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I happend to chance on this article. AFter reading this, i am still bias over Las vegas sand's gaming rules which is fairer cos 90 something percent profit is pay back to players. I will frequent the LVS @ Marina bay, if they have same gambing rule applied as in LV in states.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

An Eventual Gambling Problem : Insights from Genting

I read the Time Magazine article “Asia Growing Gambling Addiction” [1] with a heavy heart. I find Casino seriously distasteful because it is mere exploitation of the irrational, the superstitious and usually, the uneducated. This might be considered racist, but when it comes to gambling, the average Asian cannot count. Don’t think. And frankly, stupid.

If you have been to Genting, you know what I mean. Genting casinos games have the tables with one of the the worst odds in the world. Just take the “Pontoon” tables for example.

First, Genting does not have Blackjack tables, which is the only beatable game in Casinos through card counting (which is possible if the dealing is not done through a continuous shuffle system). In its place in Genting is called “Pontoon”. This is basically blackjack without the 10s in UK. If you understand blackjack, the more 10s and Aces in the deck, the higher the odds for the player. Pontoon is also the game that the Royal Statistical Society concluded can’t be beaten. If you have access to JSTOR, you might look at an article on this. [2]

The beauty about this is that in Genting, their variant of Pontoon is actually not the unbeatable English Pontoon above. It is worse than that. It is actually a variant of the American game Spanish 21. By calling it Pontoon confuses people, and the Genting dealers will describe the rules as “similar to blackjack.” However, Genting does not even use standard Spanish 21 rules. It only allows doubles on two hands. This is significant for two reasons. To apply a successful basic strategy in Spanish 21 games, one must double and double often, and on many cards. Without card counting (impossible under a continous shuffle system), you can reduce the house edge to about 2.08% which means you will lose less in the long run. But because 99.9 % of the gamblers in Genting (mostly Singaporeans) are still under the impression this is Blackjack or UK Pontoon, they refuse to double save on 8-9-10s, which means they are seriously in trouble – which gives them worse odds than random play.

Already lost? Yes. Most gamblers don't even bother knowing the rules of the game.

According to Edward Thorpe (who I really respect, not only because of his mathematical ability in the casino, but also in the stock market [3]) if you play without any strategy in Pontoon, the house has nearly a 30% edge (if I don’t remember wrongly). This means that if you Randomly play a 100RM a hand (which is the minimum bet sum for Pontoon in Genting) for 100 hands (one hour) you will lose about 3000 RM. And if you are "lucky", you will lose about 1000 RM. If you are unlucky, about 10000 RM.

And these “Pontoon” tables in Genting are so popular that on weekends due to the Singaporean crowd, you can forget about finding a seat, with Singaporeans clamoring to lose their money. So when Genting won the bid for the IR in Sentosa, I was pissed. If Singaporeans clamour to lose 3000 RM per hour in Genting, they will pay the entrance fee and lose more, this time in SGD. Maybe that is why Genting won the bid. They sure can lure those with money to burn. Who knows?

This is seriously an Asian problem, not an Asia one. If you go to casinos in British Columbia, Canada, you will see Chinese, Chinese, Chinese. I hope this is not taken to be racist, but the Chinese seemed more predisposed to getting addicted to gambling. Same thing for The Crown, Australia, which is supposed to be the largest Casino in the Southern Hemisphere. Same thing for Star City, Syndey. One seems to find unusually a large percentage of Chinese. Perhaps the locals prefer betting on sports than on cards, but I won’t know. I see Chinese.

So I really hope that Singapore apart from those psychological and family-centric help efforts – they must ensure that house edges are displayed at every table. Currently, I think only odds and payout might be provided. Actually odds as these people understand will be provided in any case because it is part of the rules of Gambling (Casino pays 3 to 2 on Blackjack is “odds” to the layman). This helps no one except the casinos. Gamblers will ask in any case. I hope I am not seen to be dissing the psychological and family-centric help thing here. Look, all those things are great, but - for cigarettes - you do put the warning labels right? And in this case, because the risk is mathematically quantifiable, that should be provided. Not everyone should end up in the addiction clinic. That might be too late. Information as any economists will tell you, will help a lot in making rational choices - or at least make irrational choices in the least irrational way.

So we should put house edges (Display "House has edge of 15 percent even if you use optimum strategy" - aka "everyone at this table is a rich fool").

But Gamblers tend to blow their fortune tables with a relatively low house edge too ( they think they can beat the house - aka at about the very high 5 percent house edge) because that is when it gets really addictive. When a player gets punished too much, the non-pathological tends to quit. So it is not enough to display the House Edge alone.

