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Rubber prices
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
15-Jan-2007 13:33
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Asian physical rubber prices were quoted higher on Monday, boosted by prices on TOCOM rising to a five-month high. However, physical trade was not as bullish as on TOCOM with China, the world's biggest rubber consumer, reluctant to buy at high prices, traders said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
15-Jan-2007 00:05
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Sporeguy, I think you're right. It is dull compared to oil palm's lucrative biodiesel sector. |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
14-Jan-2007 15:51
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Rubber is a very labour-intensive industry. So have nagging feeling it can hardly move as compared to Oil Palm. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
13-Jan-2007 23:46
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The June TOCOM rubber contract finished the session down 1.7 yen, at 256.5 yen. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
12-Jan-2007 14:37
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Key Tokyo rubber futures fell on Friday, after advancing to their highest in almost five months in early trade, as speculators locked in profits ahead of the weekend and trading companies sold lightly for hedging purposes. The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for June delivery rose as high as 258.4 yen -- the highest for a benchmark contract since Aug. 16 -- as a higher dollar encouraged investor buying. A rise in the dollar inflated yen-based rubber prices. The June TOCOM rubber contract finished the morning session down 1.4 yen, or 0.6%, at 255.1 yen, after falling briefly to 253.6 yen. The market was choppy and volatile in heavy trading, but the June rubber has risen nearly 10% since hitting 235.8 yen on Tuesday. But some analysts remained bullish despite a drop in oil prices, which tends to stimulate demand for synthetic rubber. "The June contract earlier fell below 254 yen, but only very briefly. That's proof that bargain-hunting demand from bullish players is strong," a trader at a Tokyo-based commodities brokerage said. "Strength in other commodities than oil and a rise in the dollar above 120 yen both look supportive," he said. Bullish physical rubber prices also supported TOCOM prices, but the market lacked distinct fundamental factors to trade on. Prices were supported by speculation that Chinese firms would buy more physical rubber ahead of the Lunar New Year, but there was little evidence for that as inventories in China were rising, traders said. Rubber stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange were up 2,415 tonnes, or 3%, to 77,180 tonnes on Jan. 4. Asian physical rubber prices were mostly unchanged in a quiet market on Friday, although traders said there were buyers waiting for prices to fall. "I think the demand is there, but they are all waiting for a lower level before they buy," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. In Thailand's main growing areas the weather has been dry since rain hit last week, allowing more tapping, and more rubber is expected to arrive on the market in the next few days. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
12-Jan-2007 13:06
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Key Tokyo rubber futures drifted down after advancing to their highest in almost five months on Friday as speculators lightened their positions ahead of the weekend, with the market lacking major factors to trade on. The lead Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for June delivery rose as high as 258.4 yen a gram -- the highest for a benchmark contract since August 16. As of 0054 GMT, June TOCOM rubber contract was trading down 1.7 yen or 0.66% at 254.8 yen from Thursday's close of 256.5. The market was choppy and volatile in heavy trading. June rubber has gained nearly 10% from this week's low of 235.8 yen reached on Tuesday. Sentiment brightened further as the key contract closed above its 200-day moving average (MA) the previous day. Currently, the 200-day MA line is at 252.3 yen and traders are closely watching whether the key rubber contract could hold above that level on Friday. Bullish physical rubber prices also supported TOCOM prices, but the market lacked distinct fundamental factors to trade on. Traders said prices were supported by speculation that Chinese buyers would purchase more physical rubber ahead of the Lunar New Year in mid-February, but there was little evidence for that as inventories in China were rising. Rubber stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange were up 2,415 tonnes, or 3%, to 77,180 tonnes as of January 4. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
11-Jan-2007 11:23
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Asian physical rubber prices rose further on Thursday, tracking the upward trend on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange as speculative buying pushed prices up. Traders said the high physical prices did not reflect fundamentals. "Physical trade was not as bullish as in TOCOM. It's not realistic," a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
10-Jan-2007 12:45
