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krisluke
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29-Dec-2012 17:03

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For Senate leaders, a mission impossible from Obama

* Obama impatient as " fiscal cliff" deadline nears

* Senators Reid and McConnell are key players

* " Fiscal cliff" tax hikes, spending cuts just days away

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Following a Friday meeting with congressional leaders, an impatient and annoyed President Barack Obama said it was " mind boggling" that Congress has been unable to fix a " fiscal cliff" mess that everyone has known about for more than a year.

He then dispatched Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, on a mind-boggling mission: coming up with a bipartisan bill to break the " fiscal cliff" stalemate in the most partisan and gridlocked U.S. Congress of modern times - in about 48 hours.

Reid and McConnell, veteran tacticians known for their own long-running feud, have been down this road before.

Their last joint venture didn't turn out so well. It was the deal in August 2011 to avoid a U.S. default that set the stage for the current mess. That effort, like this one, stemmed from a grand deficit-reduction scheme that turned into a bust.

But they have never had the odds so stacked against them as they try to avert the " fiscal cliff" - sweeping tax increases set to begin on Tuesday and deep, automatic government spending cuts set to start on Wednesday, combined worth $600 billion.

The substantive differences are only part of the challenge. Other obstacles include concerns about who gets blamed for what and the legacy of distrust among members of Congress.

Any successful deal will require face-saving measures for Republicans and Democrats alike.

" Ordinary folks, they do their jobs, they meet deadlines, they sit down and they discuss things, and then things happen," Obama told reporters. " If there are disagreements, they sort though the disagreements. The notion that our elected leadership can't do the same thing is mind-boggling to them."

CORE DISAGREEMENT

The core disagreement between Republicans and Democrats is tough enough. It revolves around the low tax rates first put in place under Republican former President George W. Bush that expire at year's end. Republicans would extend them for everyone. Democrats would extend them for everyone except the wealthiest taxpayers.

The first step for Reid and McConnell may be to find a formula acceptable to their own parties in the Senate.

While members of the Senate, more than members of the House of Representatives, have expressed flexibility on taxes, it's far from a sure thing in a body that ordinarily requires not just a majority of the 100-member Senate to pass a bill, but a super-majority of 60 members.

With 51 Democrats, two independents who vote with the Democrats and 47 Republicans, McConnell and Reid may have to agree to suspend the 60-vote rule.

Getting a bill through the Republican-controlled House may be much tougher. The conservative wing of the House, composed of many lawmakers aligned with the Tea Party movement who fear being targeted by anti-tax activists in primary elections in 2014, has shown it will not vote for a bill that raises taxes on anyone, even if it means defying Republican House Speaker John Boehner.

Many Democrats are wedded to the opposite view - and have vowed not to support continuing the Bush-era tax rates for people earning more than $250,000 a year.

Some senators are wary of the procedural conditions House Republicans are demanding. Boehner is insisting the Senate start its work with a bill already passed by the House months ago that would continue all Bush-era tax cuts for another year. The Democratic-controlled Senate may amend the Republican bill, he says, but it must be the House bill.

For Boehner, it's the regular order when considering revenue measures, which the U.S. Constitution says must originate in the House.

SHIFT BLAME

As some Democrats see it, it's a way to shift blame if the enterprise goes down in flames. House Republicans would be able to claim that since they had already done their part by passing a bill, the Senate should take the blame for plunging the nation off the " cliff."

And that could bring public wrath, currently centered mostly on Republicans, onto the heads of Democrats.

Voters may indeed be looking for someone to blame if they see their paychecks shrink as taxes rise or their retirement savings dwindle as a result of a plunge in global markets.

If Reid and McConnell succeed, there could be political ramifications for each side. For example, a deal containing any income tax hikes could complicate McConnell's own 2014 re-election effort in which small-government, anti-tax Tea Party activists are threatening to mount a challenge.

If Obama and his fellow Democrats are perceived as giving in too much, it could embolden Republicans to mount challenge after challenge, possibly handcuffing the president before his second term even gets off the ground.

It could be a sprint to the finish. One Democratic aide expected " negotiation for a day." If the aide is correct, the world would know by late on Saturday or early on Sunday if Washington's political dysfunction is about to reach a new, possibly devastating, low.

If Reid and McConnell reach a deal, it would then be up to the full Senate and House to vote, possibly as early as Sunday.

Reid and McConnell have been through bitter fights before. The deficit reduction and debt limit deal that finally was secured last year was a brawl that ended only when the two leaders agreed to a complicated plan that secured about $1 trillion in savings, but really postponed until later a more meaningful plan to restore the country's fiscal health.

That effort led to the automatic spending cuts that form part of the " fiscal cliff."

Just months later, in December 2011, Reid and McConnell were going through a tough fight over extending a payroll tax cut.

In both instances, it was resistance from conservative House Republicans that complicated efforts, just as is the case now with the " fiscal cliff." (Editing by Fred Barbash and Will Dunham)

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krisluke
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29-Dec-2012 17:00

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US Senate leaders to make last-ditch 'fiscal cliff' effort

U.S. President Obama speaks about the fiscal cliff to members of the media in the White House Briefing Room

* Time running out for deal on taxes, spending

* Obama says he's " modestly optimistic"

* " Fiscal cliff" focus now on Senate

* U.S. stocks indexes drop 1 percent

By Roberta Rampton and Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON, Dec 28 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and U.S. congressional leaders agreed on Friday to make a final effort to prevent the United States from going over the " fiscal cliff," setting off intense bargaining over Americans' tax rates as a New Year's Eve deadline looms.

With only days left to avoid steep tax hikes and spending cuts that could cause a recession, two Senate veterans will try to forge a deal that has eluded the White House and Congress for months.

Obama said he was " modestly optimistic" an agreement could be found. But neither side appeared to give much ground at a White House meeting of congressional leaders on Friday.

What they did agree on was to task Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate majority leader, and Mitch McConnell, who heads the chamber's Republican minority, with reaching a budget agreement by Sunday at the latest.

" The hour for immediate action is here. It is now. We're now at the point where in just four days, every American's tax rates are scheduled to go up by law. Every American's paycheck will get considerably smaller. And that would be the wrong thing to do," Obama told reporters.

A total of $600 billion in tax hikes and automatic cuts to government spending will start kicking in on Tuesday - New Year's Day - if politicians cannot reach a deal. Economists fear the measures will push the U.S. economy into a recession.

Pessimism about the fiscal cliff helped push U.S. stocks down on Friday for a fifth straight day. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 158.20 points, or 1.21 percent. Retailers are blaming worries about the " fiscal cliff" for lackluster Christmas season shopping.

Under the plan hashed out on Friday, any agreement between McConnell and Reid would be backed by the Senate and then approved in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives before the end of the year.

But the House could well be the graveyard of any accord.

A core of fiscal conservatives there strongly opposes Obama's efforts to raise taxes for the wealthiest as part of a plan to close America's budget deficit. House Republicans also want to see Obama commit to major spending cuts.

Talks between Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner collapsed last week when several dozen Republicans defied their leader and rejected a plan to raise rates for those earning $1 million and above.

A Democratic aide said Boehner stuck mainly to " talking points" in Friday's White House meeting, with the message that the House had acted on the budget and it was now time for the Senate to move.

