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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
trader88.sg
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30-Jul-2008 18:55     
 
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CPF discussion in STI thrread? Any relation? Blur leh.

More discussion on CPF = STI cheong? Blur leh.

Please enlighten. Blur leh.
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AK_Francis
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30-Jul-2008 17:41     
 
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Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers."
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ak retirement acc was 90k in 2006. now not bad leh, touching 100k liao owing to above 55 allowances and 4 % yrly interest. I think putting the $ in CPF is much viable owing to higher interest rate.

as my wife and I medical fee are full sub, my medisave is cap at around 15k instead of 32.5k before retirement.
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Farmer
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30-Jul-2008 13:41     
 
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Here's a group of wise gentlemen. Indeed, CPF is "money not enough" thus, cannot totally depend on it  for one's retirement.

I foresee minimum sum of $120k is not the end of the story come 2013 taking into consideration the adjustment for yearly inflations. Currently till Jul 09, ms already set at 106k, with 4 more yrs to go, it will exceed $120k for sure. Beyond 2013, there will be endless yearly added adjustment for inflations till you reach 55 yrs old when SA will convert to RA that's when they'll lock-in your actual required ms amount.

With high housing price and lower ceiling towards employer's contribution rate, i expect only few working class be able to hit their set ms target when reaching 55 unless they divest their housing equity.

For me, i aim to pay out all my outstanding loan asap then transfer the excess OA to SA till maximum allowable to let it compound. Hopefully, it will fund part of my retirement expenditure after 55. Cheers!
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baseerahmed
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30-Jul-2008 09:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		count me in too elfinchilde .. hahaha !
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ozone2002
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30-Jul-2008 09:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hope STI chiong a lot a lot ..so i can put put a lot a lot also..haha
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Blastoff
Elite
30-Jul-2008 07:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		DOW up 266.48 and CO down, let's see how much STI will cheong. Smiley
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elfinchilde
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29-Jul-2008 23:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yay! finally another singaporean who thinks like me!  most will think i'm nutso, but yuppers, i intend at most to bankrupt CPF for housing. otherwise, i don't even bother counting what's in it.
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Livermore
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29-Jul-2008 22:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yeah just keep the minimum sum there. I never calculate my retirement fund based on CPF since you never know what the rules will be like in future. Just use the CPF for housing.   
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elfinchilde
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29-Jul-2008 22:49     
 
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yuppers, livermore.  

on both TA and FA, i would buy ML now but not sell it. (DCA does take skill though.)

And yes, don't depend on CPF. i perceive that we're from the same generation then: where min sum of 120k is locked up, and it can't be redrawn as one lump sum? not to mention i wouldn't be surprised if they keep shifting the redrawal date later and later. so it simply made more financial sense to me to write off the cpf sum in my calculations, rather than depend on something that cannot be depended upon.

 
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CWQuah
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29-Jul-2008 22:45     
 
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Just think of it as a lifelong 20% tax as long as you work. Rebates only after 65 or whatever future minimum withdrawal age it may be. Or maybe only partial rebates on a regular monthly basis in the form of annuities.

Haiz.... nowadays even 4-room flats are going for >$300k. That's the only real purpose I see CPF for - sponsor part of the costs for TEMPORARY flat ownership.
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Livermore
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29-Jul-2008 22:37     
 
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Hi Elf,

I have the same idea. I never regarded CPF for my retirement.

It's ok for Temasek to buy ML now but not to sell.



elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 22:30) Posted:



...if both temasek and ML refuse to release the new px of the offer shares, how can reuters calculate that temasek's px is 21?

i do agree with 178investors though: longterm, it's a blue chip bank still. 5-7 years down, the next bull run, the value would be high as this current crisis is forgotten. Markets move in a rhythm. Plus, at the low, it makes more technical sense to buy than to sell.

and hehe, no lah, not tearing my hair out. ultimately, it's their money, not mine: if i don't tear my hair out over ML's losses, or UBS, why should i care about temasek? the fact is, for me personally, i've never considered CFP as my money: i write off the whole sum as being 'not mine'.

trader88 has a v good point: political diplomacy. The gains we get from FTAs and suchlike will likely far outweigh whatever loss that temasek currently sits on.

STI should move up. my own expectation is 3,100 by 2nd week aug. let's see if it'll materialise. :)

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elfinchilde
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29-Jul-2008 22:30     
 
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...if both temasek and ML refuse to release the new px of the offer shares, how can reuters calculate that temasek's px is 21?

i do agree with 178investors though: longterm, it's a blue chip bank still. 5-7 years down, the next bull run, the value would be high as this current crisis is forgotten. Markets move in a rhythm. Plus, at the low, it makes more technical sense to buy than to sell.

and hehe, no lah, not tearing my hair out. ultimately, it's their money, not mine: if i don't tear my hair out over ML's losses, or UBS, why should i care about temasek? the fact is, for me personally, i've never considered CFP as my money: i write off the whole sum as being 'not mine'.

trader88 has a v good point: political diplomacy. The gains we get from FTAs and suchlike will likely far outweigh whatever loss that temasek currently sits on.