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Japanese rubber futures rose on Wednesday due to follow-through buying after prices surged more than 4% a day earlier. At 0343 GMT, the benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for June delivery was trading at 250.4 yen per kg, or 1.1 yen higher than Tuesday's close. The contract rose by its 10-yen daily limit to 249.3 yen on Tuesday due to speculative buying backed by concerns of falling supply as rain hit the world's top rubber producing countries, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. Bearish sentiment in other commodities, mainly oil and metals, also encouraged funds and speculators to put their money into rubber futures. TOCOM rubber futures' daily limit was expanded to 15 yen on Wednesday. However, dealers and traders said they doubted rubber prices could gather the momentum to rise sharply again as the market was quite overbought and higher prices could put a halt to buying of physical rubber. "It's OK for paper trade like TOCOM to rise higher, but I think it's too fast and too much," a dealer said. "The market is puzzled by about yesterday's sharp rise despite overall weakness in commodity prices, mainly energy," said Takashi Ogura, a director at Kanetsu Asset Management. Dealers said they were watching whether prices could stay above the key level of 250 yen. "If it breaks 250 yen, it could rise more higher," another dealer in Tokyo said. "But if prices could not stay above 250 yen, then we could see a technical correction." On the physical front, prices rose again, tracking TOCOM's rise and boosted by falling supply as rain disrupted tappers in the three main producers. However, traders said they expected demand to fall over the next few days as some tyremakers, including Chinese firms, began to hold back orders in hopes of lower prices. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
10-Jan-2007 12:25
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Jennie, Asian physical rubber prices rose again on Wednesday a day after Tokyo Commodity Exchange futures surged by their daily 10-yen limit, or more than 4%, on speculative buying. I think this is due to TA reasons. Prices were also backed by falling supply as rain hit the world's top rubber producing countries -- Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. However, traders said they expected demand to fall over the next few days as some tyremakers, including Chinese firms, began to hold back orders in hopes of lower prices. |
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Jennie
Member |
09-Jan-2007 16:41
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Nostradamus Thanks for your views. I agree with you. However we see a down market on Tocom this morning. In the late afternoon, market went limits up. What's causing the erratic movement today? It certainly doesn't make sense to me but I feel it's not a good thing for the market. What do you think? |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
09-Jan-2007 13:18
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Tokyo rubber futures slid to a two-week low on Tuesday as weak sentiment in other commodities prompted market players to liquidate long positions. The benchmark rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exhange for June delivery ended the morning session at 238.0 yen per kg, down 1.3 yen from Friday. The benchmark fell as far as 235.8 yen, the lowest since Dec. 25. Investors have been keen to cut their positions since the start of the year with prices of oil and metals generally under pressure and rubber prices surging more than 30% last month, traders said. "It's technical sales, as other commodities trends are quite weak today and I think the market has a small downside potential," a dealer in Tokyo said. The key contract was down nearly 8% since reaching a four-month high of 255.5 yen on Dec. 29. Market sentiment turned bearish after rubber failed to hold above the 200-day moving average of 252.1 yen. The contract rose above the moving average on Dec. 28 and Dec. 29, but has been below that level since the start of the year. However, TOCOM prices were not expected to fall sharply on Tuesday, backed by the technical chart moving average and physical factors. "TOCOM prices should try the first support of 232 yen first, which I don't think they could break easily," a dealer in Singapore said. "We should be careful because there is rain in Malaysia and southern Thailand that may affect raw materials," he said. In Thailand, the world biggest rubber producer, supplies were falling. Although no more heavy rain was reported, there were still showers in the south which disrupted tapping. Rain also hit Malaysia, another key rubber producer, causing supply worries that supported physical prices, traders said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
09-Jan-2007 12:10
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Asian physical rubber prices dropped slightly on Tuesday in line with a fall on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. But growing supply worries prevented prices from falling significantly as rain hit Thailand and Malaysia, the world's number 1 and number 3 producers respectively, traders said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
08-Jan-2007 12:00
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Asian physical rubber prices rose on Monday on supply worries as heavy rain hit Thailand, the world's biggest producer, traders said. However, demand was expected to rise as China, the world's biggest consumer, was in the market starting to build stocks ahead of the Lunar New Year next month, they said. Physical trade revived gradually after the end of long New Year holidays, with rains and floods easing in the world's number 2and 3 rubber producers -- Indonesia and Malaysia. Japan's Tokyo Commodity Exchange, which sets the trend for global rubber prices, was closed on Monday for a national holiday and will resume trading on Tuesday. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
07-Jan-2007 19:54
