Today I will argue the case for Commodities to Crash. The signs for this crash are more prominent in Grains and Soft Commodities (which also mean that they have crashed already) than Gold or Oil (which mean that when these crash, the gains on shorting them would be substantial). The base commodities, even though they may be supported by infrastructure spending in China and the Middle East or the rising economies of South America and Turkey, should fall in tandem at least for the early part of the Gold Crash. The fundamental basis for my analysis is money supply. Grains moved way above the money line but crashed back to touch this line last week. Soft commodities also touched the money line last week. Oil surged away from the money line since $55 in Jan07. Gold surged away from the money line since $665 in Jul07. Oil and Gold may touch these numbers again if they revisit their respective money lines. The Toronto Stock Exchange has been a proxy for Oil and Gold plays for many. A look at its Bullish Percent Index can lead one to conclude that a similar rectangle is building since Dec07 of ≤40%. In the bear days for commodities, there was also a rectangle below the 35% until 2001. For the gold-bugs and those on the Jim Rogers trail, I am of the opinion that you should take profit on your hard-earned Commodities (Gold-which we first recommended back in early 2003; Grains and Softswhich we strongly recommended at the start of 2007). Let.s come back later to play these again. For now, let.s appreciate the beauty of the US Dollar and its expanding triangle break-out. 

wake up and log in and see... WOW night mare man.... tot i was going to dream of .98??? hahaha now .88 BLUR man.... dunno y? must be BBs  can't win them all....

cheers

jasonrxz      ( Date: 01-Apr-2008 23:59) Posted: the oil price has retreat but not the index and now we are playing with stocks not oil though they are in palm oil industry... but who cares when the dow JONES is now +260..... so just go sleep and dream of it like me to be 0.98 once it start though it's impossible but how about aroung 1030hrs after HSI open with maybe 600 pts uptrend??? never know the potential too here.... cheers   ok.. need to go and dream of .98 liao,... sweet dreams to others.... jasonrxz      ( Date: 01-Apr-2008 17:09) Posted: Roger that.... Will keep it under my pillow and dream of it to 0.98 tomolo... hahha..... have a nice day to u Bro Hotstock,...   cheers

the oil price has retreat but not the index and now we are playing with stocks not oil though they are in palm oil industry... but who cares when the dow JONES is now +260..... so just go sleep and dream of it like me to be 0.98 once it start though it's impossible but how about aroung 1030hrs after HSI open with maybe 600 pts uptrend??? never know the potential too here.... cheers

ok.. need to go and dream of .98 liao,... sweet dreams to others....

jasonrxz      ( Date: 01-Apr-2008 17:09) Posted: Roger that.... Will keep it under my pillow and dream of it to 0.98 tomolo... hahha..... have a nice day to u Bro Hotstock,...   cheers