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Popular, good to buy and hold for long term?
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ah_huat
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31-Aug-2011 15:08
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pls lah brudder, Stamford land or Stamford tyre, in terms of dividend yield how to compare?
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ah_huat
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31-Aug-2011 13:56
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So if point 2 is gonna happen, which I think it might based on recent price action.  I think it's my duty to minority shareholders and myself to make it a little bit more expensive for whoever lor.... Here's an advice  (which should not to be taken too seriously).  Buy now while u still can. I start talking now hor.... come to think of it.  I never did stop. lol       |
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ah_huat
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31-Aug-2011 12:47
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So what do I think? Well, I do believe there is a chance they might be thinking of privatision. IMHO, around 25 cents would be a good number.   So do I think it can happen now? No.  Quite Unlikely they'll be able to pull this off at the current stage.   Not with all my BS below, and especially not with $85.6m in net cash. But seriously, they'll be doing themselves a favour if they tried. Why? coz they'll be removing a thorn from their backside. lol   Before that can happen, 1 of 2 things (or both) needs to take place.   1. they will need to use or hide that massive amount of cash. Why? coz CASH is CASH. And unlike some S-chip companies, U cannot writedown cash, u cannot writeoff cash, u cannot depreciate cash, u cannot make it " disappear" . And mind u, IMHO, when it comes to writing stuff off, they r pretty trigger happy hor. lol. So how then? Well, they can either do this by paying out a bigger dividend (dream long long) or by buying/ investing in something huge. Akan Datang!   2. Possibily another round of potential diluation. Rights issue again? Highly unlikely. Not with $85.6m in Net cash. They can't pull it off. So how? Think along the lines of share issue/ placement, partnership and JV. If that does happen, better check carefully hor. Check for what? 1. How established this new business is? 2. Whether ownership has recently changed hands?   So when? If it does happen, have to be Soon lah. Possibly sooner than u think.   |
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ah_huat
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31-Aug-2011 08:21
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Why are u so suprise?  I think his post got deleted.  It should be the case.  Anyway, if he is still reading this, my advise to him is u need to be careful what u post.  They do log ur IP address and these people, if they wanted to, already know who you are.  I am guessing disgruntle ex-employee?  From the Finance dept maybe?  lol If you do have proof of this u should email  the independent director and c.c. SGX hor.    Independent Director got 2, so which one?  If I  size them right, skip Mr Vangat and email Mrs Lim  Soon Tze directly at MOE.  Email hor.  Don't just call.  Why?  Proof of receipt.  
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ah_huat
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23-Aug-2011 16:06
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Ya lor.  Very sad. lol Lucky my salivar supply still alot. lol Anyway, let me continue hor.  Let's talk about their property developments next.  By the way, did any of the brudders who attended AGM ask them about the average selling price of their 8 Raja development? Also, for  the 6 remaining units at 18 Shelford?  I hear from friend someone asked.  Did they give u a straight answer? Afterall, not a difficult question mah.  Very straight forward.  or did they play " Tai Chi" ?  I believe it's the latter hor....     |
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limkt009
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23-Aug-2011 10:45
![]() Yells: "Watch your front, grab $$$$$ at your own time" |
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Very sad...a one-man show. | ||||
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ah_huat
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23-Aug-2011 10:39
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Plus, their cash business is even better than your Mee Pok Hawker or your Kachang Puti seller.  Why leh?  Coz most of their suppliers (based on size of their trade payables to retail sales) gives them 90 days credit. 
If a Kachang Puti man ask his supplier for 90days credit, I am pretty sure they will shaft a peanut up his ***.  haha .  Also don’t be too surprise if a number of their stuff is on consignment. 
So ask u this, U think they EVEN need to maintain a NET CASH position for working capital?  Just in case?  Please lah, for the “just in case” hah, just go get a OD line from a bank.  Even then, based on the above, they probably wouldn’t even ve to drawdown on it.  |
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ah_huat
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23-Aug-2011 10:34
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Let me explain this simply. 
They sell 1 pen, they ring the cash register,  Sell 1 eraser, “kaching!”.  Sell 1 magazine, " kaching!" . Sell 1 assessment book, “kaching!”.   
Collect all the money leow, then pay rent, pay workers, and pay suppliers.  In Popular’s case, they some more still got balance left to put under mattress!  How much more?  Well, base on their latest full yr results, their PTB for retail ops was $19.1m.   Cashflow should be even more when u add back depreciation. 
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ah_huat
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23-Aug-2011 10:29
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They say they NEED all that money for working capital?  Smoke bomb bro. 
