Morning Gold & Silver Market Report ---- 11/7/2013

DATA BOOSTS DOLLAR, PRESSURES GOLD

A flurry of economic news caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen against the euro, in turn causing Precious Metals prices to fall. The fact that new jobless claims fell less than expected  wasn't enough to offset other news, even though the level of claims is still higher than end-of-summer levels, which suggests a weakening labor market. The U.S. gross domestic product  rose by 2.8 percent in the third quarter, which is the biggest increase in 18 months. The dollar's largest boost, however, came from the eurozone. The European Central Bank announced that  it would cut its interest rate  to a record low 0.25 percent, a move which brought the euro down against the dollar.

Some analysts are suggesting that tomorrow?s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be a  major factor in the Gold price's movement. Credit Suisse analyst Karim Cherif said. ''A negative footprint would re-launch a discussion on when Fed tapering will start.'' Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen pointed out that quantitative easing measures across the world appear to be more important to the Gold price than the dollar's strength. He said, ''We now have easing bias in all of the three major centers (Japan, Europe and the United States) and that could further delay any talk of tapering in the U.S., hence the support for Gold.''

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,304.90, Down $14.90.
• Silver, $21.57, Down $0.25.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - A Banquet of Consequences

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report  - 11/6/2013

• Gold, $1,319.20, Up $9.10.
• Silver, $21.85, Up $0.16.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report -- 11/6/2013

DOLLAR TRADE GIVES INVESTORS CLUES PALLADIUM COULD HIT $1,100

The Gold price is heading higher in morning trading after hitting a three-week low.  Analysts are still looking to the U.S. dollar for clues  as to Gold's movement. CME Group explained, ''Once again, the Gold market seemed to shift its market focus from a recent fear of U.S. tapering to a temporary period where positive data served to lift prices. The Gold trade might be expected to continue to watch for upbeat data and that could lift Gold prices if that in turn doesn't serve to lift the greenback.''

Palladium has enjoyed a nice year, and someone is finally noticing.  J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog, and founder and president of Eagle Bay Capital, LLC, believes that Palladium's rally isn't quite over and predicted a price of $1,100 per ounce in the longer term. Parets' technical analysis led him to this prediction, and he mentioned Palladium as ''one [Precious Metal] that doesn't get a lot of attention. I love that.''

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,319.20, Up $9.10.
• Silver, $21.93, Up $0.25.

Closing Gold & Silver Market ? 11/5/2013

MARKETS LITTLE CHANGED INVESTORS AWAIT QE TAPERING SIGNS

The  Gold price fell slightly today  to reach a two-week low as U.S. service industries grew fast enough to influence Federal Reserve officials to potentially begin tapering its quantitative easing measures.   ''The better-than-expected ISM number increases speculation whether tapering will begin in December or not,'' R.J. O'Brien & Associates? senior commodity broker Phil Streible said.  Strength in the U.S. dollar versus other leading world currencies along with bearish sentiment among short-term investors continues to put pressure on Precious Metals prices.

Along with minimal movement in Precious Metals markets,  U.S. stocks moved only slightly loweron Tuesday following two straight sessions of gains.   ''When the market gets to these levels, near all-time highs, it's almost like the whole market is saying, 'when is the next shoe going to drop,' so I just think it's nervous trade,'' TD Ameritrade's chief strategist JJ Kinahan said.  After reaching record highs last week and news of weak eurozone expansion projections for 2014, stocks are taking a breather.  Investors will await Friday's unemployment numbers to gain new insight into the future of the Fed?s stimulus program.

At 7:32 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,313.00, Up $2.90.
• Silver, $21.74, Down $0.05.

Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market  - 11/5/2013

• Gold, $1,312.40, Down $4.30.
• Silver, $21.74, Down $0.01.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report -- 11/5/2013

CURRENCY TRADE KEEPS GOLD, SILVER FLAT

Gold and Silver prices remain mostly flat in morning trading. The euro's relationship to the U.S. dollar continues to be the main factor on the Gold price. Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah explained, ''We've seen recently that the  dollar has been strengthening because the euro is weakening. The euro's appreciated by some 2 percent, and at the same time the Gold price has dropped by almost 3 percent. Looking forward, it will be interesting to see what the [European Central Bank] has to say, and whether they will continue with quantitative easing. We just have to wait and see.''