Another thing the state can do is to follow British Columbia Casinos where they provide basic strategy tables for games like Blackjack where if you just follow blindly, the house edge will significantly reduce – about 3 percent. Otherwise, all these family-centric and psychological help is useless to aid the "My-Mind-Can-Change-Card-Outcome" or "I-just-have-to-pray-harder" variety. Gamblers are traditionally masochistic. They have traditionally embraced relatively better odds games but make their odds worse by playing lousily. The classic example is Blackjack and more recently, Caribbean stud poker (which already has bad odds in the first place) comes to mind. Where the odds are about even, they tend to choose side bets with terrible odds.

Personally, I think gambling against the odds not wicked or immoral per se. And I won’t really call Gambling a disease per se. After all, it is beneficial when it can be beaten. Won't think that a disease in that case, will you?

But my point here is that the average Singaporeans who is addicted to bad odds in Genting already, is seriously quite screwed when the IR arrives. Someone should really tell them the house edge, the odds, and if he still chooses to play, the optimum strategy. And if he still does not follow that, nothing will save him.

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19-Feb-2010 16:13

Others / CMA

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Will CMA be affected by this news????

# # # #

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Jack Rodman, who has made a career of selling soured property loans from Los Angeles to Tokyo, sees a crash looming in China. He keeps a slide show on his computer of empty office buildings in Beijing, his home since 2002. The tally: 55, with another dozen candidates.

“I took these pictures to try to impress upon these people the massive amount of oversupply,” said Rodman, 63, president of Global Distressed Solutions LLC, which advises private equity and hedge funds on Chinese property and banking. Rodman figures about half of the city’s commercial space is vacant, more than was leased in Germany’s five biggest office markets in 2009.

Beijing’s office vacancy rate of 22.4 percent in the third quarter of last year was the ninth-highest of 103 markets tracked by CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., a real estate broker. Those figures don’t include many buildings about to open, such as the city’s tallest, the 6.6-billion yuan ($966 million) 74- story China World Tower 3.

Empty buildings are sprouting across China as companies with access to some of the $1.4 trillion in new loans last year build skyscrapers. Former Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist Andy Xie and hedge fund manager James Chanos say the country’s property market is in a bubble.

“There’s a monumental property bubble and fixed-asset investment bubble that China has underway right now,” Chanos said in a Jan. 25 Bloomberg Television interview. “And deflating that gently will be difficult at best.”

Third Costliest

Investor concerns have spread beyond real estate. Among 15 major Asian markets, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is valued third-highest relative to estimates for this year’s earnings, after Japan and India, even after falling 8 percent this year.

A glut of factories in China is “wreaking far-reaching damage on the global economy,” stoking trade tensions and raising the risk of bad loans, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in November.

More than 60 percent of investors surveyed by Bloomberg on Jan. 19 said they viewed China as a bubble, and three in 10 said it posed the greatest downside risk. The quarterly poll interviewed a random sample of 873 Bloomberg subscribers and had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Digesting the debt from a popped property bubble may slash bank lending and drag growth lower for years in an economy that Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage, says will provide more than a third of world growth in 2010.

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19-Feb-2010 16:06

Ying Li Intl / Ying Li

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Temasek sold CitiGroup and bought into China Construction Bank [CCB] in 2009.

Q U O T E:

Bank Shares

Hong Kong-listed Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, has dropped 13 percent this year. China Construction Bank Corp., the second-largest, has fallen 11 percent. Both are based in Beijing. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index has declined 7.3 percent over the same period.
Hang Seng Index has declined 7.3 percent over the same period.

U N Q U O T E

FearValueGreed ( Date: 14-Feb-2010 10:08) Posted:

Gong Xi Fa Cai for those who can buy at ten cents.

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Jack Rodman, who has made a career of selling soured property loans from Los Angeles to Tokyo, sees a crash looming in China. He keeps a slide show on his computer of empty office buildings in Beijing, his home since 2002. The tally: 55, with another dozen candidates.

“I took these pictures to try to impress upon these people the massive amount of oversupply,” said Rodman, 63, president of Global Distressed Solutions LLC, which advises private equity and hedge funds on Chinese property and banking. Rodman figures about half of the city’s commercial space is vacant, more than was leased in Germany’s five biggest office markets in 2009.

Beijing’s office vacancy rate of 22.4 percent in the third quarter of last year was the ninth-highest of 103 markets tracked by CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., a real estate broker. Those figures don’t include many buildings about to open, such as the city’s tallest, the 6.6-billion yuan ($966 million) 74- story China World Tower 3.