TALKS ON 'BIG NUMBERS'

The two Senate leaders and their aides will plunge into talks on Saturday that will focus mainly on the threshold for raising income taxes on households with upper-level earnings, a Democratic aide said. Analysts say both sides could agree on raising taxes for households earning more than $400,000 or $500,000 a year.

The pair will also discuss whether the estate tax should be kept at current low levels or allowed to rise, the aide said.

Democrat Reid warned of tough talks.

" It's not easy, we're dealing with big numbers, and some of that stuff we do is somewhat complicated," he said.

McConnell described Friday's White House summit, also attended by Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, as " a good meeting."

" So we'll be working hard to try to see if we can get there in the next 24 hours. So I'm hopeful and optimistic," he said.

If things cannot be worked out between the Senate leaders, Obama said he wanted both chambers in Congress to vote on a backup plan that would increase taxes only for households with more than $250,000 of annual income.

The plan would also extend unemployment insurance for about 2 million Americans and set up a framework for a larger deficit reduction deal next year.

There are signs in the options market that investor fear is taking hold. The CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX, the market's favored anxiety indicator, has remained at relatively low levels throughout this process, but it moved on Friday above 22, the highest level since June.

But some in the market were resigned to Washington going beyond the New Year's Day deadline, as long as a serious agreement on deficit reduction comes out of the talks in early January.

" Regardless of whether the government resolves the issues now, any deal can easily be retroactive. We're not as concerned with January 1 as the market seems to be," said Richard Weiss, a senior money manager at American Century Investments.

Another component of the " fiscal cliff" - $109 billion in automatic spending cuts to military and domestic programs - is set to kick in on Wednesday.

S& P rating agency said on Friday the fiscal cliff impasse did not affect the U.S. sovereign rating.

That lifted the immediate threat of a downgrade from the agency, which cut the United States' triple-A rating in August, 2011 in an unprecedented move after a similar partisan budget fight.

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krisluke
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28-Dec-2012 22:32

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Expectations low for White House 'fiscal cliff' meeting

U.S. President Obama speaks about the fiscal cliff to members of the media in the White House Briefing Room

By Fred Barbash

WASHINGTON, Dec 28 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and congressional leaders were set to meet on Friday for the first time since November with no sign of progress in resolving their differences over the federal budget and low expectations for a " fiscal cliff" deal before Jan. 1.

Instead, members of Congress are increasingly looking at the period immediately after the Dec. 31 deadline to come up with a retroactive fix to avoid the steep tax hikes and sharp spending cuts that economists have said could plunge the country into another recession.

With taxes on all Americans set to rise when the low tax rates established by President George W. Bush expire on Dec. 31, lawmakers would be able to come back in January and take a more politically palatable vote on cutting some of the tax rates.

Pessimism on the deadline being met was shared by many market analysts. Noting that the U.S. House of Representatives wasn't even convening until Sunday, Daiwa Securities economist Emily Nicols said " markets still expect a deal even if it does go into January."

The new factor in the mix was involvement by Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who said Thursday he had held conversations with Obama and expected a new proposal from the president that he would consider.

The White House spent much of Thursday stifling expectations for any new offer from Obama, beyond the limited fallback plan he outlined in vague terms on Dec. 21, which would protect what he described as " middle class Americans" from the tax hikes, extend unemployment insurance and lay the " groundwork for further work" on deficit reduction and tax reform.

The major sticking point is Republican opposition to tax hikes on anyone, particularly in the absence of heavy cuts in spending for so-called entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, the government-run health programs for senior citizens and the poor.

Democrats in Congress want to keep lower tax rates for most Americans but raise them on those earning above $250,000 a year.

" The wealthy have got to kick in," said Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan Friday morning on CNN. " The tough part is in the House, where they have taken this very extreme position" of " protecting the wealthy at all costs."

" It's feeling very much to me like an optical meeting than a substantive meeting," said Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, noting that it was not a sign of urgency to set a meeting for mid-afternoon with a deadline just days away.

" Any time you announce a meeting publicly in Washington, it's usually for political theater purposes," South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham said on Fox News Thursday night.

" When the president calls congressional leaders to the White House, it's all political theater or they've got a deal. My bet is all political theater," said Graham, adding that he did not believe an agreement could be reached before the deadline.

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krisluke
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28-Dec-2012 22:29

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Wall St set to open down before latest try at 'cliff' deal

Times Square, New York

* Obama to meet with congressional Democrats, Republicans at White House

* Chicago PMI, pending home sales data on tap

* Futures down: Dow 77 pts, S& P 7.3 pts, Nasdaq 11.25 pts (Adds Aeterna Zentaris, updates prices)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were poised for a lower open on Friday as President Barack Obama and top lawmakers planned to make a last-ditch attempt at budget talks to prevent the United States from going over the " fiscal cliff."

Obama and lawmakers will meet at the White House Friday afternoon for talks before a New Year's deadline to keep large tax hikes and spending cuts from taking effect and threatening the economy with recession.

Investors showed their skepticism about a deal coming in time as the benchmark S& P 500 index was on track for a fifth straight decline.

With time running short to reach a complete agreement, members of Congress may attempt to pass a retroactive fix on tax rises and spending cuts soon after the automatic policies come into effect on Jan. 1.

" Obviously all eyes will be on Washington and the headlines coming out of Washington will dictate today's market movement," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.

" You do have some economic data coming in, but the market is probably not going to pay much attention to that. The big thing is whether Washington will reach a deal by Monday."

U.S. stocks fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday but managed to to recover most of their earlier losses after the House of Representatives, in the barest sign of progress, said it would return to Washington on Sunday night to work on avoiding the cliff.

Highlighting market sensitivity to cliff headlines, on Thursday stocks fell more than 1 percent earlier in the session after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid warned a deal was unlikely before the deadline.

With many market partcipants away for the holiday-shortened week, volume is expected to remain light, which could exacerbate market swings.

S& P 500 futures fell 7.3 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures lost 77 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 11.25 points.

Economic data expected on Friday includes Chicago PMI for December at 9:45 a.m. (1445 GMT) while the National Association of Realtors issues Pending Home Sales for November at 10 a.m. (1500 GMT). Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a reading of 51 for the main PMI index and a 1 percent rise in pending home sales.

MagicJack Vocaltec Ltd forecast over $39 million in GAAP revenue and over 70 cents per share in operating income for the fourth quarter and appointed Gerald Vento president and CEO, effective January 1. Shares jumped 10.6 percent to $18 in light premarket trading.

Aeterna Zentaris Inc U.S.-listed shares gained 4.6 percent to $2.27 before the opening bell after the company said it had reached an agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on a special protocol assessment by the FDA for phase 3 registration trial in endometrial cancer with AEZS-108 treatment. (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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krisluke
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28-Dec-2012 22:24

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Event - Royal Rumble 2013
Date - January 27, 2013
City - Phoenix, Arizona
Venue - US Airways Center

Are you ready for the royal rumble 2013 .... ...

