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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors Post Reply Rate topic
Farmer Master	15-Jan-2008 16:48        Farmer About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You have a point there Soh. I believe the old and new STI though varies, their principle still intact since much of the component stocks (~84%) still remain. I think Fraser have considered that too.
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sohguanh Veteran	15-Jan-2008 16:37        sohguanh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Farmer: Is the article still valid since now the STI has been revamped? They are taking the old STI in comparison with the new STI. I think the direction is still correct but will the difference be big between old and new STI?
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Farmer Master	15-Jan-2008 16:26        Farmer About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	AMFraser - DAILY REVIEW Tuesday, January 15, 2008 MARKET VIEW - SINGAPORE MARKET Four quick-paced corrections ranging from 7% to 14% in last 3 months signal harder times for traders used to sustained rallies in past 5 years Judging from the market behaviour since the all-time STI peak of 3906 last Oct 10, resistance levels have become much easier to identify than support levels. The series of lower peaks starting from 3906 followed by 3842 in early November to 3622 a month later and finally to 3492-3482 at year-end does not bode well for a test of 3800-3900 anytime soon. In fact 3906 may well mark a multi-year peak in the same class as 1288 in 1987, 1304 in 1990, 2138 in January 1994 and 2583 in January 2000. The latter will be an ultimate test of the support in the event of a major downmove, which is unlikely this year as there are higher support references at the May 2006 high of 2666 and last year?s double bottom at 2932 and 2962. The subsequent peak after 2666 ie 3316 in February last year has failed to hold up after 3 tests since November indicating high probability of a test of the 3000 psychological level. Another bearish sign is the sharp 271 point or 7.8% plunge from yearend?s 3482 to 3211 yesterday and not only that, the new FTSE STI which kicked off on Jan 10 had also started on a bearish footing being down to 3211 yesterday from 3344 on the last day of the old STI. Thus the more predictable behaviour seen during last year?s correction phases is no longer here which would make it harder for traders to be convinced there are safe trading chances out there. Investors are even more cautious preferring to wait for signs of a final bottom before moving in. Are there signs the worst is over? The toll on banks and major brokerages balance sheets from the US sub-prime crisis appears to be getting worse after about a year in the news and the Fed has certainly been slow to react in its interest rate cuts. Markets may interprete such moves as only short term measures that do no seem to reduce the risks of a US recession as evidenced from the earlier rate cuts which although excited players seen from strong Wall Street rallies ahead and/or after FOMC meetings, appear to have no positive impact on the US economy. Now prospects of at least another 50 bp cut at the end-January FOMC meet are ignored and it appears only a strong stimulus package with significant tax cuts on top of a 75bp rate cut can bring back the hiding bulls. Even then judging from the increasingly feebler run-ups after corrections in the last 3 months, the new STI has to overcome lower resistance levels starting from 3300, 3400 and 3500. The 3500-3600 levels may be too high to aspire at this stage and perhaps not until players regain confidence that the market has made a major bottom would they feel safe to resume aggressive buying. There may be a window for a rally in the last week of January till Budget speech around mid-February depending on the generosity of the goodies that may well include tax cuts to circumvent the need for any stimulus package later on in the year in the event the US economy takes a turn for the worse from the sub-prime woes. But the technical picture does not suggest a strong sustainable rally is likely, judging from the major cracks in the uptrend seen especially in the last 3 months which had their origins in the July-August 19.7% plunge from 3688 to 2962 and even earlier in March when the index lost 11.6% in a week from 3316 to 2932. Within a short 3 month span we have already seen 4 major pullbacks ? 7% immediately after the Oct 10 record to 3633, another 14% plunge in Nov, an 8.9% fall in December and 7.8% pullback so far this year to 3211 yesterday. At 3211 the STI is back to around its Aug 16 day?s high of 3215 on the eve of its memorable Aug 17 plunge to 2962. It closed at 3152 on Aug 16 after reaching a low of 3104. The next day it managed to shoot back to as high as 3179 after plunging to 2962 in mid-afternoon before ending at 3131. The 3130-3180 zone may thus be more comfortable levels for traders to start buying for a mild rally to around 3350-3400.
