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Straits Asia
watermelon
Veteran
26-Nov-2010 14:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		wonder will it hit $3 by end of the year 2010??

enghou      ( Date: 23-Nov-2010 18:57) Posted:



Straits Asia - Upgrade To Outperform

Better Risk Reward

 We upgrade SAR to OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with potential

upside higher to peers if the Northern Lease is granted within the

next three months. We see SAR giving high risk, high return

exposure to the sector. In our best case, we see SAR rerated to

S$3.5 based on 18x P/E in FY11E.

● Our earnings forecast assumes that the permit is granted in the

next few months and production at SBK mine could improve from

1mnt to 2 mnt YoY in 2011. We cut our earnings forecast by 2%

for FY11, a small cut relative to peers, as our original forecast had

taken into account slow startup of the project.

● Catalysts to the share price are rising spot coal prices and the

issuance of borrow-use permit by the Forestry Ministry for the

Northern Lease.

● If there is no output from SBK mine in 2011, we see 32%

downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR’s P/E would be at

18.7x. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E assuming

a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011.

 Target price of S$3.1 assuming 70% of Northern Lease start

in FY11

At the current share price, SAR trades at a discount to P/E of its peers

of between 13x-15x. Assuming that the permit is delayed by one year

(which is unlikely), we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast,

and SAR would be valued at a P/E of 18.7x at the current share price.

However, if the permit is received, we see SAR to be potentially

rerated up to S$3.5 assuming that SAR then is rerated along with its

peers to our target P/E of 18x in 2011. Our target price of S$3.1 is set

based on 18x P/E, assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease

mine would start in 2011.

Source: Credit Suisse

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Calculation
Senior
24-Nov-2010 04:26     
 
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 Alert Admin

PTT International (through PTT Mining) currently holds an indirect stake of 27.36% in Straits Asia Resources (SAR).

It is now buying the indirect stake of 18.24% from Straits Resources Ltd, making itself (PTT International) the ultimate shareholder of 45.6% in Straits Asia Resources (SAR).

Does PTT International (or PTT Mining) 's recent purchase of the additional 18.24% stake trigger Singapore's takeover codes which required it to make a general offer to acquire all SAR shares which it does not already own?  Since it purchases the 18.24% stake at a price of $2.79 per share, does it mean its General Offer price has to be not less than $2.79?

Any expert here who is able to share his or her views?

I noticed daily volumes of SAR shares had been high.  Could it because of an anticipated increase in coal price or some people are expecting a General Offer from PTT International?
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epliew
Supreme
23-Nov-2010 19:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		if war outbreak.... what is the outcome ?

enghou      ( Date: 23-Nov-2010 18:57) Posted:



Straits Asia - Upgrade To Outperform

Better Risk Reward

 We upgrade SAR to OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with potential

upside higher to peers if the Northern Lease is granted within the

next three months. We see SAR giving high risk, high return

exposure to the sector. In our best case, we see SAR rerated to

S$3.5 based on 18x P/E in FY11E.

● Our earnings forecast assumes that the permit is granted in the

next few months and production at SBK mine could improve from

1mnt to 2 mnt YoY in 2011. We cut our earnings forecast by 2%

for FY11, a small cut relative to peers, as our original forecast had

taken into account slow startup of the project.

● Catalysts to the share price are rising spot coal prices and the

issuance of borrow-use permit by the Forestry Ministry for the

Northern Lease.

● If there is no output from SBK mine in 2011, we see 32%

downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR’s P/E would be at

18.7x. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E assuming

a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011.

 Target price of S$3.1 assuming 70% of Northern Lease start

in FY11

At the current share price, SAR trades at a discount to P/E of its peers

of between 13x-15x. Assuming that the permit is delayed by one year

(which is unlikely), we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast,

and SAR would be valued at a P/E of 18.7x at the current share price.