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Jennie, The wintering period could be delayed, but it could set in late Feb. Commodity prices have been plunging. But oil prices could have bottomed at US$54.50. Buyers were expected to become active in the second week of January before prices rise in late Febuary, when Thailand's winter dry season sets in and rubber trees produce less latex. Buying is expected to start again, especially Chinese traders who should look to build stocks ahead of the Lunar New Year next month. All these factors could lend support to rubber prices. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
05-Jan-2007 14:00
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Japanese rubber futures dropped further on Friday to a one-week low, in line with falls in other commodities. The near 9% falls in oil prices to around US$55 a barrel dragged gold futures down more than 1.5% and fuelled selling of rubber futures. The key rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange for June delivery ended the morning session at 0200 GMT down 8.5 yen at 240.7 yen per kg, or 3.5% lower than Thursday's half-day session close. The benchmark hit 239.7 yen per kg, the lowest since Dec. 26. Profit-taking after rallies late last year added momentum to the fall, dealers said. "It's weakness on other commodities and a technical correction on rubber futures itself which dragged TOCOM rubber prices down today," a dealer in Tokyo said. The market was seen due for a correction after having risen about 70 yen in the space of one month from a one-year low of 185.5 yen on Nov. 24. Dealers said they expected TOCOM prices to rebound in the afternoon after the technical correction. "It seems like the price would not fall below 240.0 yen easily," a Japanese dealer said. Expected demand over the next week should also help prices rebound, traders said. Buyers were expected to become active in the second week of January before prices rise in late Febuary, when Thailand's winter dry season sets in and rubber trees produce less latex. But some pessimistic dealers said TOCOM prices might fall further if the benchmark contract broke the key technical support of 240.0 yen. "If it breaks 240.0 yen, stop-loss selling would be triggered and prices may fall much lower," another dealer in Tokyo said. On the physical front, Asian physical rubber prices fell further on Friday, taking their cue from Tocom. Demand was thin with most buyers on the sidelines, traders said. However, the market should revive over the next week as buying starts again after the long year-end holiday, especially Chinese traders who should look to build stocks ahead of the Lunar New Year next month, they said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
05-Jan-2007 13:24
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Asian physical rubber prices fell further on Friday, taking their cue from a 3.5% drop on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange due to weakness of other commodities. Demand was thin with most buyers on the sidelines, traders said. However, the market should revive over the next week as buying starts again after the long year-end holiday, especially Chinese traders who should look to build stocks ahead of the Lunar New Year next month, they said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
05-Jan-2007 01:37
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Tokyo rubber futures ended down. The January contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange closed at 239.2 yen per kg, down 3.3 yen from Wednesday's close. |
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Jennie
Member |
04-Jan-2007 18:40
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Nostradamus Thanks for updates. I believe the rainy season is slowing down however as you mentioned, the wet weather will still be back. Don't know for how long. I think the wintering period will be delayed for Indonesia and Malaysia as the weather is still expected to be wet. You are right. I think Thailand will be building up stock again. However we also hope that China will come back at full swing. What do you think? Oil price is definitely something to consider. At the moment, the price has been hovering just below USD60/barrel due to the warmer winter in the US. Hence, it depends on the OPEC on their move to further curb exports in due time?? I'm not sure if I'm understanding the market correctly. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
03-Jan-2007 18:16
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Jennie, Asian physical rubber prices were steady on Wednesday as dealers awaited direction from the Tokyo rubber futures market, traders said. The Japanese market, which sets the trend for global rubber prices, is closed for a public holiday and will reopen for a half-day session on Thursday. In Thailand, more supply is expected to hit the market in the coming days helped by good dry weather, traders said. In Indonesia, some regions are also hit hard by floods. But the water is receding. But I believe heavy rains will return. So after a bit of correction, rubber prices could rise again. For 2007, I think rubber prices will be on uptrend. But this would also depend on oil prices. |
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Jennie
Member |
03-Jan-2007 15:58
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Nostradamus, Haven't seen your comments for awhile. Any views on what 2007 holds for the rubber market? It's been raining cats and dogs in Malaysia, especially in the southern part of the Peninsular. Heard that tapping activities have just begun again this week. However the weather forecast is not particularly optimistic for the weeks ahead. This may push prices up but delays in shipments are also a concern for producers. What about Thailand and Indonesia? Any news on these markets? |
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