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Bopanha
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28-Dec-2012 15:28

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It is a pity the world did not end at the same time with the Mayan Calendar. Many have hoped for the end to come, but many were disappointed. Their aspirations sprang from their holistic views of the people of the world. They are dissatisfied that the nature of human beings has begun rotting to unbearable levels. While science and technology have advanced far beyond the wildest dreams of our predecessors the evils of men have progressed much more than they could imagine. A cursory look at world events tells us that peaceful times are replaced by wars that kill thousands if not hundreds thousands. The justification for war is normally political differences. Sometimes mere petty differences in ways of thinking, culture and religion. Then there are the rich who continues to get richer but pay little attention to the poor and what more exploits them to the fullest to retain their fortunes. The rich lives in total luxury with their wealth and many of the poor in dire living conditions worse than garbage dumps in their impoverished homes or even make-shifts shelters. Then technologies created the internet that comes with it full loads of junks and untruths that target the innocent users. Just look at your scam folder and see how these people try to deceive you with promises of money making methods just to make you pay them to get themselves rich. Then you see sexual scandals and assaults day after day in local news and around the world. Then science made medicines so expensive that the sick cannot even afford it or to avail of its wonderful discoveries and advancement to cure themselves. The more serious ailment that requires much money than one can afford to treat could leave one to die just like that. With all these bad things that human beings brought upon this earth, it is no surprise that so many people are yearning for the apocalypse to happen so that the miseries of the world could end with it. But since the end did not come, we must still move on and know our faults. We must live and try to champion a better world for everyone and the future

generations to come.

krisluke ( Date: 29-Nov-2012 16:18) Posted:

Two bombs kill 16 people in Iraq Shi'ite city

Woman inspects a destroyed building near the site of a bomb attack in Kirkuk

HILLA, Iraq, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Two bombs exploded near a restaurant in the majority Shi'ite Muslim city of Hilla in southern Iraq on Thursday, killing 16 people, police and hospital sources said.

Scores were wounded in the blasts, which struck during the holy month of Ashura, of special significance to Shi'ites who are often targeted by al Qaeda's Iraqi affiliate and other Sunni Muslim insurgents. (Reporting by Ali al-Rubaie Writing by Isabel Coles Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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krisluke
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28-Dec-2012 13:56

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http://wincrt.blogspot.sg < < CLICK> >

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krisluke
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20-Dec-2012 07:16

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Oil up 2nd day on US budget hopes rest mostly down

* Oil posts biggest one-day gain in a month
* Corn falls to lowest levels in more than 5 months
* Soy extends Tuesday selloff on worries over China demand
* Cocoa hits 5-month low copper slips too

By Barani Krishnan
Dec 19 (Reuters) - Oil scored its biggest daily gain in a
month on Wednesday on hopes that a U.S. fiscal deal was still
possible to prevent a new recession in the No. 1 energy
consumer, while most other commodities, especially agricultural
types, closed down.
Corn fell to its lowest levels in more than five months
after a bearish acreage outlook was released by an influential
private forecaster.
Soybeans extended Tuesday's selloff on worries that the firm
export demand for U.S. soy over the past few months may be
softening.
Cocoa dropped to a five-month low on speculative
selling copper slipped after fewer startups in
U.S. housing projects, and gold ended flat after
a 3-1/2-month low in the previous session.
The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, which
tracks 19 futures markets, settled a touch higher. Despite the
broad decline, the index got a boost from the higher close in
U.S. crude oil, its main component.
U.S. crude oil settled up 1.8 percent at $89.51 a
barrel. Brent crude in London finished at $110.366, up
1.4 percent, the biggest daily gain for the benchmark since Nov.
19.
" There was a risk-on tone when we started the day
globally," said Addison Armstrong, an oil analyst at Tradition
Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.
" All markets were looking to go higher, and I think crude
has fed off that," Armstrong said.
Crude rallied on expectations that President Barack Obama
and Republicans in Congress will agree on a U.S. budget by Dec.
31. While Obama threatened to veto a Republican tax plan, both
sides appeared confident a deal remained within reach.

CORN, SOY TUMBLE
Corn futures in Chicago fell 2.4 percent. The benchmark
contract hit its lowest in more than five months after
influential private forecaster Informa Economics raised its 2013
U.S. corn acreage forecast to 99.026 million acres. That
forecast, for the most corn acreage since 1936, came despite
sluggish demand for corn from importers and ethanol producers.

" The Informa numbers that came out today weighed on our
markets," said Brian Hoops, president at Midwest Market
Solutions.
Benchmark U.S. corn for March delivery settled down
17 cents at $7.03 a bushel.
Soybeans dropped around 2 percent for a second straight
session, reeling from Tuesday's news that top soy consumer China
canceled a contract to purchase 300,000 tonnes of U.S. supplies.
Aside from that cargo, the U.S. Agriculture Department said
on said another 120,000 tonnes of locally-grown soybeans sold to
unknown destinations -- which traders believe are buyers from
China -- were also scrapped.
" Soybeans are still suffering from the impact of signs that
demand is fading as illustrated by China's canceled purchases,"
said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Chicago-traded soybeans for January delivery closed
down 29 cents at $14.37 a bushel.

Prices at 5:31 p.m. EST (2231 GMT)
LAST/ NET PCT YTD
CLOSE CHG CHG CHG
US crude 89.42 1.58 1.8% -9.5%
Brent crude 110.21 1.37 1.3% 2.6%
Natural gas 3.320 -0.098 -2.9% 11.1%

US gold 1667.70 -3.00 -0.2% 6.4%
Gold 1665.85 -0.71 0.0% 6.5%
US Copper 359.50 -4.15 -1.1% 4.6%
LME Copper 7926.00 -98.00 -1.2% 4.3%
Dollar 79.396 0.037 0.1% -1.0%

US corn 703.00 -17.00 -2.4% 8.7%
US soybeans 1437.00 -29.00 -2.0% 19.9%
US wheat 805.75 -5.50 -0.7% 23.4%

US Coffee 144.90 0.90 0.6% -36.5%
US Cocoa 2358.00 -39.00 -1.6% 11.8%
US Sugar 19.23 -0.16 -0.8% -17.2%

US silver 31.116 -0.553 -1.7% 11.5%
US platinum 1592.90 -0.80 -0.1% 13.4%
US palladium 698.35 7.40 1.1% 6.4%

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krisluke
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20-Dec-2012 07:14

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Wall St falls as 'cliff' talks sour, but hopes remain

NYSE

* S& P 500 drops after best two-day run in a month

* GM surges, automaker will buy back shares from U.S. gov't

* Oracle gains as software sales boost profit

* Dow down 0.7 pct, S& P 500 off 0.8 pct, Nasdaq off 0.3 pct

By Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks sold off late in the day to close at session lows on Wednesday as talks to avert a year-end fiscal crisis turned sour, even as investors still expect a deal.

The S& P 500 slipped after a two-day rally that took the benchmark index to its highest close in two months. Defensive-oriented shares led the decliners, including health care and consumer staples.

General Motors bucked the overall weakness to surge 6.6 percent to $27.18 after the automaker said it will buy back 200 million of its shares from the U.S. Treasury, which plans to sell the rest of its GM stake over the next 15 months.

President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are struggling to come up with a deal to avoid early 2013 tax hikes and spending cuts that many economists say could send the U.S. economy into recession.

