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Sembmarine
tglim74
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11-May-2012 14:18     
 
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Exit at 4.53, better cut loss and stay clear.
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GuavaXF30
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11-May-2012 13:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Alamak. Now Oil-riggers turn to kenna whack. Lucky not as bad as commodity companies though. Poor Wilmar....

ozone2002      ( Date: 11-May-2012 12:00) Posted:



price weakening ..now 4.56

time to scoop up some..

dyodd gd luck!
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ozone2002
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11-May-2012 12:00     
 
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price weakening ..now 4.56

time to scoop up some..

dyodd gd luck!
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krisluke
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10-May-2012 21:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SMM: weak 1Q12 results, below expectations. Net profit was $113m, -25% yoy. This was largely due to the surprisingly weak 12.8% Operating margin (OPM) in 1Q12 vs 20% in 1Q11, due to timing, value and initial lower margin from new design rigs. While a decline in margins was generally anticipated by the Street due to the lower priced contracts secured in FY10/11, the magnitude of decline was more than expected. Nevertheless, mgt sticks to its guidance of 15% FY12e OPM. YTD contract wins are $3b, with net order book of $7.4b and visibility until 2Q15. Mgt still seeing strong all-round new order enquiries, esp for deepwater rigs. Aims at $5-6b ex-Petrobras orders. On Petrobras, it notes that negotiations are at an advanced stage, with the finer details yet to be ironed out. Seeing some downward revision in TP by the Street, though ratings remain bullish. BOA-ML keeps at Buy with TP $6.01 from $6.15. Deutsche keeps at Buy, but lowers TP to $5.55 from $5.80. UOBK keeps at Buy, lowers TP to $5.80 from $6.10.
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sgnewbie
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10-May-2012 15:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		http://sgxreports.blogspot.com/2012/05/sembcorp-marine_10.html
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GuavaXF30
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10-May-2012 14:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Sorry, perhaps I used wrong term. If long is trading buy than I bought too. Thought they were the same.

rotijai      ( Date: 10-May-2012 12:04) Posted:



i don wanna encourage ppl to long or short..

depends on how u look at it..

i didnt long.. i bought.. LOL

anyway i think the sell down might continue.. not looking good for longs

sure i am not tat worry..

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:57) Posted:



Opps, sorry did not see Rotijai's earlier posting. Looks like you longed too.

Let's not worry then and shut comp down and go play golf.... Look at it again next week
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Sgshares
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10-May-2012 13:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		can look for long / short cover ard $4.50
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rotijai
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10-May-2012 12:04     
 
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i don wanna encourage ppl to long or short..

depends on how u look at it..

i didnt long.. i bought.. LOL

anyway i think the sell down might continue.. not looking good for longs

sure i am not tat worry..

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:57) Posted:



Opps, sorry did not see Rotijai's earlier posting. Looks like you longed too.

Let's not worry then and shut comp down and go play golf.... Look at it again next week.

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:45) Posted:



Sure there is no such thing as 100%. Obviously you have shorted this and I have longed.

But for me, everything is about how  I feel is correct valuation. I bought with my own cash. I don't have to rely on market sentiments.

For short-traders, time is obviously extremely important. For all I know, you may very well be a winner here. But I am prepared to hold. With blue chips, you can't go round with this strategy.

Gd luck.   
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GuavaXF30
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10-May-2012 11:57     
 
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Opps, sorry did not see Rotijai's earlier posting. Looks like you longed too.

Let's not worry then and shut comp down and go play golf.... Look at it again next week.

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:45) Posted:



Sure there is no such thing as 100%. Obviously you have shorted this and I have longed.

But for me, everything is about how  I feel is correct valuation. I bought with my own cash. I don't have to rely on market sentiments.

For short-traders, time is obviously extremely important. For all I know, you may very well be a winner here. But I am prepared to hold. With blue chips, you can't go round with this strategy.

Gd luck.   

rotijai      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:03) Posted:



not out of the woods yet.. there's no need to say right or wrong :
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GuavaXF30
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10-May-2012 11:45     
 
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Sure there is no such thing as 100%. Obviously you have shorted this and I have longed.

But for me, everything is about how  I feel is correct valuation. I bought with my own cash. I don't have to rely on market sentiments.

For short-traders, time is obviously extremely important. For all I know, you may very well be a winner here. But I am prepared to hold. With blue chips, you can't go round with this strategy.

