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GoldenAgr

GuavaXF30
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29-Feb-2012 10:36

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Rock and roll. Whole market is bullish now.

GuavaXF30 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 17:20) Posted:

Looks like strong support at 0.73 for this so far. Wonder what's gonna happen tomorrow.

ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 16:15) Posted:

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP, $0.73)

Key levels

Resistance 2: $0.80

Resistance 1: $0.75

Support 1: $0.70

Support 2: $0.62

The stock has staged a technical breakout below the ascending channel. This is often a negative signal that momentum is losing strength and a trend reversal is likely in the near term. RSI is reading below the neutral level which supports the negative bias. $0.70 is the level to watch a breach below this level indicates that further deterioration is possible.

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GuavaXF30
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28-Feb-2012 17:20

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Looks like strong support at 0.73 for this so far. Wonder what's gonna happen tomorrow.

ozone2002 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 16:15) Posted:

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ozone2002
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28-Feb-2012 16:15

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hpong5
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28-Feb-2012 15:09

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Due for more correction.

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Tropical
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28-Feb-2012 14:13

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May i know how much is the dividend giving out and when is the ex-dividend.Tks.

yummygd ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 18:27) Posted:

oh boy profit fell. darn it. but dividends went up. sigh god knows how tom it will go. hopefully i can offload my contra before it falls too much. darn total gamble on results.

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sgnewbie
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28-Feb-2012 10:45

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OCBC on GoldenAgri

http://sg-shares.blogspot.com/2012/02/golden-agri-resources.html

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krisluke
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28-Feb-2012 09:28

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GoldenAgri: Announced 4Q11 results which were below estimates. 4Q11 Rev at US$1.3b, +12% yoy and -16.7% qoq, while Core net profit at US$91m, -38% yoy and -17.3% qoq. Result brings FY11 rev to US$5.95b, +70% yoy and core net profit to US$571m, +48% yoy. Ebita Margins fell slightly at 15..8% vs 18.9% yoy.

For the qtr, decrease in palm products output and weaker CPO prices vs 4Q10 contributed to the poor results, further weighed upon by higher fertilizer costs and export tax. Positive refining margins by Indo’s export tax changes, was offset by negative export margins into China and India.

FY11 saw palm products output reached a record level at 2.64m ton, +16% yoy supported by favorable weather conditions and expansion of mature area by 27,300 ha, while Grp increased its FFB yield by 5% to 21.8ton/ha in 2011 from 20.8 ton/ha in 2010, while improvement of palm products yield was even larger at 6% to a notable 6.1 ton/ha, from 5.8 tons yoy, underpinned by higher oil extraction rate.

Going forward, grp remains confident of outlook, and continues to believe that the palm oil industry will stay resilient, underpinned by solid industry demand and supply fundamentals. Grp has budgeted ccapex of US$500 m for investments in upstream projects involving the expansion of plantation area and milling capacity, as well as investments in downstream projects to boost refining capacity and supporting facilities

We note that grp’s fundamentals remains strong, with a low gearing ratio on 9% and at current price, grp trades at 12.9x P/E. Technically, YTD high of $0.79 may act as a cap. Ratings as follow:

CIMB downgrades to neutral with $0.75 TP.
Deutsche maintains Hold with $0.75 TP
Goldman maintains Buy with $0.84 TP
Macquarie maintains Neutral with $0.83 TP
Merrill Lynch maintains Buy with $0.90 TP
UOB Kay Hian maintains Buy with $0.95 TP

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yummygd
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28-Feb-2012 09:20

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damn argi lost 410 in total. ahhh hahaha oh well treat it i pay 100 into casino n lost 320. took a total bet for their results. people count will never win heaven count. I WILL BE BACK!!!

bishan22 ( Date: 28-Feb-2012 09:04) Posted:

Sell down today. Waiting at 0.70 or less. Good luck.

bishan22 ( Date: 24-Feb-2012 15:11) Posted:

No regret to off load at 0.775. Will visit when it retrace to 0.70. Good luck

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bishan22
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28-Feb-2012 09:04

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Sell down today. Waiting at 0.70 or less. Good luck.

bishan22 ( Date: 24-Feb-2012 15:11) Posted:

No regret to off load at 0.775. Will visit when it retrace to 0.70. Good luck.