STI should move up. my own expectation is 3,100 by 2nd week aug. let's see if it'll materialise. :)
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Blastoff
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29-Jul-2008 22:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If the calculations are right plus DOW close positive... we may see STI moving up.... Smiley

jackjames      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 21:54) Posted:



Temasek said on Tuesday that Merrill will give it a rebate of $2.5 billion on its original $4.4 billion stock purchase following the U.S. firm's decision to sell new shares.

Temasek will plough that money, plus another $900 million, back into new Merrill stock, potentially increasing the state-run fund's stake in one of the best-known U.S. banks to more than 10 percent.

The rebate, announced less than two weeks after Merrill posted a $4.9 billion second-quarter loss, effectively reduces the cost of Temasek's existing shares in the U.S. bank by more than half to $21 a share, according to Reuters calculations.

Neither Merrill nor Temasek disclosed the price at which the new Merrill shares would be offered.

WOW... after cost averaging (plus the rebate) , their purchase price now is $21 !!! what a super good deal for Temasek, from $48 to $21.. Temasek this time sure win !

 

 
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jackjames
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29-Jul-2008 21:54     
 
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Temasek said on Tuesday that Merrill will give it a rebate of $2.5 billion on its original $4.4 billion stock purchase following the U.S. firm's decision to sell new shares.

Temasek will plough that money, plus another $900 million, back into new Merrill stock, potentially increasing the state-run fund's stake in one of the best-known U.S. banks to more than 10 percent.

The rebate, announced less than two weeks after Merrill posted a $4.9 billion second-quarter loss, effectively reduces the cost of Temasek's existing shares in the U.S. bank by more than half to $21 a share, according to Reuters calculations.

Neither Merrill nor Temasek disclosed the price at which the new Merrill shares would be offered.

WOW... after cost averaging (plus the rebate) , their purchase price now is $21 !!! what a super good deal for Temasek, from $48 to $21.. Temasek this time sure win !

 

 
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jackjames
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29-Jul-2008 21:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		ding ding ding.. bell just started.. Merrill Lynch USD 22.02 !!!!? ooucch... will it touch USD 19 today?
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trader88.sg
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29-Jul-2008 18:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I totally agree with 178investor. Probably by investing in ML, Temasek is doing a "national service" to ML as well as US, thus bolstering the good ties between the two countries. If the "national service" can help SG make more money in the future, it will be a bonus.

178investors      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 17:48) Posted:

yalor... no pt tearing our hairs out... we're not privy to many of the informations regarding how the equity deals (past and future) are structured. Just hope temasek investments come out on top in the end.

The subprime episodes remind me of the Asian Financial Crisis. At that time, Indonesia was very badly battered. To the extent of bringing down Suharto's regime. No investors want to buy indonesian assets. It took courage on the part of Temasek to buy some of the banks and telcos in indonesia during that chaotic period. At that time, temasek was like doing so-called "national service" for indonesia, trying to bolster foreign investors' confidence in indonesia. Even our local opposition politician accused our garbermen of using state money to help suharto. Now that indonesia is stable again and temasek's investment in their banks and telcos are now looking to be wise investments afterall, many of those who missed the big piece of meat are now crying "foul". Those rotten idiots must have forgotten the hands that once extended help to it. Instead of gratitudes, they now say temasek breaks indonesia law and must divest its stakes in banks and telcos.

Not sure if many years from now and Temasek/GIC's investments in subprime banks turn out to be another wise investments. Will the angmos cry"foul" too? The chinese has a saying "don't forget the water source that quench your thirst" but angmos not chinese just like indonesians also not chinese.

Cheers, no pt brooding ... in life, better to stay optimistic. Cheers.



elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 16:36) Posted:



em...178, not so easy a calculation...

for one thing: they're plowing the money back into new shares, not just taking the 'capital reduction', so to speak. and they're putting in a further 0.9 bil.

for another: raising share capital => dilution of existing value. So actual px of what temasek owns, and its value, has to be calculated by:

A) Total Cost:

(87mil shares x cost price at US$48) + US$3.4bil - 2.5bil = 5.076bil.

B) No: of shares:

87mil + (3.4bil/offer price of shares) = _____

C) A divided by B will give the average cost price of Temasek's new holdings.

