligations. muah haha. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 16:33 |
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raising cash, jasonongsc. they're selling cos they don't have a choice. foreign funds. same BBs as those rotating in noble, the CPO plays etc now. a you-pat-my-back-i-pat-yours scenario. churning of the blues to make final reports look good. quick cash to make subprime losses look better. means the situation is that desperate for them, that they're even selling good counters. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 15:30 |
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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ozone, what a poetic way to put it. hehe. seriously tho, for real investors, it's time to start sitting up. some of the blues are getting close to NAV valuations. about 1.2x price to book ratio or less. graham criteria approaching soon. i'm eyeing some counters for long term holds; but will likely only enter 2. those in CPO plays be careful; run up should be almost done soon. the foreign funds are rotating amongst themselves. Look at who's releasing results in the next few weeks in the US. that's who's playing the local market. important disclaimer: all the above is my individual opinion only, based on technicals. no vested interests in any of the above, nor in the BBs. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 15:00 |
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wah. they're playing this counter again. let's see how low they intend to sink this baby to. hehe. margins must be getting thin for the BBs, that they're even willing to play with a traditionally slow mover like this. at this current px, it's at its lowest for 2 years already. HLJHLJ, yes for longer term. will need nerves though. and a clear strategy. not yet time for first/second buy. caveat applies. |
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| 26-Jun-2008 14:32 |
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okay.,....scalpers may perhaps consider locking out soon; money's been rotating amongst the blues; once the banks are done, longer term downtrend is likely to resume. longer holders (> 3 mths) can start getting ready for first/second buy soon. be more conservative in your estimates of the lows pls. |
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| 24-Jun-2008 16:46 |
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note: caveat emptor applies to all my posts. pls know your own time frame and risk appetite before buying/selling. your time frame will determine what and how you play. the rest is personality. what's meat to one man may be poison to another. | ||||
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| 24-Jun-2008 16:44 |
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on pure BUSD data, and momentum. Intraday techs only: morning session counter showed little movement: 2.95 open to 2.93 close at lunchtime. afternoon: "Padding" at 1423 hr first with buy ups. First tanking begins 1448 hrs, 162 lots thrown down. Period of rest, real "action" begins 1601 hrs @ 2.91. Hit it down to 2.86 in 8 min flat. Then recovery to now, 2.9. False queues both ways appearing and continuing throughout. What is known as 'stacking'. Some retail shortists in action too: they got in late though, abt 2.89-2.9. May get caught by day's close. Just some play on an otherwise zzz day. Rotational; easy for BB to target this counter cos the queue is actually very thin. o/w, longterm, it's still a call for first initial buy. |
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| 24-Jun-2008 16:08 |
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getting played now; watch them tank it. quite obvious which house playing. | ||||
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| 24-Jun-2008 12:35 |
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possible. keep watching. not expecting much movement til later in the week tho. Fed meeting. index down cos of the two banks, kepcorp and sgx. o/w, most counters are actually on sidelines. 1,111. nice number. haha. victorf has been accurate many times, notably, during the end of last year, where he managed to call rightly the volatility then. three times. think he deserves credit for that. no one can call 100% right all the time, after all. :)
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| 23-Jun-2008 17:59 |
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capital gains are not taxable in singapore.  |
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| 23-Jun-2008 17:06 |
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HLJHLJ, i'm a pantang kantang. if i name the counters, i'd probably jinx them. why don't you msg me with your counters instead. Ppl are watching, always keep your aces secret. 
but yea. capitaland if 5.75 holds is a reversal of downtrend. just keep watching BUSD, you're playing a short scalp, remember. and yah. i play the market for pure love of the game. |
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| 23-Jun-2008 14:22 |
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...with the exception of one thing, which analysts will not be able to call: a significant proportion of STE's business comes from military and govt dealings. Not commercial. These are essentially recession-proof. The more global trouble there is, do you think the need for weapons will go up or down? We're a country that spends 4% of its GDP on military needs. How much do you think China, India, Pakistan, the US spends? Fundamental-wise, that's the unknown constant for this counter. |
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| 23-Jun-2008 13:03 |
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wah ha, yes, CWQuah, noble is very good for intraday/short term scalps. 
personally i'm looking for one-three month holding now tho, too lazy to do intraday/less than 5 days.  so that's out of my radar. well, perhaps a bit too early to say, but nice to see STI holding up. 
btw, i should add: currently in my watchlist, there are no banks in there. fundamental-wise, not worth a play in global bad sentiment. technical-wise, value-for-dollar yield doesn't rationally make any of the three good plays. call from friday/week before still holds as via current trends: that some stocks have bottomed out. kira, nope, not a financial analyst. anyone wants to give me a job? muah ha. and yups ipunter/cwquah, today's not a day for shorting. technical terms: OHLC = open, high, low, close. they are what forms your candlesticks. BUSD = buy up sell down data. where you see min by min/sec by sec the exact no: of lots bought/sold at each px and each time. |
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| 22-Jun-2008 16:20 |
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haha, shplayer, yes. singaporegal is back. let's hope for better days ahead.
actually, one more thing: sometimes, it's very difficult to pen down all the thoughts and analysis that goes into a trading decision. there's long term, short term, dif indicators, dif stocks, dif reasons, etcetc. Esp for me: because it's more or less become instinct already. And sometimes, esp if it's an intraday/short term scalp, you'd have reversed decision and followed the min by min trend. So it appears as though you're 'inaccurate' and 'changed your mind'--when really, technically, the only thing you're doing is following the trend. or that you didn't put down all the reasons for it. It's what i mean about the finer points of trading. that's very difficult to show on a forum. believe eldarchen will know what i mean. traded a couple of times 'live' with him before on short scalps. :P it really does change by the minute. |
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| 22-Jun-2008 16:10 |
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smartbear, yups, no offence taken. and yes, i get what you mean by people who appear as gurus then disappear. and haha, yes eldarchen, thanks for the clarification on my gender. virgoan, i'm mainly self taught. there are courses about, i believe; never attended one before though. and no, i don't conduct courses. have been wondering if it'd be useful for people though. not so much my way = best way, but by showing the different methods of trading, and based on personality, to aid people in picking a method best suited for themselves. Customisation, essentially. eg, some are good as day traders but would probably die if they have to hold for months, while others would die of heart attacks if they had to do day trading. lol. I dunno....would such a course be useful/popular? and smartbear: capitaland can be called on candlesticks and BUSD for short technical scalp. the candlestick of 19th was better than the 18th, and if you had watched live BUSD data, the support was at 5.75: buyers shored up this counter at this px. why i had advocated <5.5 back on the capitaland thread though, was because that was a 'safer' level for long term holding (based on MACD and previous px vol charts). since this stock is rather volatile when it is trending intraday. again: need to be very clear on your timeframe and what indicators to use for which specific stock, and which time period: this last dictates what indicators you'll use. You'd not use MACD to entry/exit trade short scalps for capland. wld be inaccurate.
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| 22-Jun-2008 00:36 |
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edit: paiseh. i meant run it at 5.91, not 6.91. 
see, another 'expert' mistake.
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and yuppers, ain't like i'm right all the time. i just try for consistency. There are stocks that i just can't call on, so those are the ones i avoid. excuses are easy, but they don't help one become better. it's about facing up to the music in the end. i try to live up to my mistakes. whatever helps me become a better trader, i'll take it. | First < Newer 641-660 of 2759 Older> Last |