U.S. stock futures turned negative on  reports of poor economic growth in the eurozone. Alpari U.K.'s research analyst Joshua Mahony said, ''In terms of the eurozone picture, what you?re looking at really is the fact that people have bought into this recent rally a bit too much. It was a bit overbought in the first place.'' The main focus of investors now shifts to U.S. Federal Reserve officials set to speak Tuesday afternoon. Investors will have the chance to analyze the statements made for clues as to the timing of quantitative easing tapering, which has been a main factor in the Gold price of late

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,316.80, Up $0.10.
• Silver, $21.76, Up $0.02.

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report  -- 11/4/2013

• Gold, $1,316.20, Up $1.00.
• Silver, $21.70, Down $0.19.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report - 11/4/2013

POTENTIAL ECB STIMULUS PUSHES GOLD HIGHER

Loose monetary policy remains the focus of Gold traders today as rumors surrounding possible  monetary easing measures in the eurozone helped lift the yellow metal this morning.  The news that the European Central Bank (ECB) might begin its own stimulus program arrives on the heels of speculation that the Federal Reserve could initiate tapering measures as early as December.   ''The (U.S.) central bank is keeping markets guessing. Now December is back on the agenda,'' Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. ''I think it's unlikely, but the Fed statement and thinking suggests they haven't completely ruled that one out. That's really impacting the market, as well as the turnaround in the euro/dollar.'' As equities markets continue to notch record levels, short-term ETF traders remain bullish on Gold leaving physical buyers to await new direction on central bank monetary policy.

U.S. stock futures are on the rise this morning  following a fourth straight week of gains and anticipation of corporate earnings and employment figures.   'Even when the economic data hasn't been terribly good, that just pushes the tapering of quantitative easing further away, which means there will be more of this free money floating for longer,'' Standard Life Investments Ltd. strategist Frances Hudson said. That's ''one of the big drivers for equity markets.''   As both positive and negative news presently seem capable of driving U.S. stocks higher, investors await the time when traditional fundamentals will drive equities as opposed to loose monetary policy. 

At 9:46 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,320.20, Up $5.00.
• Silver, $21.86, Down $0.03.

Gold Trades Through Initial Support 1310 of Interest as a Support

Daily

 

Chart  Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT 

--''Gold  has exceeded the 9/30 high. The area that surrounds 1350 has been an important pivot (support/resistance) in recent months. If a pullback is going to materialize, then this is the place for it to happen.''

--''The minor trend should be considered higher against 1310 but a drop below there would present the swing trader with an opportunity to buy against the Oct low. Supports are 1294 and 1282.''

Trading Strategy:  Allow for at least several days to a week of sideways/down action and maybe from slightly higher prices before looking for a low.

LEVELS: 1282 1294 1310 | 1335 1352 1362

Weekly Gold & Silver Market Recap - 11/1/2013

GOLD STEADY AHEAD OF MONTHLY FED MEETING

The Gold price traded relatively flat Monday as Precious Metals investors speculated over the future of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. With the recent government shutdown in Washington and uninspiring economic figures fresh in the minds of Fed officials, many economists expected no deviation from the current level of stimulus following the Fed's two-day policy meeting later in the week. 'The longer-term outlook for Gold has turned a bit more positive recently because the tapering is not a foregone conclusion considering how the U.S. data has developed over the last couple of months,' Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said.  Gold has rallied six percent over the last two weeks  and is hovering near five week highs.

STRONGER DOLLAR WEIGHS ON GOLD QE EXPECTATIONS FUEL RECORD S& P FINISH

The Gold price suffered a mild drop from a five-week high Tuesday as the U.S. dollar rose against competing world currencies. 'A lack of fresh, bullish fundamental news is keeping buyers scarce,' one analyst said. 'The key ?outside markets' are also in a bearish daily posture for the Precious Metals - a firmer U.S. Dollar Index and weaker crude-oil prices.' Investors and analysts alike continued to ponder the future of the Federal Reserve's liberal quantitative easing (QE) policy.  The monthly two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting  began Tuesday. In the past, the meeting has been a platform for significant Fed policy announcements but few experts expected momentous news following Wednesday?s close. Most experts expected the bullion-friendly monetary easing program to continue until the second quarter of 2014.

