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Nostradamus Supreme	21-Mar-2007 21:59        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	International rubber prices have risen almost four-fold since hitting 30-year lows in 2001, driven by strong demand. They hit 26-year highs last June. Smit said the slow growth in natural rubber supply would lead to substitution, pushing down its share in rubber consumption towards 40% by 2020 from 43 percent in 2005. In Thailand, the world's top rubber producer, output would climb to 3.5 million tonnes by 2020 from about 3 million tonnes last year, he said, as new plantations were expected to mature in 2010 or 2011. This should help push up the total global output to 12.6-13.4 million tonnes in 2020, roughly in line with consumption. Over the past few years, Malaysian has raised its output to 1.1-1.2 million tonnes from about half a million as high prices prompted farmers to tap trees that were deserted in the 1990s. Smit said Indonesian output would reach 4 million tonnes by 2020, surpassing Thailand. Suharto Honggokusumo, executive director of the Rubber Association of Indonesia, said that country's production would grow 6% in 2007 from an estimated production of 2.4 million tonnes in 2006. India's state-run Rubber Board said Indian output stood at 831,000 tonnes in the year to March 2006. Vietnam, on the other hand, would produce about 1.1 million tonnes by 2020, almost double the current production, Smit said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	21-Mar-2007 13:34        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Natural rubber supply will be constrained until at least until 2012 as production won't keep pace with rising demand from China and India, according to the International Rubber Study Group. Output in Malaysia, the world's 3rd-biggest rubber producer, is likely to fall below 1 million metric tons by 2020 from 1.2 million tons this year as farmers cut down rubber trees to plant oil palms, Hidde Smit, secretary-general at the group, said yesterday in a conference held in Sanya, China. Rubber prices have more than doubled since 2002, prompting farmers in Thailand and Vietnam, the world's largest and 5th- largest producers, to plant more trees, which take about 5 years to reach commercial production. "It's been a very tight market that we've been experiencing since 2002," Smit said. The "situation will continue till at least 2012 when current new planting in other countries comes into production," he said. Rubber futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the benchmark for the commodity, reached 324.5 yen a kilogram on June 13, the highest since 1979. Markets are closed today for a holiday. China, the world's biggest user of rubber, will increase imports of the natural commodity by 8.7% in 2007 to feed rising demand from tyre and shoemakers, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. Supply growth in India, the 4th-largest producer, will be limited by its lack of suitable land and labour, Smit said. "We don't expect Indian production to exceed 1 million tons by 2020," he said. Global production of natural rubber under normal weather conditions will reach 12.6 million tons in 2020 and consumption of all types of rubber will rise to 32 million tons, Smit said. Synthetic rubber made from crude oil will plug the shortfall. "As for prices, we have no way of predicting," Smit said. "But worries about long-term availability and current high prices of natural rubber induce further substitution." Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are the world's largest natural rubber producers and exporters, accounting for about 94 percent of global production.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	21-Mar-2007 00:15        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Rubber futures gained further ground on TOCOM, expanding gains on renewed buying toward the close. The most active August 2007 contract climbed to an intraday high of 272.2 yen at the end of the session, up 5.4 yen from Monday. Rubber futures drew short covering at the start following Monday's late advance. Sentiment firmed on the March contract's higher start with a week before its expiration on Monday. Sentiment weakened at one point as buyers moved to cash in on the gains. In the afternoon, buying gathered steam again on the back of rises in oil products and other futures.
