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Bottom already a history

shuishui
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15-Apr-2009 23:23

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my vote is yes............as long china n jewish don't pull the plug on U.S treasury bonds.

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teeth53
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15-Apr-2009 23:18

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http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/25/news/economy/depression_comparisons/index.htm

Great Recession or a new Depression?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Is this the worst economy since the Great Depression? And what are the chances of the economy falling into another depression?

The answer to the first question is fairly clear. In most ways that matter to economists and average Americans, this is the worst economic crisis since the Depression.

The answer to the second question is not as clear. While the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declares the beginning and end of recessions, nobody does that for depressions.

Still, the general consensus of economists is that another depression is not likely. But the risks are greater than they were only a few months ago.

Why this recession is so bad...........? Why this won't be another depression........? for more info pls click

teeth53 ( Date: 15-Apr-2009 23:11) Posted:

GM bonds: Big loss for small investors

3:38am: Nearly $6 billion of GM's unsecured debt is held by retail investors like Harley VanDeloo. He's one of many who could lose out if GM goes bankrupt. More and this....teeth53 tot: Many will suffer holding such stocks.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key index of prices paid by consumers fell in March and registered its first annual decline in more than 50 years, the government said Wednesday, as prices for energy and food slumped in the weak economy.

Deflation, a widespread drop in prices, is a sign of economic weakness. Lowering prices is one way businesses can cope with falling demand. But if companies can't earn a profit selling their products at lower prices, they could be forced to cut production or lay off workers, which speeds up the pace of economic deterioration.

Story of 2 downturns

See how the Great Depression and the 'Great Recession' measure up against one another.

The bottom is still at the bottom and got many extremly dark pit where everybody cannot see as it is extremely so dark, while Obama has given himself five years to set thing on the path to recovery. Many do not have that kind of patience to wait, so many will start calling the beginning of the end of this recession, or bottom is history liao.

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teeth53
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15-Apr-2009 23:11

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Story of 2 downturns

See how the Great Depression and the 'Great Recession' measure up against one another.

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lookcc
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15-Apr-2009 21:02

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only mr. market can make such a declaration, nobody else can.

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jonahach
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15-Apr-2009 20:56

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Can we declare that bottom already dead?

richtan ( Date: 12-Apr-2009 01:53) Posted:

But the contrarian thinks the opposite, tats why they are called contrarian, so if more & more pple declare tat the bull is dead, it could be cunning & sly BIG BAD BEAR, probably it is still alive & kicking, pretending to be dead to maul those gullible who are caught off-guard.

So better to exit a bit earlier b4 the party catch fire & everyone dashing for the exit & get yourself peng kang beyond recognition (reminds me of the sad Thailand incident).

So u are forewarned!!!

mario1 ( Date: 11-Apr-2009 02:02) Posted:

the step 4 mentioned in the other article is very intersting.. that when pple declare the bear is dead, thats' when the rally ends.. and when pple declare it's the end of the world, we r on the road to recovery.. Now I guess more and more pple r declaring that the bear is dead.. hmm..

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richtan
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12-Apr-2009 01:53

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So better to exit a bit earlier b4 the party catch fire & everyone dashing for the exit & get yourself peng kang beyond recognition (reminds me of the sad Thailand incident).

So u are forewarned!!!

mario1 ( Date: 11-Apr-2009 02:02) Posted:

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mario1
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11-Apr-2009 02:02

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cheongwee
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11-Apr-2009 01:34

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Wow..this one is the most pessimistic...call to buy rifle and learn how to use it..and buy gold..he see upheaval...i dont agree...you DOYDD

MONEYANDMARKETS»

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET

[«] Money and Markets 2009 Archive

View This Issue On Our Website [»]

Eight Not-So-Pretty Observations
from Big Sky Country
by Tony Sagami

Dear Cheongwee,

My kids and I love it here in Montana ... the rugged Rockies, the majestic wildlife, the crisp air. And if I ever meet Al Gore, I am going to thank him for inventing the Internet. After all without the Internet, I wouldn't be able to write my Money and Markets columns from my precious home.

The days of cowboys, Indians, and buffaloes are long gone from Montana. Nevertheless, Montana is still a little behind the times — in a charming, folksy way. And even though the Big Sky state is thousands of miles from Manhattan, what I see happening here is useful in understanding what is happening to our country's economy.

And none of these observations are pretty ...

