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DBS
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Littleboy
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12-Aug-2009 11:23
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i am stucked in this counter too. Now in a loss, dunno should cut loss or not | ||||
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wongmx6
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12-Aug-2009 11:22
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I agree, I don't trust all this free Recommendation, i will just take it as a reference.
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niuyear
Supreme |
12-Aug-2009 11:21
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Huh!! $10.80!! My goodness!
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wongmx6
Veteran |
12-Aug-2009 11:16
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This morning, Channel News Asia did mention JP Morgan raise TP of DBS to 16.XX.
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niuyear
Supreme |
12-Aug-2009 11:13
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I saw from TV this morning either Bloomberg or Channel news asia while i was walking out of the house abt JP morgan's upgrade. OCBC yesterday has a 'BUY' rating and its TP is 14.85. p/s - I copy / paste the ocbc's recommendation for your info and its distorted. Sorry for that.
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niuyear
Supreme |
12-Aug-2009 11:09
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I saw over the TV this morning either bloomberg of channel news asia while i was walking out of the hous
A No. 010/06/2009 Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this document. DBS Group Holdings Ltd Better than expected 2Q09 results of S$552m, down 15% YoY but +27% QoQ, and were above the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of S$425m. Net Interest Income improved 5.1% YoY or 3.3% QoQ to S$1112m in 2Q09. From the fee income side, the best performers were its Stockbroking (+28%YoY and +79% QoQ), Investment-related (+59% QoQ), Wealth Management (+31% QoQ) and Fund Management (+20%QoQ) units. Cost-to-income ratio also improved from 42.5% in 2Q08 to 38.4% in 1Q09 and then to a significantly lower 35.2% by 2Q09. Non Interest Income rose 22% YoY and 16% QoQ to S$680m. . DBS Group posted 2Q09 net earningsAs expected, impairment charges remained high $90m in 2Q08 to $437m in 1Q09 and $466m by 2Q09 (OCBC of S$104m and UOB of S$465m for 2Q09). Net Interest Margin (NIM) was better QoQ, but down YoY. It improved from 1.99% in 1Q09 to 2.01% in 2Q09. The group has declared a dividend of 14 cents for this quarter. For 1H09, the group posted earnings of S$985m or 46% of our revised FY09 forecast. . This surged fromUpping FY09 and FY10 estimates. we have revised our earnings estimates. While we expect impairment charges to remain high, we believe that 1Q and 2Q were the peak quarters and impairment charges should come off in 3Q and 4Q. We are projecting lower charges of S$567m in 2H09 versus S$903m in 1H09. In addition, with the rally in the equity market, we expect capital market activities and fee-based income to improve and we have raised our estimates for 2H09. Overall, we are increasing FY09 earnings from S$1572m to S$2128m. For FY10, we have also upped our estimates from S$1965m to S$2401m. With improving economic prospects,Maintain BUY, raised fair value estimates to S$14.65. the improved economic outlook, although uncertainty still remains and unemployment is still high in the US, valuations for the three local banking stocks have also moved up higher. To reflect this trend, we are raising our valuation peg from 1.2x to 1.4x book and this in turn raises our fair value estimate from S$12.40 to S$14.65. At this price, valuation is 15.7x FY09 earnings and 13.9x FY10 earnings. Assuming that the group maintains its 14 cents per quarter dividend payout, annual yield is fairly decent at 4.4% based on current price. We are maintaining our Together withBUY rating on DBS.e. OCBC securities also has a BUY rating yesterday with TP $14.85.
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DnApeh
Master |
12-Aug-2009 11:06
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if want 2 buy, better buy when sell report is out. | ||||
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wongmx6
Veteran |
12-Aug-2009 10:59
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DBS Group Holdings
11 August 2009
Results review DBS reported net earnings of S$552mil (-17.4% yoy, +21.1% qoq,
1Q09: S$456mil) due to higher revenues in both interest income and non-interest
income segments. Allowances were 12.6% higher over the quarter signifying the
tough operating environment in the industry.
Net interest income grew to S$1112mil (+5.1% yoy, +3.4% qoq) from the expanded
loan base over the year. Net interest margins fell 3bps over the year to 2.01% as
improved credit spreads and reduced funding costs were negated by lower returns on
interbank assets.
Non-interest income increased 25.7% to S$680mil (+25.7% yoy, +16.0% qoq, 1Q09:
S$586mil) over the year from higher fee income (+4.7% yoy, +12.9% qoq), trading
activities (+110.8% yoy, +14.7% qoq) and net income on financial investments
(+181.6% yoy, +30.2% qoq). Expenses were lower at S$631mil (-8.2% yoy, -1.1%
qoq) due to lower staff costs from the reduction in headcount. Cost to income was
lower at 35.2%.