House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, said in a one-minute press conference that his chamber will pass a proposal that Obama had already threatened to veto as it spares many wealthy Americans from tax hikes needed to balance the budget. Obama has already agreed to reductions in benefits for senior citizens.

" My guess is they're close to a deal, and right before, it looks like the deal is about to blow up either on manufactured or legitimate reasons," said Uri Landesman, president of hedge fund Platinum Partners in New York.

He said if the market thought a deal was in real danger, the S& P 500 would slide below 1,400. It stands now near 1,435, not far from a two-month high.

The CBOE Volatility Index surged 11.5 percent to 17.36, but has remained relatively stable. Its 14- 50- and 200-day averages are all within 1.1 points.

Landesman said the VIX's stability indicates " the bulls have control of this market still."

Banks and energy shares - groups that outperform during periods of economic expansion - have led recent gains, indicating a shift to focusing on a growing economy as Wall Street looks past the budget talks.

Defensive sectors led Wednesday's downturn, with the S& P health care sector index down 1.1 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 98.99 points, or 0.74 percent, to 13,251.97. The S& P 500 lost 10.98 points, or 0.76 percent, to 1,435.81. The Nasdaq Composite fell 10.17 points, or 0.33 percent, to 3,044.36.

Herbalife Ltd shares tumbled 12.1 percent to $37.34 after William Ackman, one of the world's biggest hedge fund managers, said he is shorting the stock of the weight management products company.

Oracle shares helped cap the Nasdaq's loss after the company reported earnings that beat expectations on strong software sales growth. Oracle jumped 3.7 percent to $34.09.

Knight Capital Group Inc climbed 5.4 percent to $3.51 after it agreed to be bought by Getco Holdings in a deal valued at $1.4 billion. The stock, which nearly collapsed after a trading error in August, remains down about 70 percent so far this year.

Shares of Chinese display advertising provider Focus Media Holding Ltd jumped 6.7 percent to $25.52 after it agreed to be bought by a consortium of private equity funds led by the Carlyle Group for about $3.6 billion.

Data showed homebuilding permits touched their highest level in nearly 4-1/2 years in November. The PHLX housing index fell 0.8 percent, but has gained 66.4 percent this year as the housing market has turned the corner.

About 6.9 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, slightly above the daily average so far this year of about 6.45 billion shares.

Advancing and declining issues were almost even on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

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krisluke
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20-Dec-2012 07:12

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US 'fiscal cliff' talks turn sour, Obama threatens veto

U.S. President Obama arrives in Detroit, Michigan

* Obama says Republicans have a personal grudge

* President would veto Republican's " Plan B"

* Senate Republican says deal still possible this week

By Matt Spetalnick and Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Talks to avoid a U.S. fiscal crisis appeared to stall on Wednesday as President Barack Obama accused Republicans of digging in their heels due to a personal grudge against him, while a top Republican called the president " irrational."

As the clock ticks toward a year-end deadline, Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, are trying to reach a deal to avert harsh tax hikes and spending cuts that could trigger a recession.

Obama said he was puzzled over what was holding up the talks and told Republicans to stop worrying about scoring " a point against the president" or forcing him into concessions " just for the heck of it."

" It is very hard for them to say yes to me," he told a news conference in the White House. " At some point, you know, they've got to take me out of it."

The rise in tensions threatens to unravel significant progress made over the last week in the so-called fiscal cliff talks.

Boehner and Obama have each offered substantial concessions that have made a deal look within reach. Obama has agreed to cuts in benefits for seniors, while Boehner has conceded to Obama's demand that taxes rise for the richest Americans.

However, the climate of goodwill has evaporated since Republicans announced plans on Tuesday to put an alternative tax plan to a vote in the House this week that would largely disregard th e progress made so far in negotiations.

Obama threatened to veto the Republican measure, known as " Plan B," if Congress approved it.

Boehner's office slammed Obama for opposing their plan, which would raise taxes on households making more than $1 million a year and is a concession from longstanding Republican opposition to increasing any tax rates.

" The White House's opposition to a backup plan ... is growing more bizarre and irrational by the day," Boehner said through his spokesman, Brendan Buck.

Boehner expressed confidence the House would pass the legislation, known as " Plan B," on Thursday. He urged Obama to " get serious" about a balanced deficit reduction plan.

Global investors are on edge over the talks, and U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday following Boehner's comments.

An acrimonious presidential campaign that culminated in Obama's re-election on Nov. 6 has added to the bad blood in Washington between Obama and congressional Republicans.

The two sides also clashed bitterly last year over the government's limit on borrowing - known as the debt ceiling - an episode that nearly led the nation to default on its debt.

On Wednesday, Obama said the fiscal cliff must not get bogged down with negotiations over the debt ceiling, an issue that must be dealt with again early next year.

LITMUS TEST

Voting on Plan B will be a litmus test for Republicans on Boehner's concession to raise tax rates. In a sign conservatives are coming around to Boehner's position, anti-tax activist Grover Norquist gave his blessing to the bill.

Obama and Boehner appear to have bridged their biggest ideological difference but remain hung up on the mix of tax hikes and spending cuts meant to narrow t h e budget gap.

" What separates us is probably a few hundred billion dollars," Obama said.

The White House wants taxes to rise on incomes above $400,000 a year, a concession from Obama's opening proposal for a $250,000 income threshold.

If a deal is not reached soon, some $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts are set to begin next month.

Senior administration officials described negotiations as at a standstill and Obama warned he would ask everyone involved in the talks, " what it is that's holding it up?"

Still, the top Republican in the Senate said resolution could come by the end of the week.

" There's still enough time for us to finish all of our work before this weekend, if we're all willing to stay late and work hard," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.

Any deal by Obama and the Republican leadership would need the support of their parties' rank and file.

Many Democrats dislike the president's offer to reduce benefits to seniors, although some political allies of Obama have given signs they feel they could swallow this concession.

" I don't like these particular changes," said Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen, a member of the House leadership from Maryland. But he added: " What people are seeing is the president willing to compromise in order to get things done."

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Singapore Shares Market Daily Update - 30 November 2012

Headlines: Singapore Market, Nam Cheong, Ezion, Kreuz, SG Market Strategy, Macau Gaming, CapitaLand, Genting SP, Singtel, SG Algriculture, USD/SGD, Olam, KTL Global

#Singapore market: the bullish performance in the Europe and US markets yday may drive a firm open to the Spore market. Markets are choosing to hear the positive spin regarding the fiscal cliff for now, but note that sentiment could change on a dime, depending on the next comments from the politicians.
In the region, KOSPI is down 0.3% while Nikkei is up 0.1% at 8.17am.

Trading could be a little more volatile today, particularly towards market closing, due to month-end window dressing, as well as the MSCI index changes taking place across SE Asia. Recall, CCT has been added from the MSCI Spore Index, while Cosco, NOL will be removed.

Technically, the STI has cleared the 3,027 resistance-turned-support. Yday’s gap up and long white candle is a further positive signal. See next resistance at 3,087. The RSI and Stochastics continue to rise steadily along with volume traded, which bodes well for near term momentum

Corporate newsflow continues to be thin.
CapitaLand may be in focus after winning the top bid for a Bishan residential site. Technicals for the counter continue to be favorable.
Olam may see further support, after non-executive and independent directors Robert Michael Tomlin and Michael Lim announced open mkt share purchases

#Nam Cheong: CS has an unrated report. House met We met with mgt post its 3Q12 results and note that Nam Cheong is the largest Msian-based OSV shipbuilder, delivering vessels from its own yard in Miri, Sarawak and three partner yards in Fujian, China.