Big Sky Observation #1: Driving from my house to my daughter's ballet studio, I pass two homes that have Bobcats sitting in their front yards with For Sale signs hanging from them. Bobcats are those mini-excavators used for landscaping and medium-sized excavation jobs. It wasn't very long ago when contractors with Bobcats were busy night and day. Now, scores of these expensive brutes are sitting idle ... collecting dust.

I learn a lot by listening to the folks in my town's little café.

Big Sky Observation #2: My town has a little café where all the "good old boys" hang out. Most of them are farmers, carpenters, electricians, and all sorts of construction workers. Last Monday morning, a gravel truck driver, a painter, and a drywall finisher were there commiserating about getting laid off.

Big Sky Observation #3: A few nights ago, I was talking to the owner of a small pizza restaurant. And he told me that he's had a steady stream of intelligent, college-educated men coming in looking for work. "These guys," he said, "are willing to do anything from washing dishes to delivering pizza."

Big Sky Observation #4: One of my closest friends, a highly-skilled home remodeler, is leaving his family in Montana for a couple months while he goes to Maryland. Why? He says there isn't a lick of construction work to be found here.

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Big Sky Observation #5: The unemployment rate in my county rose to 11.3 percent in February, a 15-year high. That's awful. But it was even worse in the two neighboring counties where unemployment shot up to 15.6 percent and 17.7 percent.

Big Sky Observation #6: The Realtor whom I've used to buy and sell millions of dollars of property said his business is so pathetic that he's renting out his Kubota backhoe to help make ends meet.

Big Sky Observation #7: Semitool (SMTL) is based in northwest Montana and makes semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Business is so slow that Semitool has been forced to cut production and costs to stay alive. Yesterday, one of my friends who works there told me that Semitool gave 60-day Reduction in Force notices to its employees last week.

Our local sportsmen store can't keep ammo in stock. This tells me that gun owners are preparing for the worst.

Big Sky Observation #8: Hunting is big business in Montana. But even though hunting season was over months ago, our local sportsmen store is consistently out of ammunition. And when they do get a new delivery, it only takes a few days before they're out again. This tells me that gun owners are preparing for the worst.

Now I know what you're thinking: What the heck does Montana have to do with what's happening on Wall Street or Main Street for that matter?

A whole lot actually ...

That's because you could find this same discouraging news in almost any part of the country!

The real estate market stinks,
The construction industry is crippled,
Unemployment is rising,
And businesses are hunkering down for tough times.

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And I am absolutely convinced it's going to get worse — a whole lot worse — before it gets better. That of course has a lot of important investment implications ... especially if you agree with me.

What You Should
Consider Doing ...

Running for cover! The most important strategy to follow for 2009 is to increase your allocation of good old safe cash. How much depends on your situation. But I think anything less than 50 percent in cash is a mistake.

Use every market rally, such as the Dow going above 7,500, as an opportunity to sell (even at a loss) and increase your cash.

Investing with a safety net. If you do decide to invest in the stock market, consider one of the single premium life or annuity products that offers returns based on a percentage of a stock market index's growth while protecting you from runaway losses.

Gold is no longer just an inflation hedge. It is also the ultimate safe haven for investors.

Buying some haywire insurance. I'm talking about gold. In the old days, gold was primarily an inflation hedge. But its role has changed. It's now become a haven for investors seeking the ultimate in safety. I believe that gold should do extremely well if (a) the stock market gets clobbered, (b) the value of the U.S. dollar collapses, (c) the rampant government spending turns into rampant inflation, or (d) the global recession turns into a global depression.

Frankly, I am convinced that (a), (b), and (c) are almost sure things. And I am very worried that (d) is a real possibility.

Best wishes,

Tony

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cheongwee
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11-Apr-2009 01:21

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Here is something to share...he suggest sell to strength...but i think we should capitalize on this rally to make some buck, and just to be alert to run on any reversal...

MONEYANDMARKETS»

Monday, March 30, 2009

YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET

[«] Money and Markets 2009 Archive

View This Issue On Our Website [»]

Alarming News: Bank Losses Spreading!
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Dear Cheongwee,

For the first time in history, U.S. banks have suffered large, ominous losses in a giant sector that, until now, they thought was solid: bets on interest rates.

In a moment, I'll explain what this means for your savings and your stocks.

But first, here's the alarming news: According to the fourth quarter report just released this past Friday by the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), commercial banks lost a record $3.4 billion in interest rate derivatives, or more than seven times their worst previous quarterly loss in that category.¹

And here's why the losses are so ominous:

Until the third quarter of last year, the banks' losses in derivatives were almost entirely confined to credit default swaps — bets on failing companies and sinking investments.

