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Sembmarine
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sgnewbie
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05-Sep-2012 09:26
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http://sgxreports.blogspot.sg/2012/09/offshore-marine.html | ||||
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sgnewbie
Master |
04-Sep-2012 09:33
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http://sgxreports.blogspot.sg/2012/09/sembcorp-marine.html | ||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
03-Sep-2012 14:05
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super power record orderbooks.. fundamentally strong company dyodd gd luck Earnings on recovery mode • Strong visibility from record orderbook• Robust pipeline FY13 order wins raised to S$5bn• FY13 Earnings to bottom in FY12 and poised for recovery from• Maintain BUY, TP S$5.85Major Petrobras orders secured strong visibility from record orderbook. added to its orderbook. Included were the five drillships and the two anticipated FPSO projects for Petrobras. These have set new records for SMM, with FY12 YTD order wins of S$9.1bn exceeding pre-crisis peaks, and its S$12.6bn orderbook translating to a bookto- bill of 2.6x, extending earnings visibility. August was a bumper month for SMM, with S$6.1bnRobust pipeline FY13F order wins raised to S$5bn. back of rising rig day rates and tightening rig capacity, the pipeline for potential orders remains robust. We raise our FY13 order wins assumption to S$5.0bn (prev S$4.0bn) in view of this no change to our FY12 non-Petrobras order wins assumption of S$5bn. In the near term, we see SMM as a key contender for two harsh environment Cat J jackups for Statoil worth > US$1bn. On theEarnings to bottom in FY12 poised for recovery from FY13. We expect earnings to bottom in FY12, before recovering 17% yo- y in FY13F, and 4% in FY14F. The recovery in earnings is expected to commence from 2H12, which forms 61% of our FY12F, buoyed by higher turnover and improved margins. We maintain our FY13F despite raising our order wins assumption as we tweak our orderbook recognition schedule. Growth in FY13/14F is underpinned by higher revenues from orderbook drawdown, and on commencement of higher-margin ship repair contributions from the new yard in FY13, with full year contributions from all 4 drydocks in FY14. Maintain BUY. maintained. We have pegged the valuation of its core businesses to 16x FY13 PE (unchanged), +0.5SD to historical mean. SMM is a prime beneficiary of the current upcycle of deepwater, harsh environment rigs. We see near term catalysts in the form of strong order wins momentum on a robust project pipeline and improving
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sgnewbie
Master |
30-Aug-2012 09:25
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http://sgxreports.blogspot.sg/2012/08/sembcorp-marine_30.html | ||||
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krisluke
Supreme |
29-Aug-2012 23:06
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Sembcorp Marine: Secured US$674m contracts in Brazil (BUY, S$5.00, TP: S$5.70) - Flash
Jason Saw (+65 6232 3871, jason.saw@sg,oskgroup.com) High earnings visibility with record order book. Sembcorp Marine (SMM)’s Brazilian unit Jurong Do Brasil has won a US$674m (S$844m) contract from Tupi B.V., a Petrobras-led consortium. Weestimate that the new contract lifted its YTD order win to around S$9.2b and net backlog to S$12.6b, a new record backlog for the company. SMM’s FY12 order win is now close to our full year estimate of S$9.6b. As Brent (US$112/bbl) and WTI (US$96/bbl) crude oil prices are trading significantly above oil majors’ investment hurdle rate of US$75-80/bbl, we believe spending for offshore projects will remain robust. This will benefit offshore yards with proven execution track record like SMM. We keep our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of S$5.70, which implies 20x FY12F P/E and 18x FY13 P/E. Contract includes an option for one more FPSO.
The contract involves the construction of eight modules and module integration work for two identical Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels, P-68 and P-71. The two FPSOs are scheduled for completion in 60 months and each unit will have a production capacity of 150,000 barrels of oil per day. On top of the current contract, Tupi has an option to construct four modules and modules integration for on FPSO to be exercised within the next 18 months.