---

Calculation of ML's new value:

A) 8.5bil + 1.3bil options + existing share capital = _total new capital of ML____

B) existing share float + new shares = new share float 

C) Dilultion of NAV and EPS has to be calculated by new float/existing float in % terms, taking that %, and applying it to the existing EPS/NAV.


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178investors
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29-Jul-2008 17:48     
 
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yalor... no pt tearing our hairs out... we're not privy to many of the informations regarding how the equity deals (past and future) are structured. Just hope temasek investments come out on top in the end.

The subprime episodes remind me of the Asian Financial Crisis. At that time, Indonesia was very badly battered. To the extent of bringing down Suharto's regime. No investors want to buy indonesian assets. It took courage on the part of Temasek to buy some of the banks and telcos in indonesia during that chaotic period. At that time, temasek was like doing so-called "national service" for indonesia, trying to bolster foreign investors' confidence in indonesia. Even our local opposition politician accused our garbermen of using state money to help suharto. Now that indonesia is stable again and temasek's investment in their banks and telcos are now looking to be wise investments afterall, many of those who missed the big piece of meat are now crying "foul". Those rotten idiots must have forgotten the hands that once extended help to it. Instead of gratitudes, they now say temasek breaks indonesia law and must divest its stakes in banks and telcos.

Not sure if many years from now and Temasek/GIC's investments in subprime banks turn out to be another wise investments. Will the angmos cry"foul" too? The chinese has a saying "don't forget the water source that quench your thirst" but angmos not chinese just like indonesians also not chinese.

Cheers, no pt brooding ... in life, better to stay optimistic. Cheers.



elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 16:36) Posted:



em...178, not so easy a calculation...

for one thing: they're plowing the money back into new shares, not just taking the 'capital reduction', so to speak. and they're putting in a further 0.9 bil.

for another: raising share capital => dilution of existing value. So actual px of what temasek owns, and its value, has to be calculated by:

A) Total Cost:

(87mil shares x cost price at US$48) + US$3.4bil - 2.5bil = 5.076bil.

B) No: of shares:

87mil + (3.4bil/offer price of shares) = _____

C) A divided by B will give the average cost price of Temasek's new holdings.

---

Calculation of ML's new value:

A) 8.5bil + 1.3bil options + existing share capital = _total new capital of ML____

B) existing share float + new shares = new share float 

C) Dilultion of NAV and EPS has to be calculated by new float/existing float in % terms, taking that %, and applying it to the existing EPS/NAV.

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novicex
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29-Jul-2008 16:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		thanks for timely reminder elf :)

elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 15:13) Posted:

hehe, in one word: "face".

but eh, the maths don't work out. ML pays Temasek 2.5bil, but they buy 3.4bil. that's instant net loss of 0.9bil. (-_-")....

anyway, for today's market, it's a dip on low vol. And pxes are near their previous lows. ie, don't sell in a panic pls. the rebound will likely be swift and fast.



novena_33      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 09:12) Posted:

Seriously, I just wonder why they still want to put $ there…. Well they are the BB... me just small fry….never will understand y they do that…..


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CWQuah
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29-Jul-2008 16:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I agree on the part not to panic sell. HSI futures are quite bullish.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 15:13) Posted:

hehe, in one word: "face".

but eh, the maths don't work out. ML pays Temasek 2.5bil, but they buy 3.4bil. that's instant net loss of 0.9bil. (-_-")....

anyway, for today's market, it's a dip on low vol. And pxes are near their previous lows. ie, don't sell in a panic pls. the rebound will likely be swift and fast.



novena_33      ( Date: 29-Jul-2008 09:12) Posted:

Seriously, I just wonder why they still want to put $ there…. Well they are the BB... me just small fry….never will understand y they do that…..


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elfinchilde
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29-Jul-2008 16:36     
 
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em...178, not so easy a calculation...

for one thing: they're plowing the money back into new shares, not just taking the 'capital reduction', so to speak. and they're putting in a further 0.9 bil.

for another: raising share capital => dilution of existing value. So actual px of what temasek owns, and its value, has to be calculated by:

A) Total Cost:

(87mil shares x cost price at US$48) + US$3.4bil - 2.5bil = 5.076bil.

B) No: of shares:

87mil + (3.4bil/offer price of shares) = _____

C) A divided by B will give the average cost price of Temasek's new holdings.

---

Calculation of ML's new value:

A) 8.5bil + 1.3bil options + existing share capital = _total new capital of ML____

B) existing share float + new shares = new share float 

C) Dilultion of NAV and EPS has to be calculated by new float/existing float in % terms, taking that %, and applying it to the existing EPS/NAV.
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