| Latest Forum Topics / Ezra Last:0.011 -- |
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Ezra
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frosin
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29-Oct-2009 10:38
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This does looks like panick selling with no strength downwards, relying purely on stock market movement. |
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frosin
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29-Oct-2009 10:21
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Thanks for your sharing. I am looking for worthy counters as well. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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musicwhiz5
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29-Oct-2009 09:23
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Hi, As mentioned on my blog on my reasons for divestment, I am not comfortable with the fundamental characteristics of the Company; including their Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet. I do not really bother about UBS as they are simply acting on behalf of their clients, and thus we do not know who is buying/selling and their reasons for doing so. Thus, I will not consider purchasing Ezra again. Anyhow, I already have plans to deploy my funds from Ezra into other worthwhile companies. Regards. |
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frosin
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29-Oct-2009 09:20
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Net asset value of US81.18 cents stands at S$1.14. Earning per share of US11.7 cents equals S16.4 cents. This is in a difficult year that is improving quarter on quarter. Previous FY EPS was US30.23 cents or S42.3 cents. At yesterday close of $1.93, the price to NAV is at 1.7x and P/E is at 11.7x. At today's low of $1.85, Price to NAV is 1.6x and P/E is at 11.3x. These prices are significantly lower than what is expected. Typical safe company P/E is at 12x($1.97) and growing company are more than 14x($2.30). Is this not value/potential to enter? |
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frosin
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29-Oct-2009 08:58
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Dear Music, What is the price that you would buy back into Ezra? It would seem that the stock is now at a favorable price. The current climate is hazy but this is where the opportunity is also. Stocks are falling because people sell and not enough buy. The problem is where to re-enter for the longer term good. UBS had recently increased their stake in the company. Is there really overvalue in the company stock price for the longer run? Price to book is 1.71. P/E down significantly. |
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musicwhiz5
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24-Oct-2009 21:58
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Hi tonylim, Thanks for your comments. I guess the way I feel about Ezra is that the gains I made were a result of good sentiment in the counter which pushed it to its current market price level, and not as a result of applying proper value investing principles. It's the principle of the matter which I am disappointed about, rather than focusing on the gains. You may think I am rather strict with myself over this, but I feel that's the way to learn and improve. No point getting too excited or complacent about the 222% gains when it may have been due to pure luck rather than skill (as pointed out by another astute forumer from another forum - linked from my blog entry). I wish you well in investing in Ezra; personally I feel too much upside has been factored in and there is too much optimism despite the Group having a dangerously over-leveraged Balance Sheet and poor cash flows, but that's just my personal opinions. If you follow my portfolio review every month, you would notice that I had divested Pacific Andes quite some time back (during the announcement of their 1:1 rights issue). As for Tat Hong, I am cautiously wary of their recent RCPS issue to AIF Capital and their plans to grow in the China market for Tower Cranes. I will be watching their Balance Sheet and Cash Flows carefully. Some veteran value investors have expressed concern over the RCPS issue and I do take their comments seriously; though I personally also feel there may be merit in inviting them in as strategic investors. I guess only time will tell. Meanwhile, their gearing is around 0.52 (before RCPS) and will drop upon receipt of the S$63 million (after fees). As for Boustead, I do not expect an 8th consecutive record breaking performance. All I want now is good yield from the Company as they are cash flow +ve and in a good net cash position. I am counting on the good Management to grow the company slowly but surely. Perhaps you can wait for mid-Nov 2009 when Tat Hong and Boustead will release their 1H FY 2010 results for better clarity. Regards. |
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tonylim
Master |
24-Oct-2009 15:55
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Dear MusicWhizz, Your detailed analysis in your blog amazed me. I am surprised that you regret investing in EZRA when your return is 222% over 4 years. I too made some profit with 150% return, and still keeping 5 lots for it to reach $2.50 I am quite confident with this counter ,which has enriched me quite a bit, albeit your rationale of divesting. What is your long term view of Boustead, Tat Hong and Pac Andes that you have invested too?
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bennykusman
Veteran |
24-Oct-2009 01:16
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ezra shows no strength? i let go ald... seems the price still cant break 2.04... news bonds with 5x oversubscribed also cant push the share price up...