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Nostradamus Supreme	20-Mar-2007 13:46        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You're welcome, Happy07. Oil prices are up, so Oakwell may go up too. Crude oil rose in New York, snapping a 3-day decline, on speculation that U.S. gasoline inventories fell last week as the peak demand season approaches.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	20-Mar-2007 13:26        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures climbed nearly 2% to a two-week high on Tuesday in an extension of the previous day's rally, with a rise in other commodities such as gold continuing to provide support. The benchmark TOCOM rubber contract for  August delivery rose as high as 272.0 yen per kg, up 1.95% from Monday's close. It was trading a touch down at 269.8 yen at 0348 GMT. Physical rubber prices were estimated to be up 1-3 cents per kg in line with TOCOM's rise. Elsewhere bullish news was heard from China, already the world's largest rubber consumer and importer. A senior Chinese industry official said on Tuesday that the country would continue to see double-digit annual growth in rubber consumption and imports through 2010, as strong growth in tyre exports outpaces moderate gains in domestic rubber output. Fan Rende, vice-chairman of the China Rubber Industry Association (CRIA), told a conference that China was expected to consume 5.05 million tonnes of rubber this year, including 2.35 million tonnes of natural rubber. "China's reliance on the world market for natural rubber will become heavier and heavier," he said. China was expected to import 1.75 million tonnes of natural rubber in 2007.
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Happy07 Member	19-Mar-2007 20:45        Happy07 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Thks Nostradamus. Oil futures upturn? So I guess Oak maybe another good buy :)
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Nostradamus Supreme	19-Mar-2007 20:31        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	The benchmark, most distant August 2007 contract ended at 266.8 yen per kilogram, up 4.1 yen from Friday. The contract rose, reflecting oil futures' upturn and gains in gold futures and US$.
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Nostradamus Supreme	19-Mar-2007 12:57        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures bounced back on Monday, gaining by more than 1% as strong commodities prices and a softer yen lent support. The benchmark August rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange initially fell about 0.6% due to the yen's strength against the dollar. A stronger yen makes dollar-based commodities, such as rubber, cheaper for Japanese investors, encouraging them to sell yen-based TOCOM futures to stop further losses. However, TOCOM rubber recouped losses in tandem with a strengthening dollar. Around 0401 GMT, the benchmark TOCOM rubber contract for August delivery was up 3.9 yen or about 1.5 percent at 266.6 yen per kg from Friday's close. The dollar extended gains and rose more than a yen from the day's lows on Monday as a rebound in Tokyo shares eased fears about investors further cutting back on risk assets. It rose to a high of about 117.45 yen , up from the day's low of 116.25 yen. TOCOM gold's strong performance also inspired rubber's rise. The benchmark February TOCOM contract rose as high as 2,499 yen per gram, up 37 yen. Activity in the physical market was muted as traders were still assessing the market at the start of the week. Interest, however, appeared to concentrate on Indonesian and Mayalsian grades due to the premium commanded by rubber from top producer Thailand, traders said. "Rubber in Thailand both RSS and STR is commanding a fat premium, so that is why buyers are keen to look at Indonesian and Malyasian rubber," a trader in the southern town of Hat Yai, Thailand's rubber hub said. Thailand's wintering season is slowly drawing to a close, but traders said it would last for a few more weeks and a recovery in supplies was only likely to take place next month. The rainy season in Indonesia is almost over. This had led supplies to tighten, but traders expect rubber supplies from Indonesia to increase gradually.