Nam Cheong has been operating a Build to Stock (BTS) model since 2006, where market research and feedback from key customers and industry players are used to forecast OSV demand, with construction of OSVs undertaken in advance of orders to minimise order-delivery lead times.

Grp is expecting 18/19 vessel deliveries in 2012/2013 respectively under its shipbuilding programme. YTD orders secured for these vessels are at 16/9 vessels, respectively. Mgt reiterated that all previously built ships have been sold upon completion, since the inception of the BTS model. Nam Cheong is currently trading at 7.1x 2013E P/E, vs. the sector average of 8.1x, and a 2012 P/B of 1.8x against an expected ROE of 25.5%.

We like to highlight that recent stocks which CS did an unrated report (e.g Sheng Siong & Cordlife) did experience some positive price momentum and do not rule out the same for Nam Cheong. Counter currently has a market cap of $449.6m, while some foreign houses have mandates of coverage on counters only with a market cap of > $500m

#Ezion: UOB Kay Hian maintains Buy with $2.00 TP. House note that Liftboats and service rigs are gaining acceptance among NOCs in Asia Pacific. Ezion’s recent breakthroughs include securing more charters from Pertamina and maiden charters from Petronas. Potential demand for liftboats and service rigs in Asia Pacific is huge as the current fleet is still relatively small, compared to Asia Pacific’s fixed platform fleet that they can service.

Add that grp’s earnings will ramp up as more liftboats and service rigs come on-stream. New demand is booming, now that NOCs in this region are convinced over the superior efficiency of liftboats and service rigs over traditional OSVs

#Kreuz: UOB Kay Hian maintains Buy with $0.53 TP. House note that Kreuz is a key beneficiary of strong subsea capex spending in Asia. Kreuz’s current tenderbook remains robust at about US$500m, and expect the group to clinch about US$200m worth of new contracts in 2013, up 29% from the US$155m clinched to date in 2012.

Add that Kreuz’s orderbook currently stands at US$220m, lower than US$248m qoq, but higher than US$185.0m yoy. Ytd, Kreuz has announced US$155m worth of new contracts. Contract wins typically are lumpy.

Furthermore, overall outlook for the offshore subsea market is positive. According to Infield, Asian subsea capex is expected to be more than US$7b between 2011 and 2015, compared with US$2.25b over the previous five years. In addition, total annual expenditure on Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV) used in subsea operations is expected to grow from US$891m in 2010 to US$1,692m in 2015

#SG Market Strategy: CS has SG strategy report post 3Q12 results. House note that almost half of the co’s under CS coverage in SG delivered weaker-than-expected 3Q results, though the number of positive surprises was marginally higher than seen in 2Q.

The 60 bp expansion in headline margins was largely due to the QoQ decline in revenues (but not PAT) at IHH, one offs at GE and surprises at small cap co’s. Wage costs, as a percentage of rev, rose 50 bp QoQ (30 bpex IHH)—a trend that has now been seen throughout 2012. Post 3Q results, CS has upgraded 2012E numbers by 0.3% and downgraded 2013E numbers by 3.2%.

House tip Banking NIMs to continue their decline and fall another 5 bp QoQ in 3Q. Do not see this trend reversing in the near term, and remain UNDERWEIGHT on banks. House has upgraded SingTel to an OUTPERFORM on an expected turnaround at Bharti. Amongst the property names, continue to prefer CAPL and CMT and keep buy rating on Keppel.

#Macau Gaming: CLSA note that Macau Gaming stocks are up 47% in YTD12, representing 29% outperformance vs. Hang Seng index. On reduced share price upside, cut Sands China and Galaxy from BUY to OPF. House remain positive on mass gaming growth but cautiously trim VIP growth estimate from 9% to 5% despite an improving macro outlook.

Trim earnings by only 2-4%. A valuation re-rating could trigger further outperformance and under three bull case scenarios we see average upside of 27-74% (vs. base case of 13%)

#Genting SP: CIMB downgrade grp to UnderPerform from Neutral with $1.20 TP. House believe the co faces not just earnings risk but increased risk premium from overregulation and other issues that will restrict its capacity to grow. Make no changes to EPS forecasts and RNAV-based target price. M& A seems to be the only rerating catalyst at this stage.

Believe the weak performance seen over the last two qtrs represents the start of a protracted earnings downcycle. Think there is more downside risk as Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) grapples with the challenges of restricting its focus on the international mass mkt as the only avenue of growth.

#CapitaLand: is the top bidder for the Bishan residential site with bid of $505.1m ($853 psf gfa), a narrow 3% above the 2nd highest bid.
The parcel is next to CAPL’s Sky Habitat project, and a short walk to Bishan MRT and Junction 8. With a max gfa of 592.2k sf, it can be developed into a 645 unit condo.

Deutsche estimates breakeven at $1,280 psf, which implies margins of 15% based on ASP of $1,500 psf, broadly on par with Sky Habitat. This acq is of strategic importance to CAPL, given its proximity to Sky Habitat (where sales have been relatively sluggish with 28% sold to date at benchmark prices), allowing it to protect its turf.

The house estimates a minor 1ct/sh accretion to NAV. This latest site boosts CAPL ‘s Spore residential inventory by 27% to ~2.8m of attributable gfa and increases its mid-end exposure. Deutsche continues to like CAPL for its deep devt pipeline, improving earnings profile as projects mature and see mgt succession as positive for execution. Says valns appear undemanding at 1x P/B and 23% discount to RNAV. Keeps at Buy with TP $3.87.

Technical outlook for CAPL is positive, with the stock having made a new multi year high yday. We note the Fibo retracement levels (using the Jan ’10 peak to Dec ’12 trough) have worked well thus far. A successful breach above the 0.62x resistance at $3.52 could see the stock as a potential bullish breakout candidate, and move next to test the 0.78x Fibo level at $3.88

#Singtel: Nomura: Upgrades to Buy, and raises TP to $3.80 from $3.27, noting that most of its businesses performing at the same time:
1) Optus downgrade is behind and not likely to see further negative surprises in the near term.
2) Singapore is trending well and Most of its Associates should see underlying earnings improve after 2yrs of declines. and
3) Cashflows remain strong and diversified, with around $3bn in annual FCF(7-8% adjusted FCF yield).

Its valuation looks compelling at 13x FY14F P/E, a 15% discount to regional peers. Catalysts wld be:
1) Operating trends and earnings growth, expect 6-8% pa EPS growth in FY14-15
2) NetLink Trust’s partial divestment by mid-2014 could realise ~SGD1bn, which could boost dividends
3) No special dividends are likely until May-2014, but its ordinary yield of 5% is 350bps higher than Singaporean bonds
4) FX volatility will impact earnings, while Associates’ dividends/cashflows are generally hedged

#SG Agriculture Nomura has sector report. House note that weather outlook changing, veg oil supply tightness continues, and house remain bullish on CPO.