However, if the permit is received, we see SAR to be potentially

rerated up to S$3.5 assuming that SAR then is rerated along with its

peers to our target P/E of 18x in 2011. Our target price of S$3.1 is set

based on 18x P/E, assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease

mine would start in 2011.

Source: Credit Suisse

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enghou
Senior
23-Nov-2010 18:57     
 
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 Alert Admin

Straits Asia - Upgrade To Outperform

Better Risk Reward

 We upgrade SAR to OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with potential

upside higher to peers if the Northern Lease is granted within the

next three months. We see SAR giving high risk, high return

exposure to the sector. In our best case, we see SAR rerated to

S$3.5 based on 18x P/E in FY11E.

● Our earnings forecast assumes that the permit is granted in the

next few months and production at SBK mine could improve from

1mnt to 2 mnt YoY in 2011. We cut our earnings forecast by 2%

for FY11, a small cut relative to peers, as our original forecast had

taken into account slow startup of the project.

● Catalysts to the share price are rising spot coal prices and the

issuance of borrow-use permit by the Forestry Ministry for the

Northern Lease.

● If there is no output from SBK mine in 2011, we see 32%

downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR’s P/E would be at

18.7x. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E assuming

a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011.

 Target price of S$3.1 assuming 70% of Northern Lease start

in FY11

At the current share price, SAR trades at a discount to P/E of its peers

of between 13x-15x. Assuming that the permit is delayed by one year

(which is unlikely), we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast,

and SAR would be valued at a P/E of 18.7x at the current share price.

However, if the permit is received, we see SAR to be potentially

rerated up to S$3.5 assuming that SAR then is rerated along with its

peers to our target P/E of 18x in 2011. Our target price of S$3.1 is set

based on 18x P/E, assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease

mine would start in 2011.

Source: Credit Suisse

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bsiong
Supreme
19-Nov-2010 15:55     
 
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 Alert Admin

Straits Asia Resources (SAR SP; S$2.53)

 

 

Straits Asia Resources rallied as much as 4.5% on Friday following a surge in commodity prices and recent M&A activity in Indonesia 's coal sector.

 

 

By lunch, shares were up 11cts at S$2.53 with over 6m share changing hands.

 

 

Oil prices closed 2% higher on Thursday in the US , breaking a 4-day down streak on the back of Ireland’s bailout plan which gave confidence to global investors.

 

 

In addition, the recent merger of Indonesia coal firms Berau Coal, PT Bumi Resources along with Vallar Plc, generated greater investor interest in the region’s coal industry and respective companies.

 

 

Maintain Underperform with a TP of S$2.01.



 

 
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xorion
Member
12-Nov-2010 02:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		can i ask.. when is a good price to enter, stop loss and take profit
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watermelon
Veteran
11-Nov-2010 14:16     
 
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Hi , thanks for the update :-)



kyjnjn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2010 13:29) Posted:

Divestment of SARs by Aussie parent to PTT valuing SARs @ 2.79 and funds seem to know this news  in advance resulting in price increased in the past few days. You should be able to sell at a profit soon. All the best.

watermelon      ( Date: 27-Oct-2010 14:05) Posted:

me bought high at 2.69, will it go higher or at least break even for me ? :-(
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kyjnjn
Member
11-Nov-2010 13:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Divestment of SARs by Aussie parent to PTT valuing SARs @ 2.79 and funds seem to know this news  in advance resulting in price increased in the past few days. You should be able to sell at a profit soon. All the best.

watermelon      ( Date: 27-Oct-2010 14:05) Posted:

me bought high at 2.69, will it go higher or at least break even for me ? :-(
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WeiQiQi
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04-Nov-2010 12:55     
 
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 Alert Admin



 
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watermelon
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27-Oct-2010 14:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		me bought high at 2.69, will it go higher or at least break even for me ? :-(
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kyjnjn
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27-Oct-2010 13:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Why? What's the news?
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risktaker
Supreme
27-Oct-2010 13:56     
 
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 Alert Admin

BUY --- STRAIT ASIA --- BUY


BOSAYOR
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marubozu1688
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26-Oct-2010 13:57     
 