Tropical ( Date: 24-Feb-2012 10:36) Posted:

Anybody knows why GAR fell to 0.75? Thought CPO will rise. Tks.

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ChillX
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28-Feb-2012 08:22

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'indeed... correction means to move in the same direction.'

oops.. *correlation, not correction. Too focussed on the current market correction atm.. lol

ChillX ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 22:35) Posted:

indeed... correction means to move in the same direction. However, you don't seem to understand this at all.

You very confidently posted " will move in tandem" and had a TP of 78.5c. However, fact of the matter is, Crude Oil prices have increased, but GAR price has been decreasing. In tandem? high correlation? really?

Crude oil is now quoted at USD108.91 as of this post.

Note that I'm no expert or anything, but for you to blatantly try to misdirect people, well... maybe that's just you, but I definitely have to point it out.

ozone2002 ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 17:46) Posted:

isn't moving in tandem the same as high correlation?

I shall quote investopedia's definition on correlation

Investopedia explains 'Correlation'

Correlation is computed into what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. Perfect positive correlation (a correlation co-efficient of +1) implies that as one security moves, either up or down, the other security will move in lockstep, in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if one security moves in either direction the security that is perfectly negatively correlated will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the movements of the securities are said to have no correlation they are completely random.

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ChillX
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27-Feb-2012 22:35

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ozone2002 ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 17:46) Posted:

isn't moving in tandem the same as high correlation?

I shall quote investopedia's definition on correlation

Investopedia explains 'Correlation'

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yummygd
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27-Feb-2012 18:47

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oh well no point worrying about it..what will come will come. thanks for giving me a ray of hope though haha. i have that n e dividends...n hopefully a bb in gol argi to push e price up for me.

GuavaXF30 ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 18:41) Posted:

Profit lower because of Fair Valuation of biological assets. Core profit actually higher by 48%.

Fair valuation of biological assets is just that. Either higher or lower, it's not actual profit or loss.

But contra gains or loss most times not determined by how the company did. Just when people want to take position or take profit. For sure, if results not good, shorters will come out and sell. but if results good, may not mean price will run up either. Good luck.

yummygd ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 18:27) Posted:

oh boy profit fell. darn it. but dividends went up. sigh god knows how tom it will go. hopefully i can offload my contra before it falls too much. darn total gamble on results.

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GuavaXF30
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27-Feb-2012 18:41

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yummygd ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 18:27) Posted:

oh boy profit fell. darn it. but dividends went up. sigh god knows how tom it will go. hopefully i can offload my contra before it falls too much. darn total gamble on results.

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yummygd
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27-Feb-2012 18:27

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oh boy profit fell. darn it. but dividends went up. sigh god knows how tom it will go. hopefully i can offload my contra before it falls too much. darn total gamble on results.

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ozone2002
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27-Feb-2012 17:46

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isn't moving in tandem the same as high correlation?

I shall quote investopedia's definition on correlation

Investopedia explains 'Correlation'

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ChillX
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27-Feb-2012 17:38

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There is good correlation, agreed, as the price of raw materials do increase with increase in production cost, of which crude oil is a significant contributory factor. However, you did very confidently state : " oil 105..coming 106.. GAR will move in tandem..78.5.. gd luck"

Am just pointing out that you were wrong to make such a blatant statement, which you later amend to " a high correlation" which is VERY different from " will move in tandem" . Crude oil is now @106.87. GAR closed at 0.750, down 0.005 from its open price this morning.