Bullish on agri-commodity prices, especially on palm and soy oil, due to supply tightness in the entire vegetable oil and oilseeds complex. bullish on CPO prices and expect them to average MYR3,600/mt in 2013F. CPO price estimate for 2013F is 20% ahead of consensus. maintain Buy on Olam as the current Muddy Waters controversy provides a good long-term entry point (though in the very near-term, it may remain range bound). Also like Noble, as valuations are close to trough (book value).

For upstream, continue to like stocks with strong correlation to CPO prices and potentially low earnings risks. top picks in upstream are FR, GGR, BWPT and BAL

#USD/SGD: TSet to stay mired in range trade close to the 1.2200 handle for the next couple of sessions, thanks to Singapore's policy of guiding its currency on a gradual appreciation path, and the pair's proximity to limits set by the central bank, says Standard Chartered. Don't see much downside for the USD/SGD as it's close to the strong end of the (SGD NEER policy) band, while the top side is protected thanks to Singapore's strong FX policy, tipping the pair to trade between 1.2200 to 1.2300

#Olam: non-executive and independent directors Robert Michael Tomlin and Michael Lim announced open mkt share purchases, each buying 200k shares at $1.55/sh and $1.545/sh respectively. Both directors had nil shares in Olam prior to this purchase.
The insiders’ share purchases, coupled with Olam’s quick and firm rebuttal to short seller Muddy Waters’ negative report, may further bolster investor confidence in the company.
The stock extends its recovery, adding 0.1% to $1.575

#KTL Global: has secured ~US$9.3m worth of orders from two subsidiaries of Ezra.
i) to supply ~US$3.2m worth of mooring chains and accessories to EMAS Offshore Construction and Pdtn
ii) to supply ~US$6.1m worth of side thruster and shaft, and reduction gearbox propellers to Triyards Marine.
The orders are expected to contribute to the group’s FYJun13 financials.

KTL is a supplier of rigging eqpt and related services to the O& G, marine and construction industries. It is also a supplier of premium steel wire ropes and fittings for lifting and mooring.
The counter trades at 0.6x P/B, ~29x FYJun12 P/E.
Stock is illiquid though with no trades done for this session and wide bid/ask spread

#SG Strategy: CIMB has 2013 reports in a massive 220 pager report. House downgrade Singapore to Neutral from Overweight as its 2012 outperformance, lack of earnings growth andrestructuring-induced cost pressures act as headwinds for further performance. 3,316 (bottom-up) end-CY13 FSSTI target is unchanged. It implies 13.2x P/E. Within the Singapore market, house main recommendation is to drift out of yields and hunt for safe growth at a reasonable price. Although global growth is slow, fears of a China hard landing is receding. Any breakup in Europe seems less imminent and the US should look beyond its fiscal cliff after 1Q13. Ahead, investors could price out doomsday scenarios and stretch for growth. SG could lag as it is not associated with growth.

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30-Nov-2012 16:38

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European shares erase early losses

European flag flying in front of the European Commission building in Brussels

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - European stocks reversed early losses on Friday, flirting with the previous session's multi-month highs as investors squared the books on the final trading day of the month.

The FTSEurofirst 300 was flat at 1,121.79 points by 0829 GMT, recovering from a session low of 1,119.66.

French luxury group LVMH was the top boost on the index, up 2.2 percent after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to 'buy' from 'neutral', forecasting an improvement in demand from China.

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29-Nov-2012 16:21

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Swiss growth stronger than expected in third quarter

* Q3 growth 0.6 pct q/q, vs Reuters poll for 0.2 pct

* Government spending supports, investment weighs

* Exporters hurt by strong safe-haven franc

* SNB committed to cap on franc to protect economy (Adds detail, analyst comment, background)

By Emma Thomasson

ZURICH, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The Swiss economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter after government spending rose even as sluggish exports helped the central bank's policy of capping the safe-haven franc.

Gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, compared with a forecast for 0.2 percent and after a 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter.

" The weak leading indicators would not necessarily lead one to have expected an increase," Bernd Hartmann, head of investment research at VP Bank, said on Thursday. " For once, however, it is not private households who are responsible for the increase but significantly higher government spending."

Government spending rose 1.7 percent on the quarter while private expenditure - long the saviour of Swiss growth - was up 0.1 percent. Exports rose 0.5 percent, with investment in fixed assets and software down 1.2 percent.

The Swiss National Bank must keep the lid it has imposed on the franc at 1.20 per euro for the foreseeable future or risk threatening price stability and economic growth, Chairman Thomas Jordan said on Wednesday.

The SNB has predicted the economy will grow 1 percent this year. It will issue its forecast for 2013 at a quarterly monetary policy meeting on Dec. 13.

Year-on-year, gross domestic product rose 1.4 percent, compared with a forecast for 0.9 percent, up from a revised 0.3 percent growth in the previous three months, the State Secretariat for Economics said.

" The details are not so great. Investment is negative. Household consumption has gone down compared with the last quarter and net exports are negative," Sarasin economist Alessandro Bee said.

" For the SNB, these figures should not make a difference. Even if exports are OK, job losses among export companies are less heartening. They have no choice but to stick with the cap of 1.20."

Swiss exports fell 16 percent in October, hit by weak sales in the machinery and electronics industry, while manufacturing shrank for a seventh month in a row as demand continued to suffer from the euro zone crisis. More than half Switzerland's exports are sold in the euro zone.

" It is doubtful that Switzerland is already on a sustainable recovery path. The economic problems in the eurozone are having an increasingly strong impact on the Swiss economy," Hartmann of VP Bank said.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Tuesday it expected the Swiss economy to recover in the second half of 2013 and the central bank should keep rates on hold for the time being. (Additional reporting by Martin de Sa'Pinto Editing by Dan Lalor)

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29-Nov-2012 16:19

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North Korea names new armed forces minister - South Korean officials

By Jack Kim and Ju-min Park

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has named a hardline general who is believed to have masterminded an attack on South Korea to the post of Armed Forces Minister as part of a broad reshuffle of the military, South Korean officials said on Thursday.

Kim Kyok-sik's appointment as the Minister of People's Armed Forces marks a return to the top ranks of one of the world's biggest armies by a man who had previously been pushed aside by a rival who has since been purged.

" The reshuffle is part of loyalty test by First Chairman Kim Jong-un," a South Korean government official said.

A second South Korean official confirmed that Seoul believed a new minister had been appointed. There was no official announcement by Pyongyang and it was impossible to verify the reports.

Kim commanded the North's 4th Army Corps that was responsible for the bombing of a South Korean island in 2010. The attack killed four people in what was the first on a civilian area in the South since the 1950-53 Korean War.

North and South Korea remain technically at war as an armistice rather than a peace treaty ended the conflict.

Kim's military career also included working as a liaison officer with Syria, one of a few allies of the diplomatically isolated North, according to North Korea Leadership Watch, a website that specialises in tracking personnel there.

Syria and North Korea have close military ties and a ship carrying North Korean cargo that could be used to make missiles headed for Syria was stopped in May.

U.N. sanctions ban arms trade with North Korea and were imposed after the isolated state's 2009 missile and nuclear tests.

