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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Livermore
Master |
05-Jun-2007 21:46
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IPunter is right. Sometimes people "reassure" themselves that they are sitting on paper loss. Actual paper loss IS a loss |
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iPunter
Supreme |
05-Jun-2007 21:44
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[This post may not be relevant to "long-term investors"] |
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sojourner
Member |
05-Jun-2007 21:40
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Words of wisdom indeed. I admire the traders who will cut their losses without emotion. It's a numbers game afterall, and a matter of opportunity cost. Better to admit an error was made and move on, than to hold on and hope for a better turn! Of course if one is buying based on fundamentals and is willing to let the capital be locked up for a period of time, then by all means do so. |
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Livermore
Master |
05-Jun-2007 21:18
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Some people might fail to realise selling share A and using the capital from share A to buy share B is merely a transfer of capital.
Let's say you bought 30 lots of share A priced at 50c. For easy understanding we ignore brokerage fees. So you paid $15000 for share A. Let's suppose share A never move at all. If one week later, you sell 30 lots of share A at 50c and you use that $15000 to buy share B at 30c, you would be buying 50 lots of share B.
You can see that you are merely tranferring $15000 from share A to B. At any one time, the value of your particular share is the same whether the capital is in share A, B, C, D etc. It is just that your capital happens to be in A when you bought it.
If you have a share that is at some paper loss and you sell it and use the capital to buy share, B, C, D or whatever share, IT IS THE SAME. You have merely transferred your capital from one to another.
Thus, it makes sense to sell off your non performing shares and put in those with upside potential. You cut down on your loss faster that way. If you are holding on to too many shares, it is also better to consolidate to just a few.
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victorf
Master |
05-Jun-2007 21:12
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we believe that the market will start to creep up till 21st July after 2-3 weeks of uncertainty period (pausing) since 13th May - 31st May...so the month of June will resume its momentum to move up (so how can it pause when it starts to move)...good luck |
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iPunter
Supreme |
05-Jun-2007 18:02
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Yes... you are right.. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
05-Jun-2007 16:53
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Penny time... Signal of the entering of the ending stage of the rally before pausing a while for a correction? |
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iPunter
Supreme |
05-Jun-2007 14:52
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Why be dogmatic with a date?... :) |
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victorf
Master |
05-Jun-2007 14:49
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market will continue to creep up till 21st July...good luck :) |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
05-Jun-2007 12:22
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in the past STI often follow the path of Dow...then lately it is affected more from the regional side...correct me if I am wrong, but it seems that the rise and fall of STI seems to be in the footsteps of NIKKEI more or less |
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red1721
Senior |
05-Jun-2007 10:14
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as I had said in my previous post in this thread, market movements arent following historical records these days...it is changing to a new trend... |
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ed88ks
Senior |
04-Jun-2007 23:55
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This is the very first time in modern history that we've seen a prolonged worldwide interval of equity arbitrage. That's where you borrow money to buy equity, earning more from the equity than you owe in interest on the borrowed money. The arbitrage comes in three forms: corporations buying other corporations for cash, corporations buying some of their own shares for cash and private equity investors buying corporations using mostly borrowed money. The arbitrage has to do with the fact that the earnings yield on equities (earnings divided by price) is often more than the aftertax cost of money (which is, roughly, two-thirds of whatever your long-term interest rate is). Equity arbitrage has cropped up before, for fairly long stretches, in single countries. It has occurred globally, for example in 1974 and 1982, but only for a short while. What's unprecedented is the worldwide breadth of the phenomenon and its duration--55 months and counting. Far from being about to exhaust itself, the leveraged buyout/buyback binge is, I believe, accelerating. Why? Because it takes a while for corporate bosses to catch on. After a few years of seeing LBO-meisters get rich, they realize that they had better do some borrowing and buying of their own, or else someone else will do it to them. What does this mean to small investors? That you should own equities. The acceleration in buyouts and buybacks will keep creating a booming world stock market by shrinking the supply of equity while boosting earnings per share. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