Next major risk area: Interest Rate Derivatives

But credit default swaps are actually a much smaller sector, representing only 7.8 percent of the total derivatives market.

Now, with these new losses in interest rate derivatives, the disease has begun to infect a sector that encompasses a whopping 82 percent of the derivatives market.²

Thus, considering their far larger volume, any threat to interest rate derivatives could be far more serious than anything we've seen so far.

Meanwhile, time bombs continue to explode in the credit default swaps as well, delivering another massive loss of nearly $9 billion in the fourth quarter.

And remember: These represent the aggregate total for the entire banking industry, after netting out the results of banks with profitable trading.

Why This Crisis Could Be Nearly as
Bad as the Banking Crisis of 1929-31

Yes, I know the standard argument: In 1929, bank regulation and depositor protection was primarily run by state governments. Now, with the FDIC, the OCC, and more direct Federal Reserve intervention, it's far more centralized.

But offsetting that strength are serious weaknesses in the banking system that did not exist in the 1930s:

• In 1929, there were fewer giant banks. They controlled a smaller share of the total market. And they were generally stronger than the thousands of community banks around the country. Today, by contrast, the nation's high-roller megabanks dominate the market.

• In 1929, derivatives were virtually nonexistent. Not today! U.S. banks alone control $200.4 trillion; and it's precisely in this dangerous sector that the megabanks dominate the most.

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According to the OCC's Q4 2008 report, America's top five commercial banks control 96 percent of the industry's total derivatives, while the top 25 control 99.78 percent. In other words, for every $100 dollar of derivatives, the big banks have $99.78 ... while the rest of the nation's 7,000-plus banking institutions control a meager 22 cents!³

This is a massively dangerous concentration of risk.

The large banks are exposed to the danger that buyers will vanish, markets will suddenly become illiquid, and they'll be unable to unload their positions without accepting wipe-out losses. Has this ever happened? Unfortunately, yes. In fact, it's the primary reason they lost a record $3.4 billion in the last three months of 2008.

The large banks are exposed to the danger that, with exploding federal deficits and new fears of inflation, interest rates will suddenly surge, delivering a whole new round of even bigger losses in the months ahead.

Worst of all, the five biggest banks are exposed to breathtaking default risk — the danger that their trading partners could fail to make good on their gambling debts, transforming even the best winning trades into some of the worst losers.

Here's our chart on these risks, updated to reflect the new data just released on Friday:

Major U.S. Banks Overexposed to Default Risk

Specifically, at year-end 2008,

Bank of America's total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital;
Citibank's was 278 percent;
JPMorgan Chase's, 382 percent; and
HSBC America's, 550 percent.⁴

What's excessive? The banking regulators won't tell us. But as a rule, exposure of more than 25 percent in any one major risk area is too much, in my view.

And if you think these four banks are overexposed, wait till you see the super-high roller that the OCC has just added to its quarterly reports: Goldman Sachs.

According to the OCC, Goldman Sachs' total credit exposure at year-end was 1,056 percent, or over ten times more than its capital.

The folks at Goldman think they're smart, and they are. They say they can handle large risks, and usually they can. But not in a sinking global economy! And not when the exposure reaches such stratospheric extremes!

Major Impact on the Stock Market

In the 1930s, the banking crisis helped drive the economy into depression and the stock market into its worst decline of the century.

The same is happening today. Whether the nation's big banks are bailed out by the federal government or not, the fact remains that they're jacking up credit standards, squeezing off credit lines, and even shutting down major segments of their lending operations.

And regardless of how much lawmakers try to arm-twist banks to lend more, it's rarely happening. With scant exceptions, bank capital has been reduced, sometimes decimated. The risk of lending has gone through the roof. And many of the more prudent borrowers don't even want bank loans to begin with.

Those credit shortages, both acute and chronic, have a big impact on the economy and the stock market. Moreover, unlike the 1930s, banks themselves are publicly traded companies whose shares make up a substantial portion of the S&P 500.

The big lesson to be learned: Don't pooh-pooh comparisons between today's bear market and the deep bear market of 1929-32.

From its peak in 1929, the Dow Jones Industrials Average fell 89 percent. Compared to the Dow's peak in 2007, that would be tantamount to a plunge of more than 12,600 points — to a low of approximately 1500, or an additional 81 percent decline from the Friday's 7776.

Even a decline of half that magnitude would still leave the Dow well below the 5000 level, which remains our current target.

