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Pinnacle
Master |
08-Oct-2007 09:40
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Immediate outlook: The Straits Times Index?s (STI) recorded another new all time high of 3,851.88 (intra-day) last Wednesday before ending the week marginally lower at 3,822.62. The index was up 116pts or 3.1% higher week-on-week. Since it broke the 3,688 high the previous week, we have changed our bearish view to a bullish one. For the upcoming week, the STI is expected to continue to nudge higher, breaching the 3,850 resistance, to 3,900-3,960 before some profit taking set in. Indicators are still supportive of our view. The only risk to our view is that the RSI has reached overbought levels. A pullback from the 3,900-3,960 resistance cannot be discounted. Medium-term outlook (2-6 months): The index is still looking positive over the mediumterm, as the long-term uptrend channel is intact. From the chart below, we can see that the index fell back into the LT middle band resistance turned support in Aug but the bulls managed to repel the bears? advances. The index is likely now attempting to take out its LT channel resistance at 3,780-3,850. A breakout could send the index towards the 4,015- 4,226. The strong support for the index can now be found around the 3,480 support followed by 3,250. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
08-Oct-2007 09:29
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While the performance of the STI this week will again mirror that of Wall Street and hat of major Asian bourses, China plays and those many stocks that have been added, moved or removed from the various STI and FTSE ST indices may grab centre stage at the start of the week. The very strong close over at Wall Street last Friday on the back of the positive September employment report should give the STI another strong start on Monday. Further boost to the STI may come from the local macro news front when the advance 3Q07 GDP and the latest monetary statement will be released (Wednesday morning). The consensus is a 9% yoy growth but we estimate that a 10% yoy rise is quite do-able. If so, GDP growth this year could exceed 8%, vs. our current estimate of 7.5% (We think 8.7% GDP growth this year is quite do-able). As growth this year is likely to exceed the higher end of the government?s 7-8% forecast, we expect the MAS to maintain its policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of its S$ nominal effective exchange rate band. The very positive 3Q GDP report should be supportive of the current bullish market sentiment. But at the end of the day, it is still going to be about US and regional equities for S?pore equities. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
08-Oct-2007 09:26
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The benchmark STI has been revamped and the new STI will be launched in January 2008. The new STI will have 30 stocks down from the current 48. There are 4 new additions (ST Engineering, Wilmar, Yangzijiang & Yanlord) to the main STI while 17 are moved to the new mid-cap index (including Venture, SingPost and M1). Three (Creative, Datacraft & Jurong Tech) are moved to the small cap index while two (Jardine Matheson & TAC) are dropped. There will also be a China index with 50 stocks (out of a current 130+ currently listed on the SGX). |
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Pinnacle
Master |
08-Oct-2007 09:10
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Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.STI> rose 1.3 percent in opening trade on Monday to a new all-time high of 3,871.87 points, led by gains in Singapore Exchange |
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Pinnacle
Master |
08-Oct-2007 08:25
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Oct 8 (Reuters) - Asian stocks looked set to open higher on Monday after regional shares listed on Wall Street <.BKAS> rose nearly 2 percent to a record closing high, boosted by a solid U.S. jobs report.
The influential non-farm payrolls report released last Friday showed U.S. employers added 110,000 jobs in September and August's job losses were revised to a gain, helping lift worries about a U.S. recession in the near term. [ID:nN05214905] Among the gainers were major Asian exporters such as contract chip maker TSMC The employment report also drove the blue-chip Dow <.DJI> and wider S&P 500 index <.SPX> to all-time intraday highs on Friday. Last week, MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> climbed 2.5 percent, posting its seventh straight weekly gain. It set a record high on Oct 3. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
08-Oct-2007 08:08
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Oct 7 (Reuters) - Investors are likely to turn increasingly cautious after having pushed Asian stocks to fresh peaks for a third straight week, but the underlying tone remains firm thanks to diminishing worries about a global credit squeeze.