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krisluke
Supreme |
29-Aug-2012 23:03
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Sembcorp Marine: FPSO contract materialises, as expected Sembcorp Marine (SMM) announced that it has secured a contract worth US$674m for the construction of eight modules and module integration works for two FPSO vessels from Tupi B.V. (a consortium owned by Petrobras Netherlands, BG Overseas and Galp Energia E& P). Scheduled for completion in 60 months, the two FPSOs will be deployed in Brazil. Tupi also has a similar contract option to construct four modules and module integration work for an FPSO which can be exercised within 18 months. As mentioned in our earlier reports (8 Aug, 22 Aug 2012), SMM is expected to secure FPSO work from Petrobras and hence this latest announcement is within our expectations. With this contract win, SMM has secured contracts worth about S$9.1b YTD, accounting for 95.9% of our full year estimate. Maintain BUY with S$6.09 fair value estimate. (Low Pei Han) |
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spices
Member |
29-Aug-2012 16:17
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thanks and appreciate for sharing the info with us, all here. keep it up...
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khng2012
Master |
29-Aug-2012 16:02
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Anyway. Good luck whoever vested. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
29-Aug-2012 15:56
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this stock is not in uptrend but in sideway. think will go range bound for a while before any move | ||||
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khng2012
Master |
29-Aug-2012 15:52
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No worry, take it easy. Short term, trend is up if market is not turning bad. Long term, performance in Brazil Yard is and Petrobras payment ability is critical. The 2Billion cash on hand was eroded slowly in last Q result. It will continue to erode for their Jurong Brazil Yard, Tuas Mega Yard and the first Petrobras drill ship. Few years ago, when I was still in shipbuilding industry, we knew that Jurong almost make a loss in their 1st Semi-Submersible oil rig in Jurong Shipyard. However, they came back very strong for their 2nd and progressive Semi-Sub rig and make a lot of money from Semi-Sub and became one of the leader of building Semi-Sub rig in the world. Actually, I was quite impressive with what Jurong achieved at that time. |
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rutheone1905
Veteran |
29-Aug-2012 15:32
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khng, thanks for info. i m sorry n pull back wat i said earlier.
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khng2012
Master |
29-Aug-2012 15:25
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/us-petrobras-earnings-idUSBRE8721OH20120803 I am not interested in Petrobras but only know that it post loss in 2Q 2012. I read some report before to state how Petrobras is high debt and over-borrowed for his oil exploration. Just for the 20+rigs awarded to Jurong, Keppel and EAS, you can know how much they borrow but it doesn't include other expense in subsea pipe & cable laying, FPSO construction and etc. Whoever heavily involved in Petrobras project must pray at everyday that crude oil will not drop below 80USD dollars for more than half years. Otherwise, their payment in the project is going to have problem. |
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khng2012
Master |
29-Aug-2012 15:14
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/samsung-brazil-shipyard-idUSL2E8EG3VO20120316 http://gcaptain.com/brazilian-shipbuilding-renaissance/ It is an old news for Samsung to pull out from Brazil yard. For your info, EAS is the one win first batch of rigs from keppel and jurong hand 1 to 2 years ago. Due to the stringent requirement, a lot of shipyards are not qualified and pull out their tender from Petrobras project(must build in brazil). Whoever is familiar with offshore rig building know that the Brazil ship building environment is not as easy as singapore, korea or china. Brazil government request high local content working in the shipyard but majority of the experience brazilian are employed by Oil & Gas operators like Petrobras, Seadrill, Transocean and etc. The manpower left over to shipyard is unskilled, therefore there are a lot of delay in the project. Keppel constantly relocate experience employees from singapore to Brazil to build up the ship over there. Jurong are doing the same to set up their new yard over there. If i am not wrong, the yard in Brazil is delayed. It is quite a difficult operation environment. May be I am wrong but just to post info here to share. Anyway, the shareholder will not be interested on this issue at this moments. Having contract is better than no contract is awarded. The vessel will start to deliver in 2015 till 2019, Jurong Brazil yard facility will be fully completed by 2nd half 2013. So the first rig may start to build after 2nd half 2013 which may take about 2 years construction time but engineering and procurement shall be started in 2012. So, have to wait till next year to know the impact. |
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rutheone1905
Veteran |
29-Aug-2012 14:49
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at times there will be ppl coming in to provide some info without proofs to substantiate, so be careful with this type of ppl.
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ozone2002
Supreme |
29-Aug-2012 14:10
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fundamentally strong!!!!!!!!