Does this preclude sharp rallies? Absolutely not! From its recent March 6 bottom to last week's peak, the Dow has already jumped a resounding 21 percent in just 20 short days. And the rally may still not be over.

But this is nothing unusual. In the 1929-32 period, the Dow enjoyed even sharper rallies, and those rallies did nothing to end the great bear market. My father, who made a fortune shorting stocks in that period, explains it this way:

"In the 1930s, at each step down the slippery slope of the market's decline, Washington would periodically announce some new initiative to turn things around.

"President Hoover would give a new pep talk promising ‘prosperity around the corner.' And often, the Dow staged dramatic rallies — up 30 percent on the first round, 48 percent on the second, 23 percent on the third, and more.

"Each time, I sought to use the rallies as selling opportunities. I persuaded more of my clients to get rid of their stocks and pile up cash. I even told them to take their money out of shaky banks."

Your approach today should be similar. Specifically,

Step 1. Keep as much as 90 percent of your money SAFE, as follows:

For your banking needs, seek to use only institutions with a Financial Strength Rating of B+ or better. For a list, click here. Then, in the index, scroll down to item 13, "Strongest Banks and Thrifts in the U.S."
Make sure your deposits remain comfortably under the old FDIC insurance coverage limits of $100,000. The new $250,000 per account limit is temporary and, in my view, not something to rely on long term.
Move the bulk of your money to Treasury bills or equivalent. You can buy them (a) directly from the U.S. Treasury Department by opening an account at TreasuryDirect, (b) through your broker, or (c) via a Treasury-only money market fund. For further instructions, click here and review sections 1 through 3 — "How to Buy Treasury Bills or Equivalent," "How to Use Your Treasury-Only Money Fund as a Bank," and "How to Set Up a Single, Safe Account for Nearly All Your Savings and Checking."

Important: You may have seen some commentary from experts that "Treasuries are not safe." But when you review their comments more carefully, you'll probably see they're not referring to Treasury bills, which have virtually zero price risk. They're talking strictly about Treasury notes or bonds, which can — and probably will — suffer serious declines in their market value.

Step 2. If you missed the opportunity to greatly reduce your exposure to the stock market in 2007 or 2008, you now have another chance. And the more the market rises from here, the more you should sell.

Step 3. If you are still exposed to stock market declines, seriously consider inverse ETFs, ideal for helping you hedge against that risk. (For more background information, see my 2007 report, How to Protect Your Stock Portfolio From the Spreading Credit Crunch.)

Step 4. If you have funds you can afford to risk, seriously consider two major profit opportunities in the months ahead:

To profit handsomely from the market's next decline. The best time to start: When Wall Street pundits begin declaring "the bear is dead." They'll be wrong. But their enthusiasm can be one of the telltale signs that the latest rally is probably ending.
To profit even more when the market hits rock bottom and you can buy some of the nation's best companies for pennies on the dollar. The ideal time to buy: When Wall Street is convinced the world is virtually "coming to an end." They will be wrong, again. But that kind of extreme pessimism could be one of your signals that a real recovery is about to begin.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

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lookcc
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11-Apr-2009 00:00

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enormous tons of money idling n shud d major 2 or 3 banks in usa next wk post better than anticipated results, then tis wud turn out 2 b a mega rally but if they post worse than anticipated results then dump ur positions.....simple as that, huh.

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richtan
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10-Apr-2009 22:51

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Be careful, dun chase after stocks.

Markets are grossly overbought & ripe for corrections anytime.

All it takes is a loss of momentum, the music to stop the musical chair, or an adverse news to trigger a knee-jerk correction & u end up holding "hot potatoes".

Read today's Straits Times, pg D16 (10/4/09 Fri), I quote:

"Despite yesterday's renewed upswing, analysts said the upward momentum in Asian mkts would be hard to sustain, as investors were still troubled by economic concerns & fears about corporate earnings.

Technical indicators revealed tat Asian mkts were "showing signs of peaking this week"according to a CIMB Research report released yesterday.

It noted: "Volatility is expected to remain the order of the day and we would not be surprised if Asian markets tried to challenge their highs before correcting"

rabbitfoot ( Date: 10-Apr-2009 14:18) Posted:

Monday, strong rally will come. Shiok, shiok

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richtan
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10-Apr-2009 22:44

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Return of Stock Bulls Signals Time to Sell: Technical Analysis

By Patrick Rial

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Investors turned optimistic for the third time since the credit crisis started last year, gauges of sentiment among individual investors in the U.S. show, a pattern that Helmsman Global Trading says is a signal to sell.

