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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
singaporegal
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22-Jun-2008 10:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The end of the school holidays would probably mean higher trading volumes this coming week! That's good for TA people.
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virgoan
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22-Jun-2008 10:25     
 
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Dear Elf

I'm impressed with ur wonderful knowledge on TA, Willams etc.

Where and how u learn these techniques? Is there any course conductng these in S'pore?

Do u conduct this course privately?
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Eldarchen
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22-Jun-2008 09:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Elf is not him but her Smiley

SmartBear      ( Date: 22-Jun-2008 01:30) Posted:

i am correct does not mean that i think elf is wrong =) dun make it sound (at least to me it is) like i was putting elf down. no such intentions...

individual opinion without substance is actually as good as bullshit. well, at least elf managed to pen down the facts that lead to his "hypothesis". Notice that many in the forum are fair weather ppl. when the particular stock go up - they post until they like guru, when stock is down and out comes various lame excuses...




winsontkl      ( Date: 21-Jun-2008 23:46) Posted:



SmartBear....u are correct.

However, in this forum, we do exchange ideas and learn from it .... all very subjective and the degree of reliabilities depend on what is being stated... end of it all....a disclaimer clause as this is purely individual's opinion...not necessary correct....but so is the market....who ever guess correct all the times.

I do admire Elf's comments and have much to learn from it...

Cheers.
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SmartBear
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22-Jun-2008 01:47     
 
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elf,

1 thing i not very clear. hope u can enlighten me.

u said that the buy signal came on 18 and 19 at 5.75. why is it so ?

looking at 18, it would be reasonable if one were to say Williams staging a possible comeback. But notice on the 19, williams actually went back down...
 
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SmartBear
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22-Jun-2008 01:30     
 
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i am correct does not mean that i think elf is wrong =) dun make it sound (at least to me it is) like i was putting elf down. no such intentions...

individual opinion without substance is actually as good as bullshit. well, at least elf managed to pen down the facts that lead to his "hypothesis". Notice that many in the forum are fair weather ppl. when the particular stock go up - they post until they like guru, when stock is down and out comes various lame excuses...




winsontkl      ( Date: 21-Jun-2008 23:46) Posted:



SmartBear....u are correct.

However, in this forum, we do exchange ideas and learn from it .... all very subjective and the degree of reliabilities depend on what is being stated... end of it all....a disclaimer clause as this is purely individual's opinion...not necessary correct....but so is the market....who ever guess correct all the times.

I do admire Elf's comments and have much to learn from it...

Cheers.
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elfinchilde
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22-Jun-2008 00:36     
 
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edit: paiseh. i meant run it at 5.91, not 6.91. 

see, another 'expert' mistake.
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elfinchilde
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22-Jun-2008 00:24     
 
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HLJHLJ: confirm your time periods again? how can one buy on 24th march and sell on 9 march? or did you mean May?

Your time period is the most important thing: how long are you playing the counter for? For a long trend, ignore williams, ride MACD. For short trend, williams is your most important indicator.

And yups smartbear, TA is never 100% accurate. Never believe anyone who tells ya otherwise. The only thing TA does, is to improve the probability that your trade is right. It does not, however, guarantee it.

Sudden jump: no idea why. BUSD did show large institutional buying the two days prior tho. Note that in my post, i had said for short rebound on long term downtrend. and to take profit at the daily range of capitaland.

As repeated:

"ie, signal for a shortterm buy of capitaland came at 5.75 on 18th and 19th june. So you'd take it and exit by friday, with the daily range of capland as your target."

ie, i wouldn't have waited for 6.08: no one would have predicted that jump. What i'd have done, is to run it at 6.91, the previous high.

Setting of profit target has to be realistic.

I'm posting because it's rather tiring seeing small fries jumping around and aimlessly, and getting tricked all the time. Rowlsey, banjoo, jade, gems, chinanewtown, chinahongxing, Xpress, cosco, yzj, etcetc. I read far more threads than i post on.

Wouldn't claim to be a saviour or totally accurate or whatever crap though. TA is about probability, not 100% "I am right".

