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Key Wall St index's fall suggests worst is over

Low oil price is always good....

 

OIL  1.43  -2.27%  $61.50

 

Haha...it is termed as a " Bar* - clad cycle" !

* A bar is defined as a device that makes a mountain out of a mole-hill. Cheers!

 

A bug bull market is highly unlikely, as the economy is artificially propped up with massive bailouts.

A free market boom is not the result of bailouts...

Furtehrmore, the meltdown was symptomatic of a systemic breakdown of the free market economy.

Thus, don't expect this to be the usual 'business cycle upturn'...

 

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/02/markets/markets_weekahead/index.htm?postversion=2009070415 

Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, rallied 40% between the March 9 lows and the June 11 highs. But in the weeks since, stocks have drifted lower, with the S&P 500 sliding 5% as bets that the economy is close to stabilizing turned to worries that the market jumped the gun.

"We are moving out of the paralysis phase that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers and back into a recession phase," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. "I think people have confused that transition with the beginning of a recovery."

Friday's much worse than expected June jobs report sent investors heading for the exits in a thinly traded session ahead of the Independence Day holiday weekend.

The next few weeks on Wall St are unlikely to give investors any reason to jump back into stocks. But enough optimism remains in place and enough government money will flood the system - that a bigger selloff can probably be avoided, said Gary Webb, CEO at Webb Financial Grp.

 S&P 500 lost 11.7% in the first quarter and gained it back and then some in the second quarter.

smartrader      ( Date: 01-Jul-2009 23:11) Posted: Published July 1, 2009 Key Wall St index's fall suggests worst is over After hitting record highs, VIX is at its lowest since before Lehman's collapse Email this article Print article Feedback The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX, provides investors with portfolio insurance against fluctuations in the S&P 500 index. It soared to historic highs in the weeks after Lehman's rapid failure pushed financial markets to the brink and left an already crippled economy in tatters. But amid numerous signs the economy is on the edge of a recovery, coupled with the best quarter for stocks in more than 10 years, the VIX has begun to look like its old self again. 'Investors see a lesser need for protection going forward; it looks like they don't see a revisit to the March lows,' said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut. The VIX, which is calculated from Standard & Poor's index options, tracks the market's expectations of volatility over the next 30 days. It often moves inversely to the S&P benchmark and goes up as options premiums are raised. The S&P 500 hit a more than 12-year low in early March, down more than 57 per cent from the record high it set in October 2007, after the bursting of the housing bubble spiralled into a credit crisis and then into a global recession. The VIX hit an intraday record high of 89.53 in late October, but on Monday it closed at 25.35, its lowest level since Sept 11, 2008, before the weekend when Lehman collapsed. 'The path forward appears a less treacherous one according to what the VIX is telling us,' Mr Wilkinson added. Stabilisation of key economic indicators such as payrolls, home prices, bond yields and consumer confidence, as well as the Obama administration's plan to reactivate the recession-hit economy, have boosted bets on the economy's outlook. Investors are looking forward to this week's key housing and job market data on expectations that it will show further signs that the worst is over. 'I think (the VIX) is down primarily because the expectation is the economy is going to recover and we've started a bull market,' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors in Albany, New York. The S&P 500 has risen up to 40 per cent from its March lows, and is on path to close its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 1998. But even as some market players expect a correction in the near term, the reading of the VIX suggests that that correction may not happen. 'The bears are beginning to throw in the towel on expecting a substantial stock market decline, so investors are beginning to sell implied volatility,' Mr Wilkinson said. 'Investors do not perceive there's going to be another big crash.' But although the VIX has returned to levels similar to those seen before financial markets imploded, analysts said that does not mean the economy has recovered from the hit it took last year. 'We've gone through such a change in the economy that has required such drastic steps from both the Federal Reserve and the government that it is going to create a very different landscape going forward,' said Mr Wilkinson. 'We can't relate (today's) VIX measures to were we've come from.' - Reuters     (NEW YORK) Growing confidence that the US economy is putting the worst recession in decades behind it has pushed the index known as Wall Street's fear gauge to its lowest level since just before Lehman Brothers collapsed last September.

