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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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idesa168
Elite |
13-Nov-2007 12:49
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At this rate the counter is falling, we can't see any light ahead of the tunnel. This counter was priced at 70¢ before the surge to 99¢, and the euphoria died off almost immediately. I have no question on the BIG being potential mkt leader in its industry, but the mkt NEVER, NEVER like uncertainty, I am talking about CE approval. Bengster, the BB may have bought at 82¢, but that does not warrant them to push price higher. They might have unloaded a few days back, or they can short this counter as their fund is huge and strong. We retail investors cannot challenge such people. I will not be convinced if there is any buy up in the afternoon. Knowing the BBs too well (just guessing), they will push price up a few notches and throw later leaving us carry their baby. With today's mkt sentiment, there is only sell, no buy! My watchlist are all red currently. There might be more selling in the afternoon if my guess is right. So I am staying sideline and watch the show. Cheers. |
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bengster68
Master |
13-Nov-2007 12:12
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My opinion is don't buy and don't sell yet if you are already vested. BIG is very confident CE will be approved and CFO hinted a very conservative approval is early Jan 2008 right after Christmas Holidays. However, if you haven't bought it cheap before 29/10 chiong and willing to hold for 2 months until early Jan 2008, you may consider buying some when it drop. With CE a certainty and conservative approval date is early Jan 2008, i don't think the BBs will not let this stock drop too much during this stage. We have seen how they push up this stock twice over the past few days. I estimate the BB's average price should be around 82cts if they buy from 29/10 onwards. I feel BBs will push this stock to about $1.30 after CE announcement. Just my opinion and not an inducement to buy. |
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A02041315
Senior |
13-Nov-2007 11:04
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CHEONG!AR BIG!!!!!!!! |
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garfgarf
Member |
13-Nov-2007 10:39
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I also think that CE approval is near. During the last quarterly result announcement on 13 Aug 2007, the CEO said that CE was awaiting existing clinical data. Therefore, the NOBORI results should have been submitted shortly after the Aug quarterly result announcement. Hopefully, CE approval comes shortly after the latest result announcement!!! Then we can see the CHIONG!!! |
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dcang84
Veteran |
13-Nov-2007 10:25
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<Our fair value is now S$0.99 (vs S$1.21). Maintain BUY.. We adopt the typical Medtech valuation of discountingManagement have indicated that revenue forecastsBIG has reiterated that no additional clinical tests/l. BIG's acquisition of PT Fondaco as a directBIG's recent 50% acquisition of JWMS gives it a. Biosensors International Group (BIG) reported 2Q08 results.> Giving shortist more ammo? |
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bengster68
Master |
13-Nov-2007 10:12
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The Biomatrix CE 100% will be approved and that is one thing for sure. It is just a matter of when. The CFO hinted could be early Jan 2008 (after the "holidays" which i take as Christmas holidays). CE has no further questions to BIG and BIG is just waiting for the "Note of Approval" from CE. The last data CE wanted was NOBORI1 ph 2 trial data which BIG submitted some time ago already (i suspect 2 months ago based on my last trial patient enrollment calculation) and we know this trial has stunningly good results. However, the CFO is an accountant and accountants follow the "rule of conservatism". He would rather error on the conservative side by saying a further date than saying a near date. |
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eurekaw
Master |
13-Nov-2007 09:54
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Got to wait about 5 mths and maybe the CE mark will be approved? |
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clauswu
Member |
13-Nov-2007 09:03
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OCBC just posted their latest assessment with TP of 0.99: Biosensors International Group: In transition Shifting gears with product sales rising 10% YoY to US$9.2m despite the difficult industry conditions. But BIG expectedly reverted back to a net loss of US$11m for the quarter. Gross margins dropped across all product segments due to shifting of manufacturing to low cost base for critical care products and shift of focus from present Axxion Drug Eluting Stents (DES) to Bare Metal Stents (BMS).
A foot in China's door.
foot in the Chinese DES market. This accretive acquisition is synergistic
with BIG's plans for growth as it latches onto JWMS' state-of-the-art, yet
low cost manufacturing facilities. We expect BIG's access to JWMS'
extensive national sales network of 5,400 healthcare organisations and
2,700 hospitals along with JWMS' strong brand equity in China to introduce
unique Drug Eluting Stent (DES) products to the Chinese healthcare market
in the future. (Table 1 for JWMS projections)
Indonesia a good potentia
distributor will help it achieve its plan of capturing part of Indonesia's yearly
estimated 5k-7k interventional procedures. An MOU with state-owned PT
Kimia will help boost sales as BIG aims to have its coronary products
distributed to the >390 hospitals under its jurisdiction. However, we do not
expect Indonesia to contribute significantly in the near term.
