Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors | Post Reply |
Is Biosensors a good buy?
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:idea:
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12-Jan-2008 13:43
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78xxxx, I read your postings & find them closely resembling an ex-CNA forumers'. However, the guy was booted by Admin for some bad deeds though. dont "HAI SEE REN" again.
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investor
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12-Jan-2008 13:08
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Forgot to add my usual clause - NOT a call to BUY/SELL or HOLD. |
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investor
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12-Jan-2008 13:05
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With the recent drop in all the indexes, plus the fact that BIG has gone up from the recent low of 0.725 on 24th Dec 2007 to last night's closing price of 0.94, it is inevitable that there will be a lot of emotional responses in where the price will be going from here - ie a lot of bullish and bearish calls - depending on which camp you are in. Maybe all investors should re-examine all facts and assumptions about this counter, and make your analysis from there. Here goes - first the facts : 1) BIG has bought over JW Medical (or about to), a company that makes US$14.8m (US$11.1 for 9 mths, annualised over 12 mths) for US$210m (base on no of Biosensors's shares issued at 1.08), for a PE ratio of 14 times. 2) It is a fact that Shandong Weigao is trading at a PE of 53 times for 2007, and projected PE of 43 for FY2008 (UOBKH report dted 10 Jan 2008). 3) It is a fact that Shandong Weigao is willing to accept ONLY shares in BIG in exchange for their JW Medical that is highly profitable, and can probably list in HK for PE of 20-30 times. (AN Assumption) 4) It is a fact that BIG CEO states that they expects the CE approval in late Jan 2008. 5) It is a fact that BIG owns intellectual property pertaining to their Biolimus drug, and usage of 'limus drug' on a biodegradable polyer. 6) It is a fact that their clinical trials shows excellent results, including their 3 licensees, Terumo, Xtent, Devax. 7) It is a fact that their CTO sold his own shares yesterday, and also in Dec 2005. (looks like he is selling once a yr - an assumption) 8) It is a fact that BIG is loss making right now, due to hugh clinical trials. 9) It is a fact that BIG raised US$45m from 3 venture funds last yr in the form of convertible bonds issued. (conversion price abt 0.93 or so, I think) 10) It is a fact that Conors Medsystem was taken over by J & J at US$1.4 billion. If we value BIG at this price, it should be worth S$1.90 per share, and that Conors is a loss making company. NOW for the assumptions : 1) That BIG's shares will drop in the next few days/weeks - nobody knows (Maybe u need to estimate the probability of such an event), OR that BIG share price will go up the next few days or when they get the CE Mark. 2) That BIG will be making a lot of profits going forward - nobody knows (Maybe u need to estimate the probability of such an event) 3) UBS Warburg is making an assumption that BIG will make US$4m for yr ending mar 2009, and US$24m for yr ending mar 2010. $) It is an assumption that BIG may be taken over, just because Conors is taken over. (Gauge the probability of such an event) |
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bengster68
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12-Jan-2008 12:25
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"everyone here was so upset about my call to sell, this counter dun worth even 90 cents, make losses every year, no dividend pay out, high risk counter" You have been a strong bull of BanJoo and calling people to buy. Ask yourself is Banjoo also making losses every year and no dividend payout? I haven't looked at BanJoo's financials but my guess is they are negative net worth. Even if you are good at reading financials, you are too dumb to realise BIG's key assets are intangibles like patents. You have been consistently wrong on BIG's price movement from last month's low of 70cts up to recent high of $1.02. Even a dead clock is right 2 times a day. I would also like to share you forumers how come BIG can seal the JW China deal recently. It is because of BIG's patent. When you go to the negotiating table, patents are your best weapon. If you have this weapon, you an advantage. BIG is holding "any limus drug on biodegredable polymer" patent. JW is actually breaching BIG's patent because EXCEL DES uses Sirolimus drug on a biodegredable polymer. When Medtronic (a rival DES player) came into the picture via MOU to acquire a strategic sake of 15% in WeiGao, i know problem will start liao. BIG threatened to sue JW to stop EXCEL's sales or make JW pay very heavy lump sum settlement plus huge royalty of sales to BIG for patent breach. It is because of BIG's patent that BIG can secure the prized asset JWMS. An invisible asset but a very deadly weapon at negotiation table. BIG did the right thing and knows know to extract something out from their patents. I must say this is a very good corporate move. My "Godfather" is an underworld triad boss . He always tell me at triad negotiations table, he will be very agressive initially to press down his opponents (rival triads) because his gang is stronger and has better "reasons" than the rivals in the event of a dispute. After the initial show of power, he will also slowly back-down his demands and come to a settlement which is more advantages to his gang. The worst thing is "liang bai ju sang" via a gang war. I think BIG is using the same tactics. |
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Pension
Elite |
12-Jan-2008 10:55
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ha ha ha ha, someone exit quietly and now talk about trigger point bla bla bla, it is too late?? if u have confident and so positive that the c/e mark approval(less than 3 weeks) will uptrend this counter, why exit?? should hold on to it to show those induced ur believe. i expect him to talk like a bull. why talk about trigger point now and not on wednesday, thursday or friday early morning 9.00am. is it too late when those induced got stuck and burn badly. come morning, worst, dun know how many newbie gonna get burn very badly. everyone here was so upset about my call to sell, this counter dun worth even 90 cents, make losses every year, no dividend pay out, high risk counter, advise u to check with ur broker bla bla bla. i am here to tell u nothing but the truth and it is ur choice to believe in me or in them. if u believe in them, u should not curse and swear, juz be careful next time round. |
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Pension
Elite |
12-Jan-2008 10:33
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NASDAQ 2439.94 -48.58 -1.95% | DJIA 12606.3 -246.79 -1.92% | S&P 1401.02 -19.31 -1.36% pls read the above, monday u wan to buy or sell or ??? |
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cwwan1
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12-Jan-2008 09:50
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yesterday, a lot of the counters are in red, anyone bought in the morning will see red in the afternoon. Mkt volatity is here to stay for this year. If you are trader, you have to follow the mkt sentiment., BIO investor in this forum has experienced the roller coaster of this counter. I remember i bought at $1.20 in the morning last year and in one day it drop to $.70 cents. If u are newbies, please do your research and prepare for long term and don't come and scold people. I have done mine and confident in this counter. | ||||||||||
