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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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cwwan1
Member |
16-Nov-2007 10:16
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CE around the corner... |
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cashiertan
Elite |
16-Nov-2007 10:12
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shorted and making money as mentioned on yesterday posting. now see how low it can go |
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casper
Member |
16-Nov-2007 10:11
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sold mine with some slight loss, will buy again later. |
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Centaur
Veteran |
16-Nov-2007 09:57
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what happened to this counter, suddenly fall so much? wanted to buy some but pull out last min cos not sure whats going on... |
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bengster68
Master |
16-Nov-2007 01:22
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Sorry hor, maintain TP $1.21 is for internal circulation only. For external circulation, please put TP must drop to 99cts to scare retail investors so their asset management fund can buy some more cheap. |
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bengster68
Master |
16-Nov-2007 01:15
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This was what i posted on 30/10. It is from the same as the TP 99cts securities house. ***FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY*** In a press release today (29/10), Biosensors (BIG) has revealed that one of its major licensees, Terumo Corp, has yielded positive results from its NOBORI I trial which utilises BIG's S-stent platform, biodegradable polymer and anti-restenotic drug, Biolimus A9. Of particular interest is that NOBORI incurred 0% stent thrombosis, indicating that BIG's technology is showing very strong signs of overcoming this present looming medical condition that has reduced the use of DES worldwide. We have iterated in our previous reports that BIG's licensees will play a crucial role in obtaining its CE mark by authenticating its technologies in a positive manner. With these recent announcements during the significant annual TCT conference, we are expectant for a speedier approval for its CE mark. We continue to like BIG for its strong IP protection, recent geographical diversification and cutting edge technologies that are being authenticated by 3rd parties like Xtent and Terumo. Though we are mindful that there will be a revenue guidance revision during 2Q08, BIG remains one of our favourites in the Medical Device sector. Maintain BUY with fair value of S$1.21. Biosensors International Group (BIG) reported 2Q08 results with product sales rising 10% YoY to US$9.2m despite the difficult industry conditions but expectedly reverted back to a net loss of US$11m for the quarter. Overall gross margins dropped due to operational restructuring and shift in focus of products. We expect BIG's 50% acquisition of JWMS in China to be accretive and give it a spring board for the Chinese DES market that is anticipated to grow some 50-70% in the next 2 years. BIG also expanded to Indonesia but we don't expect significant contribution in the near term. Despite patchy info on forecasts and regulatory approval, we remodel our financials as we assume CE mark approval between Jan and Mar 08, Terumo licensing revenue to start in CY09 and consolidate JWMS. We adopt the typical Medtech valuation of discounting BIG's first substantial year of profit (in FY10) back to present day (see Table 2). Our fair value is now S$0.99 (vs S$1.21). Maintain *BU Y*. In just less than 2 weeks their TP can drop 20%. It reminds me of this year's best analyst award that went to a Citigroup analyst because he downgraded a marine stock to SELL. But a few months later he upgraded to a STRONG BUY, later again upgrade to OUTPERFORM and everyone chiong for the shares. The shares hit his new TP and everyone thinks he is a genius. I think he is a genius in market manipulation that made a lot of money for his fund house. I will give you an even worse analyst probably kena fock by his boss for not recommending his asset management team to buy before the huge run-up on 29/11 and still sleeping. There was not even a single mention of both NOBORI 1 phase 1 and 2 trial results which prove Biomatrix is the best performing DES globally and NOBORI results are the final data CE wants to see to make a final decision. Singapore Zhengjie Zhuo (65) 64167812 zhengjie.zhuo@clsa.com 2Q08 Results 12 November 2007 Please see important notice on last page Page 1 of 2 2Q08 resultsCLSA boss: Wake up you chinaman! Our asset management team focking miss the whole chiong with CE almost in the bag now and you better give a low TP and spread it far and wide so we can enter cheap again you idiot! Zhengjie Zhuo: Yes Boss!!! Biosensors announced a loss of US$11m for 2Q08, bringing 1H08 losses to US$3m, after recognising a one-off exceptional item of US$15m for the previous quarter. Unsurprising results Product revenues grew by 10% - critical care products (15%) and interventional cardiology (8%).