Gd luck.   

rotijai      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:03) Posted:



not out of the woods yet.. there's no need to say right or wrong :)

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:01) Posted:



Congrats to those who bought in this morning. Good sense is now prevailing.

Thanks Ozone for helping to point the fundamentals of Semb Marine out.

I was not wrong early yesterday when I said it may fall further, but I was  also not wrong to say that 4.8 was okay value. It's all about timing.

But admittedly, could have seen better profit if I had waited for the selling this morning to take place before committing. Hey, can't win all the time, right


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rotijai
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10-May-2012 11:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		if bottom not bottom enough just keep in fridge.. luckily my fridge is empty recently.. got space for it :D

ozone2002      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:38) Posted:



can't get at the lowest or bottom..

but u know u are getting it near bottom that's good enough..

don't have to be so kiasu la.. :)

no problem..sometimes market players get caught up by the excitement or fear that

they throw out fundamentals altogether..

i'm just here to keep everyone cool headed so they can think clearly :)

gd luck dyodd.. :)
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ozone2002
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10-May-2012 11:38     
 
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can't get at the lowest or bottom..

but u know u are getting it near bottom that's good enough..

don't have to be so kiasu la.. :)

no problem..sometimes market players get caught up by the excitement or fear that

they throw out fundamentals altogether..

i'm just here to keep everyone cool headed so they can think clearly :)

gd luck dyodd.. :)
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rotijai
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10-May-2012 11:03     
 
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not out of the woods yet.. there's no need to say right or wrong :)

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 10-May-2012 11:01) Posted:



Congrats to those who bought in this morning. Good sense is now prevailing.

Thanks Ozone for helping to point the fundamentals of Semb Marine out.

I was not wrong early yesterday when I said it may fall further, but I was  also not wrong to say that 4.8 was okay value. It's all about timing.

But admittedly, could have seen better profit if I had waited for the selling this morning to take place before committing. Hey, can't win all the time, right ?

ozone2002      ( Date: 10-May-2012 10:32) Posted:

Sembcorp Marine

Still on Track

Lower due to timing issues.

profit dipped by 26% YoY and 37% QoQ to SGD113.1m, coming in

lower than our expectations. However, the variance was mainly due to

timing of revenue recognition and lower initial margins from new design

jack-up rigs, which does not represent underperformance. We are

keeping our full-year forecasts largely intact and expect stronger

quarters ahead. Maintain BUY and target price of SGD6.20.Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) 1Q12 net

Normalising margins.

this quarter. Other than the normalisation of margins as high-value

contracts are depleted, the other factor was the initial lower margins for

new design rigs. As the year progresses, Management expects margins

to improve with revenue recognition from more rig units. SMM believes

that overall operating margins should come in at about 15% for the

year, which is consistent with our forecast.Operating margins fell by 3.2ppts YoY to 12.8%

Strong orderbook.

stretching up till 2Q15. SMM has secured about SGD3.0b of new

contacts YTD and we are forecasting a total of SGD11.5b in new

contract wins for FY12. SMM is still in negotiations with regard to the

terms of Petrobras-related contracts which we estimate to be worth

SGD5.0b. Nevertheless, we believe it is a matter of time before SMM

secures the contracts.Net orderbook stood at SGD7.4b with deliveries

Optimistic outlook ahead.

outlook and order guidance. Sturdy market fundamentals in the offshore

sector have kept enquiry pipelines at a healthy level and potential

orders are expected to come from across all sectors. This has

reinforced our confidence in our order win assumptions. There also

appears to be no problems with banks extending financing to SMM’s

customers.We sense strong optimism in SMM’s

Remain positive, order wins to drive share price.

positive on SMM and expect order win momentum to be the key

catalyst to drive share price higher. Our target price is maintained at

SGD6.20 based on our SOTP-based valuation. Maintain BUY.We remain

Sembcorp Marine – Summary Earnings Table

FYE Dec (SGD m) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F

Revenue 4,554.9 3,960.2 4,730.7 5,406.5 7,483.5

EBITDA 1,025.8 823.4 841.2 957.7 1,233.0

Recurring Net Profit 860.3 751.9 693.6 758.3 971.8

Recurring Basic EPS (SGD cts) 41.8 36.6 33.7 36.9 47.3

EPS Growth (%) 22.9 (12.6) (7.7) 9.3 28.2

DPS (SGD cts) 36.0 25.0 23.0 23.0 23.0

PER (x) 11.4 13.1 14.2 13.0 10.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 10.9 10.9 9.9 7.6