Empty buildings are sprouting across China as companies with access to some of the $1.4 trillion in new loans last year build skyscrapers. Former Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist Andy Xie and hedge fund manager James Chanos say the country’s property market is in a bubble.

“There’s a monumental property bubble and fixed-asset investment bubble that China has underway right now,” Chanos said in a Jan. 25 Bloomberg Television interview. “And deflating that gently will be difficult at best.”

Third Costliest

Investor concerns have spread beyond real estate. Among 15 major Asian markets, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is valued third-highest relative to estimates for this year’s earnings, after Japan and India, even after falling 8 percent this year.

A glut of factories in China is “wreaking far-reaching damage on the global economy,” stoking trade tensions and raising the risk of bad loans, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in November.

More than 60 percent of investors surveyed by Bloomberg on Jan. 19 said they viewed China as a bubble, and three in 10 said it posed the greatest downside risk. The quarterly poll interviewed a random sample of 873 Bloomberg subscribers and had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Digesting the debt from a popped property bubble may slash bank lending and drag growth lower for years in an economy that Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage, says will provide more than a third of world growth in 2010.

Japanese Comparison

The risks are so great that a decade of little or no growth, as Japan experienced in the 1990s, can’t be dismissed, said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor in the School of Economics and Management at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, ranked China’s top university by the Times newspaper in London.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average surged sixfold and commercial property prices in metropolitan Tokyo rose fourfold before the bubble burst in 1990. The Nikkei trades at about a quarter of its December 1989 peak.

“You have state-owned enterprises using borrowed funds from the stimulus bidding up the price of land -- not even desirable plots of land -- in Beijing to astronomical rates,” Chovanec said. “At the same time you have 30 percent-plus vacancy rates and slumping rents in commercial property so it’s just a case of when you recognize the losses -- or don’t.”

China’s lending surged to 1.39 trillion yuan in January, more than in the previous three months combined. Property prices in 70 cities climbed 9.5 percent from a year earlier, the most in 21 months.

Reasonable Control

Policy makers are starting to rein in the loans that helped fuel the property boom. Banks should “strictly” follow real estate lending policies, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said on its Web site on Jan. 27. It called for banks to “reasonably control” lending growth.

The People’s Bank of China today ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to help cool expansion in lending. The requirement will increase 50 basis points effective Feb. 25, the central bank said on its Web site. The current level is 16 percent for big banks and 14 percent for smaller ones.

“The liquidity bubble last year went to the property market,” said Taizo Ishida, San Francisco-based lead manager for the $212-million Matthews Asia Pacific Fund, in a phone interview. “I was in Shanghai and Shenzhen three weeks ago and the prices were just eye-popping, just really amazing. Generally I’m not buying Chinese stocks.”

‘Dubai Times 1,000’

Chanos, founder of New York-based Kynikos Associates Ltd., predicted that China could be “Dubai times 100 or 1,000.” Real estate prices there have fallen almost 50 percent from their 2008 peak as the emirate struggles under at least $80 billion of debt. The economy may shrink 0.4 percent this year, Shuaa Capital, the biggest U.A.E. investment bank, says.

The commercial property space under construction in China at the end of November was the equivalent of 6,800 Burj Khalifas -- the 160-story Dubai skyscraper that’s the world’s tallest.

It’s difficult to determine how exposed Chinese banks are to real estate debt because loans booked to some state-owned companies as industrial lending may have been used to invest in property, say Xie and Charlene Chu, who analyzes Chinese banks for London-based Fitch Ratings Ltd. in Beijing.

A drop in the property market may be accompanied by a surge in nonperforming loans. The Shanghai office of the banking regulatory commission said on Feb. 4 that a 10 percent fall in property values would triple the ratio of delinquent mortgages there.

Bank Shares

Hong Kong-listed Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, has dropped 13 percent this year. China Construction Bank Corp., the second-largest, has fallen 11 percent. Both are based in Beijing. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index has declined 7.3 percent over the same period.

Fund manager Joseph Zeng says he has a contrarian view on China’s banks, on the grounds that rising interest rates this year will benefit their net interest margins.

“For us, non-performing loans are not expected to be a big issue until 2013, the peak of the current economic cycle,” said Zeng, head of Greenwoods Asset Management Ltd.’s Hong Kong office, in a phone interview. He declined to say what he is buying. Greenwoods has more than $500 million under management.