No one can 100% predict correctly all the time, the direction a counter may move. Here I clearly state that I am the same, with regards this limitation in not having a crystal ball to let me see what's the future price, but I'm happy with GAR as a company and I will accumulate at prices I am happy with, though not at this time. :) Not claiming to be any sort of expert either and I definitely don't appreciate blatant claims that try to mislead newbies like me. :)

ozone2002 ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 13:53) Posted:

i have stated my reasons clearly..

GAR is a stock which has a high correlation to oil prices...

DYODD! gd luck!

ChillX ( Date: 25-Feb-2012 11:26) Posted:

You are entitled to your wrong opinion. Would have been more convincing if you had backed up your claim with some TA or reasons why. Looks like a downtrend for a week or more, as part of a general correction of the STI. Paying attention to TA for the bottom-out before re-vesting. Currently still downtrending based on Stochaistics, Ichimoku and Bollinger

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GuavaXF30
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27-Feb-2012 17:28

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Results just released. Another record year of revenue and profit for GAR.
Singapore, 27 February 2012
oil plantation company in Indonesia and the second largest in the world, concludes
2011 with a year of record performance, with full year revenue of almost US$6 billion,

a 70% increase from last year’s achievement bringing core net profit

million, higher by 48%.- Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (“GAR”), the largest palm1 to US$571

ozone2002 ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 14:55) Posted:

Here's some FA data to support the increase in palm oil consumption

UPDATE 1-Malaysia's Feb 1-25 palm oil exports up 4.5 pct-SGS

Reuters – 9 minutes ago

            

SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Exports of Malaysian
palm oil products for Feb. 1-25 gained 4.5 percent to 989,868
tonnes compared with 947,401 tonnes shipped during Jan. 1-25,
cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday. 	
    Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for Feb. 1-25 compared
to a month ago (in tonnes):   	
                                      PALM PRODUCTS 	
                                Feb. 1-25         Jan. 1-25     
    	
   Crude palm oil                 128,871            74,640	
   RBD palm oil                    99,633            81,998     
      	
   RBD palm olein                 517,260           520,743   	
   RBD palm stearin                76,610           105,082     
    	
   Crude palm kernel oil            6,900             5,000     	
   Processed palm kernel oil       43,735            39,360     	
   Oleochemicals                   42,813            37,774     
     	
     	
                                         TOP PALM MARKETS  	
                                Feb. 1-25          Jan. 1-25	
   European Union                 122,386            110,304	
   China                          261,420            198,866    
       	
   Pakistan                        22,500             65,929    
      	
   United States                   87,024             76,830	
   India                          105,625             73,000    	
     	
                               TOTAL PALM EXPORTS, BY MONTH  	
  Month                  Total          Net Change    m/m %	
  January              1,293,078         -193,496     -13.0	
  December             1,486,574          -50,982      -3.3	
  November             1,537,556         -146,521      -8.7	
  October              1,684,077          179,075      11.9	
  September            1,505,002         -115,406      -7.1
  August               1,620,408           -8,280      -0.5	
  July                 1,628,688          194,224      13.5 	
  June                 1,434,464           80,569       6.0	
  May                  1,353,895           32,827       2.5	
  April                1,321,068          203,486      18.2	
  March                1,117,582           24,962       2.3 	
  February             1,092,620         -109,748      -9.1	
  January              1,202,368         - 58,345      -4.6	
  December             1,260,713         -308,601     -19.7

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Tropical
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27-Feb-2012 15:19

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You holding for result?

ozone2002 ( Date: 27-Feb-2012 14:55) Posted:

Here's some FA data to support the increase in palm oil consumption

UPDATE 1-Malaysia's Feb 1-25 palm oil exports up 4.5 pct-SGS

Reuters – 9 minutes ago

            

SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Exports of Malaysian
palm oil products for Feb. 1-25 gained 4.5 percent to 989,868
tonnes compared with 947,401 tonnes shipped during Jan. 1-25,
cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday. 	
    Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for Feb. 1-25 compared
to a month ago (in tonnes):   	
                                      PALM PRODUCTS 	
                                Feb. 1-25         Jan. 1-25     
    	
