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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Eldarchen
Member |
04-Jan-2008 22:20
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eh think u see wronly its down 120+ not up 21 but i still hope it close +200 tonight as investors buy in anticipation of the rate cut | |||||
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marketcrash
Member |
04-Jan-2008 22:17
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Please, future now is +21. I wish future closed positive tonight. | |||||
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lap1981
Member |
04-Jan-2008 21:54
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dj futures down 100. black friday | |||||
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huatah
Veteran |
04-Jan-2008 14:48
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hopefully.. but cant doubtful.. profit-taking on de way.. . | |||||
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
04-Jan-2008 14:04
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x 0
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it will be good to stay above 3425 today...today looking at intra-day...breaking up the 3401 was good...gapping upwards | |||||
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paperless
Senior |
04-Jan-2008 11:52
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香港11月零售额升幅创9个月新高2008/01/04 08:02
香 港政府周四公布，因薪酬增加，同时本地居民及赴港游客的消费支出强劲，香港2007年11月份的零售额升幅创9个月来的最高水平。香港政府与经济学家均表示，鉴于香港及中国大陆的经济强劲、港元走软以及赴港游客消费增加，今年上半年香港零售额的上升势头可能将保持强劲。 香港政府在公告中称，强劲的消费者信心以及蓬勃发展的香港旅游业有望支持香港零售业继续向好。 香港11月份的零售额较上年同期上升19.5%，至203亿港元（合26亿美元）。11月份的升幅高于16.8%的10月份修正后升幅，也高于此前接受道琼斯调查的5位经济学家的预期中值17.0%。香港11月份的零售额升幅为自3月以来的最高水平，香港3月份的零售额升幅为5.0%。 经价格因素调整后，香港11月份的零售量较上年同期上升15.3%，高于13.1%的10月份修正后升幅，也高于接受调查的经济学家的预期中值13.2%。 香港政府一位未具名的发言人在公告中称，在劳动市场趋紧、劳工收入上升和利率较低的环境下，消费意欲旺盛；同时，11月份访港旅游业显著增长也是促进零售额上升的重要因素。 诸如汽车等耐用品的零售量较上年同期大幅上升41%，电器及摄影器材的销售量较上年同期上升约31%。 香港2007年前11个月的零售额与零售量分别较上年同期上升12.4%和9.9%。 渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)经济学家Frances Cheung预计，受赴港游客不断涌入以及圣诞节相关支出的推动，香港12月份的零售额将进一步攀升。 Cheung称，他们预计，由于 逢圣诞节且零售市场颇为兴旺，香港12月份的零售额升幅将保持在18%-20%的高水平。 港元兑多种主要货币及人民币下挫，从而吸引了更多游客赴港旅游。赴港游客的消费支出约占香港本地销售额的20%。 摩根大通(JPMorgan)的经济学家王黔称，2008年香港将继续从中国大陆的经济增长中受益，香港的本地需求将是主要的经济增长动力。 |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
04-Jan-2008 08:54
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nikkei down 3.28% WOohoo..! STI to follow suit..time to bargain hunt.. |
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Manikamaniho
Senior |
04-Jan-2008 06:46
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Selected stocks showing technical promise should be bought and held for as long as it is technically 'safe'... 
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
04-Jan-2008 00:39
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
the blind leading the blind...when ppl throw their shares...ppl often follow suit...vice versa...going with the flow | |||||
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teeth53
Supreme |
03-Jan-2008 23:49
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
STI index is just following DOW....heavy fall.