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cashiertan
Elite |
12-Jan-2008 03:34
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Dear Bengster and other important members of this forum, My Sell Limit order Triggered today at 95c for my remaining counters. Total profit of 22c for a short trade. will be looking to enter again when opportunity comes. I'ill be back! Thanks again to someone for helping me to add lots everytime he say sell. happy for him that finally his sell prediction is correct. like i mentioned in earlier thread, his correct prediction is 1 out of 3 based on his other postings in this forums, just do a search. At last his 3rd sell prediction for this counter finally got it correct. lol |
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bengster68
Master |
12-Jan-2008 02:21
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I don't think there is a need to be alarmed when the CTO sell a small part of his shareholdings. When the share price is high and an insider sell, he is most likely cashing out for his personal reasons. To pay for his income tax (this guy is an ang moh and we know ang moh countries have very high personal tax, including capital gain tax in equities), to buy a house, to send 2 of his kids to college in Europe or his kid got married and he bought a house as wedding gift for his kid, etc. I believe the CTO is rich in equity holdings but not very cash rich. When he need money to buy big ticket items, what else do you expect him to do other than sell some of his shares? In fact, the CEO ever sold BIG's shares in open market to settle his huge tax laibility in USA (he got the green card) of over US$20m couple of years back at around $1 a share. The CEO was selling a small portion of his shares for personal tax reasons but he rejected JNJ's $1.70 a share offer to buy up all his shareholdings. However, if a company's share price is going down rapidly, at historical low and the insider is continuous selling blocks of shares, under such circumstances, i will view it as something bad is about to happen to the company and may be announced soon. Just my opinion. |
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bengster68
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12-Jan-2008 02:02
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Not an inducement to buy. Buy at your own risk. Discount period is over. Never chase a soaring stock. There could be short term volatility. Did you really heed any of my advice??? Obviously you didn't. I even warned forumers not to listen too much to UBS, OCBC and CS's TP as the BBs could be pumping and selling. You are a follower of pension in Banjoo shares. I guess both of you are out to "Sian Hai" me. Don't need to use cheap tricks and restorting shameless tactics to slander me. I said before Part 1 and Part 2 to unlock BIG's hidden value. Part 1 is out already and price chiong over 10%. Did i bullshi# to you? I said before my analysis is for long term holders. You bought it for 1 day only price drop you come and KBKB for what? You belong to the wrong category of investor my analysis is actually meant for. Pension, you have been urging people to sell and many that headed your advice missed a large part of the chiong. Who is the one that hai see ren? You are really shameless |
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Pension
Elite |
11-Jan-2008 23:51
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a bear is calling. http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=4977&searchString= |
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Pension
Elite |
11-Jan-2008 23:46
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gulong got bear or bull ? lol | ||||||||||
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lausk22
Veteran |
11-Jan-2008 23:29
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sounds like a quotation from kungfu writer, gu long - your best friend is your worst enemy | ||||||||||
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Pension
Elite |
11-Jan-2008 23:18
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if u are a bear, u talk and behave like a bear if u are a bull, u talk and behave like a bull if u half bear / half bull, juz keep quiet and nobody blame u for not talking. share market is a war market, either u kill your enemy or ur enemy kill you. remember this by hard. your good friend is infact ur enemy, he or she is dangerous, he or she may sound polite and dipolmatic and together both of u may agreed and agreed and agreed until he or she exit from the market without u knowing, when u come to know, it is too late. when u curse on him or her, he or she disppear and nowhere to be found because this is a forum. |
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exodus
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11-Jan-2008 22:42
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i like pensionalterego's link. thanks bro. |
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exodus
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11-Jan-2008 22:41
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i agree with okiedokie. freedom of speech needs responsibilities. otherwise we will be having another set of problems. unfortunately, we have some of the ugliest people here and they are not that inconspicuous. worse, they like to put good folks in an invidious light. | ||||||||||
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exodus
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11-Jan-2008 22:30
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i referred to the 2007 annual report. |
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OkieDokie
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11-Jan-2008 22:15
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I am vested in Bios for more than a year and is still holding the first batch I bought @ $1.23. Recent developments taking place in Bios have been rather exciting for both investors and company but sad to say that this forum, once upon a time & not so long ago, noted for its weatlh of information through positive exhange of views, has turned into a diseased ground plagued by irresponsible postings. I appeal to all concerned to bring back the glory days. Remember : We can AGREE to DISAGREE. But freedom of speech (postings) is only a priviledge for RESPONSIBLE people who speaks with INTEGRITY. |
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PensionAlterEgo
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11-Jan-2008 22:14
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Pension, Shhhh....don't tell them our FUD tactics... http://fivecentstencents.blogspot.com/2007/08/fear-uncertainty-and-doubt-in-stock.html From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaFear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) is a tactic of rhetoric. FUD is generally a strategic attempt to influence public perception by disseminating negative (and vague) information. |
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Pension
Elite |
11-Jan-2008 21:56
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sub holder, if they wish to sell, they should sell few weeks after obtaining the ce mark and not his time, the whole market confident is shaken and dun know how many ppl will get heart attack next week. | ||||||||||
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