And haha. it's one thing to post, it's another if people can learn. What i'm giving is only main readings: the finer points can only be learnt intraday or live interaction. Besides, all advice is pointless if people cannot overcome their own personaliy: trigger happy fingers, greed, hope, fear, etc. At the end of the day, trading is very much personality dependent. What method works for one person, may cause failure for another. You need to be very self aware, and independent enough to take all opinions, but form your own and keep your own strat.

i'm just one more voice here for people to add to their assessment: not the be all and end all, nor the gospel truth. i have no pretensions about that. (eg, one stock i consistently fail on: SGX. that's why i don't play it: it doesn't work with my strat and timeframe). i've definitely been wrong many times. which is why i always say, i have no hesitation in cutting. Pride is the one emotion that is useless in the stock market.

Cheers. :)   

 
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winsontkl
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21-Jun-2008 23:46     
 
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SmartBear....u are correct.

However, in this forum, we do exchange ideas and learn from it .... all very subjective and the degree of reliabilities depend on what is being stated... end of it all....a disclaimer clause as this is purely individual's opinion...not necessary correct....but so is the market....who ever guess correct all the times.

I do admire Elf's comments and have much to learn from it...

Cheers.
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SmartBear
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21-Jun-2008 23:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hindsight is forever 20/20.. TA fails at times...

no one in the forum can 100% tell u why the sudden jump.

if there is such a person, he wun be in this forum.

if there is such a person in the forum, he wun be posting anything about it for the obvious reasons =)
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winsontkl
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21-Jun-2008 19:06     
 
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Elf....a bit cheam leh...

From what has been stated, market is a moving target hence hard to predict.....

But what causes the jump for Capitaland esp. the last minute spurs of 14 cents??? Theoretically, no doubt the selling is a bit overdone, done suppose that BB believes the value is oversold.

Sentiment globally is feeling the heat of inflation and financial credit crunch which does not favors property sector for the near term....so what causes the optimism....Govt suspend the reserve land??? This only looks favourable from supply end but does not answer the demand aspect....in fact demand should be falling quite drastically, don't you think....

Thanks to share.



elfinchilde      ( Date: 21-Jun-2008 15:53) Posted:



thanks smartbear. :)

weekend's here, yea, no need to get obsessed over the market.

short lesson for the noobs while i'm bored now. haha. Capitaland is the eg cited, closing price of OHLC cited.

-------------------

On prices and relativity.

One of the key mistakes I've realised traders, even experienced ones, tend to make: we fix our price targets, and get wholly caught up in them. Partly because we read analysts' reports, and believe in their 'target prices.'

When really, price is a relative thing. And targets are moving targets, not fixed targets.

Say you had the power of foresight.

April 15, close of capitaland at 6.24. Would you buy it, if you knew that it would go up to 7.04 on Apr 28th?

Then a second time: 2nd June, capland at 6.35. Would you buy it, if you knew that by Jun 12, it'd fall to 5.85?

6.35 is cheap relative to 7.04, isn't it? But it's expensive relative to 5.85.

And that's precisely what I mean. Prices are relative. So what's an investor/trader to do? Apply this knowledge foreward. Hold in your head the idea of price targets, but always keep in mind they are relative and movable.

So apply it: 

For shortterm trading (< 5day, likely intraday, esp if you know capitaland):

Check 12 jun to 20 jun. MACD--it's a definite downtrend. But wills show oversold from 10 jun. ie, what you can hope for is a short uptrend on a long downtrend. technical rebound to be caught.

The lowest low possible is given by the support in Feb and March, ~5.5, which it tested twice but did not break (ie, break of this would signal new downtrend. o/w, it's a rebound). Signal to watch was the doji on 13th, close of 5.8.

ie, break the doji, it's downward to 5.5. o/w, a rebound is on from there. Even odds either way. 5.5 is just a mark, it is not a "confirmed target".

Note: 16th june closed higher at 5.9, 17th june dipped to 5.65, but rebounded and closed 5.72, and then 18th june closed approx even high but higher low. Notably, the close of 18th is higher than 17th at  5.84. With williams staging an overall rebound from 10th to 18th.

ie, signal for a shortterm buy of capitaland came at 5.75 on 18th and 19th june. So you'd take it and exit by friday, with the daily range of capland as your target.

Relative to 5.5, 5.75 is expensive. But if you had known it'd not dip to that, but go up instead to 6.08? Isn't 5.75 cheap then?