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Livermore
Master |
02-Jan-2008 22:51
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It is important to focus on the stocks you buy. Certain things remain the same - Oil and oil related companies, some China companies, stock exposed to commodities should all continue to do well. It is about being focussed. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
02-Jan-2008 21:58
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Farmer
Master |
02-Jan-2008 17:50
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Courtesy of AmFraser. DAILY REVIEW Wednesday, January 02, 2008 MARKET VIEW - SINGAPORE MARKET Market rallies likely to be short-lived in the run-up to the earnings reporting season from month-end till February with STI (3460 at noon today) capped at 3550-3600 and support around 3300-3350 After seeing unsustainable rallies for most of the 4th quarter, investor psychology is now more acceptable of a downward trending or sideways drifting market in the coming few weeks. Unless of course hedge and sovereign fund managers make a beeline for equities in the next few days to reverse the downbeat sentiments and bring back the bullish spirits. But even then, many investors and traders are likely to capitalise on rallies to trim positions and to cut losses. Fund managers too are unlikely to go all out to lift the new STI being launched next week to the 3600 resistance area let alone the 3800-3900 peaks of early October anytime soon, certainly not in this quarter where confidence remains shaky amid the unsettling US housing sector and the fast slowing US economy. With the Singapore economy having slowed down to a 6% annual growth rate in 4q07 year-on-year from 9% in 3q07, corporate earnings growth could have also started to slow last quarter. Chances of a quick pick up in earnings growth this current quarter are not good and this will impact stock prices which will be influenced by institutional perception of earnings potential in 2008. The 4q and full year 2007 reports may begin to be discounted before they kick in at end-January but the extent of market falls are still hard to quantify depending on liquidity flows in a weak market and Fed?s moves on interest rates at its Jan 29-30 FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, US and local stocks are not expected to plunge to the 25500-27000 support on the Dow Jones and the STI to below the current 3300 support but if they do the Fed may have to be more aggressive in its rate cuts perhaps by 50bp to 3.75%. That possibility hinges on 4q07 US GDP growth especially if it falls below 1%. A rally may develop ahead of the FOMC meeting in anticipation of a bold Fed funds rate cut in which case we may see the Dow back to its 35000-37000 resistance and the STI to 3550-3600. What happens after the FOMC meeting is more critical to evaluate even at this early stage especially if investors rightly or wrongly perceive that the series of rate cuts has not had much positive impact on US economy and earnings growth. This could set the stage for a more volatile February and thus investors? continued cautious approach is called for. We advise cautious buying of blue chips in the leading sectors ie banks, properties, offshore/conglomerates and telecoms on rocky market days for traders with a 3-5 weeks? view and close monitoring of market conditions to see any major shift of investor sentiment for the worse taking place. Traders should be satisfied with a 5 to 10% trading gains and avoid getting trapped by buying aggressively during rallies as there are still no definitive signs that the closer gaps between correction phases seen in the second half of 2007 are about to end now. We have seen the STI plunging nearly 20% in July-August and again by 15% in November. After a short 2 week really at end-Nov into early Dec from 3306 to 3622, the index again fell this time by 9% back to 3300 on Dec 18. Although it has recovered to nearly 3500 (3491 on Dec 27 and 3482 on Dec 31) it is only up 16.6% yoy, not a particularly spectacular performance for a year that saw new monthly peaks on the STI for 8 out of 12 months with a 31% year to date gain at the highest point of 3906 on Oct 10 against 2986 at end-2006. The near record trading range of about 1000 points from lows of 2932/2962 in early March and mid-August to 3906 has the unfavourable effect of increasing volatility on the downside. The worst was in August from the mid-July 3689 high to an intra-day low of 2962 on Aug 17, down 19.7%, just short of the above 20% mark which conventional wisdom suggests to signal the start of a bear market. Having ended 2007 at 3482, a 20% fall would take the STI to 2787, which is not conceivable at this stage but market players are used to 10-15% corrections and the strategy of buying during sharp downturns is likely to continue this year. A 10% fall to around 3150 is also hard to accept at this stage ahead of the month-end FOMC meeting, the earnings season, Chinese New Year festivities and the mid-February Budget speech where the government is likely to introduce measures to stem the rising cost of living and perhaps other market friendly moves in the unlikely event of a deteriorating external and local corporate environment. Thus days of market falls in the next few weeks towards 3300-3350 should offer good trading chances barring a sharp Wall Street correction as the market can expect at least