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cyjjerry85
Elite |
09-Aug-2007 23:57
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u think the current credit woes are just as it is? a worse news may be ahead...because there may be FURTHER tightening of credit conditions given a constant continued fear of subprime mortage problem...this will hurt share buybacks |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
09-Aug-2007 23:27
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guys...these ills and concerns that have been circulating us these few weeks isn't gonna be over that easily or soon... U.S., European Stocks Tumble on Credit Concerns; Banks Retreat Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks followed European markets lower after losses tied to subprime mortgages spread through credit markets, threatening earnings at banks and brokerages. ``It looks hideous out there,'' said John Wilson, co- director of equity strategy at Morgan Keegan & Co., which oversees $20 billion in Memphis, Tennessee. ``The fear is obviously not that BNP Paribas has a problem, but that it's much more widespread.'' The overnight rates banks charge each other to lend in dollars jumped to the highest in six years. The so-called dollar London interbank offered rate rose to 5.86 percent today from 5.35 percent, the fastest increase since June 2004. ``Based on history, we believe that today's credit re- pricing is going to be painful for the brokerage firms,'' New York-based analysts including Brad Hintz wrote in a report published today. The U.S. economy will grow less than previously forecast as the rout in subprime borrowing hampers consumer spending, economists said. Growth will slow to an average 2.6 percent annual pace in the second half of the year, 0.2 percentage point less than economists forecast in July, according to a Bloomberg News Survey taken Aug. 1 to Aug. 8. In economic data today, initial jobless claims rose by a more-than-forecast 7,000 to 316,000 in the week ended Aug. 4, the Labor Department said. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 16:11
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toking abt subprime..what u and i see are what analyst..said...say this say that..how serious nobody really know...but to what i think is not so simple..the housing bull not start last year..it is 5 to 6 yrs.. old alreadi..it is a long time..and when all the dust settle..we will really see....come sept or later end this year...that 50 to 100 billion is for now..and in the US alone..i do not know who buy what in the COD...hopefully our bank is not involve..alreadi read that one in Australia are involve 6 yrs of housing boom involve alot of money and fund all over...and when it come home to roast...we will have a red red red christmas...good luck |
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cheongwee
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 15:52
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jerrymaguire....capitaland then was 1.76C..i know cos i sell at 4.5 during IR play..now $8.. 350% over and ppl are still buying..and they say going $20!!!did u buy???but ppl are buying right...so gold 290% from $660 to $2600 is that too high...nobody buy gold..if there are high inflation....we shall see...when u see headline abt gold.. U are making a huge mistake if u do not at least buy some... |
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cheongwee
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 15:44
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we are just small fly or if u like call ourselve guppies here...do u know there are some 9000 over hedge funds alone in the US..i dont know abt Singapore.. What the govt can do if they sell down your market...frankly they cannot do anything other than stand by and see...or they can suspense the trading..change law and control market but that going to hurt invester confident...your country will be down for a long time..no body will want to come back. If govt can control..there wont be market crashes...right..if govt cannot protect us...what should we do...we must buy some insurance to protect ourselves,..just like u buy life insurance,,,for the just in case type of scenario..buy gold..no only good investment,,good solid protection. |
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jerrymaguire
Member |
04-Aug-2007 15:41
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gold/ govt bond and stock market are always oposite. this because the funds will either put their cash in stock market or gold. if war come or stock market crashed, then they will xfer the cash to gold. the suprime is a worries but no enought to bring a recession, as we can see other sectors are showing a good profit, at least no bankrupcy. some analyst said suprime issue can cost 100bil lost, so what if 100bil ? it is not a really very big comparing to usa GDP. the inflation rate can be balanced by interest rate and currency. current usd falled partly due to low interest rate and suprime issue, but this will benefit the exporter in usa ... the whole asia owned very big foreign reserve in usd, the world will not let usd crash. no way the the gld can go up to 2600 unless there is a war, and the currency is not stable. who will buy gold if gold is so expensive till $2600 ? that is always the supply n demand game. for protection in stocks, you can always do hedging, buy put option/warrants of your stock. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 15:35