Div Yield (%) 7.5 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8

P/BV(x) 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9

Net debt/(cash) (SGD m) (2,907) (1,955) (1,610) (1,384) (2,414)

ROE (%) 38.4 30.0 27.7 27.7 31.0

ROA (%) 17.3 14.6 12.9 12.6 13.3

Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) 686.2 751.0 811.8

Source: Company, Maybank KE estimates
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GuavaXF30
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10-May-2012 11:01     
 
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Congrats to those who bought in this morning. Good sense is now prevailing.

Thanks Ozone for helping to point the fundamentals of Semb Marine out.

I was not wrong early yesterday when I said it may fall further, but I was  also not wrong to say that 4.8 was okay value. It's all about timing.

But admittedly, could have seen better profit if I had waited for the selling this morning to take place before committing. Hey, can't win all the time, right ?

ozone2002      ( Date: 10-May-2012 10:32) Posted:

Sembcorp Marine

Still on Track

Lower due to timing issues.

profit dipped by 26% YoY and 37% QoQ to SGD113.1m, coming in

lower than our expectations. However, the variance was mainly due to

timing of revenue recognition and lower initial margins from new design

jack-up rigs, which does not represent underperformance. We are

keeping our full-year forecasts largely intact and expect stronger

quarters ahead. Maintain BUY and target price of SGD6.20.Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) 1Q12 net

Normalising margins.

this quarter. Other than the normalisation of margins as high-value

contracts are depleted, the other factor was the initial lower margins for

new design rigs. As the year progresses, Management expects margins

to improve with revenue recognition from more rig units. SMM believes

that overall operating margins should come in at about 15% for the

year, which is consistent with our forecast.Operating margins fell by 3.2ppts YoY to 12.8%

Strong orderbook.

stretching up till 2Q15. SMM has secured about SGD3.0b of new

contacts YTD and we are forecasting a total of SGD11.5b in new

contract wins for FY12. SMM is still in negotiations with regard to the

terms of Petrobras-related contracts which we estimate to be worth

SGD5.0b. Nevertheless, we believe it is a matter of time before SMM

secures the contracts.Net orderbook stood at SGD7.4b with deliveries

Optimistic outlook ahead.

outlook and order guidance. Sturdy market fundamentals in the offshore

sector have kept enquiry pipelines at a healthy level and potential

orders are expected to come from across all sectors. This has

reinforced our confidence in our order win assumptions. There also

appears to be no problems with banks extending financing to SMM’s

customers.We sense strong optimism in SMM’s

Remain positive, order wins to drive share price.

positive on SMM and expect order win momentum to be the key

catalyst to drive share price higher. Our target price is maintained at

SGD6.20 based on our SOTP-based valuation. Maintain BUY.We remain

Sembcorp Marine – Summary Earnings Table

FYE Dec (SGD m) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F

Revenue 4,554.9 3,960.2 4,730.7 5,406.5 7,483.5

EBITDA 1,025.8 823.4 841.2 957.7 1,233.0

Recurring Net Profit 860.3 751.9 693.6 758.3 971.8

Recurring Basic EPS (SGD cts) 41.8 36.6 33.7 36.9 47.3

EPS Growth (%) 22.9 (12.6) (7.7) 9.3 28.2

DPS (SGD cts) 36.0 25.0 23.0 23.0 23.0

PER (x) 11.4 13.1 14.2 13.0 10.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 10.9 10.9 9.9 7.6

Div Yield (%) 7.5 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8

P/BV(x) 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9

Net debt/(cash) (SGD m) (2,907) (1,955) (1,610) (1,384) (2,414)

ROE (%) 38.4 30.0 27.7 27.7 31.0

ROA (%) 17.3 14.6 12.9 12.6 13.3

Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) 686.2 751.0 811.8

Source: Company, Maybank KE estimates
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rotijai
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10-May-2012 10:37     
 
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master ozone.. i dont think it's necessary to post this...