 

You shall see some major singapore shares to fall, as the ripple effects kicks in of the FC. China Stocks on the other hand will be the shining star.

 

Opportunity gains, you meant? 

Bearish ...yes. Trauma...No! Heh, you'll still be able to gain from the Market in a bearish environment. Only difference is, it is more difficult than in a Bull Market. Cheers!

Hulumas      ( Date: 02-Jul-2009 11:26) Posted: Are you still in bearish trauma? Get rid of it faster! orelse, you 'll miss the train and subjected to invaluable opportunity losses! ten4one      ( Date: 02-Jul-2009 09:04) Posted: Nothing is over until it is over........ Look at the jobs number and Cash Flows. It is still far from over..as yet! Cheers!

 

For stocks you are going long, it is good to accumulate if it reaches your target price. Cos' you do not bother about daily price fluctuation and are gunning for 200-500% gain.

For short term trading, it is good to ride the wave to take profits. Do both well, you will definitely be better off than leaving too much cash in banks - say 1-2yrs time.

 

 

 

 

Are you still in bearish trauma? Get rid of it faster! orelse, you 'll miss the train and subjected to invaluable opportunity losses!

ten4one      ( Date: 02-Jul-2009 09:04) Posted: Nothing is over until it is over........ Look at the jobs number and Cash Flows. It is still far from over..as yet! Cheers!

 

Nothing is over until it is over........ Look at the jobs number and Cash Flows. It is still far from over..as yet! Cheers!

 

This is not a new story.... already in market since few months back.

 

Published July 1, 2009

Key Wall St index's fall suggests worst is over After hitting record highs, VIX is at its lowest since before Lehman's collapse Email this article Print article Feedback The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX, provides investors with portfolio insurance against fluctuations in the S&P 500 index. It soared to historic highs in the weeks after Lehman's rapid failure pushed financial markets to the brink and left an already crippled economy in tatters. But amid numerous signs the economy is on the edge of a recovery, coupled with the best quarter for stocks in more than 10 years, the VIX has begun to look like its old self again. 'Investors see a lesser need for protection going forward; it looks like they don't see a revisit to the March lows,' said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut. The VIX, which is calculated from Standard & Poor's index options, tracks the market's expectations of volatility over the next 30 days. It often moves inversely to the S&P benchmark and goes up as options premiums are raised. The S&P 500 hit a more than 12-year low in early March, down more than 57 per cent from the record high it set in October 2007, after the bursting of the housing bubble spiralled into a credit crisis and then into a global recession. The VIX hit an intraday record high of 89.53 in late October, but on Monday it closed at 25.35, its lowest level since Sept 11, 2008, before the weekend when Lehman collapsed. 'The path forward appears a less treacherous one according to what the VIX is telling us,' Mr Wilkinson added. Stabilisation of key economic indicators such as payrolls, home prices, bond yields and consumer confidence, as well as the Obama administration's plan to reactivate the recession-hit economy, have boosted bets on the economy's outlook. Investors are looking forward to this week's key housing and job market data on expectations that it will show further signs that the worst is over. 'I think (the VIX) is down primarily because the expectation is the economy is going to recover and we've started a bull market,' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors in Albany, New York. The S&P 500 has risen up to 40 per cent from its March lows, and is on path to close its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 1998. But even as some market players expect a correction in the near term, the reading of the VIX suggests that that correction may not happen. 'The bears are beginning to throw in the towel on expecting a substantial stock market decline, so investors are beginning to sell implied volatility,' Mr Wilkinson said. 'Investors do not perceive there's going to be another big crash.' But although the VIX has returned to levels similar to those seen before financial markets imploded, analysts said that does not mean the economy has recovered from the hit it took last year. 'We've gone through such a change in the economy that has required such drastic steps from both the Federal Reserve and the government that it is going to create a very different landscape going forward,' said Mr Wilkinson. 'We can't relate (today's) VIX measures to were we've come from.' - Reuters     (NEW YORK) Growing confidence that the US economy is putting the worst recession in decades behind it has pushed the index known as Wall Street's fear gauge to its lowest level since just before Lehman Brothers collapsed last September.