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go to here for more..Ioushare.. http://www.kitco.com/index.html |
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loushare
Member |
04-Aug-2007 15:33
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Hi cheongwee, how about starting a tread on gold investment. I would like to learn about gold investment. I feel that if the stock market corrects by end of this yr or the latest middle of next yr, gold investment will come in handy. Pls educate us on gold investment in the Gold investment tread. Thanks. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 15:19
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look here..govt is smart..there wont be financial woes...look at the subprime..i think the US govt own the world and esp it citizen an explanation.. But govt like u and me are also ppl...make mistake..costly mistake that make our living standard lower..look at China..M1 supply 20%...economy grow 10 %annual...how can not the px of pork go sky high...even instant noodle also very expensive..imagine that will to happen here...you wake up one day and found your roti prata kosong cost $3!!!...that is high inflation have arrived... If printed dollar tally with economic growth that is fine...but what if the economy stop growing..worse become negative..isnt u are asking for high inflation??ask yourself.. Buy gold for protection and investment...gold $2600 come 2010..my target |
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cheongwee
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 15:08
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Who say gold is lousy investment...let compare the 3...STI,DOW and GOLD.. From 2000 to 2007...dow run fr 7000 to 14000...100%..STI...2500 to 3500..40%...gold.280 to 670...140%!!!so which u think give better return..of course if include inflation your stock will be even lower. Gold is political metal...yes..if u have invest way back..since say 1980 your stock return is better than gold...but that is going to change..starting now.. Gold is no longer function as a hedge against inflation. alone..it is going to be a good investment...those analyst forcast of gold px at 3000 to 4000 is now a possible reality... remember wayback...i got my capitaland at 1.76..and tell my friend it is going $5 my target..they say me nut....now u see it ..am i???current $7 over..and ppl still buying say going to $20..if there is a financial upheavel..gold will rocket..trust me. Imagine now if we ever going to see a px of capitaland at $1.76...what will your favourite mid cap stock like???your SSH,FJben....worse still what will your jade,baker,and all pennies like...0.03C..i leave that to your estimation... The world stock market is worth $48trillion...gold market is just $500 billion...imagine in time of economic calamities...which is becoming very real...just 1% from stock move into gold is goign to see gold rocket to the moon!!! Gold unlike stock will not go to zero like stock..min0.005..as good as broke..put some into gold for good return and insurance against reckless govt..policies,,that wreck the world economy.. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 14:49
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you are making a. |
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mirage
Veteran |
04-Aug-2007 12:17
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QUOTES: BLOOMBERG U.S. Stocks Drop on Credit Woes; Bear Stearns Leads Banks Lower By Eric Martin 
Women hug outside American Home Mortgage headquarters
Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks tumbled on evidence losses in the mortgage market may slow the economy and reduce bank profits, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its worst three-week retreat since 2003. Bear Stearns Cos., the manager of two hedge funds that collapsed last month, helped carry financial shares to their biggest decline in five years after S&P cut the company's credit outlook. Energy shares fell to the lowest since May, led by Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., on speculation weaker job growth and falling oil prices will hurt earnings. The S&P 500 erased its gain for the week, falling 39.14, or 2.7 percent, to 1433.06 in its worst day since Feb. 27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 281.42, or 2.1 percent, to 13,181.91. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 64.73, or 2.5 percent, to 2511.25. The sell-off exacerbated a rout last week that wiped $2.1 trillion in value from global equity markets. Shares declined in Europe, with benchmark indexes dropping in all 18 western European markets except Luxembourg. An index of market volatility in the U.S. rose to a four-year high. ``We're just seeing more and more credit problems,'' said Michael Strauss, who helps manage $40 billion at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut. ``It's going to be difficult for the market to trade with any confidence.'' Almost 12 stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange as all 24 industry groups in the S&P 500 and all 30 members of the Dow fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 4.68 percent. The dollar fell the most in almost a month against the euro, trading within a cent of its record low. Some 2.1 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE, 29 percent more than the three-month average. Stocks opened the day lower after the Labor Department said employers added fewer jobs than economists forecast in July and a private report showed growth in U.S. service industries slowed. Bear Stearns Bear Stearns had its credit-rating outlook cut to negative by S&P on concern declining prices for mortgage-backed securities will decrease earnings. The perceived risk of owning the New York-based company's bonds rose to the highest in at least six years. Stocks fell to their lows of the day after the firm said its return on equity in July may be close to the lowest ever and borrowing costs may slow mergers and acquisitions. 'As Bad as I've Seen It' ``I've been out here for 22 years, and this is as bad as I've seen it in the fixed-income markets,'' Chief Financial Officer Samuel Molinaro said on a conference call with analysts. He compared the crisis to 1998, when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management collapsed and Russia defaulted on its debt. Bear Stearns fell $7.28, or 6.3 percent, to $108.35, the lowest since 2005. The S&P 500 Financials Index fell 3.8 percent, its steepest loss since 2002, and contributed the most to the drop in the overall S&P 500. An index of brokerages and money managers in the S&P 500 has fallen 15 percent since reaching a record on May 30. Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage lender, sank $1.77 to $25. CIT Group Inc., the biggest U.S. independent commercial finance company, lost $1.87 to $36.68. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, dropped $4.67, or 7.7 percent, to $55.78. American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., which traded at more than $10 a week ago, sank 76 cents to 70 cents after it became the second-biggest residential lender to fail this year. The last day for most employees will be today, Chief Executive Officer Michael Strauss told the staff in an e-mailed memo obtained by Bloomberg. Investment bankers cut off credit earlier this week, leaving the lender unable to fund at least $750 million of mortgages. Mary Feder, a company spokeswoman, didn't return a call seeking comment. `One of the Biggest Bubbles' The U.S. subprime-market rout has ``got a long way to go,'' said Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999. ``This was one of the biggest bubbles we've ever had in credit,'' Rogers, chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc., said in an interview from Hong Kong. Credit-market losses stemming from subprime lending are leading to a tightening of funds available for investment, and helping to drive up the cost of borrowing for consumers and companies. Union Investment Asset Management Holding AG, Germany's third-largest mutual fund manager, halted redemptions from a fund after clients withdrew $137 million in the past month. The ABS- Invest Fund, sold to institutional investors across Europe, has about 6 percent of its assets in securities related to subprime mortgage loans. 'Big Logjam of Credit' ``You've got a big logjam of credit that can't clear,'' said Brian Barish, who helps oversee about $10 billion at Cambiar Investors in Denver. ``Add a lot of fear and rumor, and it makes for a tough situation.'' Crude oil fell on concern economic growth will slow, reducing demand for gasoline and other fuels. Futures for September delivery lost $1.38, or 1.8 percent, to $75.48 a barrel and dropped 2 percent in the week. Exxon, the biggest oil company, fell $3.10 to $82.08. Chevron dropped $2.87 to $81.02. Network Appliance Inc. dropped $5.74, or 20 percent, to $22.97. Revenue at the maker of computers that store and distribute data was $684 million to $688 million in the quarter ended July 27, short of the forecast of $745 million to $753 million, the company said today in a statement. Net income was 8 cents to 9 cents a share, instead of 14 cents to 15 cents. GM, Take-Two General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, fell $1.35, or 4 percent, to $32.04. Toyota Motor Corp. reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates as a weaker yen increased revenue from Corolla compacts and Camry sedans sold outside Japan. Toyota's American depositary receipts advanced 31 cents to $118.90. Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. tumbled $2.75 to $14.16. The company said it delayed the release of the next ``Grand Theft Auto'' video game until the second quarter of fiscal 2008 and lowered its sales and profit forecast for this year. Procter & Gamble Co. dropped 42 cents to $62.88. The largest U.S. consumer-goods company said it will spend as much as $30 billion over the next three years to buy back shares. SanDisk Corp., the world's largest maker of flash memory cards, added 66 cents to $53.43. Samsung Electronics Co., the world's second-largest chipmaker, will shut down some of its production lines for as long as two days because of a power outage, costing the company up to $54 million in lost sales and potentially boosting sales of competitors. Volatility Surge The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose to 25.16, the highest since April 2003. Higher readings in the so- called VIX, derived from prices paid for S&P 500 options, indicate more risk in stocks. In economic reports, the Labor Department said 92,000 jobs were added to payrolls in July compared with a forecast for an increase of 127,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The jobless rate rose to 4.6 percent in July from 4.5 percent in June. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected it to remain at 4.5 percent. The report said homebuilders cut payrolls by 12,000 after a 3,000 increase the previous month as the housing slump continues. Homebuilders Slump A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes dropped 5.3 percent as a group as all 16 of its members declined. D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. builder, slipped 69 cents to $16.46. Pulte Homes, the third biggest, lost $1.40 to $18.59. After the employment report, JPMorgan pushed back its forecast for when the Federal Reserve will change interest rates. The firm expects an increase in the middle of next year, compared with its prior prediction of around the end of this year. The Institute for Supply Management said its non- manufacturing index dropped to 55.8 last month, from 60.7 in June. Economists in a survey had expected a reading of 59 for July. The index, which shows service industries still expanding, has averaged 56.8 in the past 12 months. The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for companies with a median market value of $647 million, dropped 3.6 percent to 755.42. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index, the broadest measure of U.S. shares, fell 2.7 percent to 14,432.34. Based on its decline, the value of stocks decreased by $497 billion. Today's sell-off left the S&P 500 with a 1.8 percent drop for the week and a 1 percent advance for the year. The Dow lost 0.6 percent this week and is up 5.8 percent in 2007. To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: August 3, 2007 18:32 EDT |
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mirage
Veteran |
04-Aug-2007 11:58
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QUOTES: MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks plunged Friday, with credit concerns and a weak jobs report driving a sell-off that marked the Dow's third worst day of the year and steep weekly losses for the broader market.
Already on the decline, the pace of the sell-off quickened after a Bear Stearns Cos. conference call about the impact of bad home loans on its funds failed to reassure investors.
"They tried to put their best face on the situation but the market wasn't convinced," said Mike Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU :
$INDU
Sponsored by: The S&P 500 ($SPX :
$SPX
Sponsored by: COMP
Sponsored by: Dow loss leaders include American Express Co. (AXP :
AXP
Sponsored by: AA
Sponsored by: Volume at the New York Stock Exchange surpassed 2 billion, with declining stocks outpacing advancers six to one.
At the Nasdaq, more than 2.5 billion shares were exchanged, with decliners ahead of advancing stocks six to one.
"It wasn't long ago that Fridays were good in anticipation of more [leveraged buy-outs] and [mergers & acquisitions] over the weekend. Now there has been a shift in sentiment, with fear of bad news coming out over the weekend," said Malone.
Nonfarm payrolls grew by a lower than expected 92,000 in July, the lowest level since February. See full story.
In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since January, Economists were expecting payroll growth of about 133,000, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. The jobless rate was expected to remain at 4.5%. See Economic Calendar.
"This is not a positive catalyst for the market," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "I think people are going to be a little shocked that the unemployment rate inched higher last month."
Stern outlook
Stocks lost ground on a "disappointing" employment report and anxiety about "Bear Stearns and their credit concerns," John Hughes, managing director at Epiphany Equity Research, told MarketWatch.