Starting this quarter, Biosensors has classified sales of traditional interventional cardiology products and drug eluting stents (DES) into a single product segment. We think this reduces transparency.
Sales of bare metal stents increased in the Japanese markets, but DES sales declined.
Licensing revenues were not material.
Gross margins decreased overall. For critical care products, it was due to restructuring of manufacturing activities in Asia, and for interventional cardiology products, it was due to higher provisions for inventory obsolescence and product returns. Developments Biosensors is still awaiting approval for CE Mark for Biosensors.
The company made three significant transactions in the quarter.
First, Biosensors completed the acquisition of 50% of JW Medical Systems, which will be accretive to operating results, given that revenue range is US$35-40m, and profit before tax margin is ~40%.
Biosensors also acquired certain businesses from a leading medical product distributor in Indonesia, which allows the company to have a direct sales presence for its products in Indonesia.
Finally, the company signed a MOU with PT Kimia Farma, a state-owned healthcare company in Indonesia to distribute the Company?s current coronary products to more than 390 government hospitals and to eventually localise the manufacturing of the Company?s bare-metal stents and assessory products to serve that market.
While these developments are overall positive, we believe that the key drag to the business is the prolonged delay of CE Mark regulatory approval for BioMatrix.
Until then, we remain our SELL call on Biosensors with a TP of S$0.76.
***I feel CLSA's TP for one year later at 76cts is ridicious. One year from now, CE in the bag, FDA IDE in the bag, Biomatrix captured 3% of global DES, JWMS making at least US$25m for 2008 and BIG will unlocked JW's value adding another 50cts per share to BIG's shareprice, massive LEADERS trial will show solid conclusive evidence that Biomatrix is globally the best DES. More milestone payments of about US$20m coming in from licensees: Terumo for their Japan and CE approval, Devax's and Xtent's CE approval and FDA IDE. Devax will be listed by then BIG owns 5% in both Xtent and Devax with additional 5% options in both companies to purchase at a low price. Xtent and Devax's share price will soar after their own CE and FDA IDE approval. If BIG is not bought up by JNJ or other DES major players, i think i should be trading about $2 one year later. This CLSA Chinaman analyst know nuts about BIG's proprietary IP and patents. Even if all the 4 stent majors combine and spend hundreds of millions(USD) also cannot come out something close to what BIG has achieved in clinical result performance. BIG is clearly on the way to become a global DES major player. Product sales grew about 10% but gross margins declined from 42% to 34%.
We believe the prolonged delay in the BioMatrix approval will continue to be a drag to the company. We maintain our SELL call with a TP of S$0.76 |
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poiuyt
Member |
15-Nov-2007 17:30
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typically, investors buy low, sell high. bengster, who is the main driver for information has always said buy low and don't chase price. its traders who want to buy high, sell higher. buy on breakouts, etc. dangerous strategy, but plenty of pple make $$ consistently. but those who go in at wrong timing end up holding the baby. so, if its a fundamentally sound company, buy when the price is low and everybody is selling. if its a kelong company, dun buy even when its low. low can get lower. |
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huatah
Veteran |
15-Nov-2007 17:22
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Hi Hi.. i guess there isn't right or wrong here.. everyone here trying to make some $$$. for me.. kopi $$.. travelling $$..watever.. de perspective from ea investor is different. some r long term investor and some are quickie.. so let's respect ea other for the freedom of speech.. or should i say.. freedom to write.. Reader will digest all relevant info.. Blame himself or herself if he/she made the wrong choice. average day for today stock.. let's hope for better tmr... |
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huatah
Veteran |
15-Nov-2007 17:14
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Great info.. tks poiuyt.. |
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787180
Master |
15-Nov-2007 17:09