FED STATEMENT SUPPORTS U.S. DOLLAR, PRESSURES GOLD

Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve met market expectations by not tapering its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program. Recent economic data reflecting weaker than expected numbers for both unemployment and consumer confidence put a halt to the cutback in fiscal policy. 'There is no explicit mention of the government shutdown or what impact it might have on the economy or the Fed's monetary policy,' Capital Economics chief U.S. economist Paul Ashworth said in a note. 'It is possible that Fed officials want to downplay the recent two-week closure and the potential for another shutdown early next year because they still intend to begin tapering the asset purchases at the FOMC meeting in December.' The Fed statement failed to acknowledge last month's government shutdown, which could push investors to be more concerned with the stability of the U.S. economy.

Gold dropped slightly during the Federal Reserve meeting once it was announced that economic activity is showing improvement. 'The dollar strength is keeping Gold under pressure,' Pension Partners LLC chief investment strategist Michael Gayed said in a telephone interview. 'The safe-haven premium is diminishing as the Fed sees signs of economic improvement.' However, the Fed made the decision to not taper for a specific reason, as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has said in the past that quantitative easing will not be cut back until economic conditions progress.

QE REDUCTION CONCERNS CAUSE DROP IN PRECIOUS METALS

Concerns that a reduction in the current scale of quantitative easing (QE) may come sooner than later pulled Precious Metals prices down Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus a basket of other currencies. Some market analysts believe a  potential taper of the Fed's stimulus measures could be announced as early as December  instead of the mid-2014 projections that have been forecast in recent weeks. However, most analysts are still anticipating a second quarter 2014 taper announcement. 'The question remains how much of this extended [quantitative easing] is Gold pricing already?' Standard Bank's Walter de Wet said. 'Given that the consensus view is for tapering to start later in 2014, we believe that Gold is already reflecting this more accommodative policy stance to a large degree.'

DOLLAR BOOSTED BY EUROZONE INFLATION

The Gold price's negative correlation to the U.S. dollar has held up since the Federal Reserve statement earlier in the week. Gold and Silver prices were lower during Friday trading as  news in the U.S. and the eurozone continue to boost the dollar. Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said, 'The weakness we have been seeing in Gold in the past two days is due to the after-effects of the [Federal Open Market Committee] statement and also the extremely low inflation rate in the eurozone.'

At 3:16 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,314.90, Down $10.80.
• Silver, $21.88, Down $0.04.

Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report - 11/1/2013

U.S. DOLLAR RALLIES, PRESSURES METALS

Precious Metals are relatively flat through mid-day trading.  Speculation that the  European Central Bank may lower the region's interest rates due to low inflation, along with a rallying U.S. dollar, has investors looking for direction.  When asked his thoughts on the dollar's performance, Atyant Capital Global Opportunities Fund lead portfolio manager Vedant Mimani said it 'has been quite strong in recent sessions, and that has created some pressure on Gold. ? As the economy shows signs of improvement, investors reason it may make more sense to deploy capital in growth (stocks) rather than insurance/asset protection (Gold).'

U.S. stocks continue to slide, with the S& P 500 extending losses for the third consecutive day. Paul Nolte, managing director at Dearborn Partners in Chicago, said, 'I think the markets are in a correction phase after a nice run from mid-September to late October.'   This could potentially boost Gold's safe-haven appeal for investors looking to diversify their portfolio.

At 3:04 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,314.00, Down $11.70.
• Silver, $21.85, Down $0.07.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report - 11/1/2013

DOLLAR BOOSTED BY EUROZONE INFLATION

The Gold price's negative correlation to the U.S. dollar has held up since the Federal Reserve statement earlier this week. Gold and Silver prices are lower in morning trading as  news in the U.S. and the eurozone continue to boost the dollar. Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said, 'The weakness we have been seeing in Gold in the past two days is due to the after-effects of the [Federal Open Market Committee] statement and also the extremely low inflation rate in the eurozone. These factors are very supportive of the dollar, which in turn weighed on precious metals prices.'

U.S. stock futures are pointing toward a higher open for Wall Street this morning after Chinese manufacturing data  came in at a positive level for the second month in a row. China's official purchasing managers index, which rose from 51.1 in September to 51.4, is an important gauge of the global economy. Frederic Neumann of HSBC said, 'The broad message here is that China's economy is still holding up. It's not exactly red hot but it's good enough for the time being. The third quarter may have been the peak [for growth], we're going to go sideways into the fourth quarter.'

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,316.60, Down $9.20.
• Silver, $21.96, Up $0.04.