 Listen to Hughes. The stock of Bear Stearns (BSC :
BSC
Sponsored by: Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER :
MER
Sponsored by: JPM
Sponsored by: Wachovia Corp. (WB :
WB
Sponsored by: Also taking a hit was the mortgage sector, with Countrywide Financial (CFC :
CFC
Sponsored by: Hit by bankruptcy concerns, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM :
AHM
Sponsored by: |
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jkbk007
Senior |
04-Aug-2007 07:43
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Dow is down over 200 points. Signs are pointing to US moving into stagflation. Gold shot up because analyst/trader saw that US will sacrifice their currencies to save the economy. If US starts to lower interest rate, US will move into hyperinflation and that is when gold is expected to shoot beyond 850. |
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
04-Aug-2007 05:39
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Wow! This is scary ! ...
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jerrymaguire
Member |
04-Aug-2007 03:12
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i am seeing dow falled from 13500 to 13400 at 2.10-2.30. 20mins falling 100 points ! another storm ? |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 00:22
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keke. kilroy! *hugs* :)))) elfie just woke up abt 930 just now, so kinda hanging ard. mebbe will go sleep again soon...hm. gotta learn forex (or at least, the mtds) from ya one day...thanks for the elaboration on the dif kind of tech stops the other day yea. JPY: they were saying might raise interest rates. sian. |
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KiLrOy
Master |
04-Aug-2007 00:18
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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Gold cheong today becoz USD/JPY weak. USD/JPY is weak becoz Payroll (NFP) annouced at 20:30H is weak. 
(perfect short term entry for USD/JPY for retracement. Take profit at 23.6% or 38.3% retracement) *wink* |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Aug-2007 00:04
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haha, imall29, relax lah.... the sti can never go to zero. since for it to go to zero, means ALL the component stocks of the STI goes bust. you're talking about companies like SPC, SMRT, ST Engg, Sembcorp, etc. simple question: can they all go broke, at the same time? Look at their NAVs, look at their earnings. The basis of the stock market is fundamental value. if all these companies cannot go bust at the same time, then, sti can never fall to zero. it's basic market logic. as for gold: this instrument is traditionally used as a hedge against the dollar. specifically, the US dollar. So sometimes, when gold prices rise, it may not be that the value of gold increases, but that the value of the US dollar drops. Those who buy physical gold--ie, asset allocated gold--(as opposed to gold ETFs denominated in other currencies etc) need to remember that when you transact back, you transact back to the USD. which if it is down, does cut out some of your gains. it's like a currency fixed deposits. So in that sense, gold is just another instrument. It will go up, yes, since it is a commodity whose quantity is decreasing. But need to weigh both the pros and cons: the value of gold has to exceed the drop in the USD (so kinda like playing forex really), and you have to be able to sell off your gold: gold buyers only buy in 1 tonne or more. Then there is also the issue of where you are storing your gold--i'm assuming a serious investor has at least a few 100 kgs, in order to make it worthwhile---if it's in a warehouse, you need insurance, you need to buy the space as well. It is certainly a very good investment hedge to possess; but each individual needs to consider his/her trading personality, and what kind of gold you want (asset allocated, vs ETFs, vs certs), plus their pros and cons, before jumping in. in any case, up market or down market, there's always a chance to make money. it's simply a question of watching for the opportunity, and playing with, not against your own personality. Never say die. (of course, don't go jumping in anyhow too!) cheers to all! 
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imall29
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03-Aug-2007 23:33
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cheongwee, maybe sharejunction is the wrong website for you. goldjunction ? It is not the end of the world, just stock market. I still remembered my grandmom always told us to keep some gold just in case there is war. But "the world dies" ? so serious? Stock market always has its up and down. Just look at the stock market history for the past 20 years. The market somehow always recover. You can have your own view, but saying "I do not mind all the stock on STI go to zero...so long my gold and gold cheong" on sharejunction is not quite right. It is like going to Anfield to support Man U. Cheers. |
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