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Base on the chart pattern and historical PE, Straits Asia Resources still have much upside potential.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/straits-asia/straits-asia-resources-sar-climbing-on-up-trend-steadily/

 
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vonntan
Senior
26-Oct-2010 00:32     
 
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commodities went berserk today. I just wonder if there is room for more rally tommorw? StraitsAsia is looking good for now.

http://sgsharemarket.com/home/2010/10/straitsasia-testing-resistance/
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kyjnjn
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14-Oct-2010 17:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I wonder why when commodity prices are up. Poor quarterly results?
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elton81
Master
14-Oct-2010 17:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		this counter drop alot for the past few days.. is it trying to cover the gap at 2.23? is it a good time to enter now?
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victorf
Master
06-Oct-2010 14:37     
 
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amazing recovery from $2.17....when it drop from $2.36 to $2.17 when we move our call to "NEUTRAL" at $2.33 plus ....now at $2.41...still a good counter though our call is "NEURTAL" for this counter....good luck :)

victorf      ( Date: 15-Sep-2010 14:23) Posted:



Strait Asia moves according to script since at price near $1.94....it is one of our few "BUY ON DIP" counter for us even when Market is in "NEURTAL MODE" (now Market is in "BUY ON DIP MODE")....at current price of $2.33-$2.34, one will be laughing to the bank.....remember Market is always Right!!! good luck :)

victorf
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we repeat our call for Strait Asia that this is one of our "BUY ON DIP" counter even when Market is in NEUTRAL mode....good luck :)
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kyjnjn
Member
06-Oct-2010 11:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Why nobody talk about this share? Can anybody share, with this break, what is the target? Thank you.
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star-trader
Senior
04-Oct-2010 14:45     
 
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As predicted, Straits Asia went on an uptrend following up a good support above 2.18. Hope you have covered your shorts.

It has moved further away from 2.26 which is the price of the higher uptrend. But end of session data feeds today will be able to tell more clearer picture if can still go in or not. Anyway, I don't buy SA because of need to have a lot of capital (CFD) to buy the stocks as margin is around 25%.

Thanks,
Star-Trader



alexchia01      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 20:47) Posted:

Yes, Star-Trader. I totally agree with you.

This is the reason why I didn't recommend others to short Straits Asia today.

$2.18 is a key level to watch.



star-trader      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 20:27) Posted:



I am not sure about the potential of Straits Asia, but from the chart, if it can sustain above 2.18, ( notice on 13 Sept 2010, where distribution started or off-load of selling pressure till the peak point at 2.37 which can determine the price movement..

Layman term, if the buying support is shown above 2.18 in the next few days, you better cover the position. If it continue to fall below 2.18, it will be safe bet to hold on further to your short position but of course we will need to cross-check again the volumes and the candlesticks at that point of time.

Star-Trader

 
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kyjnjn
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29-Sep-2010 21:20     
 
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Thank you very much, appreciate your explanation.

I have held the shares since April '09; not sure whether I should continue holding till it reaches its previous high which may take years. In your opinion this may not be a good idea, as coal will gradually be replaced by greener alternatives? I may have to reassess my investment in the company.



alexchia01      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 20:13) Posted:

Straits Asia is an Okay company.

The main reason why I choose this counter to short is its Business.

Straits Asia Business is Coal Mining, they mine and provide Coal to Power Generators in Indonesia.

Because Coal Mining is dangerous and Coal Burning pollutes the environment, Coal Burning Power Generators are slowly replaced by alternative power source.

As time goes by, the demand for Coal would decrease. However this is a long process, so in the short-term, there is no much effect on their Business. Long-term wise, their business would decrease gradually.

Unless they change their business model, long-term investors should avoid this counter. As a short-term traders, I would play on this weakness and go short.

Just my personal opinion. Don't have to take it too seriously.

Good luck.



kyjnjn      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 18:13) Posted:

Is this not a good share? Over valued? I am vested
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