$6? may be.. if sti hits 3200-3300 again

ozone2002      ( Date: 10-May-2012 10:32) Posted:

Sembcorp Marine

Still on Track

Lower due to timing issues.

profit dipped by 26% YoY and 37% QoQ to SGD113.1m, coming in

lower than our expectations. However, the variance was mainly due to

timing of revenue recognition and lower initial margins from new design

jack-up rigs, which does not represent underperformance. We are

keeping our full-year forecasts largely intact and expect stronger

quarters ahead. Maintain BUY and target price of SGD6.20.Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) 1Q12 net

Normalising margins.

this quarter. Other than the normalisation of margins as high-value

contracts are depleted, the other factor was the initial lower margins for

new design rigs. As the year progresses, Management expects margins

to improve with revenue recognition from more rig units. SMM believes

that overall operating margins should come in at about 15% for the

year, which is consistent with our forecast.Operating margins fell by 3.2ppts YoY to 12.8%

Strong orderbook.

stretching up till 2Q15. SMM has secured about SGD3.0b of new

contacts YTD and we are forecasting a total of SGD11.5b in new

contract wins for FY12. SMM is still in negotiations with regard to the

terms of Petrobras-related contracts which we estimate to be worth

SGD5.0b. Nevertheless, we believe it is a matter of time before SMM

secures the contracts.Net orderbook stood at SGD7.4b with deliveries

Optimistic outlook ahead.

outlook and order guidance. Sturdy market fundamentals in the offshore

sector have kept enquiry pipelines at a healthy level and potential

orders are expected to come from across all sectors. This has

reinforced our confidence in our order win assumptions. There also

appears to be no problems with banks extending financing to SMM’s

customers.We sense strong optimism in SMM’s

Remain positive, order wins to drive share price.

positive on SMM and expect order win momentum to be the key

catalyst to drive share price higher. Our target price is maintained at

SGD6.20 based on our SOTP-based valuation. Maintain BUY.We remain

Sembcorp Marine – Summary Earnings Table

FYE Dec (SGD m) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F

Revenue 4,554.9 3,960.2 4,730.7 5,406.5 7,483.5

EBITDA 1,025.8 823.4 841.2 957.7 1,233.0

Recurring Net Profit 860.3 751.9 693.6 758.3 971.8

Recurring Basic EPS (SGD cts) 41.8 36.6 33.7 36.9 47.3

EPS Growth (%) 22.9 (12.6) (7.7) 9.3 28.2

DPS (SGD cts) 36.0 25.0 23.0 23.0 23.0

PER (x) 11.4 13.1 14.2 13.0 10.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 10.9 10.9 9.9 7.6

Div Yield (%) 7.5 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8

P/BV(x) 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9

Net debt/(cash) (SGD m) (2,907) (1,955) (1,610) (1,384) (2,414)

ROE (%) 38.4 30.0 27.7 27.7 31.0

ROA (%) 17.3 14.6 12.9 12.6 13.3

Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) 686.2 751.0 811.8

Source: Company, Maybank KE estimates
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ozone2002
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10-May-2012 10:32     
 
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Sembcorp Marine

Still on Track

Lower due to timing issues.

profit dipped by 26% YoY and 37% QoQ to SGD113.1m, coming in

lower than our expectations. However, the variance was mainly due to

timing of revenue recognition and lower initial margins from new design

jack-up rigs, which does not represent underperformance. We are

keeping our full-year forecasts largely intact and expect stronger

quarters ahead. Maintain BUY and target price of SGD6.20.Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) 1Q12 net

Normalising margins.

this quarter. Other than the normalisation of margins as high-value

contracts are depleted, the other factor was the initial lower margins for

new design rigs. As the year progresses, Management expects margins

to improve with revenue recognition from more rig units. SMM believes

that overall operating margins should come in at about 15% for the

year, which is consistent with our forecast.Operating margins fell by 3.2ppts YoY to 12.8%

Strong orderbook.

stretching up till 2Q15. SMM has secured about SGD3.0b of new

contacts YTD and we are forecasting a total of SGD11.5b in new

contract wins for FY12. SMM is still in negotiations with regard to the

terms of Petrobras-related contracts which we estimate to be worth

SGD5.0b. Nevertheless, we believe it is a matter of time before SMM

secures the contracts.Net orderbook stood at SGD7.4b with deliveries

Optimistic outlook ahead.

outlook and order guidance. Sturdy market fundamentals in the offshore

sector have kept enquiry pipelines at a healthy level and potential

orders are expected to come from across all sectors. This has

reinforced our confidence in our order win assumptions. There also

appears to be no problems with banks extending financing to SMM’s

customers.We sense strong optimism in SMM’s

Remain positive, order wins to drive share price.