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A02041315 whether or not U make $$$ from stocks depend on yr entry and exit points.When I recommended it was 15 to 20cts b4 it soared to 40 to 55cts.anyway let the Mr market to decide who is right,yes U've the right to insist on holding Biosensor what what makes $$$$ is really shorting this counter swee swee 77.5cts every 1 cts drop is $10,000 in the pocket.I am not interested in Benz as someone here wanted but just to prove my decision is correct that Biosensor is going to drop .U may be right one day it would hit $4 if takeover coupled with CE aproval everything is possible so I am just posting my comments and no intention to offence anyone nor to mislead.Hope everyone make $$$ whether holding or shorting ,Mr Market will decide |
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poiuyt
Member |
15-Nov-2007 17:04
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in mar 2007, citigroup initiated coverage of cosco with a sell call. saying that at ard $2.7, its fully valued. look at price of cosco now. during that time, despite many poor analysts coverage, i studied cosco's continuous streams of project wins and concluded that all the analysts have their own agenda or they're just pure dumb. when cosco hits $4-5, analysts were jumping on top of each other to revise their neutral/sell calls to issue buy calls. and its now trading consistently above $6. tt's stock market for u..and traders try to be 1 step ahead of the movement...some make it..some don't.. |
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minesweeper
Member |
15-Nov-2007 16:58
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Its again falling like crazy... trade with care.... not vested... |
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cashiertan
Elite |
15-Nov-2007 16:16
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will short it via cfd if it drop another bid. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
15-Nov-2007 15:23
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not yet. still struggling on support. wait a while.. not vested |
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787180
Master |
15-Nov-2007 15:19
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reply to altmostthere no hurry to close those shorted >91cts let the market do it for youreslf drifting lower everyday...unless it suddenly shot up which is unlikley...put a stop to ensure gains lot in but the lower it goes the crystalised gains will be more.If it dropped to 70cts the one who bought 410,000 at 76cts will no longer want to dring Benz but maybe a sports bike...let the mkt works for U.No CE approval is downward trend..Coupled with bad analyst rept Posted by: investment On: 13th November 2007 09:22 AM *Biosensors International Group: In transition* *Summary:* Biosensors International Group (BIG) reported 2Q08 results with product sales rising 10% YoY to US$9.2m despite the difficult industry conditions but expectedly reverted back to a net loss of US$11m for the quarter. Overall gross margins dropped due to operational restructuring and shift in focus of products. We expect BIG's 50% acquisition of JWMS in China to be accretive and give it a spring board for the Chinese DES market that is anticipated to grow some 50-70% in the next 2 years. BIG also expanded to Indonesia but we don't expect significant contribution in the near term. Despite patchy info on forecasts and regulatory approval, we remodel our financials as we assume CE mark approval between Jan and Mar 08, Terumo licensing revenue to start in CY09 and consolidate JWMS. We adopt the typical Medtech valuation of discounting BIG's first substantial year of profit (in FY10) back to present day (see Table 2). Our fair value is now S$0.99 (vs S$1.21). Maintain *BU Y*. OCBC Investment Research ************ |
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chinton86
Veteran |
15-Nov-2007 15:11
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Sell |
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poppy_toyz
Member |
15-Nov-2007 15:04
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Back to square one liow... No news on CE...means bad news for shareholders.... |
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cashiertan
Elite |
15-Nov-2007 11:58
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risk to reward is high means. the risk to take for the reward is high. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
15-Nov-2007 11:54
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based on charts, this counter is mixed but oversold. cut lost at 0.79 if u are one who wanna long it. Risk to reward is pretty high... just stating what i seen, not siding anyone. for me, i would rather enter after 0.87 |
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almostthere
Member |
15-Nov-2007 11:44
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Hello Mr. Shortie, Where are you? Market is soft and volume for Biosensor is low. This is the time for you to push down the price. Show us some action 787180 or is it all talk? Greetings Bengster68, have a great weekend ahead. Cheers to good times coming. |
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