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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

pikachu
Veteran

13-Apr-2008 21:40

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Yells: "Holy Cow!"

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Tomorrow will be a sea of blood.... Smiley

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ozone2002
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13-Apr-2008 18:09

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Coming week... slew of financial banks e.g merril reporting..n consumers e.g google, ebay..

not looking pretty

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OneSharer
Veteran

13-Apr-2008 17:19

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Thanks ozone2002 for that article.

Just a short by-the-way comment:

In times of emgergency, to reduce ambiguity & ensure better responsiveness in a crowd,
may be better to give direct instruction than a general plea.

Example: Could you (point/describe the person) call the police!
Vs: Could somebody call the police!

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singaporegal
Supreme

13-Apr-2008 09:56

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Yells: "Female TA nut"

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I'm not trading as much as I used to last year. The reason is that many counters these days are not very liquid.

cyjjerry85 ( Date: 11-Apr-2008 07:51) Posted:

jux outta curiousity....the volumes had been low unlike the past year...it seems a norm nowadays and the average volume last quarter is at 1.69billion...hmmm...r u trading currently still this year or totally sitting out?

singaporegal ( Date: 10-Apr-2008 21:43) Posted:

Daily volumes on the exchange are still unimpressive. I'm waiting for the day when daily volumes are consistently above 2 billion shares.

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ozone2002
Supreme

12-Apr-2008 23:08

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Good article everyone should read..i've always taken the contrarian approach.. don't follow the crowd cos its the minority that makes it in the stock market.. one good example would be cosco..i bet everyone is trying to dump cosco after the "scare"..but if ya take the contrarian approach.. u will think otherwise n see its true potential..

Published April 12, 2008

Don't be afraid to be a contrarian

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

CATHERINE Genovese had driven home to the Kew Gardens section of Queens, New York, early on March 13, 1964. Arriving home at about 3.15am and parking about 30 metres from her apartment, she was attacked by Winston Moseley.

I believe the findings that humans have a tendency to take a cue from those around when they are uncertain about how to behave, ring true. That's why to be able to think independently is such a prized quality to have.

Genovese tried to run but was caught by her assailant who stabbed her twice in the back. When Genovese screamed out, 'Oh my god, he stabbed me! Help me!', several neighbours heard and rushed outside. When one of them shouted at the attacker, 'Leave that girl alone!', Moseley ran off and Genovese slowly made her way towards her apartment. She was seriously injured.

Some witnesses saw Moseley enter his car and drive away, only to return 10 minutes later. He found Genovese, who was lying, barely conscious, in a hallway at the back of the building she lived in. He then attacked her again, stabbing her several more times.

While she lay dying, he sexually assaulted her. He stole about US$49 from her and left her dying in the hallway. The attacks lasted about half an hour. According to one report, during Moseley's last attack in the hallway, a neighbour just up the stairs opened his door and watched what was going on without doing anything to stop the attacker.

A few minutes after the final attack, a witness called the police. Police and medical personnel arrived within minutes of the call. Genovese was taken away by ambulance and died on the way to hospital.

The metropolitan editor of The Times, AM Rosenthal, happened to have lunch with the city police commissioner a week later. Rosenthal asked the commissioner about a different Queens-based homicide, and the commissioner, thinking he was being questioned about the Genovese case, told of the long and public attack on Genovese. None of those who saw the attack take place bothered to call the police, he was told.

Rosenthal then assigned a reporter to investigate the 'bystander angle' of the incident. Within a week, The Times published a long, front-page article. The initial paragraphs of the report ran like this: 'For more than half an hour 38 respectable, law-abiding citizens in Queens watched a killer stalk and stab a woman in three separate attacks in Kew Gardens.

'Twice the sound of their voices and the sudden glow of their bedroom lights interrupted him and frightened him off. Each time he returned, sought her out and stabbed her again. Not one person telephoned the police during the assault. One witness called after the woman was dead.

'That was two weeks ago today. But Assistant Chief Inspector Frederick M Lussen, in charge of the borough's detectives and a veteran of 25 years of homicide investigations, is still shocked.

'He can give a matter-of-fact recitation of many murders. But the Kew Gardens slaying baffles him - not because it is a murder, but because 'good people' failed to call the police.'

Rosenthal subsequently wrote a book on the subject and attributed the non-action of witnesses to apathy. 'Nobody can say why the 38 did not lift the phone while Miss Genovese was being attacked, since they cannot say themselves,' he wrote. 'It can be assumed, however, that their apathy was indeed one of the big-city variety. It is almost a matter of psychological survival, if one is surrounded and pressed by millions of people, to prevent them from constantly impinging on you, and the only way to do this is to ignore them as often as possible. Indifference to one's neighbour and his troubles is a conditioned reflex in life in New York as it is in other big cities.'

Soon psychologists were attracted to the case. And Latane and Darley came up with the explanation that it was because there were 38 witnesses that no one had helped.