positive on SMM and expect order win momentum to be the key

catalyst to drive share price higher. Our target price is maintained at

SGD6.20 based on our SOTP-based valuation. Maintain BUY.We remain

Sembcorp Marine – Summary Earnings Table

FYE Dec (SGD m) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F

Revenue 4,554.9 3,960.2 4,730.7 5,406.5 7,483.5

EBITDA 1,025.8 823.4 841.2 957.7 1,233.0

Recurring Net Profit 860.3 751.9 693.6 758.3 971.8

Recurring Basic EPS (SGD cts) 41.8 36.6 33.7 36.9 47.3

EPS Growth (%) 22.9 (12.6) (7.7) 9.3 28.2

DPS (SGD cts) 36.0 25.0 23.0 23.0 23.0

PER (x) 11.4 13.1 14.2 13.0 10.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 10.9 10.9 9.9 7.6

Div Yield (%) 7.5 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8

P/BV(x) 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9

Net debt/(cash) (SGD m) (2,907) (1,955) (1,610) (1,384) (2,414)

ROE (%) 38.4 30.0 27.7 27.7 31.0

ROA (%) 17.3 14.6 12.9 12.6 13.3

Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) 686.2 751.0 811.8

Source: Company, Maybank KE estimates

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rotijai
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10-May-2012 10:02     
 
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personally i think > 5 is expensive

4-5 is a " anything can happen range"

< 4 is a good investment for long term

i just bought recently

yiming2000      ( Date: 10-May-2012 00:05) Posted:



You committed suicide here? I bought 10 lots at 5.27 and to get $2000 dividend and quickly dumped it at 5.08. Lost a lttle bit.

What price  did you come in when your hand got itchy? How many lots? Sembcorp Marine not a bad as Biosensors where I committed suicide.  No BB can manipulate price down with Temasek around.  So don't worry too much. Looks like I have to keep my Biosensors in the freezer. 

rotijai      ( Date: 09-May-2012 16:00) Posted:



hand a bit itchy.. decided to take a calculated risk bet..

if wrong, just keep in fridge for months..

*dont follow me, prepared to have my $ stuck in this yard :x
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GuavaXF30
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10-May-2012 09:46     
 
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Still a strong buy. See below latest recommendation. One of many with same views.

 

　



Expecting better in subsequent quarters


1Q12 net profit of S$113m was 18% of our FY12 estimate. Sembcorp Marine (SMM)’s 1Q12 net profit declined 25% YoY to S$113m. While revenue rose 14% YoY to S$942m, operating margin fell to 12.8% (1Q11: 20%) as most of the rig projects recognised in 1Q12 were projects secured during the bottom of the cycle in 4Q10 where prices were more competitive. Earnings recognition can be lumpy and we expect to see better performance in the subsequent quarters when the higher priced orders are executed. We adjust TP lower to S$5.80 (old: S$6.00) to reflect the 20S¢ dividend to be paid (ex-date 25 Apr 12). Maintain BUY.


ozone2002      ( Date: 10-May-2012 09:13) Posted:



went as low as 4.53

managed to scoop up some..to average down..

buying up to 10 lots..i don't buy at one shot.. so in a way i average down..

very good value with the fat order books it has..

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002      ( Date: 09-May-2012 13:35) Posted:



well if sembmar drops further it's an opportunity to buy more at a cheaper price..

fundamentals of the company is intact..they don't change within a day..

only it's price of the stock reflects the sentiment of the market..

and it's up to u to capitalize on the emotions of the market players...

gd luck dyodd.. :)
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ozone2002
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10-May-2012 09:13     
 
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went as low as 4.53

managed to scoop up some..to average down..

buying up to 10 lots..i don't buy at one shot.. so in a way i average down..

very good value with the fat order books it has..

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002      ( Date: 09-May-2012 13:35) Posted:



well if sembmar drops further it's an opportunity to buy more at a cheaper price..

fundamentals of the company is intact..they don't change within a day..

only it's price of the stock reflects the sentiment of the market..

and it's up to u to capitalize on the emotions of the market players...

gd luck dyodd.. :)
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sgnewbie
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10-May-2012 09:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		http://sgxreports.blogspot.com/2012/05/sembcorp-marine_09.html
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