04-Jun-2007 11:54
Yells: "hello!" |
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What is the significance of 21 July? Can share with me? |
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victorf
Master |
04-Jun-2007 11:47
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the uncertainty ends and market will continue to move up till 21st July...good luck |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
04-Jun-2007 11:25
Yells: "hello!" |
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Volume is low today.... |
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ed88ks
Senior |
04-Jun-2007 09:11
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The bottom line is that the present situation is very bullish for stocks, especially those that are relatively insensitive to interest rates and short-term rates in particular. This is not to say that the anticipation of increases in rate hikes will not provide speed bumps for the market, they will initially. Even the stock market will require time to adjust to the new mindset. Still, it will be hard for the Street to ignore the surge in corporate earnings that will vastly exceed all expectations through a combination of a relative increase in prices (technology prices will not fall as fast and other prices will rise faster) and an absolute increase in output. Both geopolitics and presidential politics may provide the stock market with additional turbulence along the way, but once inflationary psychology takes hold, it is almost impossible to shake. Is an inflationary boom a certainty? Of course not. Nothing is. Even a minor rumbling that the Fed is considering another rate cut is a sure sign that something is terribly wrong. Likewise, any consistent failure of the stock market to respond positively to good news, especially news concerning corporate earnings, should be taken as a major warning sign. Confirmation that the inflationary boom is underway should manifest itself in several forms. Announcements of price increases by manufacturers should become a common event. New car incentives should begin to disappear on many models. Business inventories should continue to rise. Retail sales should barrel along. Newspaper stories about inflation should start broadening from gasoline and commodity prices to prices of consumer goods. Of course, inflation is only a positive for the stock market up to a point. Indeed, the risk going forward is not that the Fed will apply the breaks too fast or too hard, but that inflation ultimately degenerates into stagflation. Once Time or Newsweek runs a cover story on inflation, you know it is time to look for your coat and start saying your goodbyes. When the Wall Street Journal and CNBC start to use the words "overheating" and "bottleneck," the host will be locking up the liquor cabinet. By the time "credit crunch" appears, your key should be in the ignition. And what comes after the party is over? Just about anything. It may be some time before the signs are as clear as they are now. |
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victorf
Master |
04-Jun-2007 09:03
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market shoud creep up till 21st July...do not expect a BIG drop short term...good luck trading :) |
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cashiertan
Elite |
02-Jun-2007 22:10
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REst Well Ppl. Next week we got tons of Cash to make? 
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ed88ks
Senior |
02-Jun-2007 21:40
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The Consequences of Asia Risingby Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D. Posted on Tuesday, May 29, 2007, 12:00AM
During the past two weeks I toured Southeast Asia, visiting Bangkok, Cambodia, Singapore, Bali, and Hong Kong. In those two weeks the news media reported these headlines: Virtually everyone I met said their economy was strong and the future looked bright. Tourism is up and each country is competing for the tourist dollar. Singapore trumpets their ?Integrated Resorts,? a euphemism for casinos, but actually a well-planned commercial, residential, and green development that is designed to attract international tourists. ?We plan to light all Singapore?s buildings to make an exciting skyline,? reads a brochure of Singapore. But Hong Kong is not standing still, as anyone can see from the explosive development of casinos in Macao. This economic strength begets new confidence and some new concerns. Asian policymakers worry about their currencies becoming too strong relative to the dollar, a far cry from the collapsing currencies that devastated Asia a decade ago. I felt Hong Kong was experiencing a renaissance. The former British colony is approaching the tenth anniversary of the ?handover,? as the once-feared transfer to Chinese control was called. This transfer created a Special Administrative Region that is meant to preserve much of the Hong Kong?s independence for fifty years. Although doubts were high in 1997, there is a universal feeling that this arrangement has gone better than expected. The last ten years, however, have not been easy for Hong