The difference between the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index and Bear Index surged to 5.6 as of April 2. When the reading rose to 11.5 in November and 13.6 in January it coincided with the end of “bear-market rallies” of at least 21 percent by the MSCI World Index.

“What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.”

The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday.

The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists.

The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 9, 2009 19:56 EDT

rabbitfoot ( Date: 10-Apr-2009 16:51) Posted:

Shanghai Index UP about 3 %, Monday it's STI turn......

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teeth53
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10-Apr-2009 22:01

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Obama has five years to correct this recession, bold and correct decision is required by him.

Recession started some time in late 2007 in Bush time, went to into 2008 tail spin it down to early 1st Q 2009, Obama took over this job only beginning of this year 2009 to re-invent US economy by pumping alot more $$$ by printing more.

He is rebuilding an empire which lost it sense of direction due to world wide prolong recession.

cheongwee ( Date: 10-Apr-2009 15:16) Posted:

Yes, you are right??...funny thing is they said they do not know how to value them the CDO...

Then what the heck they tell us the losses is 1 trillion of dollar...

Worse is that they over leverage to the ear as report to some 200 trillion..dollars..

But now they report Well Fargo 3b profit...i wonder how they make it under this type of economic situation where every bank are reporting losses or even good bank are making less.

Just ask if Citi or Well a good bank?..just month back they are on the brink of bankruptcy...now on bailout fund.

Their so call profit are questionable, but since it bring rally, we just profit along as well, just be alert..that all we can do..........

teeth53 ( Date: 10-Apr-2009 13:21) Posted:

Question and more question....it a matter of trying to plug as many pot holes as ever as the pit is at the very bottom, it is very dark, no one can ever know how dark or how deep and how many holes to plug ?. We are at Stage four of credit melting stage where CASH is king...U interest to buy any toxin asset ?. the US treasurary anytime welcome U are right??...funny thing is they said they do not know how to value them the CDO...

Then what the heck they tell us the losses is 1 trillion of dollar...

Worse is that they over leverage to the ear as report to some 200 trillion..dollars..

But now they report Well Fargo 3b profit...i wonder how they make it under this type of economic situation where every bank are reporting losses or even good bank are making less.

Just ask if Citi or Well a good bank?..just month back they are on the brink of bankruptcy...now on bailout fund.

Their so call profit are questionable, but since it bring rally, we just profit along as well, just be alert..that all we can do..........

teeth53 ( Date: 10-Apr-2009 13:21) Posted:

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rabbitfoot
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10-Apr-2009 16:51

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Shanghai Index UP about 3 %, Monday it's STI turn......

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winsontkl
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10-Apr-2009 16:47

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Japan market doesn't show the strong push after the 150 billion package OR they have factor in on Thursday???

rabbitfoot ( Date: 10-Apr-2009 14:18) Posted:

Monday, strong rally will come. Shiok, shiok

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cheongwee
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10-Apr-2009 15:16

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Yes, you are right??...funny thing is they said they do not know how to value them the CDO...

Then what the heck they tell us the losses is 1 trillion of dollar...

Worse is that they over leverage to the ear as report to some 200 trillion..dollars..

But now they report Well Fargo 3b profit...i wonder how they make it under this type of economic situation where every bank are reporting losses or even good bank are making less.

Just ask if Citi or Well a good bank?..just month back they are on the brink of bankruptcy...now on bailout fund.

Their so call profit are questionable, but since it bring rally, we just profit along as well, just be alert..that all we can do..........

teeth53 ( Date: 10-Apr-2009 13:21) Posted:

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rabbitfoot
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10-Apr-2009 14:18

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Monday, strong rally will come. Shiok, shiok

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teeth53
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10-Apr-2009 13:21

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cheongwee
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10-Apr-2009 12:37

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Fro what i see from chart several of bear rally...my personal calculation is for a DOW of min 8400 or the very optimistic is 10000..30% to 60% from low..6445

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cheongwee
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10-Apr-2009 12:33

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bottom???..i hope so..but what make you think all thing is all fine...just becos some data slightly improve..

from experience...next round it could get worse..from history...did you read and see chart of dow from 1929...to 19 32...along the way there were alot of thing assume to shown economy is on the mend but later it turn out worse...so these are the causes of bear rally, or so call sucker rally...just look at chart for the varies crises sfter the big crashes..u can see several bear rally..

These rally act like "real" that is how it suck in ppl...just trade along will be fine..

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