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	16-Mar-2007 12:38        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Crude rubber stocks held at Japanese warehouses fell 5.4% to 17,807 tonnes by March 10 from 18,819 tonnes on Feb. 28, the Rubber Trade Association of Japan said on Friday. Traders see domestic stocks still high even after dropping nearly 9% from this year's peak of 19,504 tonnes reached on Feb. 20. The latest stock level was about 35% above the year-earlier level of 12,522 tonnes. Physical rubber supplies typically fall around this time of the year due to the annual dry wintering season in the world's top producer Thailand when production falls. But the market was not worried as Japanese rubber futures prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, which set the trend for the Asian regional physical market, have been under pressure in the last several weeks. TOCOM rubber and other commodities were vulnerable to sell-offs as investment funds were keen to pull out of commodities to lighten positions in risk assets at times when global equities markets were unstable. On Friday, benchmark TOCOM rubber for August delivery closed the morning session at 259.4 yen per kg, down 2.1% as a fall of oil prices spurred investors to liquidate contracts. U.S. crude futures traded below US$58 a barrel, near the New York settlement at its lowest in a month and a half after OPEC's widely expected decision to keep existing oil output curbs in place.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	15-Mar-2007 13:13        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures rose nearly 1% on Thursday, recovering from recent falls as oil prices recovered from a one-month low and U.S. stocks rose. The benchmark contract for August delivery on TOCOM ended the morning session at 265.2 yen per kg up 0.8% from Wednesday's close. It rose to a session high of 268.4 yen after a rise in the US$ eased investor concerns about a fall in yen-based TOCOM contracts. At 0309 GMT, the dollar traded around 117.19 yen , recovering from below 116 yen on Wednesday. It fell to 115.16 yen on March 5, the lowest since Dec. U.S. crude futures traded around US$58.30 a barrel in early Asia, above a New York low of US$57.30, after a U.S. government report showed gasoline stockpiles fell. In the physical rubber market, prices were quoted higher, tracking the rise in TOCOM. Trading was sluggish as buyers waited for prices to fall while producers balked at the high price of raw materials, traders said. In Indonesia, the rainy season is almost over and supply should increase gradually, traders said. But raw material prices in Indonesia remained buoyant as demand exceeded supply and most users were keen to buy cheaper Indonesian SIR20. In Thailand, supply is falling as the country is still in the wintering dry season when latex output falls. The dry season is expected to last until the end of March.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	14-Mar-2007 17:06        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures closed 1.7% lower on Wednesday, recovering from early falls on short-covering. The benchmark rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange  for August delivery settled at 263.0 yen per kg, down 1.65% from Tuesday's close at 267.4 yen. It fell as much as 9.6 yen to an intra-day low of 257.8 yen, the lowest since March 9. Traders said they attributed the falls in early trade to heavy long liquidation, tracking falls on stock markets. The fall encouraged players to liquidate several futures contracts, resulting in losses in other commodities such as gold and oil, which usually set the tone for rubber futures. The firmer Japanese yen also kept pressure on prices.
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Nostradamus Supreme	14-Mar-2007 11:13        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures fell on Wednesday, snapping a 4-day rally after a slide in U.S. stocks renewed investor concerns about riskier assets and triggered a broad sell-off in commodities. The benchmark contract for August delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange fell 1.7% to 263.0 yen as of 0036 GMT. A fall in the dollar versus the yen also hurt the appetite of Japanese investors for the yen-based contracts. The dollar has resumed a downturn toward a three-month low versus the yen this week as investors unwound risky trades due to growing concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. On Tuesday, U.S. stocks saw their second-biggest sell-off of the year as mounting losses in the subprime mortgage sector dragged down shares of companies with any exposure to the domestic housing market. The Tokyo market has been firmly underpinned by a 200-day MA, which stood at 254.9 yen for the August contract as of Tuesday's close, since early January. The dollar fell as low as 115.88 early in the Tokyo session, edging towards 115.16 yen touched earlier in the month for the first time since December.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	13-Mar-2007 21:39        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Rubber futures on TOCOM extended gains to a 4th day, wiping out the early losses on renewed buying toward the morning close. The most active August 2007 contract ended at 267.4 yen per kg, up 1.1 yen from Monday. Rubber futures turned lower at the start as long liquidation grew on the back of declines in oil and gold futures. The losses expanded further after the opening. But buying became dominant late in the morning, reflecting a rally in kerosene and other oil futures. Rubber futures maintained strength in the afternoon, drawing buybacks by day traders.