   Crude palm oil                 128,871            74,640	
   RBD palm oil                    99,633            81,998     
      	
   RBD palm olein                 517,260           520,743   	
   RBD palm stearin                76,610           105,082     
    	
   Crude palm kernel oil            6,900             5,000     	
   Processed palm kernel oil       43,735            39,360     	
   Oleochemicals                   42,813            37,774     
     	
     	
                                         TOP PALM MARKETS  	
                                Feb. 1-25          Jan. 1-25	
   European Union                 122,386            110,304	
   China                          261,420            198,866    
       	
   Pakistan                        22,500             65,929    
      	
   United States                   87,024             76,830	
   India                          105,625             73,000    	
     	
                               TOTAL PALM EXPORTS, BY MONTH  	
  Month                  Total          Net Change    m/m %	
  January              1,293,078         -193,496     -13.0	
  December             1,486,574          -50,982      -3.3	
  November             1,537,556         -146,521      -8.7	
  October              1,684,077          179,075      11.9	
  September            1,505,002         -115,406      -7.1
  August               1,620,408           -8,280      -0.5	
  July                 1,628,688          194,224      13.5 	
  June                 1,434,464           80,569       6.0	
  May                  1,353,895           32,827       2.5	
  April                1,321,068          203,486      18.2	
  March                1,117,582           24,962       2.3 	
  February             1,092,620         -109,748      -9.1	
  January              1,202,368         - 58,345      -4.6	
  December             1,260,713         -308,601     -19.7

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ozone2002
Supreme

27-Feb-2012 14:55

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Here's some FA data to support the increase in palm oil consumption

UPDATE 1-Malaysia's Feb 1-25 palm oil exports up 4.5 pct-SGS

Reuters – 9 minutes ago

            

SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Exports of Malaysian
palm oil products for Feb. 1-25 gained 4.5 percent to 989,868
tonnes compared with 947,401 tonnes shipped during Jan. 1-25,
cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday. 	
    Breakdown of SGS palm export figures for Feb. 1-25 compared
to a month ago (in tonnes):   	
                                      PALM PRODUCTS 	
                                Feb. 1-25         Jan. 1-25     
    	
   Crude palm oil                 128,871            74,640	
   RBD palm oil                    99,633            81,998     
      	
   RBD palm olein                 517,260           520,743   	
   RBD palm stearin                76,610           105,082     
    	
   Crude palm kernel oil            6,900             5,000     	
   Processed palm kernel oil       43,735            39,360     	
   Oleochemicals                   42,813            37,774     
     	
     	
                                         TOP PALM MARKETS  	
                                Feb. 1-25          Jan. 1-25	
   European Union                 122,386            110,304	
   China                          261,420            198,866    
       	
   Pakistan                        22,500             65,929    
      	
   United States                   87,024             76,830	
   India                          105,625             73,000    	
     	
                               TOTAL PALM EXPORTS, BY MONTH  	
  Month                  Total          Net Change    m/m %	
  January              1,293,078         -193,496     -13.0	
  December             1,486,574          -50,982      -3.3	
  November             1,537,556         -146,521      -8.7	
  October              1,684,077          179,075      11.9	
  September            1,505,002         -115,406      -7.1
  August               1,620,408           -8,280      -0.5	
  July                 1,628,688          194,224      13.5 	
  June                 1,434,464           80,569       6.0	
  May                  1,353,895           32,827       2.5	
  April                1,321,068          203,486      18.2	
  March                1,117,582           24,962       2.3 	
  February             1,092,620         -109,748      -9.1	
  January              1,202,368         - 58,345      -4.6	
  December             1,260,713         -308,601     -19.7

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Tropical
Senior

27-Feb-2012 14:21

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Look at First Resources....going up now at 1.84. Result good. Wonder how well can Gar do after result release today.

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