Gross loans expanded to S$130.4bil (+8.4% yoy, -1.8% qoq), driven by loans
expansion in building and construction (+14.6% yoy) and financial institutions,
investment and holding companies (+36.9% yoy). However, as compared to last
quarter, gross loans contracted 1.8% due to currency translation effects with all
sectors reporting a decline except financial institutions and private individuals.
Manufacturing industry reported the steepest decline of 8.0% over the quarter.
The Group took another S$466mil allowance for loans and other assets comprising of
S$ 183mil for general allowances, S$272mil for specific allowances.
NPLs jumped over the quarter to S$3.70bil while the NPL ratio spiked to 2.8% from
2.0% in 1Q09 due to exposures to shipping and Middle East corporates and
institutions. Total cumulative allowances slipped to 81% of NPAs as compared to
97% last quarter. DBS remains to be well capitalised with Tier 1 ratio higher at 12.6%
but total CAR ratio lower at 16.2% due to Tier 2 subordinated debts amortization.
Provisions to rise We adjust our NPL ratio assumptions upwards from 2.0% to 3.2%
for 2009 as asset quality deteriorated faster than expected. We also forecast
impairment charges to remain high in the second half of this year as coverage ratio to
beef up to 80% from the current 68% of NPLs. This will certainly add pressure to
earnings for 2H09.
Be prepared for dividend cut Despite maintaining dividends of 14 cents, similar to
the 1Q09, we do not think that it will be sustainable. Payout ratio of 66% in the first
1H09 is considered high in the industry. High payout ratio will also discount growth in
our financial modeling.
Recommendation Although we have reduced the market risk premium in our
Gordon Growth Model across the three banks, high payout ratio and low ROE pose a
downside risk to DBS’ valuation. The subsequent rights issue boosted the equity
substantially and with earnings declining, it is difficult to expect ROE to go beyond 10%. It is a matter of lower dividend payout or reduced growth assumption. Accordingly, our target price has been adjusted to S$10.80. This is pegged to 1.05x FY09 NAV. But we do note that this valuation is a steep discount to the 5-year average P/B ratio of 1.4X NAV. We downgrade the rating to SELL.
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wongmx6
Veteran |
12-Aug-2009 10:57
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Phillip Securities Research. Recommendation: SELL Previous call: Hold Price Previous close S$12.84 Fair value S$10.80 Date : 11 Aug 09 |
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bh704428
Veteran |
12-Aug-2009 10:47
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so when was this $16 price target dated/released to the public?
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niuyear
Supreme |
12-Aug-2009 10:36
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I think DBS share price'a slump is due to its earning has declined and people take it as a bad news and once BB start to short down, everyone follows. Also the recent court case of Lehman brother saga could have put some pressure on its share price. If it goes down somemore, i would think there could be more serious problem than the above as being the biggest lender in singapore, bad debt i.e. housing loan and credit cards might be taking its toll on the share price. Hope the up and coming singaporean CEO could bring the bank high into the sky. |
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foucs6900
Senior |
12-Aug-2009 09:54
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Any expert ever see tis...................pls advice..............................yes i hv sold n loss liao, but just need to knw why tis happen to DBS, ???? | ||||
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foucs6900
Senior |
12-Aug-2009 09:45
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tink DBS is in deep shit nw, look at px nw.................................loser............hope many ppl realise tat n start withdraw all thier hard earn $ n deposit in a better n stable Banks..................
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foucs6900
Senior |
12-Aug-2009 09:40
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could be !!!!! one of the plan is keep blcok the selling px at certain level, if DBS or any BB wan it to push up, oni way is to 1 time buy up at higher px......n then the blockers will earn lor....jus my view oni | ||||
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niuyear
Supreme |
12-Aug-2009 09:37
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JP morgan has buy target $16 plus. Saw over the TV. Dont tell me they are the one who had been shorting this stock down and then now they upgrade? All these shorting down, upgrading etc are gimmicks? Arent they? |
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foucs6900
Senior |
12-Aug-2009 09:35
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look like some big big players, wan to short it dwn for gd profit, n tis big players is richer than DBS, hahaha....... Anyway, sian abt DBS liao.....u can said me too emotional, but is true tat they cant even protect their own integrity at all.......................... |
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sixsence
Member |
12-Aug-2009 09:30
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What happen to this counter ? | ||||
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foucs6900
Senior |
11-Aug-2009 15:16
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Selling vol keep on comin at some level, esp nw at 12.880 n earlier 12.9.......buyer hv weaken by buying up liao, hmmmm all tis BB hv lots of chips to keep on selling........... | ||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
11-Aug-2009 14:20
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dbs coming back with furore.. look @ the vol! |
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foucs6900
Senior |
11-Aug-2009 12:19
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Tks Wong, wish u earn big bucks ............. | ||||
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