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krisluke
Supreme |
29-Aug-2012 13:58
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SembMarine
SembMarine: Secured a contract worth US$674m for construction of 8 modules and module integration works for 2 FPSOs from Tupi, a consortium owned by Petrobras Netherlands, BG Overseas Hldgs and Galp Energia. The projects are scheduled for completion in 60 mths and will be deployed in the Tupi field in Brazil. All the work will be done in co’s Brazil subsidiary Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz. The contract comes with an option to construct 4 modules and modules integration for a FPSO to be exercised within 18 mths of the contract signing. SembMarine has secured YTD orders of $9.2b DMG maintains Buy with TP$5.70. House is of view that spending for offshore projects will remain robust given Brent and WTI crude oil prices are above oil majors’ invt hurdle rate of US$75-80 per barrel OCBC maintains Buy with TP$6.09
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rutheone1905
Veteran |
29-Aug-2012 10:16
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khng, i love to long blues. ur claims below got any link for us to read further? cheers n thnks
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khng2012
Master |
29-Aug-2012 09:48
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Be alert that Korea shipyards who are the major deep water drill ship builder and jointed venture with brazilian has withdrawn their investment from Brazil. Furthermore, Petrobras financial is not strong and very heavy debt. Anything happen will drag sembmar and keppel to holland. |
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scage11
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29-Aug-2012 09:31
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-- SEMBCORP MARINE LTD - Singapore's Sembcorp Marine, the world's second-largest oil rig builder, said on Wednesday it won a contract worth $674 million to carry out work for two floating production storage and offloading vessels. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Aug-2012 13:19
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Singapore rigbuilders: Demand for deepwater oil rigs to stay buoyant for Keppel and SembMarine Shares of rigbuilder Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Industries — as well as its rig-building arm Sembcorp Marine (SembMarine) — have been on a tear following news that the yards had finally clinched record deals to make several deepwater drilling rigs for Petrobras, the national oil company of Brazil. On Aug 8, SembMarine announced that it had secured contracts from the Brazilians to design and build five ultradeepwater drillships capable of operating in water depths of 10,000ft and drilling to depths of 40,000ft for US$4.8 billion ($6 billion). That takes SembMarine’s drillship order count from Petrobras to six, including a contract clinched in February. The drillships will be delivered between 2Q2015 and 2Q2019. 
Credit: Bloomberg The drillship orders arrived just a day after fellow rigbuilder Keppel announced contracts from Petrobras to build five semi-submersible drilling rigs for work in water depths of up to 3,000m and drilling depths of 10,000m worth US$4.1 billion and scheduled for delivery until 3Q2019. In total, Keppel is now building six semi-submersibles for the Brazilians. On Aug 10, Keppel also announced a contract to build and install the topside modules for two floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels worth US$950 million to be deployed in Brazil. The slew of orders from Brazil comes about three years after Petrobras first initiated the tender process for 28 new and locally built deepwater rigs and could take the order books of the two rigbuilders to record highs this year. Indeed, Jason Saw, an analyst with DMG & Partners, estimates that Keppel and SembMarine currently boast net order books of $14 billion and $11.6 billion, respectively. TOO MUCH, TOO SOON? However, analysts warn that both stocks may have run up a bit too much in the short term. For one, “the exceptional orders won by the yards this year will be tough to sustain going forward”, says Janice Chua of DBS Vickers. Owing to the tougher operational environment in Brazil, she expects margins for the two yards to be lower than in previous years. In addition, the two local rigbuilders are not building as many deepwater drillships and rigs — which are in demand right now — as the South Koreans, who are the global leader in this area. “Demand for deepwater rigs is increasing on a worldwide basis,” says Rod Hutton, rig specialist at market intelligence firm IHS Petrodata. By year-end, only seven ultradeepwater rigs will be available and the number will only increase to 37 by 2014. “Deepwater activity remains very strong in West Africa and the US Gulf in addition to Brazil. [Meanwhile], smaller but still significant deepwater markets are building up in East Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, India and Australia,” he adds. Nevertheless, Hutton admits that Singapore remains the hub for jack-up rigs. Indeed, of the 95 jack-ups currently on order or under construction worldwide, almost half are being built by the Singapore yards. The order wins from Petrobras are also indicative of the advantage Keppel and Semb- Marine have over their competitors as a result of setting up their own yards in Brazil. More importantly, with Petrobras gunning to produce some 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 from two million bpd in 2011, Keppel and SembMarine are well positioned to win a significant proportion of work from the Brazilian company in the months to come. “The commitment of the Singapore yards to expanding to Brazil has been rewarded with mega orders from Petrobras,” writes Saw in an August report. Indeed, of the 47 shipyards with a licence to operate in Brazil, 11 are still under construction, while just a handful of the existing yards are capable of building rigs and production systems, according to Brazilian shipyard association Sinaval. As such, analysts are expecting orders for the additional rigs as well as rig repair and upgrading jobs to flow into Keppel’s and SembMarine’s yards in Brazil. Already, Petrobras is expecting some 38 production platforms — that is, large offshore rigs with facilities to drill for oil and temporarily store it — to come on stream during the period. “Brazil will become a significant builder of deepwater rigs in the next 10 years,” Hutton points out. Keppel established its yard in Angra dos Reis in 2000 and has enjoyed a steady flow of work from Petrobras and other oil companies operating in Brazil, including the upgrade of a drillship for Noble Energy as well as the building of the first semi-submersible for the Brazilians based on its own design. It is also developing a 7.6ha specialised yard in Navegantes, Santa Catarina. Meanwhile, SembMarine recently began operations at its partially completed 82.5ha yard in Aracruz, Espirito Santo, which is capable of undertaking the construction of drillships, semi-submersibles and jack-up rigs as well as topside modules for FPSO vessels. 