When is CE coming?
data have been required by authorities and that it expects positive news
about CE mark going into CY08. It also indicated that its IDE application in
the US is in progress though US$100m (BIG may need to raise funds 2-3
years later) may be needed to get approval to sell in the US.
Its still up in the air.
are inappropriate until the CE mark is approved. Despite the patchy info,
we remodel our financials as we assume CE mark approval between Jan
and Mar 08, Terumo licensing revenue to start in CY09 and consolidation
of JWMS.
We still like them
BIG's first substantial year of profit (in FY10) back to present day.
Our fair value is now S$0.99 (vs S$1.21). Maintain BUY. |
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investor
Senior |
13-Nov-2007 08:25
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U should use a earpiece, so that it is clearer. Go to Biosensors website, under their 'international' page - it is there. |
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dinola
Member |
13-Nov-2007 07:46
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hi investor, can you advise how to listen to audio conference? Thanks |
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bengster68
Master |
13-Nov-2007 00:35
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The key points are highlighted by Mr Investor. Good job! |
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EastWind
Member |
12-Nov-2007 22:25
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Have listened to it but audio not so good in parts. Anyone knows whether there is a transcript? The CEO and CFO came across as sharp and intelligent. |
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investor
Senior |
12-Nov-2007 21:40
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After listening to the audio conference, 3 things were observed : 1) The fact that CE authorities have got the additional clinical trials data from the Nobori phase 2, augurs well for CE mark approval, plus the fact that the CFO Kevin sayer says that the CE auth should get back to them within 12-14 weeks, IS AN indication of an informal guidance to CE mark approval date, (When questioned by an analyst as to the time frame in terms of mths, years, Kevin quickly added that it SHOULD NOT be in terms of Years.) 2) When Kevin was asked whether the mgmt have considered licensing the FDA approval clinical trials to another company, He quickly added that they are always evaluating things that are beneficial to shareholders (words to that effect). This possibility, if it is true, will be a tremendous boost to Biosensors, as it frees their resouces to concentrate on Asia, while probably getting them one-time licensing fees as well. (again, just a conjecture, based on the conversation between the analyst and Kevin). )Kindly go and listen to the audio conference and form your own conclusion. 3) The CEO Yoh Chi, talks about clear plans to go into China with Biomatrix, the next few quarters. When, queried by an analyst, he says that in order for that to happen, Biomatrix needs the CE mark approval first - again, an indirect indicator of the mgmt's confidence, this time round. THe above are my own personal interpretation of the audio conference, and investors/traders should form their own conclusion, by listening to the audio conf. Again, not an inducement to trade. |
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bengster68
Master |
12-Nov-2007 18:32
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ANNOUNCEMENTBIOSENSORS INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LTD.
(Company Registration Number: EC 24983)
Update on Information Pursuant to Earnings Call Pursuant to the earnings conference call held today, Biosensors International Group, Ltd
wishes to update that as a sino-foreign cooperative joint-venture, JW Medical Systems Ltd
("JWMS") is entitled to be exempted from enterprise income tax for two years commencing from January 2006 and thereafter a 50 percent reduction in enterprise income tax for the subsequent three financial years.
*** JWMS is right on track to make at least US$15m this year with revenue of about US$40m. And it is tax free for 2007 so BIG's share will be at least US$7.5m. Next year JWMS will be hitting a pre-tax profit of at least US$25m. |
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cwwan1
Member |
12-Nov-2007 17:19
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Another guy posting around to ask pple to short.. sigh. |
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bengster68
Master |
12-Nov-2007 17:13
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garfgarf
Member |
12-Nov-2007 17:12
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My feeling is that Trading Halt pending CE APPROVAL will be called anytime between 13 - 23 November, assuming the NOBORI results were submitted to CE panel in early September. DO NOT GIVE UP DURING THE LAST LAP OF THIS RACE!!! LET THE SHORTISTS SHORT ALL THEY WANT. THEY WILL ONLY END UP LOSING $$$ |
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huatah
Veteran |
12-Nov-2007 17:00
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Isqnet.. whether bengster68 provides hopes to ppl is up to each and everyone to determine themselves. Bengster simply provided us with his unselfishness information. whether or not it is useful, true or not, it up to individual. He had never once.. pointed a gun at anyone and demanded all must buy BIG. None of us are predictor.. if we r.... no need to work liao lor.. Invest oni if u believe tis counter will shine. Like i believed that Yang can shine.. but it failed me.. can i push de blame to those who highly recommended tat counter? |
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lsqnet
Member |
12-Nov-2007 16:49
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Stop gaving ppl hopeless hope. |
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bengster68
Master |
12-Nov-2007 16:37
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Nothing is certain except death and tax. Also, I am certain you are a shortists with short positions. Nice try shortie. |
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