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hoshiyo Member	15-Jan-2008 16:02        hoshiyo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hi victorf, it is certainly good to see your posting again! it provide some certainty in this very uncertain market.
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newmoon Veteran	15-Jan-2008 15:59        newmoon About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The recession has already started. The housing crisis will lead to  a banking crisis an automobile crisis and credit card crisis. etc,..........  If not handled carefully it could lead to a financial meltdown. The Olympics the IR's will  not save the day as hundreds of billions of debt are involved worldwide. Good luck to contrarians
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sohguanh Veteran	15-Jan-2008 15:40        sohguanh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	victorf: I don't think of myself as a stock trader. I prefer to term my style as investor that like to do value buy :) Tua kang aka Big Hole means a person like to say until he is all knowledgeable, he is infallible and he is alway smart. In reality it could the real opposite. It has similar meaning to boasting or blowing one's trumpets.Why trumpets and not say saxophone or flute is another story :)
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victorf Master	15-Jan-2008 15:29        victorf About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	sohguanh :), do not get what you mean...hope you are doing fine in your trading...and the only GENIUS is the MARKET as the MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT, not you or me or others...good luck :)
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sohguanh Veteran	15-Jan-2008 15:26        sohguanh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	victorf: Everyone learn through mistakes isn't it? I lose monies I am not afraid to declare. What I post is to share with ppl how stock investing/trading is not a bed of roses. For ppl who claim they always win monies in bear and bull market are one they are really GENIUS or two they big hole ala Hokkien say we call tua kang :P Now who in this forum are genius and who in this forum are big hole? We will neber know since this forum is online isn't it :P
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victorf Master	15-Jan-2008 15:20        victorf About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	market in uncertainty mode...only sure thing is that it is uncertain...if you take 14th Jan as advised before for the uncertainty date, you should have not suffered in this round of serious sell down (esp. for China and shipping related stocks)....only advise now is Rule 1 - Be disclipline Rule 2- Be disclipline Rule 3 - Go back to rule 1 You should be able to pick some stocks at low when the uncertainty goes...good luck :)
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sohguanh Veteran	15-Jan-2008 15:19        sohguanh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In this current market, I catch the falling knives on a few stocks. My first catch knife attempt and the results is I lose big. Big as in 1K in total paper loss on two stocks which drop 10-30 cents after my buy in. The rest are more successful by my definition as after my buy it drop another 2-5 cents which is more bearable.Overall I neber manage to catch the bottom for most of them. Lesson 1 learnt: It is like strike 4D or Toto first prize to catch the lowest point. Lesson 2 learnt: To determine your entry for your selected stock, be more patient, let the stock slide until say for at least one week the share price is hovering around that price. This increase your chance of not catching the knife early. However this strategy is not foolproof as there are times the price range bound for 1 week and after I buy in it drop even further! I hope shortist to share some of their strategy in here. My strategy is buy and hold for long term and above are my true experiences.
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mike8057d Veteran	15-Jan-2008 15:10        mike8057d About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yes...there is no sure thing now
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elfinchilde Elite	15-Jan-2008 13:57        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	well. if you're talking about individual counters, then the best time to buy is when williams is oversold (-90 to -100), and MACD shows bottoming. ie, catch it on the slight upturn. of course, if you dare to try and catch the falling knife, that may reap huge returns. but do take care to make sure you don't whack all in at one shot...go by DCA (put in a portion only). money management: only play with what you can afford to lose. esp in this kind of market. g'luck folks!
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myinvest Member	15-Jan-2008 13:53        myinvest About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Not sure whether the best time to buy is when people rush and grab PUT warrants like hot cakes or financial institution starts to issue more PUT than CALL warrants, or when most analysts start to issue SELL calls. But that is the contrarian thinking.
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mike8057d Veteran	15-Jan-2008 13:49        mike8057d About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tuesday Monday   ST Index 3,195.76    -22.38 3,218.14    -69.20   Volume 1,160.7M 1,916.4M   Value $1,215.5M $2,335.3M   Gainers / Losers 232 / 521 183 / 663
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elfinchilde Elite	15-Jan-2008 13:44        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	just stay out. the selling is not done  yet. for those tempted to go in today, see the charts for what it is already.