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frosin
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23-Oct-2009 10:57
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travelling south is easier today
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frosin
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23-Oct-2009 09:24
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strong resistance going north due to the buying crowd at 2.03 - 2.05 yday. looks like it will be difficult. accumulating some for longer term. =) i would divest if the price would go further down for a better bargain. but i dont think it can go down very much. what are your expectations? |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
23-Oct-2009 09:08
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heard ezra delivered their FPSO successfully..good news! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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musicwhiz5
Senior |
23-Oct-2009 00:53
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Dear all, I have fully divested Ezra and my reasons, rationale as well as an update of recent events relating to the Company have been posted on my blog at http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com. Kindly feel free to leave comments and constructive criticism. Thanks ! :D | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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iPunter
Supreme |
22-Oct-2009 23:44
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Now you know the importance of timing... hehehe...  ___________________________________ Multiple Timeframe Technical Analysis |
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tonylim
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22-Oct-2009 20:33
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Let go yesterday at $2.01 (wrong timing) but still keeping 5 lots. Do not off load EZRA - still has potential to move up.
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frosin
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22-Oct-2009 19:11
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ya, no one believes in FA. but it will be interesting nonetheless to watch this stock | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Livermore
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22-Oct-2009 19:05
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These target prices are meaningless
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frosin
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22-Oct-2009 18:56
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True, it will take time. it might be slow but the fundamental for value add is there. =) OCBC fair value $2.27 JPM target $2.40 DB target $2.70 DMG target $2.39 |
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bennykusman
Veteran |
22-Oct-2009 17:07
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seems to be false breakout yesterday ? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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frosin
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22-Oct-2009 17:07
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OCBC Investment on 22 Oct 09 Raising US$100m via convertible bonds sale while EOC unit secures largest ever contract Raising US$100m via convertible bonds. Ezra Holdings Ltd (Ezra) announced it will issue US$100m worth of 4% convertible bonds that will mature in Nov 2014. The initial conversion price, which is subject to adjustments, is S$2.50/share. The group intends to allocate 50-100% of the proceeds to fund new business ventures and other acquisitions, and the rest for capital expenditure and/or vessel acquisitions. EOC won its largest ever contract. In a separate note, Ezra announced that its construction and production arm, EOC Ltd (EOC), has secured its largest-ever contract from Premier Oil to operate a new Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO) for Vietnam's Chim Sao oil project. The contract is worth up to about US$527m for six years with a US$477m option to extend for another six years. We understand that EOC will set up a JV with a Vietnamese partner to operate the FPSO that will perform oil and natural gas liquids processing, and water injection in the field. Production will start in 2Q11 and more details will be released subsequently. Positive impact on the whole. The FPSO is currently structured to be owned by four entities in varying proportions, which is desirable as it does not add strain on EOC's balance sheet. If we were to assume a 50:50 JV between EOC and its Vietnamese operating partner, a back-of-the-envelope calculation of earnings contribution to Ezra yields ~US$5.4m per year for the first six years, translating to about 7.7% of FY09's earnings. Though this percentage is likely to decrease from FY11 as Ezra's subsea segment boosts total revenue, this contract still provides recurrent income nonetheless. Maintain BUY. The group has positioned itself well in the recent downturn and we are optimistic of its ability to capitalize on opportunities that are emerging, as seen by the group's recent acquisition of a shipset from the Ice Maiden project at distressed levels. Meanwhile, the EOC contract announcement is an endorsement of EOC's operating capabilities; we also expect Ezra to participate in the offshore mooring and installation, as well as fabrication of facilities in the project. We have tweaked our earnings estimates to take into account EOC's increased contribution to Ezra's earnings, but given that the earliest impact will be felt in 4QFY11 (assuming no delays), and the fact that our valuation is based on FY10F earnings, we are keeping our fair value estimate at S$2.27. Maintain BUY. |
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frosin
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22-Oct-2009 17:01
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the problem with convertible is that you don't know when they use it. but the exercise price is $2.5 for this issue. so if the investors are willing to subscribe at that price, the current stock price is really undervalued. hold for the break to $2.5. not possible for the converted share to sell us down before that. |
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