Kong. After the 1997 handover, the real estate market collapsed then the world-wide bear market caused more pain to the economy. A particularly trying period was the SARS epidemic that almost caused the island to grind to a halt. I was told that at the peak of the crisis there was only one guest in the entire Peninsula Hotel, one of the city?s oldest and most venerable establishments. Arriving at Hong Kong's airport, one still passes by a fever detector, but the disease is no longer feared. When the SARS epidemic subsided in 2004, both the economy and the stock market recovered and have continued upward. Convergence of Values One of the reasons for Asia's economic growth is a consensus that the private sector does the best job at not only providing goods and services but also employment for the millions of job seekers that are moving into the urban centers. Certainly there is far more government planning in a country such as Singapore than in the U.S. But nowhere did I see a move towards government ownership of the means of production ? a critical feature of the socialist and communist models that dominated most of the world (including quite a bit of Europe) a generation ago. And there is a growing consensus about what constitutes a healthful environment. Ten years ago, I flew business class on China Airlines and suffocated from the cigarette smoke. Now all airlines ? and most restaurants ? are smoke free in Asia. Who would have thought a few short years ago that the airport in Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital that was our transit point between Angkor Wat and Singapore, would be a no smoking airport? And encouraging better health means more than curbing smoking. Can you imagine a decade ago seeing a huge Cancer Awareness Exhibit in Singapore?s Raffles City Center mall that finds enthusiastic, young volunteers handing out free loaves of whole wheat bread to those waiting in line to sign up for a free colorectal screenings? Furthermore, environmental awareness is very popular. Singapore boasts that its new concert hall at the Esplanade on Singapore Bay has a specially pointed roof that moves with the sun to minimize the heat that is absorbed. And Hong Kong residents openly talk about how pollution must be controlled since it?s hurting their ability to attract top talent. Diminished Influence of U.S. and Japan During my trip I also felt that the U.S. economy was losing its importance to the region. The world economic engine is now strong enough to make it on its own without help from the U.S. consumer. The U.S. is still viewed by Asians as first in higher education and this year?s Wharton student body hails from more than 70 different countries. But the big change from a decade ago is that these students are returning to their native countries after their education and not remaining in the U.S. There are two major reasons for this. The first, and most important, is the obvious growth of opportunities in their homelands. But another is the difficulty in obtaining working permits in the U.S. This is leading many to seek higher education elsewhere. I wonder whether the U.S. can stay number one in this area in these circumstances. It may only be a matter of time before these developing countries develop world-class educational institutions of their own. If they do, becoming educated abroad will not have the same importance. The U.S. must continue to be a player in the world pool for top talent or we will suffer from a reverse brain drain that will deplete one of our most important advantages. Although my trip did not take me to Japan, I felt that Asia?s richest country is also losing influence. On May 24th, the day I flew to Hong Kong, The International Herald Tribune featured a story titled ?Japan losing Engineers, and perhaps its Edge,? and on the same day, The Asian Wall Street Journal wrote an article entitled, ?Why Japan's stock market is unlikely to join global party.? The first article spoke of firms in developing countries raiding the top engineers from Japanese firms who felt suffocated by the corporate culture and the inability to capitalize from their own inventions. The second highlighted the low level of merger and acquisition activity in Japan compared to other countries. One of the reasons is that Japanese management puts up so many defenses that private capital does not find it worth the effort. All of this is a recipe for economic stagnation. Conclusion Perhaps the most important lesson to be learned from the Asian experience is that economic growth is not a zero sum game where the winners take jobs and opportunities away from the losers. The growth of China, India, and Indonesia is helping all the countries in Southeast Asia. Singapore gets more shoppers from neighboring countries and Hong Kong believes it will remain the financial capital for a burgeoning China since its open and transparent markets can attract more investors. Similarly the U.S. has much to gain from the growth in Asia. Brand names are very important to the Asians and the consumer market in these developing countries is just opening up. If we shut ourselves off from developments abroad, we will be the major ones to suffer. Opportunities abound in these developing markets. You can be sure that if the U.S. does not catch them, others most certainly will. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
02-Jun-2007 21:17
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Yes... :) |
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