And that is what I mean. Relativity. Price targets are artificial. Bottomline: keep fluid in trading. Empiricism trumps theory always.

Also: Keep in mind that during all these times, how much does the fundamental of the company change? Nothing, isn't it? So do fundamentals really move a market, or are they just a reason for movement? That markets ultimately move on only one thing: perception, isn't it?

That's where technicals come in.

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iPunter
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21-Jun-2008 19:03     
 
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That was another meaty treat from Elfin... 

Highly enlightening stuff all... Smiley

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HLJHLJ
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21-Jun-2008 17:42     
 
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Elfin,
thanks for sharing. Quite a lot to digest. Anyway, managed to learn some from you.

Regarding the qns posted  by you, using my methods, i think i would buy on 24 March because MACD and its red line cuts, William-7 is trending up, MA crossover closing up. Then sell on 9 March as william dropping.

On May, i would not buy because MACD is not confirmed yet. William on high side.

However, with my method, it seems that it is good time to buy these few days. Why? Because MACD is going to trend up, MA crossover closing . only problem is william-7 is high,but william-14 is ok. In other words, for medium term is it a buy signal.

Is my method correct?

Is my method



elfinchilde      ( Date: 21-Jun-2008 15:53) Posted:



thanks smartbear. :)

weekend's here, yea, no need to get obsessed over the market.

short lesson for the noobs while i'm bored now. haha. Capitaland is the eg cited, closing price of OHLC cited.

-------------------

On prices and relativity.

One of the key mistakes I've realised traders, even experienced ones, tend to make: we fix our price targets, and get wholly caught up in them. Partly because we read analysts' reports, and believe in their 'target prices.'

When really, price is a relative thing. And targets are moving targets, not fixed targets.

Say you had the power of foresight.

April 15, close of capitaland at 6.24. Would you buy it, if you knew that it would go up to 7.04 on Apr 28th?

Then a second time: 2nd June, capland at 6.35. Would you buy it, if you knew that by Jun 12, it'd fall to 5.85?

6.35 is cheap relative to 7.04, isn't it? But it's expensive relative to 5.85.

And that's precisely what I mean. Prices are relative. So what's an investor/trader to do? Apply this knowledge foreward. Hold in your head the idea of price targets, but always keep in mind they are relative and movable.

So apply it: 

For shortterm trading (< 5day, likely intraday, esp if you know capitaland):

Check 12 jun to 20 jun. MACD--it's a definite downtrend. But wills show oversold from 10 jun. ie, what you can hope for is a short uptrend on a long downtrend. technical rebound to be caught.

The lowest low possible is given by the support in Feb and March, ~5.5, which it tested twice but did not break (ie, break of this would signal new downtrend. o/w, it's a rebound). Signal to watch was the doji on 13th, close of 5.8.

ie, break the doji, it's downward to 5.5. o/w, a rebound is on from there. Even odds either way. 5.5 is just a mark, it is not a "confirmed target".

Note: 16th june closed higher at 5.9, 17th june dipped to 5.65, but rebounded and closed 5.72, and then 18th june closed approx even high but higher low. Notably, the close of 18th is higher than 17th at  5.84. With williams staging an overall rebound from 10th to 18th.

ie, signal for a shortterm buy of capitaland came at 5.75 on 18th and 19th june. So you'd take it and exit by friday, with the daily range of capland as your target.

Relative to 5.5, 5.75 is expensive. But if you had known it'd not dip to that, but go up instead to 6.08? Isn't 5.75 cheap then?

And that is what I mean. Relativity. Price targets are artificial. Bottomline: keep fluid in trading. Empiricism trumps theory always.

Also: Keep in mind that during all these times, how much does the fundamental of the company change? Nothing, isn't it? So do fundamentals really move a market, or are they just a reason for movement? That markets ultimately move on only one thing: perception, isn't it?

That's where technicals come in.

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elfinchilde
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21-Jun-2008 15:53     
 
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thanks smartbear. :)

weekend's here, yea, no need to get obsessed over the market.

short lesson for the noobs while i'm bored now. haha. Capitaland is the eg cited, closing price of OHLC cited.

-------------------

On prices and relativity.