a short-lived run-up spanning 2-3 weeks in late January into February. It is still not advisable to chase prices that have run up too fast to the 3600 level. Traders should wait for the next buying opportunity that should emerge again not long after the Budget speech which notoriously in the past had seen some sharp reversals not long after the statement. Last year about 2 weeks after the Budget, the STI peaked at 3316 on Feb 26 and in a sudden one-week plunge, it landed at 2932 on March 5, down 11.6%. Although it is too early to gauge 2q08 performance, it is quite possible that the STI could reach a major bottom for the year during this period which may well again be below 3000. It may repeat last year?s double bottom behaviour again this year but the timing may differ. Last year it was at 2932 in March and 2962 in August. If the STI could plunge from nearly 3700 to briefly below 3000, it is best that traders brace themselves for another break of 3000 perhaps as early as late Feb-early March or sometime in second quarter. The 3650-3700 which houses the then mid-July record high is likely to be a strong resistance, which may not be tested until the second half. But even then only if the US escapes a recession and the Singapore economy does not slow down to the low end of the official 4.5-6.5% growth rate for 2008, which will unfavourably impact earnings growth to single digit range from current forecasts of 12 to 15-16%. On a technical note, the long term STI uptrend is still intact even if it revisits the 3000 psychological level. The critical support at 2006 high of 2666, which is close to the long-standing 2583 high in 2000 however must not be tested as it could spark a new bear market. The behaviour of the monthly MACD and RSI however are also not that inspiring. Nevertheless, a bear market scenario is unlikely to emerge in next few months but investors should not ignore vital signs of a worsening US economic situation this year as any deep recession there could lead to an easy break of STI 3000 notwithstanding the Asian growth story. Investors should bear in mind of the still close correlation of the local market to that of Wall Street, with the STI among the lowest regional indices? year-on year gainers, up 16% in line with the Dow?s modest 6% gain compared to over 40% for the Hang Seng Index and the 25-35% by other Asian ex-Japan markets, excluding China and India which remain in a class of heir own. Already we have seen the local economy slowing down sharply in 4q07 in line with the weak US economy. The Company's Stock Trading Account is not allowed to buy or sell security contrary to the recommendation in this report for 3 market days from the date of this report, Jan 2 2008.     
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CWQuah
Master |
02-Jan-2008 15:47
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x 0
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Agreed. Volumes nowadays barely breach even 1.8b. Even 1.6b is a real struggle (discount off the half-day trading sessions). Anyway it seems mkts will continue to drop a bit more for rest of the week. Standard fund manager tactics. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
02-Jan-2008 14:01
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x 0
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not sure if it's that simple, tanglinboy...market is very, very weak. expecting selldown in afternoon. large traders mostly out; but a lot of large sells across the board relatively still; doesn't bode well. | |||||
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tanglinboy
Elite |
02-Jan-2008 12:13
Yells: "hello!" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Market no energy. Make me want to sleep. | |||||
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mike8057d
Veteran |
02-Jan-2008 10:55
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x 0
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Looks like Singapore economy will slow down as well.....property prices will head south | |||||
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paperless
Senior |
02-Jan-2008 10:52
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Singapore's GDP Unexpectedly Shrinks on Weaker Output (Update2) By Shamim Adam Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's economy unexpectedly contracted last quarter as factory output slowed, suggesting Asia's export-dependent markets may face increased risks from slower global growth. Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.2 percent after adjusting for inflation, the first decline in 15 quarters, and followed a revised 4.4 percent expansion in the third quarter, the trade ministry said in a statement today. Economists were expecting a 3.1 percent gain. Singapore is first in the region to report fourth-quarter figures, giving economists an insight into how the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis and turmoil in global markets affected Asia's expansion. South Korea and Taiwan have already warned that easing demand for semiconductors, mobile phones and computers portends weaker growth in 2008. ``We definitely should expect to see more softness in exports in the next couple of quarters, and that's bad news for electronics-heavy Asian economies,'' said Kit Wei Zheng, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore. ``That means slower growth for Singapore and the rest of Asia.'' The