Markets will take their cues from profit reports as major firms such as Samsung Electronics <005930.KS>, the world's top memory chip maker, Infosys Technologies Financial markets in mainland China resume trading after a week-long break for the National Day holidays. Given strong regional economic growth and valuations that are still reasonable, albeit no longer cheap, analysts say the outlook for Asia remains generally positive. Taiwan, for example, is particularly attractive compared with its Asian and global peers, some market players say. It is a "market which I continue to think is undervalued and shows the world's highest earnings per share growth this year," said Burkhard Varnholt, chief investment officer at Swiss asset manager Bank Sarasin MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> has risen in the past seven weeks, reaching successive record highs in the last three. It has rallied more than 30 percent from the August low after interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve helped soothe fears of a global credit shortage stemming from the U.S. subprime mortgage market crisis. The Dow <.DJI> and S&P 500 <.SPX> surged to all-time intraday highs on Friday after a solid employment report rekindled optimism about the health of the U.S. economy and corporate profits The U.S. economy added more jobs in September than economists had expected, while an earlier estimate of job losses in August was revised to gains, quashing fears of recession. -- FACTORS TO WATCH (FOR WEEK STARTING OCT. 8) ** For Asian company earnings, see [ASIA/EQTY] ** Key U.S. earnings/data (for Wall Street report, see [.N]) Monday - Bond Markets closed, Columbus Day holiday - Earnings: Yum Brands Q3 "There are some U.S. banks which have not revealed the subprime impact on their earnings numbers and there may be some kind of news next week. That will have an impact on the Japanese market," he said. Monji also said the market will keep a close eye on an initial public offering from Sony Corp's <6758.T> financial unit. He expects the Nikkei <.N225> to move between 16,500 and 17,500. Monday - Markets closed, national holiday Wednesday - Two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting starts Thursday - August machinery orders data - Bank of Japan interest rate decision and Governor Toshihiko Fukui news conference - Sony Corp <6758.T> financial unit lists -- ** IN KOREA (for Seoul report, see [.KS]) The benchmark KOSPI is expected to continue to trade around the 2,000 level without clear direction with investors seen reluctant to make big bets ahead of quarterly earnings from major companies such as Samsung Electronics. "Company earnings are a key for market direction. They will justify the recent gains in the market," said Oh Hyun-seok, an analyst at Samsung Securities. "But I think the KOSPI will finally stay above the 2,000 level." Tuesday - LG.Philips <034220.KS> Q3 earnings - Sept consumer expectation index, 0430 GMT Thursday - Bank of Korea monthly rate-setting meeting, result around 0200 GMT Friday - Samsung Electronics <005930.KS)> Q3 earnings -- ** IN HONG KONG (for Hong Kong report, see [.HK]) Investors will be eyeing the mainland equity market when China re-opens for business after a week-long holiday as well as a spate of new issues debuting in the new week, with many expecting appetite to stay robust. "These IPOs are going to gain on their debut, especially the blockbusters like Xindin Mining," said Jackson Wong, investment manager at Tanrich Securities. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
05-Oct-2007 11:21
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Citigroup Global Markets Most Asian markets rebounded strongly from August lows; only Thailand and the Philippines have yet to recoup their losses. Model Performance ? The Glamour quadrant outperformed, rising 4% on average, while Contrarian stocks (cheap but with low momentum) performed poorly, returning only 2%. The Attractive/Unattractive spread, our preferred measure of performance, was negative: coincidentally, for the first time since Sept 2006. Top Markets ? Hong Kong leapfrogged China (#2) and Singapore (#3) to take the top position, while Malaysia slipped to 5th, overtaken by Australia (#4), mainly due to the latter's strongly improved momentum. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
05-Oct-2007 08:56
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On Thursday, the Straits Times Index (STI) rose by 29.19 points to 3,783.81. There were 454 gainers compared to 350 losers while 832 stocks were unchanged. Total volume traded was 3.77 billion shares worth S$2.74 billion. |
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soloman
Master |
04-Oct-2007 19:16
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From the look of things those who shorted probably died today The China trend is reversing by the day - to 9 Oct |
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mirage
Veteran |
04-Oct-2007 18:20