China has firepower to deal with a crisis. The nation has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, at $2.4 trillion, and government debt of only about 20 percent of GDP last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. That compares with 85 percent in India and the U.S. and 219 percent in Japan.

Own-Use Excluded

CB Richard Ellis doesn’t count empty office buildings bought by banks and insurance companies when calculating vacancy rates, since some of the space is for the owners’ use. The Los Angeles-based company said in a report that vacancy rates are starting to fall and rents to rise for the best office buildings as China’s fast economic growth buoys demand.

Gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year before, a two-year-high, after the government introduced a $586-billion stimulus package.

“In many cases when you look at these buildings and say, that’s never going to be fully occupied, somehow 12 to 18 months later the building is full,” said Chris Brooke, CB Richard Ellis’s Beijing-based president and chief executive officer for Asia.

Overcapacity may be looming in manufacturing as well. China’s investments in new factories and properties surged 67 percent last year to 15.2 trillion yuan, more than Russia’s gross domestic product. Excess steel capacity may have reached about 132 million tons in 2009, more than the 87.5 million tons from Japan, the world’s second-biggest producer. The Beijing- based EU Chamber of Commerce report said a “looming deluge” of extra cement capacity is being built.

Balance Sheet Deterioration

While neither Xie nor Chu see nonperforming loan ratios reaching the level of a decade ago, when they made up 40 percent of total lending, they say banks will see deterioration in their balance sheets.

“A lot of people will lose a lot of money, but the banks will probably not go down like in the 1990s,” Xie said in a phone interview. “Of course there will be a lot of bad debts. There will be a lot of mortgages gone bad I think.”

Rodman displays the slide show to private equity and hedge fund clients brought in by banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. at his office in eastern Beijing.

“China is the only place in the world that despite having more empty buildings than the rest of the world has yet to reflect those valuations on their balance sheet,” Rodman said.

Empty Buildings

Gazing south from the building that houses the Beijing headquarters of Goldman Sachs, UBS AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the first structures in the field of vision is a 17-story office tower at No. 9 Financial Street. Empty.

Farther along are the two 18-story towers of the Bank of Communications Co. complex. Dirt is gathering at the doors and the lobby is now a bicycle parking lot. A spokeswoman for the Shanghai-based lender didn’t return phone calls and e-mails.

The supply of office buildings will continue to grow. Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., a Chicago-based real-estate company, estimates that about 1.2 million square meters (12.9 million square feet) of office space in Beijing will come on line this year, adding to the total stock of 9.2 million square meters.

The city government is driving growth regardless of the market. Financial Street Holding Co., whose biggest shareholder is the local municipal district, plans to build 1 million square meters of additional office space starting this year, and is talking to potential clients such as JPMorgan, said Lydia Wang, the company’s head of investor relations.

Doubling the CBD

Across town, the district government is seeking to double the size of the city’s Central Business District, which already has the highest vacancy rate ever recorded in Beijing. It was 35 percent at the end of 2009, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

For its part, Beijing-based Financial Street Holdings has “100 percent” of its properties, which include the Ritz Carlton hotel and a shopping mall, rented out, Wang said. The empty buildings along Finance Street don’t belong to the company, which is 26.6 percent owned by the district government.

Zhong Rongming, deputy general manager of the Beijing- based China World Trade Center Co., which built China World Tower 3, said the company is “optimistic about 2010 prospects” given China’s accelerating economic growth. He said the new tower will include tenants such as Mitsui & Co. and the Asian Development Bank.

One new addition to Finance Street may give real estate boosters cause for concern. No. 8 Finance Street will be the headquarters for China Huarong Asset Management Corp.

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19-Feb-2010 15:49

CapitaLand / Capitaland

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short and Short and SHORT in a down trend....

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19-Feb-2010 15:11

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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This is so that Singaporean will spend S$100 on 4D or TOTO first.

When Singaporean wins 4D or TOTO, there is more money to go to the Casino.

Only Winner of 4D or TOTO will go to the Casino.

ianong ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 13:27) Posted:

So unfair indeed. Shld allow sporean who want to look see look see (just enjoying the feeling) to enter free. Only those who want to play then pay $100. Gov keep saying sporean got more privilege over foreigners, not in this case.

derekchong ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 11:49) Posted:

foreign workers can go in and look see look see

singaporean $100. where got logic.

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19-Feb-2010 13:59

RafflesEdu / Raffles Edu

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372,000 shares are too petty for Kim Eng Securities!?