The second South Korean official said Kim Kyok-sik's appointment is the latest move in a military reshuffle that began earlier in the year with the purge of one of the highest ranking army men, Ri Yong-ho.

" It could be the most significant move after Ri's dismissal to strengthen his (Kim Jong-un's) grip on the military," the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The post of the Minister of Armed Forces is considered subordinate to the Army Chief of General Staff and its head of the Political Department.

But the appointment is indication of a top army general being rewarded for loyalty to the new leader as he tries to cement his power after taking over from his father Kim Jong-il who died in December last year, the officials said.

(Editing by Jonathan Thatcher)

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29-Nov-2012 16:18

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Two bombs kill 16 people in Iraq Shi'ite city

Woman inspects a destroyed building near the site of a bomb attack in Kirkuk

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Gold steady after sell-off, US fiscal talks eyed

Gold bars are displayed at South Africa's Rand Refinery in Germiston

* SPDR Gold Trust holdings hit record high for second day
* CME says Wednesday's crash not a result of " fat finger"
* Spot gold could retrace to $1,692/oz - technicals
* Coming up: U.S. GDP, Q3 1330 GMT

(Adds details, graphics updates prices)
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Gold steadied on Thursday to
trade in a narrow range, after suffering its biggest daily
decline in nearly four weeks in the previous session, as
investors nervously eyed a looming deadline for averting a U.S.
fiscal crisis.
While gold has been unable to break a heavy resistance at
$1,750 an ounce over the past week and briefly plunged to as low
as $1,705.64 an ounce on Wednesday, general bullish sentiment
for bullion remained intact as indicated by a rise in
gold-backed exchange traded funds to a record high.

And the threat of the U.S. economy slipping off the " fiscal
cliff" may support the precious metal further, although the
strength in the dollar - a more popular safe haven - may take
some of gold's lustre off.
U.S. lawmakers are engaged in talks to avert $600 billion
worth of tax hikes and spending cuts, or the so-called " fiscal
cliff" due to start in the new year that threatens to push the
economy back to recession.
House Speaker John Boehner voiced optimism that Republicans
could broker a pact with the White House to avoid the fiscal
cliff on Wednesday.
" Generally people are still pretty bullish on gold and last
night was just a one-off correction, nothing extraordinary,"
said a Singapore-based trader, adding that $1,650-$1,700 would
be a good buying level.
But he said Asian physical demand was disappointing.
" We aren't seeing much physical demand, which is quite bad
for this time of the year," he said.
Spot gold was nearly flat at $1,719.60 an ounce by
0722 GMT, after tumbling 1.3 percent in the previous session due
to a heavy bout of stop-loss selling.
U.S. gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,719.70, after
dropping 1.5 percent on Wednesday.
Technical analysis suggested spot gold could retrace to
$1,692 an ounce during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang
Tao.

CME SAYS NO " FAT FINGER"
The CME Group, which operates the U.S. COMEX gold futures
market, said Wednesday's plunge in gold was not the consequence
of a " fat finger" , or a human error.
" It was not a 'fat finger'. The market sold off. No stop
logic triggered either, which meant the price decline wasn't
even fast enough to trigger a pause on Globex," said a spokesman
for CME, referring to the group's electronic trading platform.
Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's biggest
gold-backed exchange-traded fund, hit a record high for a second
consecutive day, underlying buoyant investment interest.
Its holdings stood at 1,347.018 tonnes on Nov. 28, up nearly
11 tonnes so far this month, on course for its fourth month of
straight gains, even though gold prices barely budged compared
to the end of last month.
Spot silver lost 0.4 percent to $33.59, and the
gold-silver ratio stood at 51.2, hovering above a two-month low.
Spot platinum was up 0.1 percent to $1,605.25, and
the spread between gold and platinum dropped to a more than
one-month low of $114.

Precious metals prices 0722 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume
Spot Gold 1719.60 0.29 +0.02 9.96
Spot Silver 33.59 -0.14 -0.42 21.31
Spot Platinum 1605.25 2.00 +0.12 15.24
Spot Palladium 666.75 -5.75 -0.86 2.18
COMEX GOLD DEC2 1719.70 3.20 +0.19 9.76 6731
COMEX SILVER DEC2 33.60 -0.08 -0.25 20.37 2200
Euro/Dollar 1.2948
Dollar/Yen 82.15
COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months

(Editing by Himani Sarkar)

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Britain's FTSE gains on U.S fiscal cliff optimism

Paternoster Square, home of the LSE, seen from St Paul's Cathedral

LONDON Nov.29 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index pushed higher on Thursday, led by risk-sensitive miners and banking stocks, reflecting a swing to optimism over negotiations for a deal on the U.S. fiscal budget.

Wall Street posted strong gains and Asian equities advanced overnight after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner voiced optimism that Republicans could broker a deal with the White House to avoid a year-end 'fiscal cliff' of austerity measures that could stall the world's largest economy.

President Barack Obama added to the positive mood, saying he hoped to get a deal done in the next four weeks.

At 0805 GMT, the FTSE 100 index was up 20.73 points, or 0.4 percent at 5,824.00, having gained 0.1 percent on Wednesday after a volatile session, as sentiment on the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations waxed and waned.

Rio Tinto was the top FTSE 100 gainer, up 2.4 percent. The global miner aims to axe $7 billion in costs over the next two years as it faces weaker commodity prices.

Despite cutting costs, the global miner had managed to beef up production at its lucrative Australian iron ore operations. (Reporting by Jon Hopkins Editing by Francesco Canepa)

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-BOJ policymaker warns Japan may miss price forecast

(Corrects timing in first paragraph to next month)

* BOJ Shirai warns of greater downside risks to economy

* Adds expected sales tax hike may hurt consumption

* Markets expect more BOJ easing as early as this month

* Capex, consumption are key risks to outlook - Shirai

* Adds BOJ independence must be respected

By Leika Kihara

KUMAMOTO, Japan, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan board member Sayuri Shirai warned of looming risks to the economic outlook that could keep price growth lower than the central bank's forecasts, keeping alive market expectations of further monetary loosening as early as next month.

Shirai, a former IMF economist, repeated the BOJ's view that consumer inflation will steadily approach the central bank's target of 1 percent in the year ending in March 2015.

But she said the risk balance for price growth was " tilted to the downside," warning that the widening pain from Europe's debt woes, slowing Chinese growth and the looming U.S. fiscal cliff may delay Japan's progress in overcoming deflation.

" While both upside and downside risks to the economy exist, I personally see the downside risks as greater," Shirai told business leaders in Kumamoto, southern Japan, on Thursday.

The risks have not heightened beyond what the BOJ projected in its twice-yearly outlook report issued last month, although vigilance was needed on whether they could materialise and further hurt the world's third-largest economy, she said.

" Capital expenditure and private consumption are among key risks I'd like to look out for," she told a news conference after the meeting, pointing to signs that some companies were starting to delay investment due to weakening sales overseas.

Aside from overseas risks, Japan's economic outlook is also clouded by an expected sales tax hike in 2014 that could dampen consumer spending, Shirai said.

Japan's economy shrank 0.9 percent in the quarter to September and analysts expect another contraction in the final three months of this year, a sign that weak exports and output were nudging the economy into recession.