Come on lah, u can be serious right?  Let me say this again, they are a CASH BUSINESS!!  A very profitable and cashflow positive CASH BUSINESS!!!
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ah_huat
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23-Aug-2011 10:21
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So how did the AGM go? Anybody ask the below questions for me?  What about ask them to increase dividend?  Got or not? 
I am guessing no lah.  My dear brudders, u guys seriously need to fight for it and not let them throw smoke bombs at u leh.  They have cash in the bank of $104.8m and close to $86m in NET CASH.    Just from the $19.3m sales proceeds of 5 units at 18 Shelford, NET CASH likely to increase to around $105m. 
Need to get them to payout more in dividend, if not, guarantee u they might do something silly with the cash lah. |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 08:39
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By the way, talking about resolution 9. Was the last rights issue really necessary?  U tell me. I'll stop talking for now.  25cents by Sept.  Thank you.               |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 08:21
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8 Raja, centrally in Balestier near Thomson rd.  Their largest freehold development to date to be completed middle next year. 
Bought end 2007 (ouch!) for total of $32m or $687 per sqft plot ratio.  Now, sure make money and relatively easy to sell if priced right.   After FOUR long and painful years they finally launch it.  As I understand it, they haven’t sold a single unit yet. 
Here’s the question.  What are they pricing this at? i.e. the average selling price.  Close to $1,800 psf maybe?  And the average selling price for the area?  I don’t know…. Ask them.    So are they pricing this to sell or pricing it way above market?  If so, why leh?  Too much cash oreadi ah?  keke |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 07:29
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18 Shelford development which has already TOP.  Based on caveats lodged recently in May & June, they “suddenly” sold 5 units at approx. $1,740 psf. Total consideration is $19.3m.  IMHO, it probably caught mgmt by surprise.  All thanks to a neighbouring development which recently launching at an even higher selling price. 
In any case, within approx 10 weeks, there will be a substantial boost in net cash from this property development alone.  What plans for the cash?  Hopefully Dividend perhaps? Keke. |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 07:21
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When there’s too much cash, mgmt (in general) have a higher tendency of doing stupid things, such as paying suppliers off early, laxing off on collections, and stocking too much unnecessary inventory, slowing down sales by pricing goods & services way above market, or worst still, investing a large sum of money at the WRONG time. Btw, this is the WORST time possible to be even considering buying residential land or acquiring another company.  I seriously hope they have no plans for that.  So can mgmt agree upon a cap for cash and pay any excess back to shareholders in the form of higher dividend?    As the saying goes “Too much cash makes people do stupid things”.    |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 07:12
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4th question.  Ask them why they are keeping such as excessive amount of  cash.  Cash lvl current stands at almost $105m.  Less borrowings that are mainly property development related, they have a net cash position of $86m.  And that is set to increase substantially thank to 18 Shelford.  As they are in a cash business and have very healthy credit terms fr suppliers, do they even need a net cash position?  Need to keep this for a “just in case”?  U know, there’s a thing call Banking facilities and Trade Finance for those “just in case” days.    And I am pretty sure nost banker out there would be clamouring for their business. lol  |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 07:05
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Let me explain translation loss…
Taking a hypothetical scenario, let say you bought a
Becoz of this drop in exchange rate, you have to report in your accounts, a translation loss of S$3.1m.  This mean the value of this property in SGD terms is now worth $6.9m in your books and your NTA takes a hit. 
However, what is not reflected in your books is that while the value of HKD might have fallen, the real market value of that HK property might have risen substantially over those years, and perhaps even over your initial investments of S$10m.    SO how to know?  Simple, one off revaluation lah.  |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 07:02
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If a substantial chunk of it came from property link and/or retail outlet link assets, then I am not too concern. 
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 07:00
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While this took a big bite out of net profits, IMHO, it did not affect cashflow.      |
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ah_huat
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19-Aug-2011 06:56
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In FY2011, they reported a translation loss of $8.55m.  |
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ah_huat
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18-Aug-2011 18:22
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A fellow former, i.e. pharoh88, recently highlighted in red with massive fonts, there was a drop in earnings.  But from what I see, the bulk of their drop in earning came mainly from translation loss.  Could someone help me ask mgmt just HOW much of that, i.e. what percentage came from their overseas retail, office and warehouse fixed assets.  Reason I want to know is coz I notice they historically maintain a relatively small amount of foreign currencies on their books and have a relatively tiny accounts receivable.  Just can’t figure out where that came from? |
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