Image: Keppel established its yard in Angra dos Reis in 2000 and has enjoyed a steady flow of work from Petrobras and other companies. Credit: reuters Running a shipyard in Brazil is no easy feat. For one, about 65% of the employees hired by shipyards in Brazil must be locals to meet the country’s labour requirements. As a result, yard operators must invest time and money to train the workers. In addition, operating in Brazil involves higher supplychain costs and longer delivery times. That has deterred other rigbuilders from entering Brazil and eliminated much of the competition for Keppel and SembMarine in one of the world’s largest oil- producing regions. In March, for instance, South Korean shipyard Samsung Heavy Industries pulled out of a consortium that had been bidding for Petrobras’ drillship contracts, citing work delays faced by its partners. UPCYCLE TO CONTINUE Meanwhile, demand for rigs by oil companies operating in other oil producing regions in the world will likely increase, and analysts expect some of the orders to trickle into Singapore’s yards. On Aug 21, Keppel received an order by offshore accommodation operator Floatel International to build a new-generation harsh-environment-accommodation semi-submersible worth US$315 million. The contract comes after two previous orders to build similar semi submersibles for Floatel in 2010 and 2011. It also comes after Sembmarine announced a contract worth US$135 million from Diamond Offshore to rebuild a second-generation semi-submersible — its second contract win in two weeks. “While this is a relatively small contract for SembMarine’s $8.9 billion year-to-date order wins, we believe the contract is still incrementally positive for the company,” analysts at Barclays write. “There have been positive comments from the deepwater drillers over the US earnings season, suggesting that there is no more rig capacity available in 2012, and 2013 looks increasingly supply-constrained. We believe this could incentivise more drillers to pursue similar upgrades to have capacity available in 2014, which would support further orders for the rigbuilders such as SembMarine.” Other analysts agree that the stocks are in for more upside over the next 12 months. “Keppel is a safe bet for the long term, we believe, backed by a proven track record in Brazil,” write Lim Siew Khee and Yeo Zhi Bin of CIMB. Meanwhile, the analysts believe that availability at SembMarine’s new yards should enable it to lock in contracts at higher prices from “latecomers to the rig-building cycle”. They expect both yards to clinch an additional $2.5 billion of orders by year-end. Lim and Yeo have “buy” recommendations on the yards, and currently favour Keppel, “given its lagged year-to-date performance versus Sembcorp”. They have a price target of $14.80 for Keppel and $5.85 for SembMarine, representing upsides of up to 28.5% and 15%, respectively. DBS Vickers’ Chua expects margins to stabilise and eventually rise on the back of strong order momentum and the yards’ solid execution track record and market lead in the jackup and semi-submersible space. She has “buy” calls on both Keppel and SembMarine, with target valuations of $13.20 and $5.85 on the stocks, respectively. Saw of DMG also believes the two yards are still looking cheap. At their current levels, Keppel is trading at 11.4 times forward earnings and SembMarine, at 16.8 times forward earnings. “The valuations for Keppel and SembMarine are undemanding compared with historical valuations,” writes Saw. He points out that at their peak, the two yards had traded at 22 and 28 times forward earnings, respectively. Saw’s top pick is Keppel, with a target valuation of $13.80, representing an upside of about 20%. He also has “buy” calls on SembMarine and Sembcorp, with price targets of $5.70 and $6.28, representing upsides of 12% and 10%, respectively. |
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