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Quotes: Singapore shares closed higher Thursday as investors shrugged aside concerns about the US economy and bought into select blue chips such as Singapore Airlines (SIA) and property heavyweights. Gains in construction stocks also supported the index. DMG & Partners Securities head of research for retail, Terence Wong, said the market is holding up well given Singapore's firm fundamentals. "The economy is very strong in the short and mid-term. Domestically we are firing on all cylinders," Wong said. He said property and construction activities will continue to support growth, with the oil and gas sector also doing well. The Straits Times Index (STI) closed up 29.19 points or 0.8 percent at 3,783.81, after trading between 3,742.44 and 3,783.81. Gainers beat losers 460 to 361, with 864 shares unchanged. Volume traded was 3.8 billion shares worth 2.7 billion Singapore dollars. But Wong urged investors to tread cautiously with the STI's valuations, higher than what has been seen in the last five years, at over 18 times PE. UOB Kay Hian expects the index to head higher with banking, offshore & marine stocks and China stocks expected to outperform in October. "However, the risk/reward profile should be less attractive and investors should consider switching into defensive stocks," the brokerage said in a note. SIA gained 50 Singapore cents to 19.50 dollars following news that Singapore has signed an open skies agreement with the UK that will remove all restrictions on air services operated by carriers of both countries. Under the deal, Singapore and UK carriers are allowed to operate unlimited flights between the two countries and fly onwards to other destinations. Kim Eng Securities said the deal is highly positive for SIA, which may now use London's Heathrow as a waypoint for its transatlantic route to the US East Coast. Among other blue-chip gainers, Singapore Telecommunications was up 12 cents at 3.98 dollars, ST Engineering was up 6 cents at 3.90 dollars and Singapore Press Holdings was up 2 cents at 4.34 dollars. Property heavyweights were also higher on expectations of healthy property price growth and strong broad-based demand over the next few years. City Developments rose 30 cents to 16.60 dollars, CapitaLand climbed 10 cents to 8.35 dollars, and Keppel Land added 10 cents to 8.65 dollars. Banks were mostly higher on expectations they will see double-digit loan growth going forward amid a booming economy. DBS Group added 20 cents to 22.40 dollars, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp gained 15 cents to 9.20 dollars, while United Overseas Bank was unchanged at 22.40 dollars. Construction stocks also supported the index with the industry's uptrend expected to continue amid sustained economic growth. Goldman Sachs said it expects a re-rating on the Singapore construction sector "on increased visibility in cycle strength and sustainability, and positive newsflow on contract awards." Among construction stocks that were actively traded, Lian Beng was up 7.5 cents at 59 cents, Yongnam added 2.5 cents to 46.5 cents, CSC Holdings was up 1.5 cents at 37 cents and Chip Eng Seng rose 2 cents to 82.5 cents. Bourse operator Singapore Exchange succumbed to profit-taking following a sharp run-up in its share price in recent days, on continued speculation it will be involved in some kind of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the near term. SGX fell 40 cents to 14.80 dollars. Select offshore and marine-related stocks were also hurt by profit-taking. COSCO Corp Singapore was down 10 cents at 6.50 dollars, SembCorp Marine was down 15 cents at 5.25 dollars, and SembCorp Industries was down 5 cents at 6.40 dollars. Shipping company STX pan Ocean fell 19 cents to 2.95 dollars. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
04-Oct-2007 16:59
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Today's movement is not for the faint hearted. Went up and down so many times. What's happening? Getting so choppy and volatile within a day!!! |
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s100125
Senior |
04-Oct-2007 15:54
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Hang Seng Index is very negative now. Another heavy sell off |
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Pinnacle
Master |
04-Oct-2007 13:24
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CLSA - Show us the money After two days of strong rallies, Singapore-listed China plays closed mixed yesterday. What is behind the the surge? S-chips are seen as next in line to benefit from QDIIs after Hong Kong. We believe the QDII funds have yet to arrive, and that the surge was driven by speculators or retail investors buying ahead. This can be seen from the indiscriminate buying across the board, even of less popular names, as well as companies with lower growth or high operational risks. Get set for consolidation. We expect consolidation in the near term, given that the current high valuations are difficult to justify as entry points, Chinese money or otherwise. Investors could look or larger companies among the H-shares, except shipbuilders. When the speculation dust settles, a few S-Chips will stand out as serious targets for qualified institutional investors (QDII) scheme funds. We believe companies with recognisable consumer brands, water companies, shipbuilders and those affiliated to strong Chinese companies will be the first QDII beneficiaries. Market perceptions of low liquidity and the quality of S-Chips can explain the high beta, newsflow and sentiment-driven trades these stocks usually attract, but there are some quality names that stand out, even over and above some non-S-chips. A perfect example is Cosco (COS SP - S$6.70 - N-R), which enjoyed a halo effect from a share-price surge of its parent, Cosco Holdings (1919 HK - HK$24.80 - N-R). Domestic names may benefit. We have seen strong moves in large liquid names such as Cosco, Yanlord (YLLG SP - S$4.08 - NR), Synear Food (SYNF SP - S$2.31 - BUY), Yangzijiang (YZJ SP- S$2.55 - NR) and China Hongxing (CHHS SP - S$1.13 - NR), but