Singapore dollar rose 0.1 percent to S$1.4394 per U.S. dollar as of 9:02 a.m. in Singapore. The benchmark Straits Times Index fell 0.6 percent. China, South Korea and the Philippines are due to report fourth-quarter GDP numbers later this month, while Japan, Taiwan and Malaysia are scheduled to release theirs in February. Growth to Ease The Asian Development Bank last month said growth in emerging East Asia in 2008 will be 8 percent, half a percentage point lower than this year. The region is twice as reliant on exports as the rest of the world, with 60 percent of overseas sales ultimately destined for the U.S., Europe and Japan. From a year earlier, Singapore's $132 billion economy grew 6 percent in the fourth quarter after gaining a revised 9 percent in the previous three months. Economists were expecting 7.7 percent growth. Manufacturing climbed 0.5 percent in the last three months of 2007 from a year earlier, the smallest increase in 4 1/2 years. Output growth slowed from a revised 10.3 percent in the July-September period, the trade ministry said. ``There's no imminent turnaround in electronics and we're unlikely to see a recovery in the next six months,'' said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. ``Pharmaceuticals, a key support for manufacturing, has been losing steam.'' Electronics Slump Singapore's electronic exports have dropped each month since February, mired in the worst slump in five years. South Korea yesterday lowered its growth forecast for 2008, pointing to the likelihood of slowing exports. Taiwan is also predicting an easing in overseas shipments this year which it said will make its growth target ``highly challenging.'' Hynix Semiconductor Inc. Chief Executive Officer Kim Jong Kap last week told employees of the world's second-largest maker of memory chips, based in Ichon, South Korea, that ``a difficult period'' is foreseen for the first quarter or the first half. South Korea's exports rose a less-than-expected 15.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry reported today. Overseas shipments are forecast to increase 11.6 percent in 2008, the ministry said. Singapore's services industry climbed 8.3 percent from a year earlier, matching the growth rate in the previous three- month period. Economists said demand for financial services probably eased as the rout in global credit markets increased risk aversion and the city-state's government implemented measures to cool the property market. Stocks Tumble Global stock markets have lost $1.6 trillion in value since October and the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market in the U.S. triggered more than $80 billion in writedowns among the world's largest banks. ``Singapore's financial services industry has been affected by the shadow of the subprime problem,'' Seah said. ``Investors are more cautious and that has slowed down activity.'' The island's burgeoning construction industry prevented a wider contraction in the economy last quarter as companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. set up new plants and property developers build new office towers and condominiums. Southeast Asia's fourth-largest economy reported a record S$16 billion ($11 billion) in fixed-asset investments last year. Construction surged 24.4 percent from a year earlier, after a revised 19.2 percent gain in the three months ended September. The economy advanced 7.5 percent in 2007, easing from a 7.9 percent rate of expansion the year before. The government expects growth to be between 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent in 2008. Singapore's growth had raised concern the economy is overheating, with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in more than 25 years. Policy makers expect inflation to be between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent this year, accelerating from a forecast average of 2 percent in 2007. The figures today are computed from data for October and November. Revised numbers, including nominal gross domestic product, will be released next month. To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net Last Updated: January 1, 2008 20:23 EST |
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traderstudent
Member |
02-Jan-2008 01:20
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STI rebounded off it's resistive trendline for latest closing. Otherwise it looks impressive with a shaven white candlestick with heavy volume, esp when it open only for half a day. U can take a look at the chart here in my blog. Hope 2008 will be a better year. This bull run has lasted for 4 years already. | |||||
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Livermore
Master |
01-Jan-2008 19:26
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Thanks Heaven For Emerging Markets.Tech giants with substantial business outside the
Cisco?s sales in emerging markets are expected o jump from $2.5 billion in 2007 to $10 billion in 2010. IBM and Microsoft will continue their overseas momentum. At IBM, revenue in the first three quarters of 2007 grew 25% in the four BRIC countries combined (
Microsoft rang up about 39% of its $51.1 billion in revenue outside the
Makers of semiconductors, including Maxim Integrated Products and chip king Intel, are expected to see a jump in demand. In 2008, Intel plans to launch new chips for mobile devices and home video products |
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