The BOJ eased policy for two straight months in October to ease the pain from weakening global demand, and many market players expect it to expand stimulus again as early as its next policy-setting meeting on Dec. 19-20 in the face of heightening political pressure for bolder action to beat deflation.

Main opposition party leader Shinzo Abe, seen as the likely next premier after a general election on Dec. 16 that polls suggest his party will win, has called for bolder BOJ action such as " unlimited" easing and a possible revision to a law guaranteeing its independence to give the government more say in monetary policy.

Shirai said that while the central bank shared the view held by some politicians that Japan's economy is in a severe state, its independence must be respected.

She also dismissed the need to strengthen the BOJ's language pledging to keep ultra-easy policy in place until 1 percent inflation comes into sight, an idea proposed last month by board member Takehiko Sato but turned down by a 2-7 vote.

" What's important is that the BOJ will continue its powerful monetary easing as long as achieving 1 percent inflation in 2014 cannot be foreseen," she said. " We made that commitment and there's no change to it," Shirai said.

In its latest forecasts issued on Oct. 30, the central bank expects core consumer prices to fall 0.1 percent in the year ending in March 2013, but rise 0.4 percent in the next year and 0.8 percent in the year to March 2015.

The BOJ set a 1 percent inflation target in February and has eased monetary policy four times so far this year to beat deflation and revive an export-reliant economy hurt by a strong yen and weakening global demand.

But core consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in the year to September, marking the fifth straight month of declines. Data due out on Friday is expected to show they posted flat growth in October, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Shirai is regarded as among those in the nine-member board who are more pessimistic about the economy and more eager to loosen policy pre-emptively to forestall risks to the outlook. (Reporting by Leika Kihara Editing by Michael Watson & Kim Coghill)

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PBOC weekly open market operations at a glance

Nov 29 (Reuters) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net drain
of 40 billion yuan ($6.42 billion) from the banking system this week, according
to Reuters' calculations.
The PBOC has injected a net total of 1.343 trillion yuan so far this year.
The central bank also reduced banks' required reserve ratio twice, in February
and again in May, injecting an estimated 800 billion yuan into the banking
system.
Last year it injected a net 1.907 trillion yuan into the market through open
market operations, which was largely offset by mandated increases in banks'
required reserves.
For a table on the PBOC's open market operations in 2011, click:

For information on changes in required reserve ratios, click:
For information on changes in deposit interest rates, click:
For information on changes in loan interest rates, click:
Following is a summary of the PBOC's weekly open market operations this year
(in billions of yuan):
Week Bills Repos Reverse Bills Repos Reverse Net drain
starting matured matured repos issued issued repos (-) or
issued* matured* injection
26-Nov 15 214 269 -40
19-Nov 15 203 242 -24
12-Nov 52 277 404 -75
5-Nov 10 422 533 -101
29-Oct 10 568 199 379
22-Oct 19 316 405 -70
15-Oct 10 106 337 -221
8-Oct 10 324 170 164
24-Sep 2 470 107 365
17-Sep 1 5 235 140 101
10-Sep 10 15 132 165 -8
3-Sep 3 20 135 210 -52
27-Aug 1 30 165 250 -54
20-Aug 3 30 365 120 278
13-Aug 5 30 140 100 75
6-Aug 2 100 58 44
30-Jul 1 58 145 -86
23-Jul 1 145 100 46
16-Jul 5 40 100 205 -60
9-Jul 11 57 60 168 -40
2-Jul 2 35 188 225
25-Jun 3 70 125 198
18-Jun 0 80 25 55
11-Jun 1 80 45 36
4-Jun 2 50 50 2
28-May 3 20 80 -57
21-May 3 9 90 -78
14-May 7 43 114 -64
7-May 30 72 61 41
30-Apr 52 65 117
23-Apr 3 70 9 64
16-Apr 55 50 53 52
9-Apr 125 66 79 112
2-Apr 0 30 5 25
26-Mar 99 10 90 19
19-Mar 51 0 70 -19
12-Mar 13 16 86 -57
5-Mar 7 56 60 3
27-Feb 2 30 -28
20-Feb 2 2
13-Feb 7 16 -9
6-Feb 2 46 -44
30-Jan 1 352 -351
22-Jan 1 1
16-Jan 1 352 353
9-Jan 8 65 73
2-Jan 1 50 51

TOTAL 1,343
* Reverse repos inject funds on issuance and drain funds on maturity.
Note: Reuters calculations of maturing bills and repos count any debt
maturing on the weekend as maturing the following week, as that is when banks
receive the cash.
($1 = 6.2273 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Chen Yixin and Pete Sweeney)

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krisluke
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29-Nov-2012 15:13

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Brent rises towards $110 on Mideast tensions, US budget hopes

* Budget talks in U.S. show signs of moving forward

* President Obama optimistic of a deal before Christmas

* Coming Up: Q3 US GDP 1330 GMT (Updates prices)

By Luke Pachymuthu

SINGAPORE, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Brent crude climbed towards $110 a barrel on Thursday, as U.S. lawmakers appeared to be inching closer to a deal on the " fiscal cliff" and tensions in the Middle East worsened, although investors remained wary of the outlook for oil demand next year.

Asian shares rose on Thursday, tracking bourses in the United States and Europe overnight on improved sentiment about a deal on key U.S. budget talks, with President Barack Obama suggesting he was optimistic about concluding discussions before Christmas.

The United States is the world's biggest crude oil consumer.

" Right now it's all on the U.S., if they can get a deal on the fiscal cliff, they will be on their way to a sustained economic recovery," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.

" There is so much (emphasis) put on China and Asia leading a global recovery, but the sense now is that the U.S. needs to get on a path to recovery and then pull the rest of the world right along with it."

Brent crude was up 29 cents at $109.80 a barrel by 0648 GMT while U.S. crude gained 26 cents to $86.75 a barrel, following losses in the previous session.

Oil markets have been under pressure due to uncertainty over 2013 fuel demand as the global economy continues to sputter along.

" The market is balanced for now, but as we look out beyond February, and down into the start of the second quarter, it looks oversupplied," Nunan said.

" We'll continue to see rangebound trading, especially with geo-political risk expanding through the Middle East."

Protests on the streets of Egypt entered a seventh day on Tuesday, as President Mohamed Mursi tries to call for unity even as he attempts to push through constitutional changes to give himself sweeping powers.

The death of a Saudi diplomat and his Yemeni bodyguard in Yemen's capital Sanaa on Wednesday, and comments from Iran that it was determined to press on with uranium enrichment ahead of possible talks with world powers, added further support to oil.

" You can't help but ignore the elephant in the room, which has been there for some time -- Iran," Nunan said.

" Attention was diverted away from them briefly with the Gaza-Israel offensive, but you see the missiles being fired by Hamas were coming from Iran."

Israel and its Western allies accuse Iran of trying to develop a nuclear bomb, while Tehran insists its nuclear programme is purely for civilian use.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell 347,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 23, to 374.12 million barrels, after analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a build of about 300,000 barrels.

U.S. gasoline stockpiles rose a sharp 3.87 million barrels to 204.26 million barrels, compared with expectations for a smaller 900,0000 barrel build. (Editing by Richard Pullin and Miral Fahmy)

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