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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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cwwan1
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11-Nov-2007 14:37
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Shorties, just a word of advise, CE mark is around the corner and it will be a immediate halt and when trading open,it will be a gap up. the small amount of kopi money is not worth the risk and also you have to constantly monitor closely. Bio is no more the same as before. After the Nobori result, i think a lot of BB are keeping this stock as part of theoir portfolio. Any time it will chiong.. |
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b52bomber
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11-Nov-2007 13:48
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Veteran, To state outstanding shares of Biosensor without a breakdown of % of free float and how much of it is in the hands of strong holders vs retail is not very meaningful. If volume is thin and no market depth, i.e. no buyers if bad news comes out or no sellers if good news comes out, shorting/short-covering plus buyers/sellers will move it easily by 15-20 cents either direction... we have all seen this before. It is true that investor conference did not report anything in the past. However, to preclude any announcement for this reason only.. i.e. this is the pattern lah... after 2 years of CE application will get more and more risky. Please remember that lawsuits and counter-law suits are very common in medical field hor! This is not unusual or a red flag you should look for... Unless a company copy another company's design or blatantly pirate something... Wining a lawsuit will also suggest that the company has strong grounds for its platform or its proprietary design. What you said about investor want to see profit is of course correct. If CE mark is granted. sales is ramped up, market share is captured even at current 'stagnant' prices. You have to ask yourself how do you value it versus a company that is 'burning cash', no approval, non recoverable R&D costs. If you value it much higher than obviously the share price will reflect it. I am not opposed to you putting across your view and the rationale behind it. I think it is better to look at all sides of the argument. This I thank you. However for pple like chinton68 to comment like below without offering any insights is counterproductive at best. Scaremongering or talking one's position at worst. "Alll...try to sell Biosenser asap! No joke" Btw, your Operation Sacrifice ... should be more correctly 'check' and not 'checkmate'. Checkmate is when you have all the information and knows the opposition has no other moves to counter your moves... obviously we all don't have the information yet... Monday will be interesting... ... |
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787180
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11-Nov-2007 13:18
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Biosensor has 1,046,490,933 shares as at 28 sept...U expect to shoot up 15-20cts will aslo be difficult..the run up from 82cts on Fri 9 Nov excluding shorting(81.5 to 79.5cts ) is actually our covering and BB built up the momentum for us as we just take wahtever the sellers price but sold off and double with shorting from 91 to 95cts...unlikley can sustain ..even if it attempetd $1.00 pending CE approval which is unlikley to announce together with the 3 qtr results...check its reporting history more for luncheon and gathering of all biz asscoiates.. I am not here to offence anyone esp those heavily vested but to state my side of the story to present a fair view.Its first qtr profits was misleading arising mainly from legal compensation..many by now hve forgetten Biosensor still have legal suits/counter suits in US and Europe( Bengster68 will be the best spokesman to clarify or coment here plse) In may 2006 the mini correction the stock came down from ab $1.25 dropping below $1.00...70cts and later even tested low of 58cts and in )ct 2006 the stock run up again on same rumour to ab 80 -$1.00 only to falter again...imagine those holding for > 2 years the wait of CE approval and in Europe the competitive pricing has caused the price of most stents to drop..how U expect Biosensor's stent to be superior..what investors want is profit..no point getting CE approval and yet the price of its stent remained stagnant and the R&D cost has already been a sunken cost will continue to drag down the co. Decang84 and chinton86 may be right to alert those vested to think with their head than to trade with their heart...I can understand many want the stock to go up to make $$$ just like when I even bought recently on Oct 29-30 when biosensor was about 80 to 83 cts but unloaded when it faied to break 98cts...I am not against the stock but buy with the view once can make $$$..sell..Somebody here posted Morgan Stanley bought large amounts from 68 to 80cts b4 the run up..hence I joined in too but beware the Angmo also recommended Chinamilk and China XXL(fertiliser) only to see the Chinamilks experienced delay in milk processing and was subsequently shot down...hence Morgan may be accurate too.... my advice is to buy when it was ,70cts and those vested to hold if U want to wait for TP of $3-$4 if takeover does happen...but for me only again no offence to agitate anyone..Operation Sacrifice is on on MOn 12 Nov...like in chess sacrifice yr Queen to checkmate |
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tiptop123
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11-Nov-2007 12:49
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chinton68, I got no intention to make you look stupid. But be more responsible in what you post. I believed you are new in investing, otherwise you won't have ask people such a question "Hi! Do I have to pay bokerage to subscribe to IPO?" 4-Nov-2007 18:36 |
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littlesun
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11-Nov-2007 12:40
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don understand what to run for?? all the indicator and sentimental are +ve, the only way for this liitle Bio is up lor |
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b52bomber
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11-Nov-2007 12:19
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Katek chinton86... Still waiting for your 'explanation' for your sell recommendation. Investor conference is at 12.30... after their announcements... if got good news... at 2pm when market reopens, it will just gap up like crazy. No chance to cover back and limit your loss. |
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bengster68
Master |
11-Nov-2007 11:51
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Ignore Chinton86's "tip-off". He cannot eleborate clearly why he make this sell call. He could be a shortie that haven't covered back yet last friday and now staring on potentially huge losses. Warren Buffet ever said if he has been buying based on market tip, he would have been a bankrupt by now. |
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joshconsultancy
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11-Nov-2007 11:24
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chinton86 wats the fuss abt? mayb u explain more on ur tip off u would sound more convincing? 