QDII flows are expected to narrow the discount to Hshares going forward. We expect narrow or no discount to Hshares for some of these market leaders, but this will not happen sector-wide. We believe that that the smaller universe and fewer stocks in various industries are the key reasons for the S-chip discount to H-shares, but the top names have always stood out, with higher valuations. QDII is giving Chinese funds an opportunity to diversify, and they may invest in strong Singapore companies, especially those involved in the offshore, marine, banking and aviation sectors. Unsustainable levels. Our top S-chip picks remain Synear Food and China Milk (CMILK SP - S$1.48 - BUY). China Milk's husbandry business remains fundamentally sound (although concerns exist about its dairy-processing contract, which was due to begin in November). Synear traded 40% up in the past three trading days, but the continuous downward trend of pork prices (although only 15% of Cogs) has cleared up concerns and reaffirms the strong story. In view of the volatile market, we suggest buying into weakness rather than selling into strength when consolidation occurs. We are not as positive on Pine Agritech (PAG SP - S$0.55 - O-PF) and Celestial NutriFoods (CENU SP - S$1.54 - O-PF) on the back of weekly record highs in soybean prices, although our Outperform calls on the two stocks were on the basis of them being oversold, despite positive growth and profitable businesses. We will review our numbers. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
04-Oct-2007 10:32
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What a huge yoyo swing... drastic up and down of the index. Not for the faint hearted. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
04-Oct-2007 09:54
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Asian stocks were dragged lower on Thursday by losses in the chip sector after a negative report on Intel Corp Stock markets in Tokyo, Seoul, Sydney and Taipei posted falls of roughly 0.5 percent in early trade. Several benchmarks across the region have notched up record highs this week. The firmer dollar hit gold, which retreated further from its recent 28-year high, and a surprise rise in crude stockpiles sent oil below $80 a barrel, which in turn weighed on energy companies like Australia's Woodside Petroleum Ltd A cooling of the commodity price rally dented shares in miners BHP Billiton Ltd "The miners aren't as popular this week, considering they had such a big run-up last week," said Juliette Saly, a market analyst at CommSec. On Wednesday a report on the U.S. service sector and another on private-sector payrolls indicated modest growth in the labour market last month, bolstering hopes the housing market troubles had not yet dragged down other parts of the U.S. economy. Even so, investors were cautious ahead of Friday's U.S. payrolls data for September. On Wall Street both the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 0.6 percent. Chip-related shares were among the biggest fallers in Asia, taking their cue from a drop in U.S. giant Intel Corp. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the chip maker with an "underweight" rating, saying it expected an inventory correction and a price war. Japan's Nikkei <.N225> was down 0.5 percent by 0107 GMT, with chip maker Advantest <6857.T> off 1.4 percent. In Seoul the benchmark KOSPI fell 0.7 percent from a record closing high hit on Tuesday before a national holiday. It was pulled down by a drop in Samsung Electronics <005930.KS> as a quarterly loss from U.S. rival Micron Technology PAYROLLS IN FOCUS The dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 78.617 on an index <.DXY> that measures its value against a basket of six major currencies. The index struck a record low of 77.660 on Monday. "Investors expect the dollar to extend gains against the euro if Friday's non-farm payrolls report shows a fair reading," said Hideki Amikura, a currency manager at Nomura Trust and Banking. "It is quite possible to see a counter-reaction to recent sharp losses in the dollar," Amikura said. The euro The U.S. employment data remains the main focus in the market, but investors will also be watching a European Central Bank policy meeting later in the day. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 4 percent. U.S. crude |
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Pinnacle
Master |
04-Oct-2007 08:56
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On Wednesday, the Straits Times Index (STI) fell by 39.21 points to 3,754.62. Blue chips, led by banking and property stocks, dropped on profit taking after recent gains. There were 251 gainers compared to 684 losers while 693 stocks were unchanged. Total volume traded was 3.31 billion shares worth S$3.69 billion. |
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timewatch
Senior |
03-Oct-2007 20:54
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i think when everybody says correction coming it actully does not come, and when every one quite it happens, it comes very quietly like a tsunami, every wave that follows up is more stronger, so i guess every one of us got to be careful,-get your profits and wait.This is just what i feel. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
03-Oct-2007 18:25
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Singapore and Indonesian stock markets closed lower on Wednesday as investors cashed in after their record-breaking run, but Philippine shares rose on hopes the central bank may cut interest rates.