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mike8057d Veteran	15-Jan-2008 13:21        mike8057d About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It's time for the Asian to take over the world economy? hahahahaha...food for thought
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cashiertan Elite	15-Jan-2008 13:07        cashiertan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi All, Below posting may tell you why DOW may rally this year. also it tells you why Singapore govt and other world govt are investing in US shares recently with recent buyup of UBS and Citibank, Merril Lynch It seem the recent purchase is just the starting of the investments by govt worldwide in USA and why the subprime may not be that big issue anymore. it seem the world govt may come in to prevent US economy from dropping further as they may bail out USA. USA is holding the world at ransom here, imagine if USA keep cutting their interest rate to prevent recession, it literally reduce the value of world holding of US bonds by Billions each time FED cut it. hold your cash, you have have good time buying at bottom later soon.. personally, i am thinking the recentl decline may be a spike to rid the weak hands before the rally. however do note of proper money mgmt as I may be wrong as often i did. Caveat Emptor
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cashiertan Elite	15-Jan-2008 12:58        cashiertan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	January 14, 2008 Issue #752   Where Big Governments Are ?Burning? Their U.S. Dollars Now by Dave Fessler, Capital Markets Specialist, Investment U   Dear Investment U Reader,   When I bought an abandoned farm back in the ?80s, I had tons of brush and tree branches to clean up, and all manner of other assorted junk. Over the course of a summer, I accumulated quite a pile, which I pushed out into a field with my bulldozer.   The best way to get rid of it, I decided, was to burn it. I figured I?d pour on a half-gallon of gasoline, just to give it a head start, and then throw a burning emergency flare at the pile from about 50 feet away.   Turns out, a half-gallon?s too much? and 50 feet away wasn?t far enough.   Let?s just say that when that much gasoline ignites under a pile of stuff, there?s a VERY loud noise, immediately followed by flaming debris hurling in all directions? and much, much farther than 50 feet. After an embarrassing call to the volunteer fire department, everything was okay.   Lesson learned: Use too much gas and you could get burned.   This story reminds me of the dilemma China and other countries face with regards to their burgeoning cash reserves (now totaling over $1.34 trillion for China, and growing by over $1 billion every day). Most of their reserves are in U.S. dollar-denominated instruments.   How do these countries get rid of all those U.S. dollars without causing an explosion (or implosion, in this case) of the U.S. and the world?s economies? Very carefully, and a little at a time.   But where?s the best place for them to get rid of it? The answer to this one may surprise you: Right back here in the good old USA. It?s already happening, actually. And there are two ways you can profit?   $12 Trillion Burning Holes in Big Pockets   China, the United Arab Emirates, Norway, Singapore and a dozen other countries are members of the world?s most exclusive (and expensive) club: countries that have taken their vast wealth and pooled it into Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) that consist of mostly U.S. dollar-denominated instruments.   And while China has initially cashed up its fund to the tune of $300 billion, it pales in comparison to that of the United Arab Emirates' $875 billion, which amassed its wealth from pumping black goo. It?s estimated that the total amount of SWF funds was around $3 trillion by the end of 2007, but this figure could rise to $12 trillion by 2015 as more and more countries seek higher returns for their national savings.   And think about this: It?s estimated that the total value of the available shares of all companies in the world is roughly $55 trillion, with a like amount attributable to bonds. In a few short years, SWFs could be the largest shareholders and bondholders in the world.   And as the assets of these SWFs grow, make no mistake about it: the countries that run them will be calling the shots in the world of international finance. All this cash injected into the global markets will provide a torrential flood of liquidity, increasing the value of every imaginable asset, both good and bad ones.   Diversification on a Grand Scale   Of course, the main reason these SWFs are on a buying spree has a familiar ring to it: diversification. These governments are simply trading in huge piles of U.S. dollars and dollar-denominated instruments for physical, tangible assets or shares of U.S. and foreign companies with valuable good will. It?s no different than what an investor does when he or she buys shares of stock in a company.   