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chinton86
Veteran |
11-Nov-2007 11:20
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Alll...try to sell Biosenser asap! No joke |
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dcang84
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11-Nov-2007 11:18
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<787180, you keep saying "never fall in love with a stock". but it seems that you have clearly fallen in love with biosensors. <you have fallen in love with shorting this stock. in the past, those who are long on biosensors are wrong to have fallen in love with biosensors in the long direction. over this past period, you have profited from this and as a result have you fallen in love with shorting this stock? are you still correct to be in love with biosensors in the short direction? let's see. seeing that you have made money by profiting from the losses of biosensors supporters, there will be little sympathy for u amongst this group of supporters if u are wrong now and lose big on BIG. > Hi bros, 787180 is in it for the money. He is merely advocating that investors use more head than heart when investing. I dun see anything wrong with that. Chill out and let's watch how it unfolds. 
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jackjames
Elite |
11-Nov-2007 09:07
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your reply will make him feel great and happy, ha ha.. by the way, you really believe every single statements posted at this forum are real? especially buy up and sell down with huge lots. some people do paper trading, some people talk cocks.. some people talk sense, so, don't take it too hard.. pick some good reply and secretly follow it.. others we just read it as novel.. heee.. |
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poiuyt
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11-Nov-2007 02:40
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787180, you keep saying "never fall in love with a stock". but it seems that you have clearly fallen in love with biosensors. you have fallen in love with shorting this stock. in the past, those who are long on biosensors are wrong to have fallen in love with biosensors in the long direction. over this past period, you have profited from this and as a result have you fallen in love with shorting this stock? are you still correct to be in love with biosensors in the short direction? let's see. seeing that you have made money by profiting from the losses of biosensors supporters, there will be little sympathy for u amongst this group of supporters if u are wrong now and lose big on BIG. |
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Tianchi
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10-Nov-2007 23:01
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First post in ShareJunction; hence saying hello to everybody, especially bengster68 who had kindly share his wealth of knowledge on this counter. I totally share his believe that BIG will not disappoint to all investor. Vested and will accumulate on dip. |
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bengster68
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10-Nov-2007 22:26
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I said this before: Other DES rivals may have their CE but none of them have top class clinical results like BIG does. The proven clinical results are where investors like you and i can take comfort in. If BIG's clinical results are only so-so, I will not be bothered to buy BIG's shares even if their CE is approved. If BIG's clinical trial is poor, I would have dumped all by BIG shares immediately. Nothing about falling in love with BIG or whatsoever. I have confidence BIG will eventually be a truly global DES powerhouse. I have said many times over and over again, buy with a longer term view and buy only when you are convinced BIG has the best DES technology and has potential to be a DES major player. If you don't have this view, better don't buy. I feel this company is still an undiscovered gem and unappreciated yet. When more people finally realise BIG's full potential one year later, they have to pay much more for this stock. Just on 50% JWMS alone should add another 50cts per share to BIG's valuation and the market has yet to factor it into BIG's valuation. |
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EastWind
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10-Nov-2007 19:51
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What exactly is "dont fall in love with a stock'? Try telling Warren Buffet that. Did he fall in love with his stocks? No. He would sell in a second if he thought the fundamentals had changed. What has changed for BIG? Nothing. Would Bro Beng and I sell BIG in an instant if suddenly, the fundamentals for this stock had changed - you betcha! I am no fool and Bro Beng is probably a lot smarter than I am. There is nothing wrong with those who trade in and out. But I believe in making a fortune, not ikan bilis. The only way to make a fortune is to hold - and you dont need Warren Buffet to tell you that. |
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bengster68
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10-Nov-2007 18:57
