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Popular, good to buy and hold for long term?
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ah_huat
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07-Sep-2011 22:56
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Anyway, Base on the track record of their other FCs, I personally don't think u'll be there that long too ah.. lol | ||||
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ah_huat
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07-Sep-2011 22:42
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first time ever, none of the Chou's in key mgmt? Huh? well, that said, hopefully none of their other key mgmt people, especially their new CFO, are as d**b as I deem them to be. My advice.... better talk to ur predecessors.... | ||||
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ah_huat
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07-Sep-2011 22:29
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Whoa! MD quit hah? Hopefully I had nothing to do with it hor. Seriously, I doubt. If I had to guess... probably some brush with e law or something.... Considering more than half of my " peng yu" have been caught one time or another for drink driving..... I guess I gotta go with that..... |
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ah_huat
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02-Sep-2011 17:02
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18 shelford.
What is e Potential sales proceed from e 6 unsold units? Since we do not know the sizes of the balance units, we’ll just have to use the average sales price of their 5 recently sold units to estimate.
By the way, this is a conservative estimate. Why? coz based on reported sales price in their financials and existing caveats lodge, I believe their super penthouse (5188sqft) and 1 other penthouse (3500+ sqft) remains unsold. If that’s e case, the expected proceeds would likely be higher than below.
$19.3m /5 units x 6 units = $$23.2m.
This project already TOP in Sept 2010. Potentially should get CSC around now.
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ah_huat
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02-Sep-2011 16:58
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By the way hor, please don’t just take my word for it. All u need to do is call their marketing agents at Huttons, set up appointment to see the property, and u will get a white hardcover brochure, and maybe even the site plan..... |
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ah_huat
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02-Sep-2011 16:50
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SO u still WONDERING why cannot SELL? |
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ah_huat
Member |
02-Sep-2011 16:47
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8 Raja? 8 Raja is a 13 storey development starting from the 3rd floor - 15th floor. The lowest floor unit and likely the cheapest unit has an asking price of $1,560 psf. That after a 8% discount. Their 8th floor unit is going for $1,750 psf (after discount). If I remember right, the highest floor goes for more than $2000 psf (after discount). And mind u, these are the bigger units hor. Small units? Should likely be priced more psf. Based on this, u can roughly estimate the average selling price after discount to be around $1,700 – 1800 psf. |
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ah_huat
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02-Sep-2011 16:37
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Average selling price of condos in the vicinity?
The Arte. Next to PIE expressway. 12 units betw May – Aug. Ave $1204 psf |
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ah_huat
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02-Sep-2011 16:30
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Let me again do a Mastercard Ad for properties just next to or very close to 8 Raja just for kicks. This is ONLY for caveats lodge recently between May to August this yr hor. The Arte: 12 units SOLD, Vista Residences: 18 units SOLD, 8 Raja: ZERO? ........ Priceless. So Why Leh? Why can't sell? Er, my dear Friends, have u though that perhaps it could be PRICING? |
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ah_huat
Member |
02-Sep-2011 16:18
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So why do u think their condos soooo difficult to sell? Is it location lousy? No Hor. 18 Shelford in centrally located at Adam rd. 8 Raja is in Balestier near Novena. These 2 locations are very sellable. Just look at the number of caveats lodge for neighbouring properties and u will realise that.
Below is a link to an Edge article date August 2010, which shows 368 Thomson, a 157 units CDL project just next to 8 Raja selling out in less than 1 month at $1,400 psf. It also shows there is massive demand in that area.
http://keithyip.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/1.pdf
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ah_huat
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02-Sep-2011 16:11
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Base on my estimations, approximately a third of 18 Shelford sqft space remain unsold. And based on caveat lodged, they have sold ZERO units at 8 Raja.
Why Leh?
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ah_huat
Member |
02-Sep-2011 16:02
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Ok, I m back. Let’s talk about their development properties. So u think they not dragging their feet mei?
My goodness, these redevelopment properties, i.e. 18 Shelford & 8 Raja were purchased in 2007 leh! Wah piang oei, 4 LONG YEARS ago! Not say the have MASSIVE landbank or what. Only 2 tiny plots.
Guys like Sim Lian, Chip Eng Seng, Lian Beng would have likely marketed their properties within 4 months from winning a tender hor. I think for these 3 guys, they haven’t win yet probably already got architectural drawings leow ah. Haha.
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ah_huat
Member |
01-Sep-2011 08:16
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Thks bro. Talking about them selling any more 18 Shelford and 8 Raja. Why do I get the feeling that they seem to be dragging their feet when it comes to marketing these? These areas hard to sell mei? No hor! So why? I don't know about them. But if it were me and I was muling a Privatisation. Guess what? The LAST THING I wanna do is to monitize these assets quickly lor. That's same as SHOOTING myself in the backside. lol I will talk about these next and the MASSIVE financial impact this would have on net cash if these were sold off.
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ivanignatius
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01-Sep-2011 03:20
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Hi, this is a very good standard of analysis on Popular: Ah Huat and the rest of you really know your stuff. Thanks for that, folks. I bought this a few years ago, and it has held up incredibly well except for a brief dip in the bottom of the crisis. And it loyally pays a big dividend. The privatisation angle is interesting, and when they sell the last Shelford units they'll have even more cash. All looks good for this counter. Reminds me a lot of Second Chance, another stock that is ignored by analysts, but pays nearly 10% a year in dividend. | ||||
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temp123
Senior |
01-Sep-2011 00:14
Yells: "." |
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Ya shrew.... F Shrew.
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ah_huat
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31-Aug-2011 17:15
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Yes bro, I agree with u too on the Hardworking & Shrew part. Especially the shrew part. lol
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ah_huat
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31-Aug-2011 16:43
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Sorry, what I meant was 2000 & 2001 Dot Com crisis... not 2001 & 2001. By the way, if anyone feel that my facts below are wrong, please feel free to correct me hor. thks |
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ah_huat
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31-Aug-2011 16:37
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So is this company resession proof? IMHO, they are more resession proof than most companies listed on the SGX. And from a INCOME GENERATING prespective. Almost BULLET PROOF. Why Leh? Simple. Let us look at e dividend yield during times of crisis and you will get my point. BTW, when I look at dividend, it is based on when it is paid rather than financial yr. Easier for me to compute. The below is based on current share price of 16 cents. 1. 1998 Asian Financial Crisis & stock market crash. 0.8cent dividend. 5% yield 2. 2001 & 2001 Dot Com crisis & stock market crash. 0.9cents dividend (each). 5.6% yield 3. 2003 SARS epidemic & stock market crash. 1.1cents. 6.9% yield 4. 2007 & 2008 sub-prime Global financial crisis & stock market crash. 1.2cents (each). 7.5% yield Average yield during crisis periods ..... 6.4%. Bullet Proof? F yeah! |
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andreytan
Veteran |
31-Aug-2011 15:43
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Yes,,,,agree with you, this is a good stock , the boss is honest and hardworking, and shrew. I meet him and talk with him at a club before.
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ah_huat
Member |
31-Aug-2011 15:32
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So is Popular a good dividend yielding stock? F yeah! In terms of dividend yield, Popular is in a class of it's own. Listed 14 years. Never failed to pay dividend a single year. EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Paid dividend twice yearly except for 2002. Average dividend yield of 6.6% based on current share price of 16 cents. PLUS, they achieved this with little or ZERO use of net debt. PLUS, at a acceptable payout ratio? Peng yu, where to find? If anyone can find me a company like that, TOMORROW I definately buy. Not joking hor. But pls hah, Reits and trust no count hor..... not when they are paying out 80 -90% of net income. IMHO, that's BS. lol |
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