Two reasons were offered as to why a bystander to an emergency will be less likely to help when there are a number of other bystanders. One, with several potential helpers around, the personal responsibility of each individual is reduced. 'Perhaps someone else will give a call or call for aid, perhaps someone else already has.'

The second reason is as follows: Very often an emergency is not obviously an emergency. Is the person lying in an alley a heart-attack victim or a drunk sleeping one off? Is the commotion next door an assault requiring the police or an especially loud marital spat where intervention would be inappropriate and unwelcome? What is going on?

In times of such uncertainty, people's natural tendency is to look at the actions of others for clues. We see how others around us are reacting and then decide whether the event is or is not an emergency.

Uncertainty and inaction

In his book Influence, Robert Cialdini says everybody else observing an event is likely to be looking for social evidence, too. 'Because we all prefer to appear poised and unflustered among others, we are likely to search for that evidence placidly, with brief, camouflaged glances at those around us. Therefore everyone is likely to see everyone else looking unruffled and failing to act. As a result, by the principle of social proof, the event will be roundly interpreted as a non-emergency.'

This, according to Latane and Darley, is a state of pluralistic ignorance 'in which each person decides that since nobody is concerned, nothing is wrong. Meanwhile, the danger may be mounting to the point where a single individual, uninfluenced by the seeming calm of others, would react'.

So in essence, the cause of inaction is the simple state of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, experiments also found that we are likely to use the actions of others to decide proper behaviour for ourselves, especially when we view those others to be similar to ourselves.

This tendency to take a cue to decide proper behaviour from those around us, and especially those similar to us, when we are uncertain of a situation, can be observed in the stock market as well.

For example, in the late 1990s and early 2000, many were uncertain about how to value dotcom companies. This new breed of companies was said to be about to revolutionise how business was done, and their earnings were seen to have the capacity to grow at an exponential rate if they could be first in the market.

In the confusion, some analysts began to value these companies based on the number of eyeballs the dotcoms could capture. And ridiculously, the higher a company's burn-rate for its cash, the higher it was valued. Companies were also valued based on their sales, since there were no profits to speak of.

Soon, these metrics became acceptable ways to value a dotcom company, and more and more people in the market started using them. That is, 'until the euphoria mounted to the point where a single individual, uninfluenced by the seeming frenzy of others, would react by selling the dotcom stocks'.

The same goes for an undervalued stock. Say, you spot a stock you think is very cheap. It is fundamentally sound but is in an out-of-favour sector. It is trading at only two times enterprise value over its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. This was mentioned in passing in the press, and the price did rise, but then the market's interest in the stock slowly died down. In such a situation, the average investor would start asking why a stock is so cheap, yet nobody is buying it. He will try to explain it away by saying, 'others must know something that I don't', and in the process, may miss a two or three-bagger.

The market will wake up to the stock's potential 'when a single individual, uninfluenced by the seeming ignorance of others, reacts by buying the stock'. Such action, if it is by a respected investor, will be the validation needed by others to come round to the realisation that the stock is cheap.

As the almost legendary Teng Ngiek Lian of Target Asset Management puts it: 'A great investor is never scared to be a contrarian.'

In the Genovese case, it was subsequently revealed that there were a number of factual errors in how it was reported. Significantly fewer than 38 people witnessed the attack. The correct number is said to be about a dozen. And none of the witnesses observed the attack in its entirety.

Because of the layout of her apartment complex and the fact that the attacks took place in different locations, no witness saw the entire sequence. Most only heard portions of the incident without realising its seriousness, a few saw only a small part of the initial assault, and no witness directly saw the final attack and attempted rape in an exterior hallway which resulted in Genovese's death.

The factual inaccuracies of the case notwithstanding, I believe the findings that humans have a tendency to take a cue from those around when they are uncertain about how to behave, ring true. That's why to be able to think independently is such a prized quality to have. Incidentally, in case of emergency, to reduce the ambiguity of the situation and ensure that passers-by stop to help, the person in need should clearly vocalise that he or she needs help.

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cyjjerry85
Elite

12-Apr-2008 14:48

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not a very good week ahead as Merill Lynch (Thurs) and JP Morgan (Weds)...reporting their financials...

key inflation figures will also be in place from the US...better to remain cautious and err on the protective side..

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paperless
Senior

12-Apr-2008 09:52

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The esoteric investment dogma yet valid. No frolicsome.

paperless
Senior

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors / Posted: 07-Mar-2008 16:04 4Go to Message

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Yup. The trend is well defined couple months ago.

Same commandments for the same strategy.

paperless
Senior

Straits Times Index / STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors / Posted: 25-Jan-2008 23:03

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If DOW tonight closing with green (must), reversal is then under the way. And the next is to identify the DOW's bullishness (by making 'long' will be more easier to profit when in such a state) , DOW have to break thru 12809.29 (+430.68 more from yesterday closing).