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Nostradamus Supreme	13-Mar-2007 11:34        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Asian physical rubber prices were unchanged in thin trade on Tuesday despite a modest rise in futures prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Traders said buyers were waiting for a clear direction in the physical market after TOCOM's correction last week. TOCOM's benchmark rubber contract inched 0.3 yen higher to 266.6 yen per kg in a lacklustre market. "TOCOM rose a little, but the momentum was not strong enough to push physical prices higher," a trader in the southern town of Hat Yai, Thailand's rubber hub, told Reuters.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	12-Mar-2007 17:25        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures ended higher on Monday on speculative buying, but gains were curbed by falling oil prices. The benchmark rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange for August delivery settled at at 266.3 yen per kg, up 2.2 yen from Friday's close. "It could be speculative buying after the recent falls last week and also some short-covering," one dealer said. Dealers said they expected prices to move in the narrow range of 260-270 yen as there was no change in fundamentals.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	12-Mar-2007 12:44        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures rose a touch on Monday, despite a fall in crude oil prices weighing on the market. The benchmark rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange for August delivery ended the morning session at 265.8 yen per kg, up 1.7 yen from Friday's close. But Friday's attempt by some speculators to test a downside failed, giving psychological support to the TOCOM market, analysts said. However, the rise of rubber futures was limited by oil prices, as U.S. crude fell below US$60 a barrel, extending Friday's decline amid concerns about excess supply ahead of an OPEC meeting later this week. Tokyo analysts have say the TOCOM rubber rubber rally which began in late Nov could be over now despite the market heading into a season when production falls. Also, a steady recovery by the dollar against the yen was seen as a plus for yen-based TOCOM futures as a stronger dollar usually inflates yen-based prices of commodities whose international prices are based in the U.S. currency. At 0250 GMT on Monday, the dollar was at 118.22 yen. It hit a three-month low of 115.16 yen on Monday last week. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted higher on Monday, tracking the small rise on TOCOM. Trading was active with Japanese and South Korean users in the market, traders said. "Buyers thought that the downward trend might have ended as TOCOM rebounded, so they placed orders before prices went higher," a dealer in Singapore said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	11-Mar-2007 12:11        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 2  Alert Admin	Natural rubber prices, which surged to records last year, may fall later this year as car production growth slows in China, the world's biggest consumer of the commodity. For more details, pls refer to my post dated 21-Feb-2007.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	10-Mar-2007 00:13        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Rubber futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange generally extended gains Friday, wiping out early losses on renewed buying in late trading. The benchmark, most distant August 2007 contract settled at 264.1 yen per kilogram, rising 1.4 yen from Thursday. Contracts from April to July were 1.0-1.2 yen higher. The spot March contract closed 0.2 yen lower. Rubber futures came under long liquidation in early trading on the back of declines in gasoline and other oil futures in the absence of strong pegs specific to rubber. Sentiment weakened further as buyers moved for weekend repositioning. But sellers' buybacks became active in the afternoon, pushing many contracts back into plus territory.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	09-Mar-2007 12:21        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Hi BR4ever, No. It's TOCOM data. I present from all perspectives - both good and bad. Not one-sided views. Tokyo (TOCOM) rubber futures fell 1.2% on Friday as weak technical sentiment provoked more profit taking by investment funds wanting to square off positions ahead of the weekend. The benchmark rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange for August delivery ended the morning session at 259.5 yen per kg, down 1.2%. Fund operators and speculators could be eager to test the key contract below the 200-day MA of around 255 yen and the 100-day MA of around 243 yen. Sentiment on rubber remained bearish despite recoveries on stock markets and a weaker yen, traders said. They blamed stock market falls and a surge of the yen triggered by unwinding of the yen carry trade for heavy sell-offs in yen-based commodities over the last week. The rally in TOCOM rubber since late November could be over even though this was the season when production falls, Tokyo analysts said. Concerns about supply were growing, but Japanese investors were not worried as domestic rubber inventory levels remained high, dealers said. Crude rubber stocks held at Japanese warehouses amounted to 19,504 tonnes on Feb. 20, up 5.5 percent from 18,494 tonnes on Feb. 10, the Rubber Trade Association of Japan said last week.
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Nostradamus Supreme	09-Mar-2007 00:15        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Rubber futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) bounced back, attracting buying on gains in gold and oil futures and the yen's retreat against the dollar. The benchmark, most distant August 2007 contract settled at 262.7 yen per kg, rising 3.5 yen from Wednesday. Contracts from March to July were 4.4-6.4 yen higher. Rubber futures opened in mixed sentiment amid loss-cut liquidation by buyers following the previous day's steep declines and sellers' buybacks to establish profits. Buying became dominant late in the morning following climbs in other commodity futures and the yen's downturn. Prices fluctuated narrowly at higher ground in the afternoon.
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