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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 17:19
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another day of decreased volume....mini-"rally" of +13.53 points on 1.09billion shares traded...pretty miserable..if keep on decrease in such a rate...one day soon we might even see below 1 billion~! well..in today's market...who knows | ||
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stupidfool
Senior |
15-Apr-2008 16:37
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Thanks elfinchide. Have read and digested your post. |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 16:10
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i wonder if the "sell on rally" still on people's mind...or is greed taking over the psychology of trading now....do note of the volume we are threading on...personally i think it seems more like a form of gamble in the hope to contra gains for retail players | ||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 15:44
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lol no such thing as stupid questions, stupidfool. Fools are the wisest of all, because they're willing to learn. :) Careful of trap (bull or bear??? i mean they're ramping it up to shoot it down, like last week/week before). Cos if you look at the charts: the long term trend is clearly ending. Today's up is on low vol, AND gold is rising, too. All signs show unsustainable. limit of STI is at 3,180. enter tues, wed; thurs is when the fall will likely start. (note: likely). falls to the levels before their gaps, and then it is a question of whether they'd take the gapdown. ie, kepcorp support at 10, gap is to ~9.87. look up the rest yourselves, around the dates mar 28 to apr 3rd. ;) hahahhaa. :P happy hunting. wld advise stay out of market both short and long for tmrw. razor thin margins either way. |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 15:15
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last night DOW fell by 23 points...now looking at our STI...we are up by 23 points...hahaa` kinda contradict..the volume we are looking upon is of very thin currently..dunno wad's the market thinking..later kana like last Friday again | ||
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stupidfool
Senior |
15-Apr-2008 11:55
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elfinchide,being stupidfool means can ask stupid qn right? Can give some kind of estimate wat keppel,sgx,uob,dbs and oc will fall to???Hehehe.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 11:23
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fyi, technical observation based on MACD and williams: (ie, <1 mth outlook) if you look at the blue kings and courtiers of the STI, most of them are ending their uptrend/just ended it. Williams (short term) shows that they aren't completely oversold yet. In fact, quite a few have a long way more to go. So my best guess is this: STI to fall in coming sessions, led by KepCorp, SGX, UOB, DBS and OCBC. Capland has actually bottomed out already, more or less. 6.17 lowest limit. So the fall will be led by the 5 above. fyi only. |
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victorf
Master |
15-Apr-2008 10:41
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maybe one can hope that the uncertainty period can be "EXCEPTIONAL" compared to the past years we called....meaning that it will trade up rather than trade down....but hope is always hope and is the WORST ENEMY for active/inactive trading...still the same old principle Rule 1: Be disclipline Rule 2: Be disclipline Rule 3: Go back to Rule 1 We will make a call when certainty is back...good luck :) |
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cathylmg
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 10:40
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Negative territory already. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
15-Apr-2008 10:18
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Hulumas always has an enjoyable style... hehehe...
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Hulumas
Supreme |
15-Apr-2008 09:54
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Dear Tanglinboy, It goes without saying, market will be quieter and quieter week by week, correspondingly market volatility will be subsided week by week too. As I have posted in previous posting, I am very pleased to know that, generally speaking, since it is a good sign of global capital market gradual recovery. Perhaps it is time to selectively accumulate the stock for mid to long term holding.(CAVEAT EMPTOR)
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ozone2002
Supreme |
15-Apr-2008 09:54
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yeah market climbing on low vol again... 2 ways to make $$ on this.. 1) ride the trend up... 2) let the index move up then accumulate put warrants.. cos move ups on low vol is NOT SUSTAINABLE!.. Thats all folks |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 09:31
Yells: "hello!" |
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- There is little debate about whether the U.S. economy is in a recession. The question is how painful and long the downturn will be. There is a growing fear among some economists that the recession will be particularly bad. "We just can't believe it's going to be short. The question is how bad can it get? The situation is moving more towards severe than towards mild," said Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Decision Economics. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the firm that officially determines when recessions begin and end, the last two recessions (2001 and 1990-1991) each lasted 8 months. But Sinai and other economists cited numerous economic headwinds, including tight credit, falling home prices and mounting losses for banks, as reasons why this downturn could last longer and be more painful than seen in those last two recessions, with more job losses and a sharper drop in economic activity. In addition to the drag on the economy from rising job losses, they also pointed to record high commodity prices and plunging confidence as factors that could cut into consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up nearly three-quarters of the nation's economic activity, any decline in spending can create a downward spiral for the whole economy. "We have a deadly combination of commodity price inflation and credit contraction," said University of Maryland economics professor Peter Morici. "It's tough to imagine a worse combination. In a worst case scenario, the recession could last several years." The Federal Reserve is still projecting modest growth for the U.S. economy in the second half of this year though, as are many economists. This is based on the belief that the economic stimulus package passed by Congress in February and a series of interest rate cuts by the Fed should lead to higher spending by consumers and businesses in the coming months. But even Fed policymakers voiced worries of a worse downturn according to the minutes of their March 18 meeting released last week. Credit, housing and inflation all big concerns Many of the problems facing the economy will come into focus this week as many top bank and Wall Street firms report results and the government will give its latest update on inflation and housing starts. Citibank (C, Fortune 500), Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500) and Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) are expected to announce additional losses. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, two of the government's key inflation readings, are likely to show big jumps in March compared to February. But it's the crisis in housing that is of particular concern. Economists forecast that the Census Bureau will report building permits hit a 17-year low in March and that housing starts were anemic. And during a conference call with investors Monday, Don Truslow, chief risk officer of banking giant Wachovia (WB, Fortune 500), said home prices should fall through 2008 before finally hitting bottom in the middle of 2009. (Wachovia, the No. 4 U.S. bank by assets, reported an unexpected loss Monday.) Sinai argues that until housing prices turn around, there isn't much hope for a pick-up in the economy because housing woes will continue be a drag on consumer spending and the credit markets. "So much borrowing and lending was leveraged to [housing], that as long as values keep going down, the exposure of consumers, of financial institutions and of investors remains extremely high," he said. The home-equity spigot has been shut off Bill Hampel, chief economist for the Credit Union National Association, said the run-up in home prices in the middle of this decade led consumers to take on much higher levels of debt than in the past. As long as home prices continued to rise, homeowners were able to tap into home equity lines of credit. But with home prices falling and credit suddenly tight, many households have lost this extra source of income. That could create a significant and long-lasting decline in consumer spending. "What happened in the short space of the last five years was pretty scary -- household debt rose to about 125% of income. It hadn't ever been 100% before that. It took consumers a long time to get into these conditions; it's going to take a long time to get that fixed," Hampel said. At the same time, consumers are also facing rising prices at the grocery store and gas station. The Fed's rate cuts have cut into the value of the dollar, further increasing the costs of commodities, which impacts the price of food and oil. This may only get worse if the dollar keeps falling. "It seems to me the big wild card for the economy would be a sharp decline in the dollar, which in turn would cause U.S. inflation to spike up," said Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust. That would be a problem since it would force the Fed to start raising interest rates again in order to make sure inflation does not get out of hand, Kasriel said. And rate hikes at a time when the economy is trying to rebound from this slowdown could kill any chances of a quick recovery. 
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tanglinboy
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 09:21
Yells: "hello!" |
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Market quiet today. Will be quiet this week. | ||
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 09:11
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this morning started off with volume trickling down...its a very slow start to the day...normally see numbers jumping up & down on my screen...yesterday was tortise...today is snail...tomorrow.....
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
15-Apr-2008 08:49
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morning looking into the Asia region....rather flat...no up no down....if we also follow suit throughout the flat day...its gonna be another boring one for us...volume will probably be lower than yesterday...if tt's the case...sianz... | ||
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
15-Apr-2008 01:05
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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AK is still very nieve on understanding the jargons used on stock statistic analysis. There are many free talks and demo on stock investment strategies, basing on some softwares driven programmes, ie graphs and charts, to assist investor to make money over the stock market, be it on bear or bull run. Does these kind of talks help to make one better understanding on how analyst charting the graphs and making full use of the statistic to avoid losses and making money at ease? Not sure leh, friend asked me to join him but I still quite reluctant to attend. This is because the Cantenese wise saying again, "where got frogs jumping all over the streets 1". Yah, discipline is one of the 7 fundamentals of Warrant Buffet, US, investment strategies or code of conduct. Hmmm, Peter Lim, Spore, also my idol as well. AK just no smell lah, dreams only. Cheers. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
14-Apr-2008 23:56
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hey victorf, my guess is that you're using a quant method. perhaps adjust the time period T in your calculations (shorten it)? have noticed that since the previous call before this, it went off by at least one dip in between your stated dates. You were, however, deadly accurate on the three calls prior. Chaos Theory: because stock markets are an organic game, so one standard deviation off would skew the entire graph at the end picture. Nevertheless, longterm, you're still one of the more accurate callers i've seen on this forum, so elfin respects to you. :) stupidfool: discipline: ie, do not overtrade. enter only what you can afford to lose. If you have profit, run. don't wait for that 0.005c more. If you are trying to buy, and it's at the bottom, don't wait for 1c more to dip. basically, don't miss the boat either way because of greed or fear. if you should think it's too risky, then, stay out. pls note that market is far from bottoming out: because if you look at williams of the blues, a lot aren't even at their oversold levels yet. so do be careful. volatility will be in, esp this week with the major US firms releasing results. 16 to 21st. |
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sarahlkh
Senior |
14-Apr-2008 23:45
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thanks stupidfool... i guess the mkt sentiment is really bad.. everyone just take the chance to sell down making matters worse. come one day when it starts to pick up, things will turn better | ||
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stupidfool
Senior |
14-Apr-2008 19:49
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wat is meant by discipline???....er...dont anyhow buy and sell?or make have make kopi $$$ can run road??? Not sure best to trade in short term.Maybe also good to hold good shares for long term??
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