Please take note also for this, if DOW failed to do so (decimal place figure have to take into account as well), then too bad, must run as fast as you can and please don't look back.. (by making 'short' will be more easier to profit when in such state)

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ozone2002
Supreme

12-Apr-2008 09:12

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yeah come monday my put warrants will make me a fortune..keke..

are u pooooooooooooting? ;p

ozone2002 ( Date: 11-Apr-2008 11:38) Posted:

Vol so FREAKING thin...naturally STI up...

looks like unsustainable...PUT WARRANT PLAY AGAIN!!.. :)

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winsontkl
Elite

12-Apr-2008 08:17

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Yesterday trading was a bit weird.....up 62 points or 2% more with a mere trading volume of 1.3b....so easy to push meh???? Find it a bit fishy....

Dow 256 points down will crack STI unrealistic gain made on Friday and most likely will see red...

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Blastoff
Elite

12-Apr-2008 07:30

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With DOW down by 256.56, STI is should to be affected in one way or another...

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moneymaking
Member

12-Apr-2008 01:31

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Maybe our dear victorf is right again. Uncertainty from 14 Feb... Victorf, how low do you think STI can go ?

victorf ( Date: 28-Jan-2008 12:00) Posted:

market will be back to certainty from 1st February till 14th/21st April....it will move higher high (see now at around 3050)...buy on dip and good luck trading :)...Market is always RIGHT :)

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lookcc
Master

11-Apr-2008 20:13

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those who fear but NOT greedy shud hv made some $$ 2day...by just hit n run....see now dow futures in red, -ve almost 100 n if consumer sentiment out at 10 2night is below forecast of 68....then not unlikely dow close ard 200 pts negative.....how not 2 hv fear, this type of market condition?.....better 2 b i not stupid n i not brave.

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ericsim
Senior

11-Apr-2008 18:23

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vol low are caused by fear factor, last few days down, and perhaps it's friday and those SB dun like to carry baby over weekend. anyway as long in +ve territory surely everybody, expect shortists, are happy. DOW future green, so come monday another energetic fresh day not blue day....wish you & me good luck

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AK_Francis
Supreme

11-Apr-2008 17:40

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Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers."

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What AK perceive is that those profit takers already gone to count money leow. If next week markets turns good, I am quite sure, they will return.

On the otherhand, those kena burnt during the last few -ve trading days one, esp those involved in naked shorting since 8 Apr, their buying in falls on next Tue. They would be much worried as this morning STI on up trend run, their hope for down trend domino effect gone. For those who naked shorting subsequent 2 days later, now their pants already wet. Worst, if next week is a rally's week, then they hv to throw their pants leow. Abovementioned groups of players had kept themselves on sidelines the whole day loh, dare not to try anything leow. Nonetheless, thats not the end of the day, things may change. Hence, for forumers, if you hv conducted a naked shorting, then don't be dishearten, cheer up and look forward to next week. AK don't mind DJ tonite down a bit to ease tention loh. Cheers.

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Livermore
Master

11-Apr-2008 17:30

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Hi Singaporegal,

Then you have to get ready to buy at higher prices

singaporegal ( Date: 10-Apr-2008 21:43) Posted:

Daily volumes on the exchange are still unimpressive. I'm waiting for the day when daily volumes are consistently above 2 billion shares.

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cyjjerry85
Elite

11-Apr-2008 17:17

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it was quoted that yesterday volume was below average at 1.5billion...and today worst...1.3billion trading volume only...and the thing is that...the market rallied on a Friday...we are close to the 3150 resistance level that many analysts had mentioned for weeks...well once again...we will have to depend on the US markets tonight

Singaporegal or anyone else have views on the decrease in trading volume...it is really very thin today

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cyjjerry85
Elite

11-Apr-2008 15:04

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now past 3100 ..slightly higher than the morning's high...dunno if we can stay above this level or not...working ppl got Monday's blues...for traders...its Friday's blues...sianz...need more action involved

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cyjjerry85
Elite

11-Apr-2008 11:52

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but is juz ultimately sianz......... Smiley

ozone2002 ( Date: 11-Apr-2008 11:38) Posted:

Vol so FREAKING thin...naturally STI up...

looks like unsustainable...PUT WARRANT PLAY AGAIN!!.. :)

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ozone2002
Supreme

11-Apr-2008 11:38

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Vol so FREAKING thin...naturally STI up...

looks like unsustainable...PUT WARRANT PLAY AGAIN!!.. :)

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cyjjerry85
Elite

11-Apr-2008 11:07

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hahah` i saw an article before that an American psychologist took notice and found out in a research that dark weathers like this morning...it affects traders...to be on the dark side...the cloudy skies or when with heavy downpours...it gives ppl the gloomy feeling...

more or less got some effect la...but we are the retailers...wonder if it will affect those BBs...imagine...heavy thunderstorm means heavy selldown...haiz* if only the market is so predictable

Centaur ( Date: 11-Apr-2008 10:31) Posted:

volume so thin again... sleepy day, must be the rain Smiley

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