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Someone wrote: Medical counter best to avoid with so many regulatory approvals and if don't do well result in deaths..imagine the huge legal suits...listing in NASDAQ...unlikley bros and sis..$4-$5 TP laugh till my belly ache...yes once in 2005 it did hit ab $1.55 after that never see daylight..delays after delays.... $4 to $5 is not impossible. Even if BIG is not bought up, this TP is very possible in 2010. If it is an impossible TP, the key shareholders would have already sold to JNJ at $2. These insiders know the true worth of BIG. Also, are you suggesting not to invest in drug and medical device companies? There are so many such blue chip companies in USA and Europe and so many of them are in portofolio of large global institutional funds. Some of these drug and medical device companies are bigger than Singapore Temasek. BSX was once a pathetic stent maker but its market cap hit US$40B to US$50B in 2003 to 2004 this it was during the most horrible bear period of global equities. BSX uses IP of Angiotech and have to pay them huge royalty payments yearly. BIG has proprietary IPs and best stent technology. In my opinion, past share performance has little prediction use for future share performance predictions. Focus on the company's achievement and potential. The only suay thing about this company is CE delay and late-thrombosis issue plaguing DES industry. I believe BIG is the answer to late-thrombosis problem in the DES industry. When watching Channel U's "The Conqueror", i can't help but to relate BIG's plight is similar to Han Xing. Everyone look down on him because he had to crawl underneath a group of gangsters' legs to keep his own life from being harmed. But it is only Han Xing that can eventually defeat the invincible Chu Ba Wang. Han Xing is very brilliant and top class military strategist but no king fully recognises his talents and look down on his past suayness. Liu Bang finally took him in as Commander-in-Chief and eventually defeated all his enemies and started the Han Dynasty. Don't not underestimate this BIG laggard. One fine day all will be shocked how much this dog is truly worth. |
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787180
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10-Nov-2007 16:00
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am not against anybody here but regard everyone as friends but just want to share my full time trdaing experience.Biosensor is my favourite counter as it can suddenly spike up and also suddenly fizzle out..one has to be at the screen the whole day monitoring the mkt depth and charts and your dealers hve to be on standy ready to take your orders as internet trading got limits esp if U want to short or push up like the BBs..one person effort is unlikley to succeed..I shorted all the way on Fri Oct 9 81.5 ..81...80.5..80..79.5cts but kept seeing the buying coming up and and I know it was coming but still did not cover waiting for comfirmation..when it crossed 83cts..I bought double the quantity I shorted from 83 to 87 cts..incurring losses over here but luckily it soar to 91 to 95cts where I threw completely out and using CFDs to short double the amount knowing the stock is top heavy..about 2 weeks ago history repeats after that the stock just drifted downwards as many sellers are at 96 to $1.00..not recommended to adopt my trading strategy as U hve to be at screen all the time and yr dealers must hve pte phone lines esp big amounts cannot be shorted or bought using internet trading..besides I've special privileges in terms of lower comissions brokerages as my breakeven is relatively easy to achieve...
Never fall in love with a stock..it only enables U to make money..deeply in love and hold if it is not only going to perform can be fatal esp with time and opportunity cost involved.Biosensor ever hit a high of $1.55 before but till to date as for 2007 it has never crossed $1.15 after hitting a high this yr of about $1.12..after that it drifted down all the way to a trading range 60 to 70cts..how much it can go current is about $1.20 the most esp with so many stuck so even if it really got CE approval there is still ample time to catch back..unlikey the 50 to 80cts move witnessed in a day...I am not against bengster68 but appreciate his technical comments and sharing on the stent. I also doubt Biosensor which is to report its earnings soon will release at tha same time the good news of CE approval but maybe in the near future as it is >2 years since co has applied for it.Besides co will continue to be worn down by R &D cost which takes time to yield tangible results and is likely to affect its P & L and no doubt its venture into China and Indonesia and > costs will hve to be incurred and the recent pte placement at about 65ct for its foray (purchase of medical firm) into China will provide good support for the counter if Mon 12 turned out to be a drastic correction.Take care and trade with caution as Biosensor maybe one day make good returns for those who can hold...sincerely hope those vested can achieve TP $3-$4 to compensate for their dogged determination...cheers and have a fruitful weekend |
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bengster68
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10-Nov-2007 12:56
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BIG still has over US$70m cash now. Can last a long time. But if they start STEALTH2 clinical trial (at least 1500 patients), it will start burning more cash again. But if BIG start STEALTH2, thats very good news as it will start after FDA IDE in the pocket (should be somewhere end of 2007) and we know for sure BIG will do extremely well in STEALTH2. This is because STEALTH2 is Biomatrix against Taxus Liberte to be used for FDA PMA approval. And we already know how STEALTH2 will perform based on the results of NOBORI (Biomatrix) vs Taxus Liberte that was published last month end even though NOBORI 1 phase 2 is a small scale trial involving about 230 patients. The results between STEALTH2 and NOBORI1 phase 2 should be more or less about the same. We also note that in NOBORI1 phase1 (120 patient trial), NOBORI (Biomatrix)beat Taxus Express with similar stunning good results back in Oct 2006. When it comes to clinical trials, Biomatrix no confirm horse run. Confirm chiet all other DESs by very wide margins. Just just Nissan GTR, no other competitor's street race machine comes close. The undisputed leader in performance. But when it comes to regulatory approvals....... there is not much BIG can do as the chao ang mohs are the approving body. But if BIG is bought up by USA MNCs, approvals will be faster than we expect. Thats always the case. |