Ironically, most large SWF money pools are being amassed by authoritarian governments, which tend to be lousy investment managers. And while it?s easy to imagine a scenario whereby a rogue nation with a big SWF stash may decide to invest for political gain, its citizenry are the ones who need to worry the most, as failed investments by their government could directly impact their country?s standard of living in the future.   Fortunately, the International Monetary Fund and other organizations have stepped in. They?re developing guidelines to guard against the threat of politically motivated investments and/or a rogue state meddling with the global economy for nefarious purposes.   So how will the SWFs affect the world?s stock markets in 2008 and beyond? Let?s take a look?   How to Profit from SWFs   Remember, the managers of these SWFs want higher returns and, therefore, will be focused on bargains, scooping up shares of big companies at fire-sale prices ? just as they are now doing with financial and brokerage firms.   The easiest way to ride their coattails in the financial sector is through shares of the Financial Sector SPDR Fund (AMEX: XLF). This ETF is trading near its 52-week low right now. It could be a great time to start accumulating shares.   Of course, the ride for the next 6-12 months could be a bit on the hair-raising side. XLF contains shares of some of the largest financial institutions. Some of these companies may have to take additional write-downs from the sub-prime mess.   A more conservative, and potentially less volatile, way to play the SWF card is by investing in the same large-cap, global blue-chip companies that they do. This is easy. All you have to do is pick up shares of the Dow Jones Global Titans Fund (AMEX:DGT).   The fund holds shares of the world?s 50 biggest companies. It?s up a respectable 11% since The Oxford Club recommended it a little over a year ago. And you?ll collect a sturdy 2%-plus dividend along the way.   There are certainly other ways to play SWFs, but the funds above represent two of the easiest (and safest) ways to hop on this mega trend early.   Good investing,   Dave   Dave Fessler, Investment U?s Capital Markets Specialist, is an experienced investor, a contributing editor for The Oxford Club, and someone who does much more than simply talk the talk: His investment prowess allowed him to retire at the ripe old age of 47. To see how he did it, here?s Dave?s story? in his own words.   %%track {http://www.oxfonline.com/OXF/Members/mem1007.html?pub=OXF&code=EOXFHC03&o=[messageid]&u=[memberid]&l=[urlid]} -name {EdmenT01-OXF-EOXFHC03}%%     ----------Sponsored Link---------   Skim $5,250 per Month - LEGALLY - from Wall Street's Biggest Banks   A former banker from the second-biggest investment bank on Wall Street is revealing his confidential "Pass Code" to a small circle of investors.  And it's making them very rich.  How?  Using this "Pass Code," anyone can "skim" $5,250 per month from the world's biggest computerized bank transactions, LEGALLY...    He's even written a brief report revealing exactly how you can use this "Pass Code" technique to collect your share starting tomorrow at 12 p.m., EST...   CLICK BELOW FOR DETAILS   %%track {http://www.oxfonline.com/TOT/1105x.html?pub=TOT&code=ETOTJ109&o=[messageid]&u=[memberid]&l=[urlid]} -name {Gad01T-TOT-ETOTJ109}%%   ------------------------------------   Today?s IU Crib Sheet   With nearly $900 billion at hand, experts believe Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates is the world's largest Sovereign Wealth Fund. But maybe not for long?   If Saudi Arabia establishes its own SWF, as expected, it could dwarf Abu Dhabi's assets.   As Dave mentioned, troubled banks are getting most of the attention from these funds. Foreign governments have poured about $27 billion into Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, UBS and Morgan Stanley.   ?Sovereign Wealth Funds,? according to Dow Jones, ?are an obvious source of capital for banks because high commodity prices have swollen the amount of cash these funds have available to invest.? Citigroup?s looking for more?   The company wants to raise about $12 billion. And China Development Bank has already proposed to take a $2 billion stake.   Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and UBS are all holdings of the Dow Jones Global Titans Fund (AMEX: DGT).   To find learn more about why foreign governments are making the switch from currencies to equities, take a look at The Rise of State-Controlled Funds.   http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2007/20070713.html
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cashiertan Elite	15-Jan-2008 12:34        cashiertan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Woah this decline is pretty serious. better play very carefully!
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Lazyhorse Senior	15-Jan-2008 12:22        Lazyhorse About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Chinese New Year coming so everything is selling at a discount including those shares that I BOUGHT !!!!!  Grrrrr.........#^&*@#%
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