One of the key mistakes I've realised traders, even experienced ones, tend to make: we fix our price targets, and get wholly caught up in them. Partly because we read analysts' reports, and believe in their 'target prices.'

When really, price is a relative thing. And targets are moving targets, not fixed targets.

Say you had the power of foresight.

April 15, close of capitaland at 6.24. Would you buy it, if you knew that it would go up to 7.04 on Apr 28th?

Then a second time: 2nd June, capland at 6.35. Would you buy it, if you knew that by Jun 12, it'd fall to 5.85?

6.35 is cheap relative to 7.04, isn't it? But it's expensive relative to 5.85.

And that's precisely what I mean. Prices are relative. So what's an investor/trader to do? Apply this knowledge foreward. Hold in your head the idea of price targets, but always keep in mind they are relative and movable.

So apply it: 

For shortterm trading (< 5day, likely intraday, esp if you know capitaland):

Check 12 jun to 20 jun. MACD--it's a definite downtrend. But wills show oversold from 10 jun. ie, what you can hope for is a short uptrend on a long downtrend. technical rebound to be caught.

The lowest low possible is given by the support in Feb and March, ~5.5, which it tested twice but did not break (ie, break of this would signal new downtrend. o/w, it's a rebound). Signal to watch was the doji on 13th, close of 5.8.

ie, break the doji, it's downward to 5.5. o/w, a rebound is on from there. Even odds either way. 5.5 is just a mark, it is not a "confirmed target".

Note: 16th june closed higher at 5.9, 17th june dipped to 5.65, but rebounded and closed 5.72, and then 18th june closed approx even high but higher low. Notably, the close of 18th is higher than 17th at  5.84. With williams staging an overall rebound from 10th to 18th.

ie, signal for a shortterm buy of capitaland came at 5.75 on 18th and 19th june. So you'd take it and exit by friday, with the daily range of capland as your target.

Relative to 5.5, 5.75 is expensive. But if you had known it'd not dip to that, but go up instead to 6.08? Isn't 5.75 cheap then?

And that is what I mean. Relativity. Price targets are artificial. Bottomline: keep fluid in trading. Empiricism trumps theory always.

Also: Keep in mind that during all these times, how much does the fundamental of the company change? Nothing, isn't it? So do fundamentals really move a market, or are they just a reason for movement? That markets ultimately move on only one thing: perception, isn't it?

That's where technicals come in.
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lookcc
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21-Jun-2008 13:33     
 
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a beautiful sunny day indeed, the "becks" is nice......cheers!


 

 
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iPunter
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21-Jun-2008 13:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I'm going to Big Splash later today... see you there... hehehe... Smiley
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AK_Francis
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21-Jun-2008 11:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		can't do much now and even next Mon. relax lah, such a sunny Sat, he he.
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iPunter
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21-Jun-2008 10:08     
 
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Elfin... :)

All prophets based their revelations on what they already know...

And that's why they are correct!

hehehe... Smiley 

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aleoleo
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21-Jun-2008 07:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		DJ first time close below 12000. Thus, MONDAY all the world market will be "hammered" down....think STI will dip down as well, i might touch low point as low as 2900..... will see......Smiley
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SmartBear
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21-Jun-2008 01:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		use MSCI Singapore

elfinchilde      ( Date: 20-Jun-2008 22:41) Posted:



no, fivestar. i mean STI will not dive.

don't look at intraday fluctuations, don't look at the index itself: remember that is made of lesser stocks than before. ie, very easy to give wrong impression. all you need are the three banks to go down, and it appears as though the entire market is tanking. But that's false impression: like i've been saying, it's a mixed market.

Look rationally at the charts of the counters you're into. We won't know til time proves it, of course, and i'd be first to bail if i were wrong hehe, but it does appear as though bottoms have been found for some counters already.

Avoid speculative pennies though. Go slow in parts. And keep a weather eye on gold. it's been sneaking up with married deals. o_0 (that's for those into index linked warrants).

3,000 is the pivot point. Pivots are fun to watch. Playtime.

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AK_Francis
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21-Jun-2008 01:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Asian economy is strong, less Vietnam financial jitter, STI dropping 3 digits next Mon is not likely. Unless, DJ dips 400 pts, though now is -ve 184.  
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