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junction
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10-Nov-2007 12:07
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Does anyone know how long will Biosensors last assuming no CE at the rate it is burning up capital? |
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bengster68
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10-Nov-2007 11:55
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I wouldn't be playing contra, shorting or something very very short-term thing. You are playing against the BBs, the professionals with huge war chest that can over-power we retail players anytime. Plus they have their own insider news, team of analysts, well co-ordinated strategies and they are the smart money. It is difficult for us, retail players, to beat them with the resources we have. I think we better play this game within what we are competent of. Make less error and silly mistakes on our part (have self-disciplined), and score when an opportunity arise, i think we still can make some money here. And don't be greedy!!! $3 within the next few months could be a reality provided takeover happens. Without takeover (huge premium), this stock will not hit this TP. Conditions to hit $3 if we stay solo are: Biomatrix is selling very well in EU standard countries and FDA approval somewhere in mid of 2009. I have an article about takeover to share here and see if BIG fits in as a possible takeover target. You guys think over for yourself as you are solely in charge of your own investments. The Takeover Frenzy? and How to Take Advantage of It Is anything more exciting for a stock market investor than the sudden news that one of his holdings has received an unexpected takeover bid? Typically, the stock shoots up immediately... and then rival bidders often emerge in the days ahead, driving the stock higher still. It?s a profitable scenario that has played out hundreds of times over the past two years. Last year, worldwide deal volume hit $3.8 trillion, enough to surpass the previous record of $3.4 trillion set in 2000. Interestingly enough, though, the bulk of the activity (almost 35%) happened in the fourth quarter. This late-year strength has continued into 2007, with deal volume for the first nine months topping $3.6 trillion, a 50% increase compared to the same period a year-ago. The primary driver is an abundance of cash, both on the balance sheets of corporate America, and in the form of cheap financing. When it comes to cash, we?re near record levels, equal to roughly 6% of the S&P 500?s market cap. Compare this to the last boom, when cash was close to 2.5%, and there?s plenty of money left to fuel the current one. As for cheap financing, we all know this firsthand, as our mailboxes have been stuffed for years with no-interest or low-interest credit card and mortgage offers. And it?s no different for corporations. They can take their healthy cash positions and multiply their buying power by taking advantage of historically low interest rates. Again, if you go back to the last M&A boom, interest rates were about 1.5% higher, suggesting there?s plenty of room before borrowing costs become prohibitive to deal activity. As for the credit crunch, it dried up private equity financing almost immediately. But I consider it temporary and actually a positive development. Now, strategic buyers can get back to their acquiring ways. Before the credit crunch, they were forced to sit on the sidelines as private equity shops pushed the offer prices up for compelling takeover targets to unjustifiable levels. What factors do you use in determining which companies are likely takeover candidates? For starters, I can never downplay the importance of credible rumors. Just like we all have trouble keeping personal secrets, so too do Wall Street?s elite. And since due diligence starts months in advance of any takeover announcement, there is plenty of time for information to slip out. My cherished contacts from my time on Wall Street are invaluable here. When it comes to more objective, fundamental criteria, I look for the following: Industries that are consolidating. Takeovers come in spurts, and often remain within particular industries. By focusing on those undergoing the most rapid consolidation, it?s easy to narrow the field of possible investments down quickly. Insider buying. No one knows a company better than the insiders. And if they?re preparing the company for a sale in the next year, an increase in buying often indicates the same. Undervalued assets. At the end of the day, a company is acquired because it owns a particular asset, whether it?s market share, a new product, distribution channels, etc. And these assets, which are valuable to the acquirer, are often undervalued by the market. ***Do keep some BIG shares for longer term holdings. We wouldn't know when this baby will hit the jackpot. You do your own calculations. But these are the facts: There is a stent war going on among the DES major players like JNJ, BSX, ABT and MDT (so top class clinical result is the most important weapon to defeat the rivals) so things are looking pretty good for this baby. JWMS (huge China and 3rd world countries market where new demand will come from), proprietary IP (Biolimus A9, biodegredable polymer) and well established patents, revolutionary product answering to a pressing industry need (very low restenosis and no late-thrombosis) and proven best clinical results winnning by very wide margins against leading DES, etc. BIG is currently the very last worthwhile target in the whole DES industry. |
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