Expect to see at least 3,720,000 or better still 37,200,000!

dragonhart ( Date: 19-Feb-2010 10:35) Posted:

check out announcement yesterday...3 substantial shareholders made large open market purchases from $0.375 - 0.393..Kim Eng securities is one of them(increased their holdings fr 72,000 to 372,000 shares. it has been a longtime since they made any moves...hope it is good news for existing shareholders.

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19-Feb-2010 13:50

Others / JK funds performance

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WHY do you buy CHEMOIL when there is already a General Offer at low price?

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19-Feb-2010 13:39

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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WHO KNOWS IF S/POOL INdirectly owns some of those ONLINE CASINOS ????

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19-Feb-2010 13:32

UniFiber System / UniFiber

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It is GOOD LUCK to be able to buy at S$0.040.

Only those who are Really Really Short of CASH sell at S$0.040.

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19-Feb-2010 12:53

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

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That means, there will be bonuses for all employees in 2010, UNlike in 2009 when many did not have bonus.

Disposable Income will rise and spending will increase.

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19-Feb-2010 12:36

Straits Times Index / *BULL in MIND* PERFECT PROPHESY

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niuyear's research is Xtremely interesting.

Singapore is like a Contrarian????

Other countries EXPORT misTALENT & misLABOUR

(WHO believe other countries are EXPORTING their BEST TALENT & BEST LABOUR????)

SO SINGAPORE IMPORT misTALENT & misLABOUR

Other countreis IMPORT FUNDS & CASH

SO SINGAPORE EXPORT FUNDS & CASH

What is the term to describe this type of character????

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19-Feb-2010 12:24

Healthway Med / healthway, healthy?

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Congratulations to DRsubaru

Going forward, soon you will be the Next Billionaire in Singapore Ranking.

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19-Feb-2010 12:08

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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Making S$3Million+ per day is good profit.

It was announced about one month ago that Genting SP will open a smaller casino resort at JB Iskandar.

However, no date was mentioned.

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18-Feb-2010 14:48

Healthway Med / healthway, healthy?

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WORMING SCHEME is INCHING PROGRESSIVELY * * * * * * * *

WORMING SCHEME started INCHING since S$0.140 before the Chinese New Year.

Thursday: 18 February 2010 13:59.01 S$0.150 BOUGHT from SELLER 6,156,000

14:17.39 S$0.155 BOUGHT from SELLER 1,000,000

Analysts Target Price S$0.210 ~ S$0.280

DON'T BELIEVE the Analysts WHO are usually CONSERVATIVE.

Long Term Target Price is Probably S$0.680

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18-Feb-2010 14:41

Straits Times Index / *BULL in MIND* PERFECT PROPHESY

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Check OUT Healthway Medical

WORMING SCHEME is INCHING

WORMING SCHEME started INCHING since S$0.140 before the Chinese New Year.

Thursday: 18 February 2010 13:59.01 S$0.150 BOUGHT from SELLER 6,156,000

14:17.39 S$0.155 BOUGHT from SELLER 1,000,000

Analysts Target Price S$0.210 ~ S$0.280

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18-Feb-2010 14:26

ChinaMilk / China Milk

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BEWARE of TAINTED Management and POOR Governance

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18-Feb-2010 14:19

EcoWise / Its Wise to be in Ecowise...

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The PRICE TANGed by 50% ? ? ? ?

What happened to ECOWISE? ? ? ?

UNecoUNwise ? ? ? ?

penguinn ( Date: 30-Oct-2009 00:11) Posted:

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18-Feb-2010 14:07

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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Those SHORT of CASH need to CONVERT to CASH at any PRICE....

Different story for those who have CASH

dizzifying ( Date: 18-Feb-2010 11:42) Posted:

0.99 still short?

pharoah88 ( Date: 18-Feb-2010 11:36) Posted:

JUST SHORT it down as you wish

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18-Feb-2010 13:56

Genting Sing / GenSp starts to move up again

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For Complete FOCUS and CONVENIENCE, check out at

"BULL in MIND" PERFECT PROPHESY

Hulumas ( Date: 18-Feb-2010 13:13) Posted:

Please refer to UNIFIBER topic, I think it is related and answer part of your question here hopefully!!!

Andrew ( Date: 18-Feb-2010 13:05) Posted:

When they officially open their four hotels. It is trading at 126cts. By the time the Casino is opened it is 104 cts.

Now it is trading at 98.5 cts.......what happened ? The investor don't like the IR ?? It is afterall a 6,600,000,000 SGD piece of asset.

Not vested because I have seen this stock trading at 30+cts for a long long time.......heeee

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