Singapore's Straits Times Index <.STI> fell 1 percent after hitting a record high for the fifth straight day as banks, which had led earlier gains, retreated. Indonesia's benchmark index <.JKSE> fell 0.5 percent, easing from an all-time high of 2,498.79 points set earlier in the day. The Philippine index <.PSI> advanced 2.5 percent and Vietnam shares <.VNI> gained 0.7 percent, but Malaysian stocks <.KLSE> fell 0.1 percent. By 0920 GMT, Thai stocks <.SETI> were down 0.2 percent. "It's very overbought right now, technically. Generally, if you look at most of the markets, they are back to the same levels as before the sell-down in August," said Alan Richardson, who manages $350 million in Southeast Asian portfolio at Allianz Dresdner Asset Management. "But I still think the trend will be up over the next few months. In the short term, I think Malaysia and Philippines have been lagging more than the other markets. So they are likely to play catch-up," Richardson said. Gains in Manila were led by conglomerate Ayala Corp Investors were betting that Philippine central bank may cut its key overnight borrowing rate during its policy review on Thursday. [ID:nMAN294052] In Singapore, Southeast Asia's largest lender DBS Group But Singapore Exchange In Indonesia, the country's largest automotive distributor, PT Astra International Tbk Astra, through its unit PT Toyota Astra Motor, distributes Toyota vehicles -- the most popular vehicle brand in Indonesia, with around 34 percent of new car sales. [ID:nJK293336 ] In Thailand, ACL Bank Tata Steel (Thailand) |
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galgal
Member |
03-Oct-2007 17:36
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Hi All Are we expecting another correction??? Will appreciate your advise |
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mirage
Veteran |
03-Oct-2007 17:32
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The newly-launched China Investment Corp (CIC), which is tasked with investing 200 billion US dollars or one-sixth of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves, could invest in companies linked to Temasek Holdings, Singapore's state-linked investment company, Credit Suisse said Wednesday. "With Temasek actively investing in China in recent years, we believe that Temasek would welcome its Chinese peers to take strategic stakes in Temasek-linked companies," Credit Suisse research head Sean Quek said in a note to clients. But CIC is expected to be a passive investor, taking relatively small stakes of between 5 and 10 percent, because of the inherent political sensitivity of the company itself, the brokerage said. "We would rule out of the possibility of CIC investing directly in companies with national security implications for Singapore," Quek said. These include defence and aerospace engineering contractor ST Engineering and media company Singapore Press Holdings. Singapore Airlines is a likely acquisition target by CIC, Quek said. It is particularly interesting considering that Beijing had backed the joint bid by SIA and Temasek to buy a combined 24 percent stake in China Eastern Airlines, the mainland's third-largest airline, for 923 million US dollars. Bourse operator Singapore Exchange is an equally interesting acquisition for CIC. "SGX, like the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, could offer CIC an interesting exposure to the financial market developments in one of the major financial centres in Asia," Quek said. Singapore Telecommunications Ltd is another target for CIC given that it's the biggest telecommunications company in Southeast Asia with strategic stakes in mobile phone companies in India, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. It also owns Optus in Australia. DBS Group, the largest bank in Singapore and Southeast Asia and the fifth largest in Hong Kong, is another potential target, Quek said. Other targets may include shipyard operator SembCorp Marine and its parent SembCorp Industries as well as container shipping company Neptune Orient Lines. |
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